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Tackling COVID-19: ‘Critical To Protect The Protectors’

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NEW DELHI: The COVID-19 pandemic means it’s time for prudence not panic, science not stigma, facts not fear, says Dr Niteen Wairagkar, a global pandemic and new viral diseases R&D expert in conversation with StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P. Revi on dealing with the ‘infodemic on the pandemic’ and individual and institutional dos and don’ts. Dr Wairagkar stresses governments need to prepare for the ‘best reasonable worst possible scenario’ to stay ahead of the curve.

On examples like Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau self-isolating, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro testing negative and European Army Chiefs being quarantined as well as the criticality of health, other essential services and medical waste disposal in the time of the virus, Dr Wairagkar elaborates on the need to focus on ‘protecting the protectors’. The global pandemic expert also talks about the need to activate, review, revise and strengthen business continuity plans for a country’s strategic forces and the need to look ahead so medical infrastructure and resources can cope.
On the lessons learnt from different countries, Dr Wairagkar says it’s time for all of us to ask “what can we do for the country, not what the country can do for us”.

He also outlines the unprecedented efforts towards a vaccine and the steps needed for efficiency, safety and ultimately ramping up production to protect people around the globe

Dr. Niteen Wairagkar is a physician-scientist and a global Health professional focused on vaccines and pandemic preparedness. He has worked with global research and philanthropy organizations (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, World Health Organization, CEPI, US-CDC and Indian Council of Medical Research) on global health issues and emerging viral diseases. He is credited with coordinating and accelerating global Research & Development of the first-ever maternal RSV vaccine, maternal influenza vaccines, pandemic H1N1 vaccine, Universal influenza vaccines, and Measles aerosol vaccine. A firm believer of the immense power of vaccines and a strong proponent of maternal and neonatal immunization strategy, he would like to see the majority of vaccine-preventable diseases eradicated in his lifetime.


India Announces Covid-19 Fund, Pak Seeks to Undermine SAARC Efforts

NEW DELHI: India has taken the lead in announcing a $10 million Covid-19 Emergency Fund for use by its South Asian neighbours at an unprecedented video conference with South Asian heads of state on Sunday evening. Pakistan as expected played the spoiler, sending a low-ranking minister of state for health who compounded it by linking Kashmir to the pandemic and seeking to undermine a region-wise cooperative effort to fight the Coronavirus.

Pakistan’s Dr Zafar Mirza called for lifting all restrictions in Kashmir, in order he claimed, to better deal with the threat of the virus. India responded saying “It is a pity that they have to be churlish on an issue that’s important to the region.. We’ve demonstrated that we have the will to to come together. Their (Pakistan’s) remarks were unwarranted and out of context.”

But the mood was otherwise positive. The Covid-19 Emergency Fund should help SAARC members, especially the smaller ones like Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Maldives to deal with the debilitating impact of the coronavirus both on people and economies. Each state can make voluntary contributions to the fund which will be coordinated by Indian foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla.

The embassies of SAARC member-nations will serve as contact points, sources said adding that “No structure has been proposed at present as the idea is to make it as effective as possible and as rapidly as possible.”

Modi told SAARC leaders they could avail of India’s Rapid Response Teams comprising doctors and specialists along with testing kits and other equipment, to deal with the Covid-19 scourge. “They will be on stand-by, to be placed at your disposal, if required,” he said.

He also offered to share with the SAARC nations the software for a Disease Surveillance Portal that would enable better tracing of possible carriers of the coronavirus and people they may have been in contact with. Modi suggested that a common research platform be created “to coordinate research on controlling epidemic diseases within the South Asian region.”

Clearly, while offering a helping hand India was also seeking to consolidate its position as the largest and most powerful nation in this grouping — one that was willing to assist its neighbours despite deficiencies and gaps in its own domestic battle to contain the spread of Covid-19. Sources admitted that, “We have some shortages within our own country. We have to first look after our own people.”

But the idea was also to “reach out to our neighbours with whom we have common, porous borders, help smaller countries with fewer resources and also because we have our own leadership role in the region.” As for using the SAARC platform, the sources said ”Even though SAARC has been on the back-burner, it was the rational and logical platform because of the challenges we’re facing.”

Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa suggested that SAARC countries come up with a mechanism to assist their economies. He said a SAARC ministerial group could be set up to coordinate regional efforts on Covid-19.

Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina said it was “important to establish an institution to fight any public health threats in the region” and expressed her country’s willingness to host such an institution.

Nepal’s PM KP Sharma Oli, discharged just the other day from hospital after a kidney transplant, called for a multi-agency coordination committee to counter Covid-19.  A surgeon himself, Bhutanese PM Dr Lotay Tshering said dealing with the coronavirus “is an uphill task because you don’t really see your enemy”. Noting that it was “important for all of us to be on the same page”, he warned that, “We’re concerned about the economic impact of the disease.”

Maldivian President Ibu Solih said tourism in his country had been hit hard following the Covid-19 outbreak with a 14% drop in February, and over 22% in the current month. Overall, he expected tourist arrivals to drop by 35% this year since bulk of their tourists came from China and Italy.

Afghan president Ashraf Ghani while noting that India is an important member of both SAARC and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation), wondered if these two groupings could coordinate to see if the Chinese experience in tackling Covid-19 could be replicated by SAARC members.

RCEP: Is India Being Unduly Protectionist?

NEW DELHI: Blame it on the Coronavirus. It looks like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which brings together 15 countries into a free trading arrangement, may not be signed this year given the manner in which the global economy has been upended by the virus.

“Barring China which has an interest in more open markets given its advantage of a huge manufacturing and industrial base, and Vietnam, currently chair of ASEAN, most other RCEP hopefuls don’t appear that keen on signing,” said a senior Indian diplomat. “The sentiment flows from a sense of being economically vulnerable; how do governments in these countries justify opening up their economies to more competition at a time like the present one?”

This is not to say work towards signing the agreement is not going on. In fact, trade officials say the “legal scrubbing” is under way. This is where various points in the RCEP agreement are clarified, harmonised and finalised. The process is expected to gather pace by the middle of the year with the RCEP agreement ready for signing by the end of the year (minus India of course).

But that far and no farther. At least that’s how things look at this point. On the other hand, if the Coronavirus is contained and the world’s major economies show an uptick, the chances for RCEP brighten although this will change India’s stand of not signing. But some trade officials and diplomats StratNews Global spoke to remain hopeful. They say India’s concerns relating to Chinese imports overwhelming local industry and the need to protect its farmers among others are valid. But RCEP did not require India to open its markets immediately, rather it was to be phased over 20 years and in the case of some sectors, even 30 years.

“Our minister says that our concerns have been conveyed and the ball is in their court,” said a trade official but he pointed out that “the RCEP declaration has a clear reference to India’s concerns. Given the phased nature of market opening, India had enough time to get its act together”.

India is in no position to shape future trade negotiations if it remains outside the room, officials warned. They were also pessimistic about India chasing bilateral trading arrangements with the U.S. and the European Union.

“Look at the asymmetries here; these are giant trading powers with the EU alone representing the interests of 27 member states with diverse economic agendas,” said a senior diplomat familiar with India’s negotiations with the EU. “Some will want concessions in dairy, others in wine and spirits. I’m not saying we cannot yield ground here since their products may appeal to only a small section of the Indian market. But our room for manoeuvre will be limited given that we are not a manufacturing or industrial power, we remain largely consumers.”

In the “limited trade deal” India is negotiating with the U.S., our demands seem stuck on restoration of GSP when we should be seeking far more, maybe GSP+. In a few areas such as perhaps textiles and automobiles where India has some strengths, the U.S. and EU may seek to limit our exports and threaten countervailing duties unless India made concessions in still more areas.

Diplomats were largely dismissive of India’s strengths in services, meaning IT and IT-enabled. They pointed out that services today cover a far broader area such as aviation, logistics, even architecture and the legal domain. India is a small player here and cannot hope to compete with international biggies if it remains outside multilateral trading regimes.

But with the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the ICU, it would appear that the push for bilateral trade deals will only intensify even if these are not sustainable in the long run because of China. If China is to become a responsible stakeholder in the world economy (it has every reason to be), and its excesses are to be curbed, world trade has to be conducted through proper rules. The U.S. is seen as the one country with the international standing to do this but the world will probably have to wait until Donald Trump moves on.

The new economic order that could emerge will have the U.S., EU, Japan and China in the Tier-1 list or countries with India and Indonesia and others in Tier-2. But they will have to surrender privileges they have got accustomed to, bite the bullet on hard domestic issues and learn to compete. Tier-3 will make up less developed countries that will get GSP and other benefits that India presently sees as its right. Is India up to the challenge?

India Leads Fight Against Covid-19 In South Asia

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NEW DELHI: Known for being the first responder in providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations in its immediate and extended neighbourhood, India now has extended that gesture to combating pandemics, in this case Covid-19. Elaborate measures have been put in place in India and the government has also lent a helping hand to neighbours like the Maldives and even Iran. PM Modi has also asked the SAARC leadership to come up with a strong strategy to combat the virus, a move that has got overwhelming response from many countries in the neighbourhood. In this episode of ‘Simply Nitin’, StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale outlines what India is doing to tackle the virus at home and beyond.


Pak To Participate in SAARC Video Conference on Covid-19

NEW DELHI: Pakistan has indicated it will participate in a SAARC video conference proposed by India, to fight the Coronavirus. The Pakistani assent came through the official twitter handle of the foreign ministry late Friday said, “We have communicated that the SAPM on Health will be available to participate in the video conference of SAARC member countries on the issue”

The response late on Friday night, was to a twitter proposal from Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier that day which said “I would like to propose that the leadership of SAARC nations chalk out a strong strategy to fight Coronovirus. We could discuss, via video conferencing, ways to keep citizens healthy. Together, we can set an example to the world, and contribute to a healthier planet.”

The decision by Islamabad, taken after a meeting of the National Security Committee chaired by PM Imran Khan, came well after other SAARC member states welcomed it. Nepalese Prime Minister K.P.Sharma Oli said, “My government is ready to work closely with Saarc member states to protect our citizens from this deadly disease. Sri Lankan president Gotabaya Rajapaksa tweeted, “LKA is ready to join the discussion and share our learnings and best practices and to learn from other SAARC members.”

The Bhutanese PM, Dr Lotay Tsering said, “ As members of this region, we must come together in such times. Smaller economies are hit harder, so we must coordinate.”

A thumbs up also came from Bangladesh with junior foreign minister Shahriar Alam saying that PM Sheikh Hasina “welcomes the proposal and looks forward to a constructive dialogue with the other leaders.”

Maldives President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih said his country would “fully support such a regional proposal” while the Afghan President Ghani’s spokesperson said they were “ready to work together devising a unified strategy to fight the coronavirus in the region” (sic).

The inevitable question: was this a camouflaged Indian effort to offer Pakistan the olive branch? Ties have been frosty for a considerable period and India’s surgical strikes, the Balakot air attack and sustained efforts at the UN have put Pakistan on the mat for terrorism. But there seems no reason for the government to do so given that little on the ground has changed and Pakistan continues to be a terror fountainhead.

Some analysts saw in this outreach to Saarc nations a play by India to undercut Pakistan and China. The former has in the past pushed hard to admit China into SAARC. “By making this offer to work out a joint strategy among Saarc countries to deal with the coronavirus, India has basically put the onus on Pakistan,” said G.Parthasarathy, former Indian high commissioner to that country. “It is really for Pakistan to decide, the choice is theirs.”

Coronavirus infections in Pakistan so far number around 20 but those could go up and Islamabad may have seen wisdom in putting aside its familiar obsessions about India. But one will have to wait and see whether Pakistan plays a constructive role during the videoconference, or uses it for India bashing.

As for China, that country’s offer to share “treatment plans” and virus detention kits is seen in South Block as part of its larger strategic outreach into India’s neighbourhood. By calling for a joint strategy to tackle Covid-19 with its South Asian neighbours, India is going many steps further. India has already dispatched a 14-member medical team to the Maldives and Modi’s tweet could be a signal that India is willing to play a larger role in the region to tackle a virus that hurts us all.

Virtual Reality Goes Viral!

The European Union did it the other day, the heads of 28 member states holding a videoconference in times of the Coronavirus. Now it’s the turn of Bangladesh and India, with Prime Ministers Sheikh Hasina and Narendra Modi scheduled to inaugurate the centenary celebrations of late Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, founder father of Bangladesh, on March 17. The word is India plans to gift Bangladesh 150 ambulances on that day, symbolising India’s humanitarian outreach to its eastern neighbour. Whether that or Modi’s outreach via videoconference will serve as balm for Bangladeshis upset with India’s CAA and NRC may not need microscopic examination.

Coronavirus And The Afghan Peace Process

KABUL: The coronavirus greatly complicates efforts to overcome the already significant obstacles to the implementation of the Afghan peace process foreseen in the February 29 U.S.-Taliban agreement. The prevalence of the virus in Afghanistan is unknown, given the weakness of healthcare and lack of testing. On March 10, the Ministry of Public Health said that there were seven confirmed cases—five cases in Herat and and two in Samangan—plus 60 suspected cases.

All known cases are related to Iran with which Afghanistan has a 572-mile largely unmonitored border and where more than 8,000 coronavirus cases have been recorded, making it the fourth-most-affected country after China, South Korea and Italy.

At least 291 people have died of the pandemic in Iran. An activist tweeted from Herat that 10,096 Afghans returned from Iran on March 10 with no screening. The ministry of refugees said that 50,000 had returned from Iran in the past two weeks.

Afghanistan also has a 1,510-mile long border with Pakistan, which is at risk because of the weakness of its public health system, its 596-mile-long border with Iran, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which has brought tens of thousands of Chinese into Pakistan.

There are millions of Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Iran, cross-border trade and labor markets, and cross-border traffic of nomads, traders, smugglers and armed groups. The pandemic seems likely to spread quickly from both Iran and Pakistan into Afghanistan.

The pandemic would pose a nearly insuperable problem for a country at peace. The implementation of a complex and challenging peace plan is made even more difficult by the pandemic.

The U.S.-Taliban agreement includes provisions for the release of up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners held by the Afghan government and up to 1,000 detainees held by the Taliban. Much of the Afghan public fears that released prisoners will rejoin the Taliban.

But detention centres pose risks of contagion. Iranian authorities have temporarily freed about 70,000 prisoners to help limit the spread of the coronavirus. Public health considerations might increase pressure for prisoner releases in Afghanistan.

There are compelling public health arguments to end hostilities. To prevent the spread of the pandemic, all forces should observe a ceasefire in place and confine themselves to quarters or even disband and return home, since concentrations of forces pose risks of contagion.

The resumption of offensive actions after the end of the pre-February 29 reduction in violence poses the risk of renewed escalation that threatens both the peace process and public health. Movements of both armed men and victimised populations are likely to spread disease.

The U.S.-Taliban agreement was signed on February 29 in Doha in the presence of hundreds of diplomats, journalists, and other witnesses and observers from dozens of countries throughout the world, a type of event that is now impossible to hold for the foreseeable future.

This poses difficulties to the next step of the peace process, convening intra-Afghan negotiations. Qatar and the Taliban have advocated holding the negotiations in Doha. But would Qatar welcome a delegation from Afghanistan, plus hundreds of journalists etc.?

The Taliban political office has advocated negotiations in a succession of countries: Qatar, Norway, Indonesia, Germany, and Uzbekistan. Such a road show is now impossible. The main possible venue is Norway, where authorities have banned gatherings of 500 or more people.

It seems difficult to bring to Oslo delegates from Kabul, Taliban reps from Doha and Pakistan and representatives of relevant states, including China, Pakistan and Iran. Plans for informal Afghan “dialogues” in Germany, Uzbekistan, China, or Indonesia will also have to be shelved.

The pandemic makes it even more important to end the war. The virus makes no political, national, religious, or sectarian distinctions. But the measures to control the spread of the pandemic will make it even more difficult to end the war.

(Dr Barnett R. Rubin is a political scientist focused on Afghanistan and South Asia. He is the author of eight books and is currently Senior Fellow and Director at the Center on International Cooperation at New York University. He has been Senior Advisor to the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Dr Rubin has advised the United Nations, NATO, the United States and the Afghan government on numerous policy matters, including aid policy, security policy, and diplomatic strategy.)

(By arrangement with Tolo News)

‘Undetected Coronavirus Cases A Worry; People Must Be Responsible’

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NEW DELHI: The Coronavirus appears to have passed its peak at least in China but is spreading in other parts of the world, especially Europe and the United States. In India, the number of cases has gone past 70 and can be expected to increase, says Lt. Gen. SL Narasimhan (Retd), member of the National Security Advisory Board, who also served in China as India’s military attaché. In a chat with Surya Gangadharan and Parul Chandra, Gen. Narasimhan says that all cases in India so far have been linked to people coming from abroad. There is no sign yet of community transmission but government agencies are on the alert and the armed forces and central police forces on standby. Advisories are being issued through all media including social media. This is a time, more than ever before, when people have to be responsible and act with maturity, says Gen. Narasimhan.


Russian Virologist Details Main Obstacle In Creation Of Vaccine Against Wuhan Coronavirus

MOSCOW: The total number of confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-2019) worldwide equals 1,21,564. The World Health Organization (WHO) made the decisive step on Wednesday to declare a pandemic as more countries are rethinking travel or visa restrictions over the spread of coronavirus disease.

Alexander Lukashev, director of the Martsinovsky Institute of Medical Parasitology, Tropical & Vector-borne Diseases at Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University shares his view on the obstacles that impede the timely creation of an efficient vaccine against the Wuhan coronavirus.

 

Sputnik: Is there any possibility that the coronavirus can survive in open space? If so, what does it change?

 

Alexander Lukashev: Coronavirus can be preserved on surfaces for a short time, up to at least 24 hours, maybe few days under certain conditions, but not more. And it does not technically survive; it is preserved because it cannot replicate itself outside of a human organism.

 

Sputnik: China has only managed to turn the tide of the epidemic by introducing tough measures. In your view, what is the key measure needed to “stop” the epidemic?

 

Alexander Lukashev: Of course, China was successful in stopping the outbreak, but I doubt that other countries would be eager to implement such strict preventive measures. The key measure for stopping the outbreak is the separation of people, isolation of sick patients and preventing potential transmission chains. But it’s not possible without a huge impact on social life and the economy, so I think only a very few other countries would be able to fully replicate these measures and control the outbreak.

 

Sputnik: Human coronaviruses were first identified in the 1960s. The first epidemic broke out in 2012, mainly in the Middle East, and reached Europe. What has been the main obstacle to developing a vaccine over the years?

 

Alexander Lukashev: The first outbreak actually happened in 2002, it was the outbreak of SARS coronavirus. Since then there have been efforts to create a vaccine. The main obstacle is that in coronaviruses there is a phenomenon of antibody-dependent enhancement, which means that improper or low quantity antibodies can actually enhance the infection instead of preventing it. This phenomenon is very difficult to replicate in animal models. Therefore, for other viruses, it is sufficient to induce antibody response to make a vaccine, and it is easy to do animal control of vaccine efficacy and safety.

 

In case of coronaviruses, animal models might not precisely replicate this antibody-dependent enhancement, and there will always be a risk that it occurs in humans. So, caution should be expressed in adopting coronavirus vaccines. And before they are tested for their safety, we need to establish animal models of COVID-19 infection, then to show that these models properly replicate antibody response and potential antibody-dependent enhancement, and only then we can begin testing prospective vaccines in these models.

 

Another obstacle in the production of vaccines is that coronavirus replicates mostly in mucosal cells, and they are not easily reached by antibodies present in the serum. Efficient control of coronavirus infection requires specific mucosal antibody response, which may be not elicited by some prototype vaccines. So first, we cannot be sure that many of the proposed vaccines will be efficient, and second, we cannot be sure that they will be safe.

 

Sputnik: Israeli scientists say they could create a vaccine as soon as within 90 days. How realistic is such a scenario? Will the vaccine be relevant for the next possible outbreak or in the event of a potential mutation of the virus?

 

Alexander Lukashev: It is pretty easy to make a prototype of a vaccine and it is indeed possible to do it in three months or even less. But so far, we do not even have models to prove the efficacy and safety of such vaccines. A lot of institutions and companies now produce vaccine prototypes but I do not foresee the implementation of these vaccines into human use in the nearest year.

 

The views and opinions expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.

 

(By arrangement with Sputnik)

Khalilzad Hopes Intra-Afghan Talks Conclude In ‘100 Days’

KABUL: U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad in an interview with Tolo News on Wednesday spoke about a number of significant topics related to the peace agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban, including counterterrorism operations, intra-Afghan talks and the prisoner exchange, and he also spoke about the current political deadlock between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah.

The U.S. negotiator who signed a peace deal with the Taliban in Doha said he hopes that the intra-Afghan talks are concluded within 100 days.

Intra-Afghan Talks

“In order to end the war between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban, there is a need for a compromise to reach a political settlement,” Khalilzad told Tolo News on Wednesday, days after the United States and the Taliban officially signed a peace agreement in Doha. The deal is intended to pave the way for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in exchange for a number of solid assurances by the Taliban to the U.S. and its allies.

“I personally hope that this issue (intra-Afghan negotiations) will be resolved within 100 days. We want this issue to be resolved during the first phase of the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country, and this will be in the interest of Afghanistan and the world,” said Khalilzad, referring to the U.S.-Taliban peace agreement, which states that the U.S. will fully withdraw its forces over the next 14 months, and that the current force of about 13,000 troops will be reduced to 8,600 within 135 days.

Khalilzad, however, clarified that the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 14 months is condition-based.

When asked what he felt during the signing of the U.S.-Taliban deal, Khalilzad said: “I had a feeling of hope, but it was nothing to celebrate. There is a possibility that this agreement will open the door for intra-Afghan talks, and I think this will happen, but we can only celebrate after it is completed.”

Khalilzad suggested that Afghans, in light of the past 40 years of conflict, need to agree on a formula where the bitter events of the past are not repeated.

When asked if the U.S.-Taliban peace agreement was a historic event, Khalilzad said: “If an agreement (peace agreement between Afghans) is reached, for a dignified and longstanding peace, then the day the U.S.-Taliban agreement was signed will be remembered as an important event in the modern history of Afghanistan.”

But the U.S. envoy cautioned that if the prevailing situation continues, the deal between the U.S. and the Taliban will lose significance.

According to Khalilzad, the peace deal between the U.S. and the Taliban was intended to test whether it was possible to end the conflict in Afghanistan through political means and negotiations.

He also said that the ongoing war in Afghanistan is taking the lives of many Afghans on a daily basis. “Every week hundreds of Afghans are killed; sometimes, nearly 1000 Afghans are killed in a month. Annually the number of casualties among Afghans exceeds thousands of fatalities. This war needs to stop now,” he said.

Khalilzad said that initially both the Afghan government and its allies believed that they could defeat the Taliban on the military front, but now everyone is convinced that there is no military solution to the conflict in the country, only a political settlement.

Terrorism

Khalilzad said that the Taliban, as part of their commitment to the peace deal, assured the U.S. they will fight terrorism and keep Al Qaeda elements outside of Afghan territory. He however rejected rumors that the U.S.-Taliban deal had two secret elements. He said that every provision of the deal between the U.S. and the Taliban are interconnected and interrelated

“The agreement is not about trusting each other, it is based on what is taken in exchange for what is given—it is a totally conditions-based agreement,” he said.

In answer to questions about whether the U.S. and the Taliban will fight Al Qaeda together, Khalilzad said: “We have reached an agreement about how they (the Taliban) will deal with such issues. We have joint channels in Doha where meetings are held on a daily basis. At the same time, we are dealing with this from an intelligence perspective to find out whether these commitments are implemented or not.”

When asked if the U.S. provides financial assistance to the Taliban to fight terrorism, Khalilzad said: “Currently we are not providing any money to the Taliban.” He said that Taliban representatives, U.S. diplomats and military personnel are meeting in Doha on a regular basis to discuss the implementation of the peace deal between the two sides, and the next steps to ensure full implementation of the accord.

U.S. Forces’ Withdrawal

In answer to a question about U.S. troop withdrawal, the U.S. envoy said: “I don’t want to talk about it for the sake of security, because there are domestic and external elements who are eager to create obstructions in the way of a successful implementation of this agreement.”

“There are certain people who would prefer the ongoing situation to continue—rather than peace—because it benefits them economically,” said Khalilzad.

Khalilzad said that the U.S., the Afghan government and the Taliban share the responsibility to ensure successful implementation of the peace deal. “It’s very clear that any withdrawal will be conditions-based, it is very important for the Afghan people to be aware that if all the conditions that exist in the agreement are implemented, if there is an assurance to the U.S. and the world about threats from the Afghan soil, if there are intra-Afghan talks that we pray to yield an outcome, then the U.S. will not see it necessary to stay here. We don’t want to leave in a situation where there is still a war going on in the country; we understand people’s concerns, that’s why we are trying to restore peace.”

Khalilzad said that the U.S. recognizes the Afghan government as a legitimate and strategic partner, not anyone else. “The Taliban is a group that is at war here, so it’s better to end this war through negotiations, understanding, and through intra-Afghan talks where we have the Taliban and an inclusive delegation from the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan to end the war.”

Ceasefire

“Based on the U.S.-Taliban peace agreement, the scale of the war should be reduced in the country after the peace agreement. We wanted to test the Taliban to see that they were able to reduce violence, and act upon what they say, and the result was positive,” said Khalilzad, referring to the seven-day reduction in violence (RIV) plan that was implemented on February 22.

He said that the Taliban must not miscalculate when it comes to the issue of increasing violence. “If they (the Taliban) launch attacks on Afghan forces, we will be there to defend them (Afghan forces), so we are mounting pressure on the Taliban to not resort to violence, and the war must be reduced,” he said.

“According to the agreement, a ceasefire comes once the two teams—the team of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban—sit down. And they have said that a ceasefire is one of the key issues that need to be agreed upon. Once there is a political agreement, there will be a permanent ceasefire,” Khalilzad said.

Prisoners

Khalilzad said that the Taliban demanded the release of 5,000 prisoners in exchange for engaging in talks with the Afghan side. “The Taliban wanted 5,000 of its prisoners to be released by the government—out of 13,000 to 14,000 prisoners—on the day of the talks, to build trust, or to create a conducive environment for talks. So we told them (the Taliban) that we are prepared to help in this matter,” said Khalilzad.

President Ashraf Ghani signed an order on Tuesday night to pardon and release Taliban prisoners in order for the peace talks between Afghanistan’s government and the Taliban to start, said Palace spokesperson Sediq Sediqqi.

According to the first part of the decree, which was released to the media on Wednesday, the prisoners that will be released are required to make a written commitment not to return to the war, said Sediqqi, who also said the prisoners will be released after a biometric process.

Before his inauguration, Ghani had announced that he would not release the Taliban prisoners before the intra-Afghan talks.

Peace Negotiating Team

The U.S. envoy said it is better that a single team is dispatched for holding talks with the Taliban. “It will be good to have one team. I have talked about it with various sides. Despite problems in the political sphere, everyone prefers one team to go for talks,” he said.

In a question about the chances that the agreement will collapse, Khalilzad said, “It is very difficult to come up with a percentage about such issues. Of course, our expectation is that there is less possibility of success if the Taliban fails to abide by their commitments and instead acts against the provisions of the agreement. Then there is a possibility (of a collapse of the U.S.-Taliban deal).”

On a possible move by the Taliban to re-establish an Islamic emirate, he said: “It’s a red line for the international community; there is international consensus regarding this matter, so I don’t think this will happen.”

Post-Election Crisis

Khalilzad said that he tried his best to create understanding between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah before the twin inaugurations, but he did not have enough time because of the time required by the peace process. “We tried our best; we worked until 4:30 am on the day of the twin inaugurations. A meeting was also held between Mr Ashraf Ghani and Mr Abdullah. Unfortunately, we could not manage to reach a conclusion. Both sides said that they want the negotiations to continue to find a solution. We are seeking ways to find a solution to the issue.”

“I am confident that the two (Ghani and Abdullah) have the intention to find a solution, because it’s something the world wants, and the people of Afghanistan want, and it is also a necessity, in light of the current situation, to give peace a chance,” Khalilzad said.

“We hope that this will not overshadow the historic opportunity for peace in Afghanistan,” Khalilzad said in response to differences between Ghani and Abdullah.

Khalilzad said that differences between the two sides could have negative impacts on the peace process and the security of Afghanistan. According to him, President Ashraf Ghani had offered Abdullah a post as head the High Peace Council, and a stake in (Ghani’s) government, but Abdullah refused the proposal. “It’s now the time for the two sides to focus on the interests of Afghanistan,” Khalilzad suggested.

In a question about the parallel government, he said: “We are not in support of two governments, we do not favor any parallel government, we do not have any problem with Dr Abdullah’s ideas and concerns, we are aware of the problems in the election. What we want to say is that there is a need for an understanding in this sensitive situation, because we want a sovereign, united and self-sufficient Afghanistan.”

(By arrangement with Tolo News)

WHO Declares Covid-19 A Pandemic, India Quarantines Itself

NEW DELHI: Within hours of the World Health Organisation (WHO) declaring Covid-19 a global pandemic on Wednesday, the Indian government in a bid to contain the rapidly spreading coronavirus took the unprecedented step of announcing that all visas for travel to India stand suspended until April 15.

The announcement was made both through the Twitter handles of both the Indian ministry of health and family welfare as well as Union health minister Dr Harsh Vardhan.

Dr Harsh Vardhan put out a series of tweets from his handle late Wednesday night stating that all existing visas, except diplomatic, official, UN/International Organizations, employment, project visas, stand suspended until April 15. He further said that this decision will come into effect from 1200 GMT on March 13 at the port of departure.

India has reported a total of 60 persons testing positive for Covid-19 by Wednesday even as the government here worked to contain its spread. Ever since the outbreak of Covid-19 in China in December the virus has claimed over 4,000 lives and over 1,00,00 persons have tested positive for it, globally.

Earlier in the day the WHO while explaining its decision to declare Covid-19 a pandemic had tweeted that it is “deeply concerned by the alarming levels of the #coronavirus spread, severity & inaction, & expects to see the number of cases, deaths & affected countries climb even higher. Therefore, we made the assessment that #COVID19 can be characterized as a pandemic.”

“We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear,” said the director-general of the WHO Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Wednesday while talking about the decision to declare Covid-19 a pandemic.

The decision to suspend all visas issued for travel to India was taken after a meeting of the group of ministers’ (GoM) chaired by Dr Harsh Vardhan ain which the civil aviation minister Hardeep Singh Puri, external affairs minister S.Jaishankar, minister of state for home Nityananda Rai, minister of state for shipping Mansukh Mandaviya and minister of state for health Ashwini Choubey were present.

The government has also imposed restrictions on foreign travel by Indian citizens saying that “Indian nationals are strongly advised to avoid all non-essential travel abroad.’ It warned that., “On their return, they can be subjected to quarantine for a minimum of 14 days.”

The government also announced that the visa free travel facility which is extended to holders of OCI cards (Overseas Citizens of India) has also been kept in abeyance until April 15. This decision will also come into effect from 1200 GMT of March 13 said the government.

However, the government said that foreign nationals who may wish to travel to India for compelling reasons can contact the nearest Indian mission.

As India battles to prevent Covid-19 from spreading further the government said that all incoming travellers, including Indian nationals,arriving from or having visited China,Italy, Iran,Republic of Korea,France, Spain and Germany after February 15 will be quarantined for minimum 14 days.This rule too will take effect from 1200 GMT on March 13 at the port of departure, said the health ministry.

The government has also decided to put in place restrictions on international traffic through land borders saying that there will designated check posts with robust screening facilities.

The WHO DG briefed the media on Covid-19 said that it was the first pandemic caused by the coronovirus. In what seems an attempt to calm nerves even as the pandemic rages across the world Dr Ghebreyesus further said: “We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic. This is the first pandemic that can be controlled.

The DG further said, “Pandemic is not a word to use lightly or carelessly. It is a word that, if misused, can cause unreasonable fear, or unjustified acceptance that the fight is over, leading to unnecessary suffering and death.”

Noting that 81 countries have not reported any Covid 19 cases while cases, 57 countries have reported 10 cases or less, Dr Ghebreyesus said, “We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic.”

Dr Ghebreyesus also said that Civid-19 “is not just a public health crisis, it is a crisis that will touch every sector–so every sector and every individual must be involved in the fight”.

China Researchers Race To Find A Cure For Coronavirus

Zhang Linqi is a tired man. A professor with over 30 years experience in infectious disease research, Zhang and his team of Chinese researchers from Tsinghua University in Beijing are working round-the-clock to find a cure for the coronavirus disease. From conducting experiments through the night, to liaising with researchers across China, and specialists in other parts of the world via video conferencing, Zhang is certain that a cure will be found soon.

“My mind is wholly occupied with the research on COVID-19, and we will not rest till we find a cure,” he said.

But where does this cure lie? Zhang says that his team have studied the mechanism by which the virus invades the host cells. This has given them a better understanding of how the virus operates ensuring that vaccine development will soon become possible. But how soon is the question?

“The research and development cycle for a vaccine usually takes a long period of time but the application of new technologies, plus the demand for emergency use in outbreaks of infectious diseases, will fasten the speed of vaccine development,” Zhang says.

His team isn’t the only one racing to find a cure for coronavirus. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, several Chinese research teams have been fully dedicated to vaccine development. Xu Nanping, Vice Minister of Science and Technology, said clinical trials for a vaccine could come by late April. “The vaccine development in China is at a similar stage to international efforts,” he said.

One of the problems that researchers are facing is that the virus is possibly mutating, making finding a cure more difficult. However, Chen Wei who is leading a team of researchers from the Academy of Military Medical Sciences, says that developing antigens – a toxin or other foreign substance which when injected induces an immune response in the body – can be found more easily today.

“The development of bioinformatics and big data mining today can help improve the design of the vaccine, making it more effective,” he says

It isn’t just big data that is lending a hand. Researchers from the Institute of Microbiology under the Chinese Academy of Sciences says past experience in the development of a vaccine for MERS-CoV – Middle East Respiratory System Coronavirus – is proving invaluable. These researchers say they are applying similar strategies and methods as they did for MERS-CoV, as they are for designing a vaccine for COVID-19.

But the road towards human testing is still a long one. The vaccines have to be tested first on animals and researchers are working together to conduct tests on mice and monkeys. In this regard, researchers from the Institute of Laboratory Animals Science under the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences have coordinated with other institutions.

“Currently, six types of possible vaccines are being tried here,” says Qin Chuan from the institute.

While the race to find a cure has been welcomed, fears have increased that researchers may use “shortcuts” to bypass international norms and practices. However, Chinese officials and medical experts have assured that they are not only following internationally-recognised medical standards to ensure safety but are working closely with international organisations to ensure that dangerous quick-fix cures do not reach the market.

“China’s research and development of vaccines is carried out according to laws and technical requirements. Our researchers throughout have maintained communication with the WHO on the standard of vaccines. There is no need to worry,” says Zheng Zhongwei, director of the Development Centre for Medical Science and Technology of the National Health Commission.

Europe In Crisis Mode As EU Battles To Contain Coronavirus Epidemic

NEW DELHI: The leaders of 27 EU member states were in fighting mode as they held a rare video-conference on Tuesday to carve out a joint response to the crisis. According to latest figures, the virus now numbers 15,000 cases in the continent along with an estimated 536 deaths. This figure is likely to change very quickly as member nations update figures.

While promising to do “whatever it takes” to end the virus, a sense of panic appears to have set in with major events including a high level one on trade being cancelled. However, the European Union heads of state summit scheduled for March 26-27 is still on with the leaders expected to review progress in tackling the coronavirus.

The video-conference saw other issues raised, such as the free movement of EU nationals between member states and a common approach to sharing medicines and medical equipment. Germany and France among others have been criticised for blocking exports of medical supplies to smaller nations including Italy – currently the European epicentre of the pandemic.

For UK-based former Indian diplomat Amitav Banerji, the crisis has created a sense of fear in the continent that has not been seen for some time. Banerji, who served in India’s Permanent Mission to the UN and was political director for the Commonwealth Secretariat in London, believes that some European countries truly feel that they are facing their “darkest hour.”

“The coronavirus crisis has hit Europe in a big way, arguably just as severely as the global economic crisis of just over a decade ago and the migrant crisis of more recent times,” he said adding that “this news about an entire country of 60 million people being put in quarantine in Italy is mind-boggling. The Italian Prime Minister has quoted Winston Churchill in referring to Italy’s “darkest hour.”

The number of confirmed cases in Europe’s other large economies — Germany, France and the UK — climbs by the day and “war footing” is an expression now being commonly heard.”

For Italy, widely seen as the epicentre of the coronavirus virus in Europe with a reported 9,000 cases and a death toll of 463 so far – the second behind China – normal life appears to have ground to a halt.  Night clubs have shut, football matches and sporting events are banned, schools and universities will remain closed until the first week of April and travel plans have been scrubbed.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte who signed off on these measures on Monday called on his people to start “giving up something for the community.” The result is something one has never seen before in a democratic country.

But while some Italians may chafe at the rules, others feel slighted over being seen as the “infected country.” Silvia Annavini, a wine and food consultant based in Rome, warns that her country’s lucrative and employment-generating tourism industry will be hit the hardest. Major luxury chains such as Gucci and Prada will be affected with serious Europe-wide implications for the fashion industry and luxury chains including small & medium enterprises.  This could spell a recession unless the spread of the coronavirus is curbed.

Italy’s predicament sums up the panic in Spain, France and Germany. In the case of Germany where two deaths have been no reported so far and over 1000 people quarantined, the largest travel and trade fair ITB was cancelled. Also, the high-profile Leipzig Book Fair.

France which has reported 30 deaths so far has limited public gatherings, sporting events may be played without fans and tourism attractions such as the Louvre and the Chateau de Versailles etc. will admit visitors on a restricted basis so crowds do not build.

Despite such measures, French President Emmanuel Macron believes that only Europe can defeat the virus with member nations acting together. “Faced with the Coronavirus, let us leave no room for speculation and instability. Europe will have to do all that is necessary in health and in economic terms,” he tweeted.

The biggest concern right now seems to be in the UK. Along with the infection of the UK’s junior health minister Nadine Dorries, the combination of Brexit and the rising cases of coronavirus has led to panic buying. Local media reported that Tesco, the largest grocer in the UK, has restricted the sale of essential food items.  The restrictions also cover antibacterial gels, pasta, tinned vegetables and UHT milk. High street chemists are restricting sales of hand-sanitisers to two per person.

With the UK Department of Health declaring that the “Wuhan coronavirus outbreak as a serious and imminent threat to Britain,” the economic impact could be severe, warns Banerji.  “Major meetings and sporting events have been cancelled. Airlines are struggling, with one British carrier (Flybe) going under. Supermarket shelves have emptied out of many products as people hoard for an uncertain near future and many companies have banned employees from travelling.”

“One does wonder whether this sense of panic is justified, given that far more people in the world commit suicide every day or die of heart attacks, cancer and diabetes,” he pointed out. “But it is quite clear that the impact of Covid-19 on Europe — and the world at large — will be severe and long-lasting.”

Ghani Agrees To Taliban Prisoner Swap For Talks, Reduction In Violence

NEW DELHI: Almost at the stroke of the midnight hour in Kabul, the Presidential Palace announced Ashraf Ghani had signed a decree for a conditional, phased prisoner swap with the Taliban, as promised during his swearing-in a day earlier. The move reverses a refusal to do so till Intra-Afghan Talks (IAT) begin with the Taliban. President Ghani had initially thumbed his nose at a clause in the Doha U.S.-Taliban deal signed on February 29 for the swap of 5,000 jailed Taliban members for 1,000 security and government personnel. Presidential spokesperson Sediq Sediqqi outlined the proposed release of Taliban prisoners in several tweets, saying 1,500 would be freed from March 14 (100 a day over 15 days). The rest of the 3,500 will be released in groups of 500 every two weeks after the start of IAT (face-to-face talks between a government appointed team and the Taliban). With the Taliban stepping up attacks post a seven-day Reduction in Violence (RiV) before the Doha deal, President Ghani has two more conditions in his decree: A concrete RiV and all those released must give a written pledge not to return to the battlefield. How that will be enforced or verified is not clear.

In its first reaction to the presidential decree, the Taliban has said the swap plan is not satisfactory, adding that all 5,000 should be released before the beginning of IAT.

U.S. Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban deputy political head Mullah Baradar signed the Doha deal on February 29, 2020.

 

Earlier, its Doha political office spokesperson Suhail Shaheen tweeted: “We handed over to the U.S. team a detailed list of 5,000 prisoners that none can tamper with. Our condition is that the detainees are acceptable only if verified by our team, whether they are handed over to us in an open rural area or in the premises of prisons. Also, they must be those detainees whose names are included in the list.”

After prevaricating, the U.S has not only endorsed President Ghani’s second term but is pushing for a reduction in continuing attacks. In a statement, the State Department called “the current high level of violence by the Taliban unacceptable”, adding, “We acknowledge the Taliban have taken steps to stop attacks against the Coalition and in cities. But they are killing too many Afghans in the countryside. This must change. Violence at these levels risks drawing both sides into a vicious cycle, serves no one, and undermines peace.”

 

Zalmay Khalilzad (extreme left) with the Taliban negotiating team post a phone-call between President Donald Trump and Mullah Baradar on March 4, 2020. (Photo: Taliban Political Office)

 

Arm-twisting and persuading both sides literally around the clock is the man at the centre of the peace efforts: U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad. He “urged the two sides to sit down immediately for talks on this issue in Doha to work out the details. “The Afghan government has agreed to do so. When implemented, this will be a significant step in the peace process. Despite these signs of progress, violence by the Taliban remains too high. We expect the Taliban to adhere to its commitments to reduce violence in order to allow for the release of prisoners to be implemented smoothly and the peace process to succeed.” 

Afghan born Khalilzad, who has been U.S. Ambassador in Kabul, Baghdad and the UN has another task. He has to deal with two Afghan ‘Presidents’. Dr Abdullah Abdullah, the Chief Executive in the National Unity Government held a parallel swearing-in on Monday declaring victory on the basis of ‘clean votes’ and saying he is ‘determined to form an inclusive government soon.’

 

Parallel Presidential swearing-in ceremony on March 9, 2020. (Photo Abdullah Abdullah’s office)

 

Here too Ambassador Khalilzad is playing shuttle diplomacy 24×7 and his boss, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, has “strongly opposed any action to establish a parallel government and any use of force to resolve political differences.” Indicating that the door to some sort of a compromise is still open, State Department Spokesperson Morgan Ortagus noted, “While preparations for intra-Afghan negotiations are underway, the Presidential electoral crisis in Afghanistan has delayed the naming of a national negotiating team. President Ghani has told us he is consulting with Dr Abdullah and other Afghan leaders and will announce an inclusive team in the coming few days.” Which means today’s date set for IAT is delayed.

 

UN Security Council unanimously adopts resolution supporting U.S.-Taliban deal & U.S.-Afghan joint declaration. (UNPhoto/EskinderDebebe)

 

Meanwhile, the bilateral U.S.-Taliban deal has become a multinational agreement with the U.N. Security Council in a rare unanimous vote recognising it as part of “significant steps towards ending the war” in Afghanistan and to provide “sustained support” to achieve peace through negotiations. This paves the way towards a clause in the Doha deal that sets out a conditional timeline for removal of UN sanctions (by 29 May 2020) and U.S. sanctions (by 27 August 2020) imposed on members of the Taliban.

 

Still from Taliban training propaganda video put out in February 2020.

 

Without trivialising the blood spilt and lives lost or the tough terrain ahead, the back and forth between the players resembles one of the marathon rallies between legendary tennis players Bjorn Borg and John McEnroe with the ball constantly and almost endlessly being put back in each other’s court. A tennis match has to have only one winner and the long road ahead in Afghanistan will determine if peace is that winner.

Global Markets Bearish As Coronavirus Spreads, Crude Plunges

NEW DELHI: The Ides of March is actually a Roman tradition when people settled their debts on the 15th of that month. The gloom and doom it is generally associated with is traced to the assassination of Roman Emperor Julius Caesar on that day. In current times, the gloom and doom appears to have struck five days early with stock markets tanking worldwide.

The Washington Post headlined the collapse and the reason: “US Markets Tank As Coronavirus Outlook Worsens”. The Dow Jones Industrial Index slid almost 970 points, reflecting concern over the impact the virus could have on the global economy. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index was also down by nearly 4 points while almost all of Standard & Poor’s 500 sectors were in the negative with financial, energy and industrial the worst performers.

Traders at the London Stock Exchange described the day as an absolute “meltdown”, likening it to the financial crisis of 2008.

But don’t blame it only on the virus. Oil was the other offender with prices per barrel plunging as Saudi Arabia-led OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and oil-gas giant Russia ended three years of cooperation to go their separate ways.

The Nikkei Index plunged to a 14-month low, diving 1,050 points. Traders were reported dumping commodities and buying up gold to mitigate risk.

The mystery is why Indian markets tanked after global oil prices fell a massive 31%. It is estimated that every $5 fall in the price per barrel of oil translates into savings of $7 to 8 billion. And since Brent oil prices fell by $14 per barrel, India could end up saving a staggering $20 billion.

Add to that, it may help India cut its $133 billion trade deficit. It may eases retail inflation and give the Reserve Bank the space to cut policy rates. It may also lower input costs for a majority of India’s corporates.

But there’s also a negative, which is why the Sensex dropped over 2,400 points on Monday before ending the day at 1,942 points. The slowdown in manufacturing with GDP growth projected to fall below 5%, suggests lower oil prices may not help. The fall in oil prices will hit commodity driven emerging markets hard, which may trigger outflows from emerging market funds, and India could be a likely victim.

The oil price fall will deepen the uncertainties in the market caused by the Coronavirus. Some Dalal street veterans are warning of a recession. Others say the Indian economy has never done well during a global slowdown. The word is tighten belts, guard your cash and wait for better times.

Ghani Sworn In During Rocket Firing, Abdullah Holds Parallel Ceremony

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NEW DELHI: Forty poor people can sleep on one carpet but two kings cannot fit in one land—That Dari proverb seems apt for the bizarre situation that Afghanistan finds itself in. Both Ashraf Ghani and Dr Abdullah Abdullah have held parallel, simultaneous Presidential swearing-in ceremonies in Kabul. To add to the drama, rockets were fired, one of which slightly damaged second Vice President Sarwar Danish and former Balkh Governor Atta Noor’s cars inside the Presidential Palace’s parking lot. President Ghani was seen calming the guests even as bodyguards scrambled and his two Vice Presidents including former spy chief Amrullah Saleh rushed to his side. 

President Ashraf Ghani, first Vice President Amrullah Saleh, second Vice President Sarwar Danish sworn in at the Arg(Citadel) (Photo: Presidential Palace)

President Ghani told an applauding audience while unbuttoning his coat: “I’m not wearing bullet-proof clothing. This chest is ready to be sacrificed for Afghanistan and my people”. Presidential Spokesperson Sediq Sediqqi has confirmed no one has been hurt in the rocket attacks. During his speech, President Ghani spoke about a decree he will issue on March 10 on the peace process. He will name a negotiating team for Intra-Afghan Talks (IAT) with the Taliban and even hinted the stalemate over a prisoner swap could be ended if a Reduction in Violence (RiV) was agreed to.

Dr Abdullah Abdullah sworn in at the Sapedar (white poplar tree) Palace (Photo: State broadcaster RTA)

Hardly a kilometre away, ex-Chief Executive in the National Unity Government Dr Abdullah Abdullah was also sworn in. He said his side is firm and will not accept a government that is the “outcome of fraud”, adding that his “inclusive” government’s work begins today. Before the swearings-in Dr Abdullah tweeted: “No one should have underestimated our commitment to genuine democracy & our resolve to uphold rule of law. Our track record of self-denial & compromise should not have given cause to anyone to take us for granted. Invalidation of all fraudulent votes is the way out.” Dr Abdullah has left the door open though, saying: “The best way to end the crisis is direct talks and we are ready for talks.” 

U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad, NATO & U.S. Commander Gen. Scott Miller at President Ghani’s swearing in (Photo: Presidential Palace)

U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad has been burning the midnight oil in Kabul trying for a resolution to the deep divide between the two leaders. The swearing-in ceremonies were postponed for several hours on Monday while he made last-ditch attempts to salvage the situation. Khalilzad also had at least one meeting with both Ghani and Abdullah and several sessions separately with both teams till the early hours of March 9 and undoubtedly will continue to press both for some sort of unity. That unity ahead of IAT with the Taliban hinges on power sharing. Abdullah and his supporters feel they have been kept from power several times (when the U.S persuaded him to drop out of the race with ex-President Hamid Karzai in 2009 and when he accepted Secretary of State John Kerry’s proposal for a NUG in 2014). This time Abdullah reportedly wants an executive Prime Ministerial role for himself to oversee the peace process and 60 per cent of political posts for his nominees. Ghani only offered Abdullah’s allies 40 per cent and the chairmanship of a ‘Supreme Peace Council that would negotiate with the Taliban. Ghani also insisted the chairperson and all national security institutions would report to him.

IAT with the Taliban are scheduled to start on March 10 after the U.S. and the Taliban agreement signing in Doha, Qatar on February 29. But it’s uncertain whether the talks will start on Tuesday. They’re stuck over whether a prisoner swap will take place before the talks begin and over an inclusive Afghan negotiating team to be named. President Ghani has indicated he will address those issues in a decree on Tuesday.

While both leaders held their ceremonies, there’s no doubt who had the most international support. President Ghani’s once ‘persona non grata’ National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib escorted in Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. Charge de’ Affaires and the NATO commander. At least 35 other envoys including the Chinese, Pakistani and Indian Ambassadors were present. India was one of the first to congratulate President Ghani when the final results were announced in February and Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent a personal note to him on Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla’s first visit abroad after taking over on February 28. But Abdullah has a formidable array of ethnic Afghan leaders in his camp and their next steps will determine if the country will fragment on dangerous lines.

Guests at Dr Abdullah’s swearing-in (Photo Abdullah Abdullah’s office)

Taliban Spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid has also warned: “We call on them to leave internal disagreements, stop the swearing(s)-in and work for peace.” 

Guests including an Afghan Sikh at President Ghani’s swearing-in (Photo: Presidential Palace)

On the peace process, India’s ex-Ambassador to Afghanistan Gautam Mukhopadhaya says, “It is a brave attempt, but I am not sure anyone really believes it will succeed despite a profound desire for peace on the part of all Afghans. The leadership, ethnic and generational divide represented by the parallel ceremonies is the least of it. With many well-wishers working for it, a compromise is possible. But on the peace process, conditions do not seem right. For peace, both sides have to want peace. While this is there on the democratic side, without the US fully behind them, they will be negotiating from a position of weakness. Judging from the post accord violence, it is not at all clear this is present on the Taliban side. Both sides also have very different conceptions of peace. The Taliban want a victorious peace. The democratic side do not want to lose the gains of the last 18 years. There is no consensus on compromises that can be made on either side. Each step will invite divisions on either side. It will be a long and tortuous process. International support for democratic Afghanistan will continue to be needed. “

President Ghani was sworn in at the Presidential Palace-the Arg(Citadel) while Dr Abdullah’s ceremony was held in the Chief Executive’s official compound—Sapedar (white poplar tree) Palace. So far, the ‘poplar’ shows no signs of bending in the ‘citadel’. To quote another Afghan proverb: You cannot fit two swords in one sheath.

Clearly Zalmay Khalilzad and the two opposing Afghan camps have their work cut out.


‘India’s Nuclear Arsenal Is Limited Yet Credible, NFU Has Worked’

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NEW DELHI: The crumbling nature of nuclear arms control is driven by a number of factors. It’s no longer about two big nuclear armed powers, rather there are now nine with possibly many more waiting to get on the bandwagon, says Manpreet Sethi, scholar and commentator on nuclear arms and strategic issues. In a chat with StratNews Global, Sethi makes the point that trust deficits between nations and the emergence of new technologies such as hypersonic vehicles, threaten India as much as other countries. So India must continue to improve and upgrade its nuclear arsenal while avoiding the race for adding more and more delivery vehicles. She also believes India must stick to its No First Use posture, which has served her well. Nuclear deterrence, she points out, is a mind game, its value lies in how you play that game while ensuring a stable yet credible nuclear arsenal.


PM Modi’s Visit To Coronavirus-Hit Bangladesh Put Off

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s much anticipated visit to Bangladesh for the birth centenary celebrations of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rehman is off after Dhaka postponed the inaugural ceremony slated for March 17 after three people tested positive for the Coronavirus in Bangladesh on Sunday.

In a statement issued late Monday evening, the Ministry of External Affairs said that the PM’s visit is “being deferred”. It further said that it has received a formal notification from the Bangladesh government on deferring the public events that were planned to mark Bangabandhu’s centenary celebrations. India was also informed that this was done “on account of the detection of cases of coronavirus in Bangladesh, and of the larger public health situation in this regard.”

The MEA said that the Bangladesh government “has advised us that fresh dates for these commemorative events will be conveyed later.” It also noted, “while expressing understanding of the circumstances that necessitates this deferment, India is ready to work with Bangladesh, as partners, to combat the spread of this disease in our shared neighbourhood.”

Apart from participating in the centenary celebrations, there was a bilateral element to PM Modi’s visit. Its deferment will be something of a setback for New Delhi as it was hoping to reassure Sheikh Hasina’s government once again about the CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) and the NRC (National Register of Citizens), issues on which there has been considerable concern in Bangladesh, including within the Sheikh Hasina-led government. In recent months, some Bangladeshi ministers have cancelled their visits to India.

There have been street protests in Dhaka, including by students of Dhaka university over the communal violence that rocked north east Delhi recently.

India’s foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla was in Dhaka last week in the run up to PM Modi’s visit had sought to assuage the concerns of India’s next door neighbour on CAA in a speech that he delivered at the Bangladesh Institute for International Studies. He had also stated that the NRC would have no implications for Bangladesh.

Chinese Investments In Nepal’s Infrastructure: A Reality Check

NEW DELHI: “The Nepalese often say, “Drop by drop is the water pot filled.” There is also a Chinese saying: “The flame runs high when everyone adds wood to the fire.” I am convinced that as long as our two countries carry forward our tradition of friendship and keep increasing our exchanges and cooperation, we will together take our friendship across the Himalayas to a new height.”

Chinese president Xi Jinping in a signed piece that appeared in Nepalese newspapers on the eve of his visit to the Himalayan nation in October 2019.

That visit made Xi Jinping the first Chinese president to visit Nepal in 23 years, marking an important chapter in the ever-tightening embrace between Beijing and Kathmandu. And much as President Xi tried to make it appear an equal partnership, the truth is that China with its huge investments is tightening its vice-like grip on a strategically located but impoverished nation.

With Nepal a vital element of its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which the land-locked Himalayan nation has joined in its quest to reduce dependence on India for connectivity, China is executing infrastructure projects at a furious pace there. This has not only led to Indian anxieties on Nepal’s growing tilt towards China but also fears that it may fall prey to China’s “debt trap diplomacy”, like many other nations.

However, even as the Nepal-China clinch grows stronger, there’s been trouble in this evolving relationship with many Chinese infrastructure projects facing problems. These range from tardy progress, poor work execution, funding issues and difficulties in land acquisition to accusations of Chinese citizens being involved in cybercrimes. And with the outbreak of COVID-19, China’s task has become all the more tough when it comes to executing certain projects in Nepal as technical personnel who had gone home to celebrate the Chinese New Year haven’t returned, sources told StratNews Global. But there are troubles other than the COVID-19.

For instance, the three airport projects in which China is involved—Tribhuvan international airport runway renovation, Pokhara international airport and the new Gautam Buddha airport in Bhairawa near Lumbini (birth place of Lord Buddha)—have been facing delays due to strikes and disturbances by workers.

The Pokhara Regional International Airport is being constructed by the China CMAC Engineering company which bagged the contract in 2014. The airport near Lumbini is being built by China’s Northwest Civil Aviation Construction Group with the Asian Development bank having provided $70 million.

Chinese projects in the roadways sector too are encountering difficulties such as differences over the funding formalities as well as cost overruns, said sources. Among the road construction/upgradation/expansion projects being undertaken with Chinese assistance are the Keyrong-Kathmandu road, the Kodari highway, the Kimanthaka-Jogbani road and the Kathmandu ring road.

The story appears to be the same in the railways sector with issues of funding or the lack of a time frame dodging some projects. The proposed trans-Himalayan railway project to link China and Nepal via a track running from Keyrong in Tibet to Kathmandu is facing its own issues despite the fanfare with which it was announced. With India keeping a watchful eye on this proposed project, sources told StratNews: “It’s progressing in fits and starts as China has agreed to pay for a detailed project report (DPR) for only 75 kilometres of the railway track. There is still lack of clarity on the entire project’s funding once the DPR is ready.”

The proposal to build the Kathmandu-Pokhara and Pokhara-Lumbini rail links with Chinese help, too, remains nebulous with neither the funding nor the time frame for the execution of these projects having been finalised so far. However, work is on to prepare the DPRs to build the Ring Road monorail in Kathmandu.

Significant Chinese inroads into the hydropower (HP) sector notwithstanding—it has already executed five projects in Nepal—the ones currently being built by it have run into rough weather. The projects have been hit by delays in submission of feasibility reports, poor execution of projects by Chinese contractors, blacklisting of some companies for poor performance, natural disasters like the 2015 earthquake, floods and landslides and slow pace of land acquisition.

Among the Chinese executed HP projects dodged by trouble include the 756 MW Tamor project, the 111 MW Rasuwagadhi hydroelectric project, the 37 MW Upper Trishuli 3B project, 1,200 MW Budhi Gandaki project and the 1,000 MW Kimathanka Lower Arun Hydropower project.

In the past, the Chinese have built in Nepal five hydropower projects—the 50 MW Upper Marshyangdi A, 456 MW Upper Tamakoshi, 25 MW Upper Madi, 30 MW Chameliya and 60 MW Upper Trishuli.

The Chinese footprint has also been increasing in Nepal’s electricity sector. China is helping Nepal set up electricity transmission lines, though here again Beijing and Kathmandu have had their share of troubles. For instance, the contract given to the Chinese to build electricity sub-stations in Matatirtha-Kathmandu-Markichok and Tanahu in Gandaki was terminated by the Nepal government for lack of adequate progress. These projects are now being funded by the Nepalese and Norwegian governments as well as the ADB.

China is also making its presence felt in the telecom sector in Nepal, with Kathmandu keen to reduce the country’s dependence on India which once enjoyed a monopoly. In December last year, the Nepal Telecom Corporation asked Chinese telecom companies to install 4G equipment in telecom towers. Nepal’s Chaudhary group has gone ahead with a tie-up with controversial Chinese telecom major Huawei for a 4G network that can be upgraded to 5G.

But Chinese presence in the telecom sector has come with its share of problems for Nepal. “There have been concerns about Chinese nationals’ involvement in cyber crimes and financial frauds,” said sources.

At least 122 Chinese nationals were arrested last December in Kathmandu and deported early January for alleged involvement in cyber crimes and other criminal activities such as hacking ATM machines.

Nepal has also been getting Chinese assistance in constructing land ports with the latter assisting with the Timure dry port in Rasuwa district. It’s also seeking Chinese help for other dry ports but these new projects are facing delays as Beijing wants a joint security plan in place before proceeding with the work.

China’s rapid strides across all spheres of economic activity in Nepal have also seen it expressing interest in constructing the Nepal-China Friendship Industrial Park in Damak. However, even as an inception report is being prepared as a run-up to the DPR, concerns are already being voiced about the land that will be required, which in turn will lead to the displacement of a large number of people.

Nepal’s industries sector hasn’t been spared the Chinese onslaught either with the setting up of the Nepal Hongshi Shivam Cement project. But this project too is facing turbulence with the employees complaining about low salaries. Lack of access via proper roads and the need for high intensity power supply have also bedevilled this project.

The setbacks in various projects notwithstanding, Beijing has not been deterred from pushing ahead with its efforts to wield greater influence in Nepal. So it’s willing to open its purse strings to provide a grant of Nepalese Rs 500 million as a development grant to each of the 126 rural municipalities in the 15 districts that have a border with the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) to develop infrastructure.

But this offer comes with strings attached. Seeking to make the most of its offer, Beijing wants Kathmandu to agree to the use of only Chinese contractors, manpower and materials for the project.

It isn’t only infrastructure though in which China has spread its tentacles far and wide in Nepal. It’s also seeking to make inroads in what an Indian diplomat described as “Nepal’s social infrastructure.” So Beijing stepped in to help reconstruct the Durbar high school in Kathmandu and the Ratna Rajya secondary school in Sindhupalchowk, both of which were destroyed in the 2015 earthquake.

With China also seeking to appropriate Buddhism, it’s already poured millions of dollars into Lumbini. Apart from the international airport China is building not too far from Lord Buddha’s birth place, it also plans to build a Buddhist temple which will be in addition to the Zhong Hua Chinese Buddhist monastery.

China is prepared for the long haul and India is fast losing influence in a country with which it has had long historical, cultural and economic ties. It can only wait and watch, with its fingers crossed.

Better Understanding And More Dialogue Will Push Forward India-U.S. Trade Deal

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PUNE: Indians must take more pride in its contribution to the global economy, says KV Subramanian, Chief Economic Advisor To The Government of India. Speaking to Ashwin Ahmad, Subramanian quotes the late prominent economic historian Angus Maddison and states that India was the prominent economic superpower in the world from 1 AD to 1750 accounting for as much as one-third of the world’s GDP. On the likelihood of an India-U.S. trade deal happening, he believes that better understanding and more dialogue between the nations could see some movement on this front.