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Beijing’s Propaganda War to Escape Blame For Chinese Virus Won’t Work

By
Nitin A. Gokhale;
-

NEW DELHI: “Although Wuhan city in China first reported the outbreak, there is no evidence that China is the source of the virus that caused COVID-19.”

The above is a press release from the Chinese embassy in Delhi, issued on Wednesday evening. It confirms the view that even as the world battles the Chinese virus pandemic, China is moving to lift restrictions on movement in Hubei province with fewer new infections being reported. Alongside, Beijing is launching a not-so-subtle propaganda campaign to build a narrative designed to shift the blame away from its original sin.

In the weeks preceding President Xi’s visit to Wuhan for instance, official Chinese propaganda channels had floated the news that the disease may not have originated within China. On February 27, Zhong Nanshan, the famous epidemiologist and now a member of Chinese Communist Party, suggested that though the SARS-CoV-2 was first discovered in China, it did not mean that it originated from China. The Chinese ambassador to South Africa, Ling Songtian, in his Twitter post on March 7 repeated the line. Lijian Zhao, an official spokesperson of the China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, tweeted on March 12 that “it might be the US Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan,” and went on to claim that the US owed an explanation to China. Zhao’s post picked up the cue from the sudden suspension of operations of an infectious disease laboratory at Fort Detrick, in Maryland. It was shut in July 2019 after the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a ‘cease and desist’ order.

The Chinese propaganda machinery went into overdrive on the origins of the pandemic, pointing to the Event 201 pandemic rehearsal held in the US in October last year. The presence of a 300-strong US contingent at the World Military Games in Wuhan at the same time, added fuel to their propaganda.

Along with the campaign to deflect questions pertaining to the origin of the virus in China, the efforts of the Chinese Communist Party to subtly ‘de-sinicize’ the virus, have also come to light. There are reports citing confidential instructions sent to Chinese embassies, to persuade those favourable to China never to mention the Chinese origin of the virus and to insist that where the virus originally came from is unknown. This fact is corroborated by the article published in the Global Times on March 12, wherein an editorial critique of the US mentions that both Chinese and foreign experts were trying to identify the origin of the COVID-19.

On Tuesday, Beijing urged India not to use “China” to describe the novel coronavirus, saying it could stigmatise the country and would be detrimental to international cooperation. State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Indian counterpart Dr. S Jaishankar, he hoped India was “opposed” to the “narrow mindset” of using the phrase “China virus”. There is however no indication that Jaishankar agreed or acceded to the request.

China is now also playing up its success in the containment of the outbreak especially as democratic countries like Italy, Spain and the US falter in their containment efforts. China has sent a number of medical teams to Iran, Iraq and Italy to support local epidemic prevention and control. When no European state answered Italy’s urgent appeal for medical equipment and protective gear, China sent 31 tonnes of medical relief materials that included 1,000 ventilators, 2 million masks, 100,000 respirators, 20,000 protective suits and 50,000 test kits. China also sent medical teams and 250,000 masks to Iran and sent supplies to Serbia, whose president dismissed European solidarity as a ‘fairy tale’ and proclaimed that the only country that can help is China.

The pandemic has also perceptively amplified the Trump administration’s instincts to go it alone and exposed just how unprepared Washington is to lead global response. As Washington falters, China’s chief asset in its pursuit of global leadership in fighting the coronavirus, is the perceived inadequacy and inward focus of US policy. Beijing understands that if it is seen as leading and Washington is seen as unable or unwilling to do so, this perception could fundamentally alter the United States position in global politics and the contest for leadership in the 21st century. A steady stream of propaganda articles, tweets and public messaging basically seeks to highlight the effectiveness of China’s model of domestic governance. China’s signature strength, efficiency and speed in this fight are being deliberately trumpeted which is also helping in airbrushing its earlier mismanagement of the crisis.

Thus, the Chinese propaganda machinery seems bent upon creating a narrative so as to distance China from questions pertaining to the origins of the virus. It also seeks to ignore or gloss over the fact that China’s initial mishandling allowed the outbreak to assume demonic proportions and reach every continent. As thousands of people die every day in other countries, China seeks to turn it into an opportunity that would catapult it to newer heights of international prominence and recognition. This is what other global powers and regional competitors like India should never lose sight of.

‘Unite, Form Team To Talk To Taliban Or Face Intensified Afghan Civil War’

By
Tolo News;
-
YouTube Video

KABUL: The U.S threat to cut up to 20 percent of its aid is a sign that it doesn’t see the current fractured Afghan government as essential to its goal of withdrawal: Laurel Miller, Director of Crisis Group’s Asia Programme tells Shabeer Ahmadi, the head of the foreign desk, Tolo News. Miller, who was former U.S. acting special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, says the door is open, but not for too long, for President Ashraf Ghani and Dr Abdullah Abdullah to sort out their differences and agree on an inclusive team to negotiate with the Taliban. Ms Miller warns that the political fracture in Kabul is feeding into the Taliban narrative of them being more coherent and cohesive. She warns that Washington’s signals are clear, it is looking at not only withdrawing troops but pulling out financially if Afghan politicians can’t bridge their differences. If that doesn’t happen and the situation deteriorates, Ms Miller says it’s a recipe for intensified civil war. It’s cruel to Afghans, she points out, that politicians are not united in the battle against the coronavirus. She doesn’t exclude the theoretical possibility of other politicians(without Ghani or Abdullah) talking to the Taliban if the situation deteriorates further.

Laurel Miller is presently director of Crisis Group’s Asia Programme. From 2013 to mid-2017, she was the deputy and then acting Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the U.S. Department of State. She was directly involved in peace negotiations in Bosnia, Kosovo, and Macedonia. Ms Miller has been a senior foreign policy expert at the RAND Corporation, the U.S. Institute of Peace and a Fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations.

(By arrangement with Tolo News)


‘India’s Corona Lockdown Correct, Italy’s Mistake Was A Gradual Process’

By
Amitabh P. Revi;
-
YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: Italy, with over 6,000 people felled by the coronavirus has more dead than anywhere in the world at this time. Fausto Biloslavo, a senior journalist with Il Giornale and Panorama warns the actual number of people infected may be ten times the official figure. In this conversation with StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P.Revi, he insists the all-India 21-day lockdown is necessary but not sufficient, if the lessons from Italy are to be learnt. Think of it, Italy has a population of about 60 million compared to India’s 1.3 billion. Citing photographs of long army convoys transporting coffins to the crematorium along empty streets, Fausto says it is necessary to tell and show graphic tales of death so people understand the gravity of what they’re up against. He describes how towns in Lombardy, at one point, were seeing one person dying every two minutes. Fausto stresses that preventing the health sector from collapsing is crucial, more so for India’s 1.3 billion population. A conflict reporter for over 40 years, Fausto knows this is a long, tough and deadly war against an invisible enemy. But, he adds, the disease has forced the rediscovery of the homeland and community — exemplified by widely seen viral videos of Italians singing across cities and towns in lockdown.

Fausto Biloslavo is a veteran Italian war journalist, and a prolific writer on modern conflicts. Over the last 35 years, he has covered conflicts first hand from Afghanistan since 1979, the Balkans, to the “forgotten wars” in Africa, Chechnya and Iraq – for a wide range of Italian print and broadcast media. In 2019 in Moscow, he was awarded RT’s Khaled Alkhateb memorial international award for best video journalism from a conflict zone for his reporting from the ongoing battle around Tripoli, between government forces and the troops of General Haftar.


India’s Response To COVID-19 Will Define Its Future Global Role

By
Vijay Gokhale;
-

PUNE: Time will tell if COVID-19 defines the remainder of the 21st century. History may not hold the answers because disruption on a global scale has not been witnessed before, not even during the two world wars of the 20th century. COVID-19 transcends all barriers, geographical, physical, social and cultural. It has become personal to every individual on this planet.

How and why it began will engage scientific and medical professionals for years. Each government and society will need to “feel’’ their way to finding a solution that fits. There are examples, good and bad — China, Italy, Singapore and South Korea. But India is none of these countries.

WHO executive director Michael J. Ryan has said that the future of COVID-19 to a greater extent, will be determined by what happens in densely populated large countries. But it is more than just that. How India tackles this public health crisis will not just determine the future of COVID-19, it will reshape our world.

In the past 30 years and more and especially after 1992, China’s spectacular rise has shaped our world more than any other development. Its technocrat-governed, state-owned enterprises driven, export-oriented manufacturing model powered by a disciplined workforce, has been the world’s envy. As it created wealth, it also spun myths about the superiority of its governance model, mainly to convince its own population why the communist model is better than other political systems, and later to the rest of the world. It came to be labelled as the ‘BEIJING CONSENSUS’.

To be fair, others added and admitted in propagating the superiority of the Chinese system. Those who prospered from China’s rise, extolled the virtues of clear policy making, workforce efficiency and ease of doing business. They were unmindful, some wilfully that China’s labour laws, banking systems, property rights and legal means were non-democratic, even draconian and illegal in their own countries. These businesses preached the virtues of the China system to their governments. The Tiananmen incident of 1989 became a footnote in world history, and human rights, simply an occasional point to be made by western leaders to their own population, as a token gesture of moral superiority.

The guardians of democracy — the world’s media — also played their part well. To be posted as a correspondent in China in the 1990s and 2000s was tantamount to a one-way ticket to success and glory. To be sure, there were some who wrote about the problems too but until a couple of years ago, it was well known in media circles in China that it was preferable to cohabit with the foreign ministry. To be invited to tea by the Chinese official spokesperson was as avoidable as COVID-19.

COVID-19 has dispelled the myths around the Beijing consensus. Try as the Chinese authorities might to showcase their system as having efficiently tackled a national emergency, even the remotest nation on earth has learned about their failure. This time it will not be so simple to white wash. After all it has adversely impacted the last person on earth.

Where does India come into this play? And why should it matter to the rest of the world? The easy answer is that we are one-sixth of humanity and our inability to prevail over COVID-19 would have global implications. But beyond this easy answer, is there a deeper meaning in the current global state-of-play? COVID-19 is not merely a medical war; it is a conflict of ideas.

We are a democracy.  Every five years we elect our leaders. National policy is made in Parliament after open debate. It can be freely criticised and also legally challenged. And for years on end, it has been regarded as an imperfect system when juxtaposed with China’s.  It has suited the Chinese.  It becomes easier for them to explain to their people when a neighbour as big, as populous, as underdeveloped as them, is unable to match China’s economic progress; that choosing one’s leaders may not be a better option.  The Chinese public, from time to time, disparages or mocks our democracy.  When they do so, it is from fear.  The fear that if democratic India can deliver, the rule of the Communist Party can be challenged.  India, not western democracies, is the real existential ideological threat. How we handle this crisis will determine our place in the world of the future.

The government response has been comprehensive and leader-driven. A central task force has been set up and COVID-19 has been declared a notified disaster in order to help states get access to funds. Travel advisories are in force; all movement domestically is being constrained. The prime minister’s call for a “Janata curfew” saw a national response.  In our fight against COVID-19, all institutions of the state have begun working in tandem and it is being done in the full glare of our media and our citizens. Far from hiding the enormity of the challenge, we are open. Even as we prepare to fully engage, discussion is being encouraged on how we should deal with the economic consequences of COVID-19. Media is in the frontline of this battle, not as “embedded correspondents’’, but as full partners in a democracy in reporting facts and in counselling the people.

We have a long and painful battle ahead. It calls for sustained leadership (through persuasion and not coercion) but equally it calls upon all citizens to follow.  It is for this reason that all citizens must heed the advice of the government and join the fight unconditionally.  For what is at stake is not merely our own health and economic well-being, but the very future of India in the world.

If we prevail in this fight, we will show to the rest of the world, that imperfect as it may be, democracy is the better method of delivering results in the face of an international crisis. And that it works with all its faults and imperfections. And that it can thrive even in countries where there are large and poor populations, as much as it does in the richer and less populated parts of the world. When 1.3 billion Indians can prove this by our deeds and actions, we will gain the world’s respect and we will emerge as a global leader. We could put to rest those who say democracy is a luxury for the richer part of the world. We can become a democratic model that is different from the western model, but as efficient and we can face the other 1.3 billion and say that this is an alternative available to them.

After COVID-19 is over and done with, the world may yet go back to doing business with China albeit differently, because its global manufacturing capacity will be needed for recovery and growth, but the world will have learned a lesson. Bold decisions on attracting foreign companies to India as well as a rethink of our stand on multilateral trading arrangements may be one way to bring back our economy and convince the world of our centrality in not only fighting the crisis but also rebuilding post-crisis.

China will put on its humanitarian face using its business icons and its markets to repair the damage in the West, while reaching deep into its pockets to buy support in Africa, Asia and elsewhere. Those who call them out may be pressured and possibly punished. They expect this from the West.  But if we speak out it will be different. For that reason alone, our voice will be important. Chinese reactions will be predictable, talk of third world and Asian solidarity will be mixed with hints, and even some action that they have the capacity to disrupt our economic recovery. They will act against us in multilateral bodies and activate the expected pressure points in the region. We have been down this road in recent times and faced their ire. We may have to do so again, but we will earn the world’s respect and demonstrate that we are ready for global leadership.

(The author retired recently as India’s Foreign Secretary. Views are personal)

U.S Cuts $1 Billion To Afghanistan, Calls Taliban Consistent

By
Amitabh P. Revi;
-

NEW DELHI: The U.S. has come down harshly on Afghan politicians after failing to end the political standoff between President Ashraf Ghani and his rival Abdullah Abdullah. At stake an immediate $1 billion cut in financial aid, the threat of doubling that next year, further aid reduction, reconsidering future donor pledges. For now, though, the U.S. is continuing its withdrawal of foreign troops according to the conditional timeline signed with the Taliban.

But the carrots are all there: A rollback of the cuts if the Afghan leaders form an inclusive government and take the peace process forward, and the Taliban continue to implement their part in the deal.

The $1 billion cut came after seven hours of talks between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Dr Abdullah Abdullah separately and together failed to get them agree on an inclusive government. The level of US frustration evident in the language of the American statement: deep regrets, disappointment, dishonour, leadership failure and direct threat to U.S national interests.

Dr Abdullah Abdullah meets Mike Pompeo at the Sapidar Palace, Kabul. March 23, 2020 (Photo Abdullah’s office)

Pompeo’s attempt at turning the clock back to 2014 has failed for now. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry had then brokered a deal for a largely dysfunctional five-year National Unity Government between the two Afghan leaders. Six years later, there is an internationally recognised president and a self-proclaimed one who feels he can’t give in for a third time to international pressure. Recall that Dr Abdullah had also pulled out of a second round of polls with then President Hamid Karzai in 2009.

But, the U.S. hasn’t closed the door just yet. Speaking to the media, Pompeo said, “I think they (Afghan leaders) are beginning to realize that we are intent upon executing the outlines of both the joint declaration with the Afghan Government and the document that we signed with the Taliban. So, I’m hopeful in the days ahead we’ll begin this process which will begin with the prisoner release and lead to getting an inclusive team together at the negotiating table, which is, in the end, the Afghans sitting together.” 

U.S. Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban political deputy Mullah Baradar sign the Doha deal. February 29, 2020 (Photo U.S. State Department)

So the message sinks in, Mike Pompeo followed his failed summits in Kabul with a meeting with the Taliban deputy political head Mullah Baradar and others at the Udeid Air Force Base in Qatar. On being asked whether the Taliban are also acting inconsistently with the agreement that they made, he said, “No. They are committed to reducing violence; they have largely done that, and then they are working towards delivering their team to the ultimate negotiations.”

The Taliban in a statement said, “The two discussed implementation of the agreement and speedy prisoners release so that IAT can begin and Afghans can reach a permanent ceasefire and peace including a future political system.”

Those negotiations called Intra-Afghan talks (IAT) can’t take place till Ghani and Abdullah reach a political settlement, an inclusive Afghan team for talks is agreed on and the deadlock over a prisoner swap is hammered out. While attacks on international forces have stopped since the February 29 agreements, heavy clashes have taken place between Afghan security forces and the Taliban in 14 of the 34 provinces.

While fears and misgivings on what that future political system will be are palpable, for now America’s actions Secretary Pompeo says are aimed to continue to ” Cajole, to coach, and to incentivise all Afghans to sit at the table.”

Chinese Virus: Beijing Continues To Remain Economical With The Truth

By
Niraj Srivastava;
-

NEW DELHI:: China is trying hard to deny that the COVID-19 virus originated in Wuhan, its commercial heartland in the east. The mandarins are also trying to change the narrative to suggest that the Chinese authorities did a heroic job in containing the spread of the virus inside the country, and was well placed to offer that help to other countries.

On both counts the Chinese have been economical with the truth. The Global Times reported on Jan. 1, 2020, that the Wuhan seafood market had been closed on that day “after 27 people were hospitalised in December 2019 with an unidentified strain of pneumonia.” It turned out that most of them were vendors at the market. The same paper reported on Feb. 22, 2020 that a “wider spread” of the virus had taken place at the same seafood market in “early December [2019].”

The question is what did the authorities do with the first outbreak in early December? Nothing it appears, with the result that more than three weeks were lost. The lockdown on Wuhan was imposed only on Jan. 23, resulting in the loss of another three weeks. So for about 7 to 8 weeks after the virus was first detected in Wuhan, the authorities appeared to have done nothing.

Add to that, the Chinese authorities harassed and silenced Dr. Li Wenliang who was the first to sound the alarm on the coronavirus on Dec. 30, 2019. Unfortunately, he died on Feb.7, 2020 after contracting the disease while working at the Wuhan Central Hospital.

Meanwhile, having controlled the coronavirus in their own country, China has accused the US of producing the virus, and is projecting the manner in which it went about controlling the virus as the example to be emulated by other countries.

What China understandably wishes to avoid addressing, is the problem it has created for the world, a problem of devastating proportions in terms of lives lost and economies damaged. The world should not let China off the hook by buying the false narrative it is trying to sell.

The world in general, and India in particular, should draw some important lessons from this crisis. Dependence on China for strategic goods such as Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API), for the pharma industry, should be ended. India imports around 70% of its API from China. Self-reliance should be created in this sector regardless of the cost involved. China’s leaders have a record of halting exports of strategic goods (such as rare earth minerals) to punish countries that defy them.

The coronavirus pandemic adds to the long list of criminal actions of the Chinese government. These have ranged from ruthless domestic suppression, support for rogue regimes, proliferation of nuclear weapons, flouting international conventions (as in the South China Sea) and stealing intellectual property. China should be held to account.

The writer is a former ambassador. Views are personal

Coronavirus Breathes Life Into Taliban-Afghan Prisoner Swap Talks On Skype Con-Call

By
Amitabh P. Revi;
-

NEW DELHI: The Coronavirus pandemic sweeping the globe and U.S. pressure has broken the deadlock in the Afghan peace process. In a first, Taliban and Afghan government teams have met– even if only online– to discuss a prisoner swap that has been stalled by hardened negotiating stances on both sides.

U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad broke the news in a series of tweets on Sunday night, “The US and Qatar facilitated the first Afghan government to Taliban technical talks on prisoner releases, via Skype video conferencing. Prisoner releases by both sides is an important step in the peace process, as stated in the US-Taliban agreement. And critical for humanitarian reasons,” the tweets said adding that “The over two-hour technical discussion was important, serious, and detailed. My thanks to all sides. Everyone clearly understands the coronavirus threat makes prisoner releases that much more urgent. All sides conveyed their strong commitment to a reduction of violence, intra-Afghan negotiations, and a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire. We have also agreed to a follow-on technical meeting in the next two days.”

The Taliban acknowledged the video conference but made it clear this is not the Intra-Afghan talks that were envisaged for March 10. Suhail Shaheen, spokesperson for the political office in Doha, Qatar tweeted, “A technical team of the Islamic Emirate for the release of prisoners talked with a technical team of the Kabul Administration in the presence of US and Qatari delegations via video conference. The talks solely centred on prisoners release for which the two teams are formed. Other issues will be dealt with during the Intra-Afghan negotiations.”

Zalmay Khalilzad and Mullah Baradar sign the Taliban-U.S. deal in Doha, February 29, 2020.

Those intra-Afghan talks (IAT) have not taken place for several reasons. The Taliban insists that the deal signed with the U.S. in Doha on February 29 requires a swap of 5,000 Taliban prisoners for 1,000 government detainees in their custody, before the IAT. No announcement has also come of who will be on the Afghan government, opposition, civil society and women’s team for talks with the Taliban.

President Ashraf Ghani speaking about the COVID-10 threat. March 22, 2020 (Photo Presidential Palace)

President Ashraf Ghani has proposed a phased, conditional release of prisoners over weeks, before and once talks start. The fear of a coronavirus outbreak in prisons is now playing its part in ironically breathing new life into the peace process. The COVID-19 virus has according to government figures, infected over three dozen Afghans, with one death officially reported as of Sunday night.

1st Vice President Amrullah Saleh (extreme right) in a meet on COVID-19. March 22,2020 (Photo Presidential Palace)

Ghani’s first Vice President, former spy chief Amrullah Saleh, also went on social media to say that “Measures and efforts are underway to thoroughly assess prisons, ensure safety of inmates against COVID-19 and release the low risk and vulnerable. The President awaits a technical report.” But he reiterated the government’s stand that, “People on death row, terrorists and high risk persons being a different issue.” The Presidential Palace in a statement also promised a planned draft for the release of prisoners and detainees on Monday.

Earlier, Tolo News quoted the head of prisoner affairs, Ahmad Rashid Totakhil as saying, “A number of inmates will be released because of the emergency situation. There should be categories in order to prevent a security problem to society. The Taliban and those who have committed crimes against national and international security are not included.”

The Taliban has stopped attacks on international forces as part of the peace deal signed with the U.S. But, government figures say 14 of the 34 provinces have witnessed heavy clashes between Afghan security forces and the Taliban over the last week.

Abdullah Abdullah March 17, 2020 (Photo Dr Abdullah’s Office)

With a stalled peace process, President Ghani in a televised address on Sunday called for unity in the face of the coronavirus. The Americans have also been pressing for a resolution of the political divide given that former Chief Executive Dr Abdullah Abdullah has proclaimed himself President. His aides say mediators are continuing efforts to break the political deadlock and his team has paused efforts to form an “inclusive” i.e. parallel government.

Wuhan Coronavirus: From Janata Curfew To ‘People’s’ Lockdown

By
Surya Gangadharan;
-

NEW DELHI: Who would have thought that in the 21st century a pandemic would sweep the world forcing governments to get their people off the streets. From China to Italy and Spain, lock downs have been and are being enforced with national armed forces being deployed for this purpose, with the exception (so far) of India.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call for a “Janata Curfew” or peoples curfew went off pretty much without a hitch on Sunday. It was nationwide even in states not ruled by the BJP, suggesting that Modi has not lost his touch when it comes to the public pulse. The “Janata Curfew” was criticised, notably by those who believe the government has not taken the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic seriously enough, that more restrictive measures are required, testing is inadequate and so on and so forth. There were also those who said government could have done better by providing first responders especially medical staff, with more equipment.

Whether the government’s response has been tardy is difficult to say at this point. The Union Ministry of Health puts the total number of virus infected cases at 329 with seven deaths. A figure which is small keeping in mind India’s large population, poor sanitation and hygiene and a creaky medical infrastructure.

But it’s important to note that Delhi is going into lock down from Monday (March 23) with the city’s borders with Uttar Pradesh and Haryana being sealed. Seventy four districts covering eight states and two Union Territories are also going into lock down. With officials insisting that only local transmission of the Wuhan coronavirus has taken place so far, and not the far more serious community transmission, the country it appears is still ahead of the infection curve. Therefore, a lock down of some of the worst infected districts (Kerala and Maharashtra have the highest number) makes sense. It will continue until March 31.

Lock downs will rely principally on peoples commitment to adjusting to a difficult situation by staying home and working from there. Essential services will continue including supply of basic foodstuffs and medicines. This will be achieved by allowing neighbourhood kirana stores and chemists to remain open. Public transport is being curtailed with no trains running, metro rail suspended and only skeleton bus services. Power supply will not be hit, post offices and banks will remain open and private hospitals will also pitch in with testing for virus infection and providing isolation wards.

Private offices will have to shut and while digital companies may face no problem, that may not be the case for other companies such as those in construction or factories.

At the end of nine days of lock down, the government at the Centre and states will review the situation. This is the tricky part. If during this period the infection and death toll shows a pronounced spike, it could suggest that the lock down has not stopped community transmission from happening. Then the fat would be in the fire with possibly enormous pressure on India’s medical infrastructure.

The nine days until March 31 are therefore crucial. The world has watched with some disbelief, India’s low infection and death rate when given the state of affairs, these figures should have been higher. How and why it escaped could possibly be traced to the decision to clamp down early on foreign travellers entering the country. It suggests India has been “ahead of the curve” when others like Italy, Spain and the US, slept through until it was too late.

STANDPOINT: Not China, India Will Be The Victor In A Reshaped Global Order

By
StratNews Global;
-

NEW DELHI: With the death toll rising every day and major cities in lockdown across the world, health and safety are rightly the primary concerns when dealing with the Wuhan coronavirus. But while doing so we cannot ignore the geopolitical undercurrents it has brought about. From President Donald Trump’s insistence on calling COVID-19 a “Chinese virus” to Beijing’s not so subtle messaging that it will be the global saviour post the virus, suggests a new phase in the latter’s determination to displace Washington and emerge World No.1.

No immediate change in the status quo is seen despite President Trump’s many missteps. His initial dismissal of the seriousness of the virus, his failure to coordinate a global response and banning of flights from Europe; allowed China to step in as saviour of the world. So far, this is a narrative that seems to have worked for the Dragon. Advantage Beijing.

But there is a flaw in this Chinese narrative. However much Beijing may hand out masks to Italy and other nations desperately in need of them, however much it may be integral to the global supply chain, there is one hurdle that remains — trust or lack of it.

China’s bid to downplay the seriousness of the virus and the fact that it allowed its chief whistle-blower Dr Li Wenliang to die, an act that caused anger and fury outside and even within the country, shows that however much Beijing may want to be the dominant world power, it won’t be able to.

Today’s world, which has moved away from Cold War binaries and also seems to be moving away from U.S. hegemony, is not looking to China as an alternative. No, a world which has been shaken and institutions cast adrift will look to a voice of reason and trust. This is where India can play a role.

In a recent address, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said India was ready to play a larger role in a post-globalisation world which is both “fractured” and “polarised.” The minister’s statement came as a series of initiatives carried out by Prime Minister Narendra Modi have caught the attention of the world.

From taking the initiative to host a video-conference of SAARC nations to discuss measures to contain the virus, to suggesting that the same be carried out at the upcoming G-20 conference, India showed itself willing to take the lead and more important, other nations were willing to listen.

Such initiatives may expand over time as India grows in confidence on the world stage but New Delhi must also be realistic about its vision. The challenge is to first manage the virus at home, help nations through building capacity and some aid, and then look to act post the threat has been reduced.

Given that New Delhi does not have the economic power of either the U.S. or China and given that a rising number of nations are turning inward, India must play the role of “influencer” in institutions such as the Quad (U.S., Japan, India & Australia), Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (Russia, China, India + five others) and so on. Multilateralism will be the most realistic and practical way forward in a world that seems to be done with a hegemonic global order.

Falling Oil Prices: Why A Strategic Opportunity Awaits India

By
Nitin A. Gokhale;
-
YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: Amidst the crisis comes an opportunity. While the global economy takes crippling blows day after day, thanks to the Chinese virus otherwise known as COVID-19, plummeting crude oil prices will enable India to not only partly make up for some financial deficit but also hedge for the future by beefing up its strategic oil reserves. On Simply Nitin this week, we trace the origins of a fall back option in the energy sector


‘China’s Aggression Seeks To Cover Up Its Original Sin’

By
Surya Gangadharan;
-
YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: China is using the Wuhan coronavirus in the same way it used its economic heft for geopolitical gain. Today, the world is reaching out to China for help even though it is responsible for the pandemic sweeping the world, says Arun K Singh, India’s former ambassador to the US and Israel. In an exclusive chat with Surya Gangadharan on StratNews Global’s flagship Talking Point show, he said an inward looking America under Donald Trump and its incoherent response to the coronavirus, stands in sharp contrast to Beijing’s aggression. With globalisation now in disarray, India will have to tread carefully with friends and allies while shoring up its strategic game against China.


Avoid Panic Buying, Rumor Mongering, Says PM Modi Amid Chinese Virus Pandemic

By
Surya Gangadharan;
-

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced an economic response task force under the finance minister, to deal with the crisis caused by the Chinese coronavirus. In a nationwide address broadcast by Doordarshan on Thursday evening, Modi said the task force would take into account all issues and consult all stakeholders before coming to any decision.

He also called for a “Janata Curfew” on Sunday from 7 am to 9 pm during which people should remain in their homes and avoid going out. But to give thanks to those at the forefront of fighting the Chinese coronavirus, he urged citizens to step out at 5 in the evening and loudly applaud the work of first responders.

The PM’s address seemed largely designed to keep the morale of the nation up, while cautioning citizens on how to behave. “In the last few days an atmosphere has grown that all is not well. But you should never think like this. Every individual must remain, careful, cautious and alert,” he said.

“The coronavirus is no ordinary virus,” he warned, “there is no cure for it, no vaccine, so there will be fear and concern. It is no ordinary virus and to imagine it will not impact us is wrong. To tackle it we must have determination and patience.”

He advised people to practise social distancing, which he described as “necessary and helpful.” Avoid crowds, he urged. Those who think they will never catch the infection and roam around at will are doing injustice to themselves and their families.

“So i urge you that for the next few weeks, step out only if it is necessary. Work from home as far as possible. Those who are in government, in hospitals, media people, they have to do their job but others must avoid public contact and isolate themselves. Also in our families, senior citizens must not step out of the home.”

Avoid going to hospitals unless it is absoutely necessary, he said. This would help lessen the pressure on them. If non-essential surgery can be avoided or postponed, do so immediately.

He cautioned against panic buying of essential commodities. Government, he said, was making every effort to ensure there would be no shortage of milk and other food items. Avoid rumour mongering, he advised, and listen to what your local authorities are telling you.

Tackling Chinese Virus: No International Flights For A Week; PM Appeals for Social Distancing

By
Parul Chandra;
-

NEW DELHI: India is shutting out the world. From Sunday (March 22), no international commercial flight will be allowed into the country for a week. The flight ban is proof (if any were required) that the government will take no chances, given the rising incidence of Chinese virus infection in many parts of the world.

Indian nationals wishing to return to the country from abroad are being advised to stay put and remain in touch with the resident Indian mission for any help. This will apply to the 255 Indian pilgrims in Iran who have tested positive for the virus. The Indian embassy in Tehran tweeted that a “wellness facility” has been set up for them in the holy city of Qom, with the cooperation of local health authorities, “to care and undertake 24/7 supervision of infected Indian pilgrims”.

The death of one Indian national was reported from Iran on Thursday. External affairs ministry officials conceded that the situation there is “very severe and widespread”.

As far as the domestic situation is concerned, the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare on Thursday said the total number of people infected with the virus was 149 with the total number of deaths at four. Maharashtra led the pack with 44 persons including three foreign nationals testing positive.

It was clarified that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call for a ‘Janata Curfew’, to be observed from 7 am to 9 pm on Sunday, was actually to encourage “social distancing” and was not a lockdown. Describing “lockdown” as an “inappropriate word”, joint secretary in the health ministry Luv Agarwal said the steps being taken were “to prepare for an evolving global scenario”.

Medical experts say social distancing is vital to prevent the community transmission stage of the virus. The government says there is no evidence so far to suggest community transmission. But the government has been gradually scaling up measures to check the pandemic. The elderly are being advised to stay indoors as they are seen as more vulnerable to infection. State governments have been advised to issue suitable directions so those above 65 stay at home. The same advice has been given for children aged below 10.

Other than this, the government wants states to enforce the work-from-home dictum within the private sector, and for the railways and civil aviation sector to suspend all concessional travel to discourage movement.

While India battles the virus at home, it is reaching out to neighbours. As a follow-up of PM’s video conference with SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) leaders on March 15, one million dollars worth of assistance has been sought and supplies have already been dispatched to the Maldives and Bhutan.

U.S. Pushes for Sooner Release of Taliban Prisoners

By
Tolo News;
-

KABUL: The U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad, on Wednesday said the United States would like to see prisoner releases begin as soon as possible in line with the U.S.-Taliban peace agreement.

“No prisoners have been released to date despite the commitment to do so expressed by both sides,” Khalilzad added in a series of tweets on Wednesday as the Taliban are trying to press Washington to facilitate the prisoners release to happen in the near future.

“Coronavirus makes prisoner releases urgent; time is of the essence. We are committed to do our part and after consultation with all relevant sides, the United States understands,” Khalilzad said. The U.S. envoy noted that technical teams from both sides can work together and focus on technical steps to begin prisoner releases as soon as possible, adding “I will participate in the initial meetings.”

“While preferable to meet face-to-face, coronavirus and the resulting travel restrictions likely requires virtual engagement for now; we call on all sides to avoid provocative media statements,” Khalilzad said. He added that “the Taliban commit that released prisoners will abide by the commitments made in the peace agreement and not return to the battlefield”.

“A violation will undermine the peace process. The time has come to move forward on prisoner releases,” Khalilzad concluded.

The U.S.-Taliban deal signed in Doha, Qatar on February 28 calls for the release of up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners to open the way for intra-Afghan negotiations. The deadline for the release was March 10. President Ghani has agreed to release 1,500 prisoners, gradually, ahead of the intra-Afghan negotiations.

The Taliban has opposed this plan by the Afghan government. This comes as Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid this week posted a video showing their fighters in military training. The group said the preparations are for removing barriers but he did not clarify further.

Analysts said preconditions by President Ashraf Ghani will push the Taliban to continue the war.

“We see that Mr. Mohammad Ashraf Ghani has set some conditions for the release of Taliban prisoners. This pushes the Taliban for war,” said Faiz Mohammad Zaland, a university lecturer.

“The Afghan government has no option but to release Taliban prisoners based on the (U.S.-Taliban) deal,” said Maqdam Amin, an analyst.

 

(By arrangement with Tolo News)

Food For Thought: India’s 75,000-Tonne Wheat Aid To Afghanistan To Tide Over Chinese Virus Crisis

By
Amitabh P. Revi;
-

NEW DELHI: India, once again, is the first responder to a potential food crisis post the Chinese virus outbreak in Afghanistan. India’s Ambassador Vinay Kumar met the Afghan Deputy Minister for Economic Cooperation Mirwais Nab and discussed the recent spurt in food prices in Afghanistan. New Delhi is donating 75,000 tonnes of wheat. To facilitate its transportation, India’s envoy has assured Kabul that New Delhi will facilitate an Afghan delegation’s trip despite restrictions imposed on travel. On March 17, India banned the entry of passengers from Afghanistan till the month-end.

 

Indian envoy Vinay Kumar (left) with Afghan Deputy Economic Minister Mirwais Nab. (Photo: Afghan MFA)

 

With traders hoarding goods to profit from the threat of the virus, prices of food have skyrocketed in Kabul. Tolo News reports that the cost of a 49 kg bag of flour has nearly tripled from 900 Afghanis ($11) to 2,500 ($32). Pakistan and Uzbekistan have even cut supply lines because of the virus. Afghanistan imports its flour mostly from Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Pakistan. As of Thursday, Afghanistan officially has two dozen people who have tested positive for the virus but there are fears that the numbers are under-reported. The porous western province of Herat bordering Iran and the country’s southern and eastern borders with Pakistan are expected to raise the number of cases.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced a $10 million COVID-19 emergency fund for SAARC countries on March 15. President Ashraf Ghani, in a televised address to the nation on Wednesday ordered the country’s the borders to remain open 24 hours a day for imports. He also announced the distribution of 24,000 tonnes of wheat from the government’s strategic reserves to vulnerable people and the import of cooking oil.

Last year, India sent almost two million tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan from the Iranian port of Chabahar, bypassing Pakistan.

 

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani reviews preparations for tackling the Chinese virus threat, in a meeting with top officials. (Photo: Presidential Palace)

 

The Western Afghan province of Herat, which shares a border with Iran, has the country’s biggest cluster of cases. Many of those who have tested positive for the virus have returned from Iran, which has been badly hit by the pandemic. The Torkham crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan was also closed this week, stopping the transport of goods. Only Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan now allow goods to be transported to and from Afghanistan. India, despite not bordering Afghanistan, has bucked that trend.

Ramp Up Random Tests To Gauge Extent Of Chinese Virus Infections: Health Experts

By
Parul Chandra;
-

NEW DELHI: Is the number of random samples being tested by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) adequate to rule out community transmission of the Chinese virus? No, say many community health specialists, prescribing a drastic increase in the numbers for a clearer assessment of whether community transmission has begun.

So far, the government has maintained that there has been no community transmission and the country is in Stage II (local transmission) of the outbreak. Community transmission would mean India would have entered Stage-III but for now, the situation is “fluid and evolving and our knowledge base is inadequate,” said a doctor. By Wednesday evening, the number of persons who had tested positive for the virus stood at 151.

“To check for community transmission, we need to have more samples. We have enough laboratory capacity in the country,” medical experts told StratNews Global, warning that the next two weeks will be crucial.

A doctor who specialises in community medicine said: “Ä narrow case definition for testing where only those who have come in from abroad and persons who have come in contact with them means we could be missing cases”. This, he said, can have two implications. “Either, we are underestimating the burden with some guesstimates saying the actual number of positive cases in India could be between five and 10 times higher. Or, more importantly, these undetected cases could spread the infection.”

ICMR director-general Dr Balram Bhargava told the media on Tuesday that 1,020 random samples were collected between March 1 and 15. And the results of 500 samples were negative.

However, community health experts insisted that “the screening base has to be enlarged to detect community transmission and to undertake appropriate containment measures. Depending on the existing laboratory capacity, the numbers being screened have to be increased”. They also appreciated the government’s decision to allow testing for the Chinese virus by private laboratories. They hope the private healthcare sector will rise to the occasion and treat patients if the need arises, while charging government rates.

There is also concern about the resources required for “contact tracing”, i.e. trying to track persons who may have come in contact with a person who has tested positive. “The exercise is resource intensive and if we expand testing, we will have to expand contact tracing and quarantine facilities too,” a doctor admitted. “The government, therefore, is taking the middle path on testing.”

Health experts are worried that if the virus were to spread in India in the manner it has in Italy and Iran, it could put huge strain on public health infrastructure. Community testing holds out hope of preventing this from happening.

How The Chinese Coronavirus Will Impact The Global Economy

By
Ashwin Ahmad;
-

NEW DELHI: As the Wuhan coronavirus continues its bloody sweep through the world, there are fears of an economic bloodbath that has not been seen since the 2008 recession. From record stock market crashes to the latest estimate by the United Nations of a $2 trillion loss to the global economy, many believe the economic impact could be as catastrophic as the Great Depression of the last century.

 

No predictions, please

However, some economists argue that such predictions are misplaced. Rakesh Mohan, professor and chairperson (research) at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT) says:

“Figures or predictions make no sense at this time because it all depends on how quickly we can contain COV-19. Also, no economic data can account for or predict the state of the economy where there is a “fear psychosis” amongst the population. What we can say for sure is that if the virus were to last six months, the economic impact will be far beyond the 2008 global recession and put us into unchartered territory.”

 

The China Story

Rakesh Mohan believes China has an advantage given that the virus has passed its peak there, and the government is pushing hard to get the wheels of the economy moving. But more than that, China is integral to the global supply chain accounting for 20% of global gross output today (it was 4% in 1995). It is one of the world’s highest exporters with 13% of market share and is the largest importing partner for many developing nations.

If the virus was to continue, China will benefit from increased sales of computers and other devices as people continue to work-from-home. Important to note that China (and Southeast Asia) are major exporters of computers and telecommunications related equipment. Add to that electrical machinery, plastics, vehicles and even furniture. Estimates show that China produces or was in direct control of 50 per cent of the world’s masks, even before the virus set in, and since then production has expanded 12-fold to take advantage of worldwide shortages.

“If China decides to turn the calamity into an opportunity it could mean chaos for the rest of the world,” says Mohan, hinting that Beijing could leverage its sole supplier position to demand trade concessions, market access or even use it for political blackmail. It underscores the need for alternative supply lines but these will take time to build and will add to cost.

 

The India Story

While the scenario is uncertain economists remain positive about India retaining its growth. India contributes 1.6-1.7 per cent of world exports which is just above the global average – this trend has remained constant for the past eight to nine years – and looks likely to continue.

Another good news for the government is on oil. “The crash in the market of global oil prices to below $30 a barrel is a bonanza for the government. The government can reduce its import bill, pass on lower prices to the consumer, and help rescue the beleaguered aviation and tourism industry – who have been hit by COV-19,” says Mohan. This could be especially useful given the government has already been considering a change on GST on aviation turbine fuel – a high cost component for airlines.

The crash in oil prices benefits India domestically but it can also help New Delhi abroad given India is one of the top ten exporters of refined petroleum products with markets in the US, UK, Australia, Iraq and even the UAE

“Our refined oil exports will continue if global demand for the automotive and other related industries continues. If the global automotive industry market goes down that could affect demand,” says Mohan

However, the government’s prompt action in dealing with the Chinese virus at home along with the oil bonanza suggest that the Indian economy is not likely, as of now, to be as impacted by the Wuhan virus as is being seen in other parts of the world. However, given the global uncertainty, the government – in conjunction with industry leaders – must continue to put more emphasis on ‘Make in India,’ boost consumer spending and ensure that SME, that are the backbone of its industry and employ large numbers of people, are given the support they need to ensure the economy grows. It is the only shield from the economic tsunami unleashed by the Wuhan virus.

EU Wades Into German-US Covid-19 Spat, Offers Incentives To ‘Scale Up’ Efforts To Find Cure

By
Sputnik;
-

MOSCOW: Brussels has weighed in on the diplomatic spat between Germany and the U.S. over CureVac—the company developing a vaccine against the COVID-19 novel coronavirus.

The European Commission said Monday it would offer the company based in the German town of Tübingen a guaranteed loan to a tune of €80 million “to scale up development and production of a vaccine against the coronavirus in Europe.”

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, Education and Youth, Mariya Gabriel, and Vice-President of the European Investment Bank (EIB) Ambroise Fayolle discussed the issue with CureVac management via videoconference, according to an official press statement.

The company’s Chief Executive, Franz-Werner Haas, denied in the videocall that CureVac had received a takeover bid from the United States. He also rejected allegations that the company had been requested to reserve production for the United States and that its scientific personnel were offered jobs in the U.S.

The suggested support would come in the framework of the InnovFin Infectious Disease Finance Facility( IDFF) under the Horizon 2020 programme. The IDFF provides financial products to innovative companies actively developing innovative vaccines, medical and diagnostic devices for combatting infectious diseases.

Clinical trial costs, development of prototypes, pre-clinical R&D costs and working capital requirement can be included in the financing, available directly through the European Investment Bank.

“In this public health crisis it is of utmost importance that we support our leading researchers and tech companies. We are determined to provide CureVac with the financing it needs to quickly scale up development and production of a vaccine against the Coronavirus. I am proud that we have leading companies like CureVac in the EU. Their home is here. But their vaccines will benefit everyone, in Europe and beyond,” said Ursula von der Leyen.

 

Biotech Startup On COVID-19 Frontlines

CureVac, a German biopharmaceutical company founded in 2000, is known to have developed novel technology to render vaccines stable without refrigeration.

Preliminary studies have also suggested the proprietary technology holds potential for rapid response to COVID-19. The little-known German biotech outfit has already started its coronavirus vaccine development program, hoping to launch clinical testing by June 2020.

 

U.S.-German Vaccine Spat

CureVac hit the headlines after a bombshell report that broke the past weekend in German weekly Welt am Sonntag, claiming that U.S. President Donald Trump was attempting to “poach” exclusive rights to the business’s coronavirus vaccine. Die Welt, citing sources close to the German government, reported the vaccine would be “only for the United States”, despite Germany trying to present its offers to CureVac, which has branches in Germany’s Frankfurt and Boston, Massachusetts in the U.S.

The news stoked outrage in Germany, with Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn appearing on ZDF program Berlin Direkt on Sunday night to say that in the case of any successful trials, the vaccine would be made available to everyone who needs it.

Earlier, CureVac said in a press release that the company’s CEO Daniel Menichella had been summoned to the White House on March 2 to discuss the coronavirus vaccine with Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force.

Days later, on March 11, CureVac announced shifts in its top management, with Manichella being replaced by company founder Ingmar Hoerr.

CureVac majority owner, billionaire philanthropist Dietmar Hopp, sought to allay concerns on Monday, assuring that the business would stay in Germany. However, he seemed to confirm that Trump had sought to secure exclusivity rights.

When asked why he had rejected an alleged offer by Trump worth €1 billion, Hopp was quoted by Germany’s Sport1 as saying: “It is not possible that a German company develops the vaccine and that it is used exclusively in the U.S. That was not an option for me”.

The Tübingen-based company denied it was approached with an offer. In a Twitter statement on March 16, CureVac dismissed allegations made in the press, adding it “had not received an offer before, during and since the Task Force meeting in the White House.”

There has been no official U.S. statement in response to the reports, while two senior officials allegedly dismissed some of the German news accounts of the story as “overblown”.

The current reports come as COVID-19 has spread to over 140 countries and territories, infecting more than 185,000 people with over 7,300 dead, prompting the World Health Organization to declare it a global pandemic.

 

By arrangement with Sputnik

High Food Prices Cause Public Outcry

By
Tolo News;
-

KABUL: A number of Afghans have accused businessmen of using the coronavirus threat to sell goods at unreasonably high prices and have called upon the government to act against the offenders.

Over the past two days, many in Kabul have been out shopping for food to guard against possible shortages. But fear of the coronavirus driving people to stock up on food items has caused prices to rise.

“What type government is this? They (government) say they want to control the market price but it is a useless control, they (government officials) just come and get an assurance from the shopkeeper that he will not sell high, but when they ask to see the receipts, the businessmen says – I don’t have any,” said Haji Khateb, a resident of Kabul.

“When the market controllers are here the price is good, and they sell flour for about 1,900 and 2,000 afghanis, but when the controller leaves the area, then again every shopkeeper starts selling what they want,” said Naeem Qureshi, another resident of Kabul.

Although authorities in charge of market regulation have made some efforts, those have not impacted food prices so far. A number of residents protested in front of the Kabul municipality against traders who price-gouge and hoard—a crime in Afghanistan. “If Corona doesn’t kill us today, be sure that starvation will,” said Shahram Rahmani, a Kabul resident.

“Greater profits and the use of people’s mental state for greater profits, is a crime and is punishable by the penal code,” said Arash Shaherpor, a lawyer.

President Ashraf Ghani says to stabilize the market, he has ordered 24,000 tons of wheat to be distributed to needy people from the state reserves. The borders will be open 24 hours a day for imports, he said.

“Today I ordered the distribution of 24,000 tons of wheat from government strategic reserves to vulnerable people, and the Afghan government has decided to allow about one thousand wagons of cooking oil to be available in our northern ports as soon as possible…,” said Ghani.

“One hundred and fifty wagons are the only flour now available in Mazar-e-Sharif… and each wagon has more than one hundred and fifty tons of flour and also seven thousand tons of oil in Mazar-e-Sharif city,” said Khanjan Alkozai, member of the Board of Directors of the Chamber of Commerce and Investment.

In the past two days, prices of foodstuff have skyrocketed, especially in Kabul. A 50 kg pack of flour that used to cost 1,600 afghanis a few days ago is now selling for up to 2,500 afghanis.

(By arrangement with Tolo News)

Coronavirus: The Latest Setback For An Already Gloomy Global Economy

By
Ashwin Ahmad;
-

NEW DELHI: Already reeling under protectionism and US-promoted unilateralism, global trade has been dealt a further blow by coronavirus. Estimates by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) show the COVID-19 outbreak is likely to result in $50 billion decrease in exports across the globe with the most affected being the European Union ($15.6 billion), United States ($5.8 billion) and Japan ($5.2 billion). India too is one of the top 15 most economies to be affected with the loss of trade coming to $348 million.

Experts agree that the COVID-19 outbreak has made an already troubled trade scenario even worse. Last year, railing against what he saw as “biased” decisions by the international trading body, US president Donald Trump had put the appellate body of the WTO on “life support” ensuring that the world body would find it more difficult to adjudicate and resolve disputes.

Senior Indian trade officials say such aggressive moves by the US are a bid to stop the “rise of the rest” – the rest being India, China and South Africa and ensure that the world could return to lop-sided bilateral trade deals which favour America.

“The US has lost many cases at the WTO’s appellate body which is why they want to get rid of it. They have been very candid about their motives. Many of their trade representatives have stated that believe that they went too far in accepting WTO reforms post 9/11. So, they want to draw back,” says a senior Indian trade official.

Indian trade experts believe that the US is already pursuing this agenda by funding committees and global think-tanks who are committed to WTO reform. Such moves come at a time when there has already been a severe “backlash” against globalisation in the world. The steel industry, many of whose workers are Trump supporters, have been hit hard. This trend is also evident in Europe with the advent of Brexit and even in Asia where high tariff and non-tariff barriers have been put up to protect certain sectors in most of the major countries here.

The move towards increasing protectionism and the fact that the WTO’s future itself could be at stake going forward made the upcoming ministerial conference in Kazakhstan more urgent. However, the COVID-19 outbreak has caused the cancellation of the conference scheduled for June and other meetings look unlikely as of now. This has led to fears that the WTO will remain weakened and the fight between the US against the “rise of the rest” will only grow.

Senior trade officials say this is already proving to be the case. “President Trump went to Davos and affirmed his commitment to free trade but when he returned, he imposed tariffs on hundreds on goods. Prime Minister Modi took spoke about opening up the Indian economy but we saw tariffs increase in the Budget. It seems today that good liberal economics is not good politics.”

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