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Why Bolsonaro’s Stance Against Social Distancing Makes Sound Political Sense

NEW DELHI: Why is he doing it? This is the question Brazilians and indeed the rest of the world is asking as Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro once again openly defied lockdown orders, set by his country’s own governors, to hold a mass rally in Sao Paolo on Sunday. All of this comes as the samba nation’s death toll from the pandemic has risen to over 2,000 – the highest in South America.

Despite a big thumbs down from his citizens — the president’s disapproval ratings have become the highest since he took office in January last year — Bolsonaro seems unapologetic about his tactics. Indeed, it has taken social media to get him to back off a bit. In a highly unusual move against a head of state, two of Bolsonaro’s Tweets and Facebook posts that gave incorrect information about the coronavirus were blocked and deleted by Twitter and Facebook last month.

In the tweets, which were posted as videos, the president walked around the streets of Brasilia claiming the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine successfully treats the coronavirus. He also encouraged an end to social distancing and isolation measures in the country, statements that have had many Brazilians up in arms.

A screenshot from the official Twitter page of Jair Bolsonaro showing a deleted tweet © Photo: twitter / @jairbolsenaro

Bolsonaro is leading Brazil to the “slaughterhouse” fumed former president Lula da Silva in a recent interview with The Guardian.

Former Indian ambassador and an expert on Latin America Deepak Bhojwani believes such moves from the Brazilian president should hardly come as a surprise. “Bolsonaro has always seen himself as the ‘Donald Trump of the tropics.’ He is a populist candidate for the far right, and he is continuing to cater to them. His move to declare churches open to cater to evangelical Christians, his insistence that ‘Brazil is open for business’ is to cater to the rich business community that voted for him. So, the more protests there are against him the more necessary it is for him to hang on to his crucial support base.”

Bolsonaro’s bid to cater to his core constituencies is not without risk. By alienating the core public and politicians he has already opened himself up to possible moves towards impeachment. There is a precedent for this. Former president Dilma Rousseff was impeached in 2016. Bhojwani believes that impeachment is unlikely, but he does acknowledge that things are turning worse for the president by the day. “There has been a growing groundswell movement against Bolsonaro but what has come as a real slap in the face is the fact that the Brazilian Federal Tribunal (the equivalent of the Supreme Court) has allowed local governors and mayor to impose lockdowns and not the president.

“What this means is that he has lost institutional political power to a very large extent which is hurting him. Considering that the left is going to put up a very strong candidate, I frankly don’t see Bolsonaro as being an outright winner in the next elections.”

It isn’t just at home that Bolsonaro has created problems for himself. Recently, his son Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro created problems for his father’s administration when, in a statement, he likened China’s role of hiding critical information about the pandemic as akin to what “the Soviet dictatorship did during the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster.” Beijing immediately reacted with the Chinese embassy in Brazil calling the words “irresponsible” and demanding an “immediate retraction.”

The diplomatic showdown is clearly not in the nation’s best interest. In 2001, over 50% of Brazilian products went to the EU. Now they go to East Asia and mostly to China. Figures also show Brazil-China was 100 billion dollars bilateral trade in 2018 and now thanks to the ongoing US-China trade war, Beijing is now turning more to Brazil for agricultural products. Given the global slowdown post-pandemic, Brazil simply cannot afford to lose Beijing.

Despite aggravating friends and allies both at home and abroad, there is one country that Bolsonaro seems to have a soft corner for and that is India. Bhojwani says that after Trump, he was one of the first leaders to ask Prime Minister Narendra Modi to send hydroxychloroquine, which India readily agreed to.

“In his letter of thanks to our prime minister, Bolsonaro had talked about how Lord Hanuman brought the holy medicine from the Himalayas to save the life of Lakshman. It seems that from the letter he retains deep respect and affection for India.”

When Can A Coronavirus Vaccine Be Ready – Part II

NEW DELHI: In the second part of an exclusive interview, Dr Niteen Wairagkar, global pandemic and new viral diseases expert speaks to Opinion Editor Ashwin Ahmad and explains how international organisations can and should ensure the equitable distribution of the vaccine for the COVID-19 virus across the world.

 

Q: There are many pharmaceutical companies racing to create such a vaccine. While this is needed isn’t there also a danger that this rush can do more harm than good?

A:  Vaccines are developed and given to people on the principle of what we call the ‘do no harm’ basis.  This means that when giving this vaccine safety comes first and the adverse effects are minimal. This is the principle on which all regulatory authorities operate without any compromise.

The vaccine licensing process is a very stringent one where international regulatory authorities would have gone through all the available data to ensure the vaccines are safe. Without this, the vaccine will not be given conditional approval even. Everybody needs to understand that the regulatory system is very stringent, and the safety standards are very high, which is why it takes time. So, I wouldn’t listen to any rumours or media reports, but would read the regulatory authority’s evaluation report for vaccine safety.

 

Q: Has this been done before?

A:  There have been precedents. Ten years back, during the 2009 influenza pandemic, the pandemic vaccine was developed and licensed with emergency pathways and deployed in the field. Then there was an Ebola outbreak in 2014-15 and in 2018-20, where the Ebola vaccine was given conditional approval and used in the field to control the outbreak while generating a lot of data on safety and efficacy which led to its licensure and WHO pre-qualification. So, these emergency regulatory pathways have been streamlined and I believe the same process will be followed for the COVID-19 vaccine.

 

Q: How will the process of regulating the vaccine begin? Say for instance a vaccine is perfected in India then what happens?

A:  Each country, of course, must first go through its regulator in its own country. But in the case of this pandemic all vaccines will have to go to what we call the WHO pre-qualification pathway which evaluates if it is suitable for everyone. So, once you get approval from your country’s medical body, in the US it would be the FDA for example, you would then have to apply for WHO PQ. Once the vaccine crosses the WHO pre-qualification pathway it is suitable for all countries, particularly low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Then it can be procured through UN agencies, distributed and used in these countries through public sector programs.

 

Q: How does one ensure that the vaccine will be made available to lower and middle-income countries as well?

A:  Once the vaccine is licensed the vaccine developer can make it available in the private sector and the private market. Each country has different regulations for this. For the public sector in lower and middle-income countries, there is a global organization called GAVI – The Global Vaccine Alliance which supports the use and deployment of these vaccines in 73 LMIC countries.

Once a vaccine is WHO pre-qualified it can be purchased through UN agencies. Usually, there is a UNICEF procurement division which procures these vaccines for Gavi eligible countries. Then this vaccine is available in the public sector. In the private sector, the developer will make it available in the market using their own sales networks and pathways.

 

Q: There are concerns about the high cost of the vaccine once it is developed. How do we guard against this?

A: This is a pandemic situation. Once the vaccine is developed the main question will be the vaccine manufacturing capacity. How many doses of that vaccine can be manufactured globally and how many doses will be required to protect the global population.

The global population is 7 billion so producing dosage of that amount would be next to impossible. So the steps are: increase manufacturing, get the maximum possible doses manufactured and then work on the global access, access to the vaccine where it is needed most.

The world must stand together to ensure that the vaccine is not dictated by money or where it is manufactured or who is manufacturing. No country should be in a position to nationalize the vaccine manufacturing plants. There needs to be an urgent global effort towards equitable access of COVID-19 world-over in the form of a Global COVID19 Vaccine Sharing Mechanism. A Global COVID19 Vaccine Sharing Mechanism is needed urgently to ensure equitable access to the vaccine where it is needed most and the time to start working on this mechanism is NOW.

 

Q: What are the international safeguards that are being put in place to ensure that the virus will be distributed equitably?

A: After the last 2009 influenza pandemic, all WHO member states signed a treaty called the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework (PIP Framework) wherein they agreed to share the influenza pandemic vaccine globally. WHO subsequently worked with vaccine manufacturers and signed legally binding contracts to reserve 10-15% of global manufacturing capacity of influenza vaccines for use in LMIC countries.

This virtual stockpile has around 400 million doses available to WHO for use in these countries in case of a future influenza pandemic. We have this global mechanism, a template available which needs to be replicated to ensure global equitable access to the COVID-19 vaccine as well. All the global groups like G20, SAARC need to support a global treaty like this to ensure that vaccine reaches where it is needed most to avert mortality and morbidity during this pandemic. The time to start working on such a global mechanism is NOW.

‘Not Fair’: China Squirms At India’s FDI Jab

NEW DELHI: Hours after India tweaked its FDI policy to screen all investments by its neighbours who share land borders, the Chinese embassy in Delhi registered its outrage. A long statement on the embassy website attributed to Counsellor Ji Rong deprecated India’s new policy by invoking the principles of free and open trade, non-discrimination and so on.

The statement said: “The additional barriers set by Indian side for investors by specific countries violate WTO’s principle of non-discrimination and go against the general trend of liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment. More importantly, they do not conform to the consensus of G20 leaders and trade ministers to realize a free, fair non-discriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable trade and investment environment and to keep our markets open.”

The statement is typical of what one has come to expect from China. High-sounding principles that conveniently overlook China’s practices designed to favour its own industry and products. So Indian dairy, pharmaceuticals and IT are kept out citing one reason or the other. Foreign companies that have invested in China are required by law to share patent information, source codes and so on. Many do so or their operations in the country could be jeopardised.

China citing WTO principles reflects the fact that it has prospered economically from the liberal international order but is not inclined to give an inch when it comes to its own domestic choices.

Worse still is the threat underlying the statement from Ji Rong. She says: “Companies make choices based on market principles. We hope India would revise relevant discriminatory practices, treat investment from different countries equally and foster an open and fair business environment.”

An open and fair business environment is what every nation wants but not when that becomes a weapon to be used against the host country. China’s emergence as the dominant financier of Indian start-ups, including and especially those in the e-commerce and fintech space, leaves this country dangerously vulnerable. Data generated by these start-ups flow to China, giving that country a window into Indian habits of every kind, from what people spend to how they live and work. It gives Chinese firms an advantage which they will leverage as the new economy with the focus on 5G, Internet of Things and so on takes root.

India cannot afford to have its new economy in hock to a foreign power. To be sure, the new FDI rules could impact the flow of badly needed money into areas that may not figure as national security risks, such as automobiles or solar energy and the start-up space. Which is why India may need to refine its policies, ensuring that FDI flows into low security risk sectors are not affected while those in the sensitive 5G and related high tech space are firewalled.

Corona, The Chinese Chernobyl

CHENNAI: The Chinese virus has spread to the rest of the world. It crippled thriving economies and destroyed the subsistence economies of vastly underprivileged people. More importantly, it caused death and devastation of innocent people and their livelihood across all barriers. Slowly but steadily the finger of blame for this pandemic has swung towards China. Despite best Chinese PR attempts no one believes that China sacrificed itself or handled the situation better or provided global leadership or came to anyone’s aid. On the other hand, the converging perception is that China bungled, delayed informing the rest about the pandemic in connivance with WHO and is involved in usurious ‘mask diplomacy’ tantamount to criminal negligence. The evolving consensus, and that is firmer by the passing day, is that there is a decoupling required from China. This had started even before the viral outbreak. It is now starting to gather steam with Japan and USA taking the lead. We will leave this here and come back to it later.

Very recently, China upwardly revised its death figures in Wuhan by 1290 (i.e. 40 per cent). Why? I do not know. Probably to assuage the international community that it is coming clean. Probably to signal to its own population that it is transparent and the world is griping foolishly about Chinese opacity. To me, it signals something else. First, it is proof of Chinese under-reporting. If these are the figures for Wuhan, what are the figures for the rest of China? Coming later? Even with this upward revision, China has had only three deaths per million against South Korea’s five per million. Surely, China has not managed its situation better than South Korea? Hence the real figures are still hidden. It reinforces lack of trust in China. Second, by under-reporting, China has deprived all of us of some valuable research data which would have given better clues as to how to deal with the pandemic and saved lives. Under the circumstances it is criminal. The crucial issue is however something else.

The main context is that it has unmasked the real motive. Let me amplify. In my earlier article “Coronation of the King”, I had outlined four scenarios. These were Bumbling Ignorance, Loss of Control and Evading Reality, Exploiting the Situation and Biological Warfare. My take on ‘Exploiting the Situation’ was that the situation in Wuhan could have developed accidentally due to any scenario. However since it happened, why not deliberately export it to others? ‘Exploiting the Situation’ theory fits in well with the reality that internal movement was banned in China when external bans were being contested and resisted. Also, Beijing and other major cities being unscathed to the extent of Wuhan gives credibility to this line of thought.

Let us further granulate the scenario of ‘Exploiting the Situation’. The outbreak occurs. Human to human transmission is confirmed. The SARS experience of 2003 suggests that things are bad. Realization sets in that an unknown uncontrolled evil genie is out of the bottle. The virus is going to cripple China, knock it out of its path of superpower glory. This is war-gamed quickly. A course of action is put into execution. First downplay it by continuing with the huge feast in Wuhan. Nothing is wrong. Festivities continue. Smokescreen up. The leader makes a statement to show resolute intent to curb the virus. He then dives out of the scene. The numbers are underreported. The virus is allowed to seep out to other parts of the world through departing international travellers; secure in the knowledge that the problem will surface all over the world only after two weeks. Right then things seemed to be okay for an onlooker from outside. Hugs are sought in public from gullible Italians. So others are lulled to think it is a minor local event. Information is suppressed. Outside health officials are kept at bay. They cannot assess the real deal. The WHO is subverted and used to endorse the Chinese view. All those who enforce travel bans are castigated. Meanwhile, internal travel bans are put in place. The Chinese fight a valiant battle to defeat the virus in its land. The leader then comes out of hiding to take the bows. The result: what we are seeing now. Rest of the world crippled; China back on its feet. Advantage China. Leader of the World. Once everyone is grappling with their deaths and pandemic problems, quietly release some more figures in the confusion. The context and result are clear. Deliberate action is evident for those who can analyze. The only hitch is that this plan while succeeding in ‘Exploiting the Situation’ has done damage beyond the imaginable. The world will get wise to it. A matter of time. It will be a nail in the Chinese coffin. This is straight out of a Tom Clancy novel. Except that it is a true Chinese script being played out sans Jack Ryan to save the world. He (CIA) was sleeping on duty or AWOL.

Now let us see the geonomics. The Chinese economy is set to contract by 6.8 per cent in the quarter. Most of this is in the manufacturing sector, export driven and with minimal internal consumption. There are reports that many companies are already filing for bankruptcy and there are layoffs in China (real estate and startups are mostly hit). Internationally, there is clarity that a significant portion of manufacturing and supply chain capacities will have to be relocated to outside China. The minimum I foresee is 25 per cent. That means 25 per cent job losses too. That is huge. During this pandemic, many countries will be forced to become self-reliant on their capacities in many areas. It is a matter of survival. That business will never come back to China. There are reports that all BRI projects have ground to a halt. Many of these projects are in impoverished countries whose governments might not survive the Chinese Virus. As of now they are NPAs—dead ends to nowhere and will remain so. There will be renegotiation and downsizing of many of these. I do not see new projects commencing for at least a couple of years. The tail end will be closure of many more businesses in China. China has been a heavy investor in Africa. Many African nations are now upset with China for exhibiting ‘racism’. China will experience a backlash from some of these nations. China might have recovered. Others have not. Their economies are contracting too. Unless goods are essential, no country will have the appetite or the money to buy anything from China. That means the ‘Made in China’ plan to make export-oriented hi-tech items will get hit. There is also an emotional backlash from major sections of the international community. The viral images of Italians hugging Chinese and then dying by the droves due to the Chinese Virus will not go away. These are defining moments of this war. To me it as powerful as the photo of the ‘Napalm Girl’ of the Vietnam War. It changed the course of that war. This might change the course of China. Some of us will carry it to our graves. While most of this is external to China let us see the internal dimension.

The virus from Wuhan has not exited China. There are reports that it is surfacing in the outer rims of China. There are also reports of a second wave. So it is not as if China is home and dry in a post-pandemic paradise where manufacturing is humming all over again. Then there is the issue of a debt bubble. China existed on a huge debt bubble. Which way will this bubble go? I do not know. It will not deflate or be filled up easily. A burst is on the cards. In any scenario, the outcomes for China will be nasty. Then there is the issue of military funding. China’s huge investment in building the most powerful and modern military will hit a circuit breaker. Militaries cost money. Militaries under change and modernisation cost even more. Unfortunately, if there are no wars or conflicts, huge expansion plans are dead-end investments. All this will end in loss of jobs in China and “Food Off the Chinese Household Table”. I do not think that China has the fiscal space to print its way out of trouble. I also do not think that we will see visuals of Chinese lining up in cars maintaining prim social distances to collect their weekly social security cheques. If things go bad, there will be unrest due to poverty and hunger. Then, of course, there is this issue of suppression of people’s rights. Hong Kong has not vanished. If anything the pro-democracy move will only intensify.

In all this, just factor the virus itself. It is noticeably clear that it will not vanish one fine morning. It is going to turn from a pandemic to an endemic. We will be sleeping with our enemy forever. Till a vaccine comes up, the world will not move to a sense of normalcy. The new normal will be built on isolation or interest blocks based on openness and trust with a sense of shared values. Where does a China which has “Exploited the Situation” fit into this paradigm? You must be in Pakistan, Serbia or some such place to be considered a friend if you are a Chinese. Even there I doubt if people will respect a Chinese. Remember the Pakistani TV anchor saying “Chuna laga diya”!

So what do we see? A China which is guilty. A China with huge losses in businesses and jobs. A Chinese debt bubble deflating or bursting. A China which will be shunned emotionally and physically. A China which will continue to grapple with its homemade virus in the most unadulterated form. A China with unrest amongst its 1.6 billion people. The Chinese Summer of Discontent is here. There is a pressure cooker situation in China. There was a similar situation in USSR after 1986 when Chernobyl happened. Gorbachev acknowledged that USSR ultimately collapsed in 1991 due to that disaster. It took five years in a situation where Chernobyl was a pure accident. This is a situation where Chinese guilt in “Exploiting the Situation” is clear. If this is compounded by any fact that the virus leaked out of the Wuhan Virology Institute, the pressure in the cooker will only increase. All things considered; Corona is the Chinese Chernobyl. Change is afoot. Will the inflection point arrive to trigger the Chinese collapse? Will China face another revolution? Will China democratise? No direct answers now. The funny thing about revolutions is that it takes a tinder to light a forest fire. The Chinese Virus might have finally infected its own master. It is a slow burner. Boy, when it does explode it goes into an all-consuming fission. Watch out.

A piece of advice: Do not hug a Chinese, maintain twice the recommended social distance. That, in my vocabulary, is the Viral Distance!

(Lt Gen PR Shankar (retd) put Indian Artillery on a firm path of modernisation. He is presently a professor in Aerospace Department of IIT Madras. Views expressed in this article are personal.)

The Chinese Tech Trap India Needs To Be Wary Of

NEW DELHI: Some would say the message going out to China from India over the tweaked FDI law is simply this: Wuhan and Mamallapuram (informal summits) are fine but don’t meddle in our economy! Others say it underscores the classic dilemma for a country like India. It is hungry for foreign investment but cannot overlook the impact on national security that foreign penetration of its sensitive technology sector will have. So how deep is that penetration?

Here’s a study by Gateway House, the Mumbai-based think tank which came out with its findings in February. It says: “Eighteen of the 30 Indian unicorns have a Chinese investor. This means that China is embedded in Indian society, the economy, and the technology ecosystem that influences it.”

The study says that two dozen Chinese tech companies and funds led by giants Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance have financed 92 Indian start-ups including unicorns such as Paytm, Byjus, Oyo and Ola. It also makes the point that “Unlike a port or railway line, these are invisible assets in small sizes—rarely over $100 mn—and made by the private sector which doesn’t cause immediate alarm”.

Currently, such investments make up about 1.5 per of the total official Chinese FDI into India (including Hong Kong). But it doesn’t cover Chinese-owned money coming from Singapore and elsewhere, so the actual investment is much higher. The Gateway House study identified over 75 Chinese companies “with investors concentrated in e-commerce, fintech, media/social media, aggregation services and logistics”.

The success of Chinese investment can be traced directly to Indian start-ups’ heavy reliance on overseas venture capital funding—all start-ups worth over $1 billion are foreign funded. Some like Flipkart and Paytm have been acquired outright. India does not have a Sequoia or Google of its own. Start-ups need backers who can subsidise their losses: to date Paytm has losses of Rs 3,690 crore while Flipkart (owned by Walmart) has losses of Rs 3,837 crore.

Gateway House says “The spreading Chinese presence has enormous implications for India in terms of data security, propaganda and platform control”.

When it comes to data security, Alibaba and Tencent have their own ecosystem which includes online stores, payment gateways, messaging services and so on. An investment by such firms could see the Indian company pulled into the Chinese ecosystem with the probable loss of control over data. So if one of the venture capitalists Alibaba or Tencent takes the lead in advising the start-up, they may encourage the use of “pre-existing Chinese solutions” for its tech requirements, leading to loss of control over data.

So whether it is a taxi service, hotel aggregator or payment provider, all their data would end up in Chinese hands providing a complete profile of the service, its users and their habits. When the Chinese gaming company Kunlun took over Grindr, the LGBT hook-up app, it opened the doors to possible blackmail of its gay users who could be government servants. The U.S. government has ordered Kunlun to divest its stake in Grindr this year.

One could say the same rules should apply to Western companies. Sure, why not? But it must also be said that they function more transparently and are subject to greater oversight at home and overseas.

The Gateway House study then looked at the issue of censorship and influence that control over tech companies would give China. For instance, TikTok censors all topics the Chinese government considers sensitive. Given that TikTok has 200 million subscribers in India especially in Tier-II and Tier-III cities, also given that it has overtaken Youtube in India, and you have a situation to China’s advantage. There could be a subtle push to change or influence and shape the discourse on various issues in order to favour China’s position.

Also do note, China does not allow any foreign media to operate freely in its own country. Facebook and Twitter are banned, foreign TV news channels are censored and foreign journalists are kept on a tight leash.

Today there are two internets operating. The relatively free and open one dominated by Facebook and Amazon, and the Chinese internet which is controlled and regulated by the Chinese state. Alibaba and Tencent are enablers and beneficiaries of this internet, and if they are given free rein to replicate that internet in India, it means they will set the standards, the technology to be used and limit access to those they favour. So India will end up with an internet controlled by Beijing.

The tweak in the FDI law requiring prior approval by government of any foreign investment from our neighbourhood is timely. But it also implies delay in FDI approvals, which could put off potential investors. That’s a risk India will have to manage with some smart management. Most important, India will also have to secure its technology ecosystem and ensure the data flow is in Indian hands. There’s more hard work ahead.

 

(Also read https://stratnewsglobal.com/behind-chinas-hike-of-stake-in-hdfc-lies-a-pattern/)

Covid-19 Infections Should Plateau By April-End, Begin Dipping By Mid-May

NEW DELHI: The novel coronavirus is here to stay and will re-emerge from time to time as a human infection, warns Dr. K Srinath Reddy, President of the Public Health Foundation of India and a key figure in the government’s Covid-19 task force. He said that ecological degradation has resulted in a conveyor belt for viruses to travel from wildlife to veterinary populations and then on to humans. In an interview to StratNews Global Deputy Editor Parul Chandra, he said people must continue social distancing norms, strict personal hygiene and wear masks to contain the spread of the virus even in the post-lockdown period. Read on:

Q: With the countrywide Covid-19 lockdown now extended to May 3, how is it helping India contain the pandemic? By when do you expect the curve to flatten? And could the numbers spike once the lockdown is lifted?

A: The lockdown was intended to markedly slow down the speed of viral transmission, while the response capacity of the health, administrative and social systems are built up. It also prepares people to understand and accept the need for continued social distancing after the lockdown ends and life resumes at a controlled pace. It has catalysed multi-sectoral coordination, centre-state consultations and fostered a less acerbic political discourse that has at least temporarily transcended partisan divides in the interest of a unified national response.

I expect the infections to start levelling off by end of April and starting to dip by mid-May. The fall in deaths will take a couple of more weeks as there is lag time between virus entry into the body and death.  If we continue to observe social distancing and practice personal hygiene supplemented if possible, by the use of masks in public, we should be able to contain the spread even in the post-lockdown phase. We will still have the virus amidst us but we need not gift it the opportunity to leap from person to person. Lockdown is enforced discipline. Post-lockdown, personal discipline will be needed.

Q: The health ministry continues to maintain that India is yet to reach Stage 3 of the disease, i.e., community transmission? Is it really the case given that there have been reports of people with no history of recent travel abroad nor contact with someone who’s been abroad testing positive for Covid-19?

A: Different definitions have been used by different agencies to define community transmission. Without quibbling over terms, it is better for us to see if the transmission trail is mostly traceable to the first wave of virus transporters and their contacts or whether a large number of unrelated cases are cropping up beyond the clusters. So far, such a weed like sprouting of unrelated cases is not readily visible.

However, virtually every major country which has been visited by the virus so far has experienced community spread. It should be no surprise if we do too. The real question to be asked is how extensive is it and can we contain it before the virus claims the whole country as its captive territory in a swift swoop. We need to slow it down to limit loss of life till an effective vaccine is available or ‘herd immunity’ develops over an extended period of controlled exposure.

Q: While India is now ramping up the numbers of those being tested for Covid-19, should it have gone in for widespread testing from the initial stages itself just as countries like South Korea did?

A: South Korea has a much smaller population and produced its own kits in sufficient numbers. We did not have the kits to undertake that level of testing. It is also a mistake to associate only high testing levels with the success of South Korea while comparing with Italy which has an older population, a far higher proportion of women smokers and a high exposure to flights from China to the Lombardy region where the Chinese had a large workforce. India had to compete with OECD countries for test kits, while trying to ramp up production in the country.

Further, testing is neither infallible (false negative or false positive results can occur) nor predictive of future risk (a person who is negative today can get infected tomorrow). Data from China show that a low positivity rate on mass testing means that many resources will have to be consumed if case finding was to depend only on testing. Kerala has done well with much lower levels of testing compared to the USA and UK or even Delhi. Belgium and Bolivia have populations of the same size. Bolivia performed only 2.4% of the tests performed by Belgium but has so far had only 31 deaths compared to 5,453 in Belgium. So, it is simplistic to harp on widespread testing as the most important measure to combat this epidemic, without taking into account the socio-demographic and environmental conditions of the population.

Q: Will India’s already weak and overburdened public health systems be able to handle a full-blown Stage 3 scenario when even more advanced nations like the US, UK, France and Italy with far better public healthcare systems have struggled to cope with the pandemic?

A: The scale of the epidemic is much less severe so far in India, compared to those in OECD countries. We may benefit from the fact that we initiated partial containment measures early on from February, went into total lockdown in late March and are continuing it through April with slow and staggered relaxation. The predicted ‘avalanche’ has not happened so far and we may yet avoid a major surge in May. We have also given ourselves time to prepare the health system for a stronger response than would have been possible in mid-March.

Q: What lessons can India draw from this pandemic to improve its public health infrastructure?

A: India needs to recognise the value of investing in a robust health system, especially in a stronger public health component. From disease surveillance, forecasting and modelling to prevention, containment and primary care, there are many elements that need to be greatly strengthened. In the context of zoonotic infectious diseases, a  ‘one health’ surveillance system needs to be developed which integrates information of microbial spread in wildlife, veterinary population and human communities. Other infectious diseases as well as maternal and child health cannot be neglected. Non-communicable diseases and mental health need attention too. Universal health coverage is a commitment we must fulfil to the people. Apart from higher levels of public financing, it calls for health workforce expansion and strengthening of healthcare infrastructure. Health systems cannot suddenly develop surge capacity to meet public health emergencies if they have not been functioning well in the steady state.

Q: What are your thoughts on the manner  in which China contained the pandemic? Could China have alerted the world sooner about the new virus that was killing people in Wuhan?

A: I will respond as a public health observer and refrain from any political comment. We must distinguish between the local authorities in Wuhan and the national authorities of China.  The local authorities, both in the party and the civic administration, failed to take note early on and instead punished whistleblowers as ‘rumour mongers’. They were sacked for this misconduct by the national authorities who notified WHO in late December 2019. India responded early by stopping flights from China in February. Throughout January  and February, there was no adverse action or complaint concerning China from the USA, UK or the EU. It is only when there was a surge of cases in these countries, which had delayed their response, that complaints against China were voiced. The sequence of events suggests that China’s national government did not delay the warning to WHO or to other countries, though there were lapses at the provincial level in Wuhan.

Q: Has the WHO failed in its task of helping the world contain the spread of Covid-19 especially with many believing it took too long to declare it a pandemic?

A: The WHO is the world’s premier public health agency which has provided the platform for a concerted global action against many diseases. The declaration of a pandemic comes when several countries from many continents are involved. The label may have been delayed but the facts were available in public domain even before the formal declaration. Sometimes, inter-governmental bureaucracies, which have to go through consultations and data verification exercises with member states, may not be as nimble as independent agencies because of  in-built process delays. However, member states too have to act based on their best judgement. India did so, through several containment measures even before the lockdown. Countries which had delayed their own actions boast of great public health expertise and the best intelligence gathering ability in the world. Their delayed response is not explained by WHO’s actions.

Q: Is Covid-19 here to stay? And are we going to see more such instances of a pathogen crossing from animals to humans, something that’s being blamed on the damage humankind has been causing to the environment? 

A: The novel Coronavirus has emerged on this planet and will continue to stay, if not in humans then in an animal reservoir. It may re-emerge periodically as a human infection, given an opportunity created by humans. There is no doubt that ecological despoliation, especially deforestation and industrial farming of animal foods for human consumption, have created a conveyor belt for viruses to travel from wildlife to veterinary populations and then on to humans. We definitely need to change the way we are creating environmental havoc lest we unleash more zoonotic viruses upon ourselves. As we sow, so we shall reap.

 

Q: Scientists are racing against the clock to develop vaccines to combat the  virus? How long do you think it will take to develop a vaccine? 

A: Several countries are rushing to develop and test a vaccine against this virus. Two Indian firms have entered the global race and others too may join them. The development of a vaccine has several stages, from lab to animals to humans. Efficacy and safety of any candidate vaccine will have to be ascertained in clinical trials. All of these steps will take over a year to be completed. Then large scale production has to be organised, for the vaccine to be available across the world. Around 18 months is a possible timeline, if all steps proceed smoothly.

Masks, Sanitisers, PPE Kits, Ventilators—DRDO Turns New Leaf In Times Of Covid-19

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NEW DELHI: In times of the Chinese virus, India’s premier defence R&D agency DRDO has gone beyond its brief, coming up with innovations that can equip the nation in its fight against Covid-19. From making sanitisers and masks to personal protection equipment (PPE) kits and ventilators, the agency is doing it all. And to ramp up production, the formulae have been shared with various industries across the country, DRDO Chairman Dr G Satheesh Reddy tells StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale. Soon after the virus struck India, the agency started making sanitisers—nearly 2-3 lakh litres have so far been made and distributed in various parts of the country by DRDO’s 15-20 labs. DRDE, the lab in Gwalior that specialises in life sciences, has made three types of PPE kits that have been thoroughly tested and the technology has already been shared with seven industries for bulk production. The lab, which also tests PPE kits procured from abroad, has been shifted to New Delhi so that logistical wrinkles are ironed out. Over 500 scientists associated with the lab have been working around the clock, says Dr Reddy. Watch the interview for more.


‘Nathu-La Shocked China, This Was Not The Army Of 1962’

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NEW DELHI: Victories in battle generally carry more resonance than defeats but that’s the odd thing. Most Indians, even those of the current generation, know about India’s defeat in the 1962 war against China. But the Nathu-La/Cho La face off in 1967 evokes little response even though India came off better in those encounters. In the inaugural edition of Books Corner, StratNews Global talks to Probal Dasgupta whose book Watershed 1967: India’s Forgotten Victory Over China, throws light on the fierce gun battles and artillery duels in this remote corner of the Sikkim Himalayas.

The Chinese initiated it, evidently thinking India would succumb in the manner it did in 1962, but that didn’t happen. Dasgupta’s account is rich in detail, documenting the fight back by the Indian army and the role of humble sepoys like Timjong Lama. He credits Gen. Sagat Singh for rejecting the advice of his superiors to pull back his troops from the Nathu-La heights. That sage decision accounts for the tactical advantage India enjoys in this sector today. Dasgupta also believes Nathu-La convinced the Chinese not to take India at face value any more.

A book of this kind has been long in coming and all credit to Dasgupta who was able to trace some of the survivors of those battles living in obscurity all over the country. This book is a tribute to them, to their belief in themselves, and the training that helped them overcome the psychological effects of 1962. Dasgupta, if you haven’t already guessed it, is a former Gorkha Rifles officer. He did not serve at that time but credit to him, he was able to piece together diverse strands and people to bring you this, his first book. Yeh dil mange more!


When Diplomats Roll Up Sleeves & Charter Flights

NEW DELHI: Diplomacy isn’t all about swish evening soirees, fine food and wine or jetting around the globe for high-level meetings. It’s also about dealing with extraordinary situations such as the one presented by the Chinese virus with most of the world under lockdown.
It’s under these challenging circumstances that India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and foreign missions based here worked overtime to ensure foreign nationals could go home. Such evacuations are always daunting, and in the present case even more so with a highly infectious contagion. Besides, no commercial flights have been operating in or out of India since March 22, nor is any public transport available.

As an Indian diplomat involved in the evacuation operation told StratNews Global, “ In such evacuations we need micro-level information and coordination. Collecting the information and implementing it is a challenge during this period of lockdown.”

So far 35,000 foreign nationals from 48 countries have been evacuated from all parts of India. Russia, for instance, had evacuated 1,500 nationals by mid-April with flights for home taking off from New Delhi and Goa. The embassy of Thailand too has been busy arranging the evacuation of nearly 3,000 Thai nationals. It’s a Herculean task, no doubt, and here’s a look at how the MEA and foreign missions are going about it.

 

UNITED KINGDOM:

Acting British High Commissioner Jan Thompson (on the right) at an eerily quiet IGI airport to oversee arrangements for Britons being evacuated from India.

You may have seen her in videos with a mask on, informing British nationals stranded here about charter flights being arranged to send them home. Or even overseeing arrangements at the airport: Meet Jan Thompson, the UK’s Acting High Commissioner leading the charge to rescue stranded British citizens.

It’s a task that means reaching out via Twitter to anxious Britons stranded here as they await evacuation. On Easter, Thompson tweeted, “ Brits still stranded in India:wishing you the happiest Easter possible….Working to get you home as soon as possible, please bear with us.”

The UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) in a tweet on April 17 described the evacuation efforts in India as a “huge and logistically-complex operation” and said it was “working tirelessly with the Indian government and state authorities to help more British travellers get home.”

The British High Commission spokesperson in New Delhi said, “Over 3,700 British nationals have arrived back in the UK so far on charter flights organised by the UK government. At the end of the third round of charter flights announced on April 17, we will have helped over 9,000 people return to the UK. We are looking to arrange additional flights from locations in India where we know there are a large number of British nationals still stranded.”

The spokesperson said that 38 charter flights have flown from India to the UK between April 8 and 27. The latest flights will cover Mumbai, New Delhi, Goa, Amritsar, Ahmedabad and Bengaluru.

“India is a priority country for the UK government charter flights with a large number of Britons seeking to return and a lack of commercial options. Organising these flights is a huge and complex operation made more challenging by the size of the country and the restrictions on movement that are in place. Teams in India and London are continuing to work around the clock to overcome the obstacles and get people home,” said the spokesperson.

The spokesperson also said, “We are working closely with the Government of India, state governments and local authorities to ensure British travellers are able to return home safely. We are grateful for the support we have received to date.”

 

AUSTRALIA

Australian high commissioner-designate Barry O’Farrell talks about the extended flight ban in India and charter flights options currently available for Australians to return home.

Barely weeks since his arrival in India, Australia’s High Commissioner-designate Barry O’Farrell has been busy overseeing the repatriation of hundreds of his country’s nationals.

But not all of the 6,000 Australian nationals registered with the high commission want to return home. Those keen on getting back are required to register with the high commission. With no Australian airlines operating between the two countries, charter flights are being organised, O’Farrell said.

“The Ministry of External Affairs, the state governments and the police have been very cooperative,” O’ Farell said, adding that “We’re doing the paper-work for flights, organising transport for the citizens doing our own immigration and visa checks.”

Looking ahead, a flight leaves for Adelaide on Sunday from Delhi and another from Chennai. A third flight will leave for the same city from Mumbai.

 

GERMANY

The cafe in the German embassy in New Delhi has a new moniker, ‘EvaSituatRoom’

The German Embassy’s cafeteria has a new if temporary name: It’s the “EvacSituatRoom” meaning evacuation-situation room. It’s from here that the planning and logistical effort to fly German nationals home is being executed. Add to that the sprawling lawns of Ambassador Walter Lindner’s residence that were thrown open to their nationals wanting to go home. Of course this was in late March when the weather in Delhi was still balmy.

By Saturday (April 5), the German mission had managed to send home as many as 3,200 of their own and other European nationals on board 12 charter flights. Lindner confirmed in a statement on the embassy’s website that the flights began as early as March 25, the day after the lockdown was announced, and involved in picking up passengers from seven Indian cities flying them on to Frankfurt.

“The challenges were huge then, and are by no means less demanding today: countrywide lock-down (just extended until May 4th), more and more sealed-off hotspots, no flights and hardly any public transport, closed hotels and shops, localisation of individual travellers across a country bigger than Europe, necessary special permits, and the need to minimize exposure. Nevertheless, our “Team India” (Embassy and our 4 General Consulates) was always there for you – almost 24/7,” said the German envoy in a statement on Saturday.

Lindner admitted that with the rising number of Covid-19 cases in India and “hence growing restrictions of freedom of movement for everyone, including embassy and consulate staff and diplomatic cars, any endeavor of such kind is getting more and more complex and challenging.”

 

USA

“The United States mission to India has repatriated approximately 3,500 people to the United States on 15 international flights since March 31.” That was the US Embassy spokesperson in Delhi who also admitted that “It is difficult to say with any certainty exactly how many Americans intend to seek repatriation to the United States. We are now re-assessing demand for repatriation flights, and working to arrange a potential final set of special chartered flights for US citizens and their families departing India.”

Repatriation has also meant directing US nationals here to the nearest international airport amidst the nation-wide lockdown. As Alice G. Wells, a diplomat in the US State Department’s South Asia Bureau said, “we’re responding to requests for assistance from thousands of Americans located in cities and villages spread across a vast area.”

Blast From The Past: Glorious Chapters Of Indian Intelligence

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NEW DELHI: As a nation, it’s a constant eerie feeling if you share a border with an adversary, a scheming one at that. India knows it all too well, having Pakistan as its immediate western neighbour. There have been brazen attempts by the Pakistanis before at intrusion and the like but each of those misadventures has either been thwarted or given befitting responses by India. So what prepares the country for those tough situations? A peek into the enemy’s mind to pre-empt its motives. Here, the Intelligence agencies come in handy. Forewarned is forearmed, as they say. In this edition of ‘Simply Nitin’, StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale lists some scoops by Indian intelligence.


‘Born In Blood, Burnt By Coups, B’desh Has Reason For Optimism’

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NEW DELHI: The hanging of Capt. Majed, one of the conspirators in the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975, does not necessarily close the file. Key persons who took part in the assassination are still missing and the Bangladesh government would love to get its hand on them. In this edition of Talking Point, the flagship show on StratNews Global anchored by Deputy Editor Parul Chandra, we look back at a tumultuous period in the history of that country, one unfortunately bathed in blood. The discussants Nitin Gokhale and Surya Gangadharan, look at the role of young army officers in the assassination. Captains and majors with eight to ten years of service plotting to eliminate a charismatic president, who was also the founder of their republic.

What were their motivations? How come senior officers knew about it but kept quiet? What about the sepoys, many of whom appeared to hate their officers and were driven by some vision of revolution? More important, what does this portend for Bangladesh in the post-Sheikh Hasina years? There are no clear answers, but the hope is the years of social and economic progress under Prime Minister Hasina has given people including the army, a stake in continued growth and stability.


Over 3300 Coronavirus-infected Indians Stranded Abroad

NEW DELHI: As many as 3,336 Indians across 53 countries who have tested positive for the Coronavirus remain stranded abroad while another 25 have died on foreign shores as a result of the infection. Sources said the highest number of infected Indians, 785, is in Kuwait. It’s probably the reason why India sent a medical team there some days ago. Incidentally, Kuwait’s total Coronavirus infection tally by Thursday was 1,524.

Other Gulf states with a significant number of infected Indians still there are Qatar 420, Oman 297, UAE 238, Saudi Arabia 186 and Bahrain 185. A major chunk comprises blue collar workers desperate to return home. In Iran, 308 Indians who are Covid-19 positive still remain.

In south-east Asia, Singapore with its large expatriate population has the second highest number of Indians who have tested positive abroad, 634 while Malaysia has 37. Among other countries, Italy has 91 infected Indians, Portugal has 36, Ghana 29, US 24, Switzerland 15 and France 13.

While India halted its evacuation efforts once flights were suspended, the Ministry of External Affairs has been assisting foreign missions to evacuate their nationals from India. By Thursday, nearly 35,000 foreign nationals from 48 countries had been repatriated from India.

Within India, as the government steps-up the numbers being tested for the Coronavirus infection, 650,000 testing kits were expected to arrive from China on Thursday. Of these 5,50,000 are rapid antibody testing kits while 1,00,000 lakh are RNA extraction kits.

The Indian embassy in Beijing as well as the consulate in Guangzhou have played a key role in expediting the sourcing of these kits, sources said. There were challenges such as supply crunch, local regulations requiring registration and finally customs and flight clearances that were needed to ensure the testing kits were dispatched swiftly to India.

Indian missions in Korea, Malaysia, UK, France, Canada and the US have also got firm quotations from companies there to source more testing kits.

India is also sourcing more personal protection equipment (PPE) kits for its frontline medical workers. Indian missions “are closely coordinating with agencies abroad and a large consignment of PPE is expected shortly,” sources said. Incidentally, China had donated 1,70,000 PPE but nearly 50,000 failed quality control tests.

Thus far, the government has given the nod to supplying Hydroxychloroquine tablets to 55 countries including the U.S., UK, Russia and France. India is selling the drug to 21 countries while smaller quantities comprise grants, the sources said. These include Afghanistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. Seychelles and Mauritius have also been supplied with this drug.

While India has been laying emphasis on global efforts to fight the pandemic, it’s not commented yet on U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to stop funding to the World Health Organisation (WHO) while accusing it of mismanaging the pandemic.

“Our efforts and attention are fully focused on dealing with Covid-19 and the question can be revisited once we have addressed the crisis,” said sources.

Zoom Out

Zoom is doom! Therefore, India’s Cyber Coordination Centre of the Union Home Ministry has warned that the internet platform must not be used for official purposes. Zoom is based in San Jose, California but research by Citizen Lab of the University of Toronto turned up something disquieting. It said Zoom “appears to own three companies in China through which at least 700 employees are paid to develop Zoom’s software. This arrangement may make Zoom responsive to pressure from Chinese authorities.” Zoom has a large R&D wing in China. The company recently admitted it had routed user data through China “by mistake”. India isn’t buying that, convinced that Zoom could be used by China to infiltrate and eavesdrop on sensitive communication in this country.

US-Iran Standoff Threatens To Escalate As Iran’s Warships ‘Harass’ US Vessels At Sea

NEW DELHI: The Persian Gulf saw a repeat on Thursday of the games the US and Iran play (short of war of course). This time 11 armed boats of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps came to within 30 feet of six (much bigger) US naval vessels. So, if the exercise was to intimidate, the Iranians are unlikely to have got very far. The US was censorious warning that the “dangerous and provocative actions increased the risk of miscalculation and collision…”

Perhaps the Iranians wanted to send a message across of defiance. They had reason to. Washington has declared it is ramping up “maximum pressure” against Tehran and indicated it would oppose a $5 Bn IMF loan to help that country fight the coronavirus. Iran has officially reported over 4,000 deaths although health officials privately believe the number could be twice that.

Last month, the US had targeted the Iranian petrochemical industry, blacklisting companies still doing business with it. As US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, the new sanctions would “further Iran’s economic and diplomatic isolation.”

The big question is will these sanctions cripple the Iranian regime and pave the way for its overthrow? AK Pasha, professor at the Centre for West Asia Studies in JNU, and a specialist on Iran, doesn’t think so.

“The Americans have been imposing sanctions on Iran since the time of (former US president) Carter and they have had no effect. The second thing is that despite certain pockets of the country, the current regime is still popular. I estimate that of the 85 million people in Iran, around 50 million still support the regime because of state benefits every month.”

While claiming it wants to see the current clerical order in Tehran replaced by a democratic one, the US is backing the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MeK), a group derided by a government report in 2009 for “its cultic practices and deceptive recruitment and public relations strategies.”

The Mujahedin e-Khalq (MeK-People’s Mujahedin Organisation) began in 1965 as a virulently anti-Shah and anti-US group. But politics is the art of the possible and today the group has powerful US supporters include former NSA John Bolton and Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who describes it as “Iran’s government in exile.” The group is led by Maryam Rajavi, who is currently in exile in Albania.

Maryam Rajavi, head of Iran’s largest national opposition group, the Mujahedin e-Khalq meets Donald Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani on March 18, 2018. (Source: https://www.maryam-rajavi.com/)

The MEK’s stated claim is to overthrow the regime and bring democracy to Iran. But its support base remains small. According to Prof. Pasha, “The MEK and other Opposition parties have pockets of support but not on a national scale, so their influence is limited. The regime has been quick to crack down on opposition groups. Journalists are harassed, newspapers are closed down.”

Maryam Rajavi meets with a US Senate delegation in Tirana, Albania on August 12, 2017 (Source: https://www.maryam-rajavi.com/)

Iran also has important allies. Beijing sees Tehran as crucial to its BRI initiative while Moscow sees it as a crucial partner in the future for oil and gas – Iran has the second-largest gas reserves in the world. Turkey also sees Iran as an important link to counter Saudi Arabia’s influence in the region. These countries continue to buy Iranian oil and gas and Iranian non-oil exports to these countries continue.

Pasha believes that the sanctions will leave Iran even less inclined to do any business with the US. “A lot depends on Khamenei. The Supreme Leader has been key in the ‘no talks, no succumbing, no kneeling before the US’ posture by Iran. If he’s not there, it remains to be seen if Iran’s president and the new Supreme Leader can handle the internal protests and the US in the same manner. That remains a big question mark.”

Behind China’s Hike Of Stake In HDFC Lies A Pattern

NEW DELHI: In the wake of the Coronavirus, China is unlikely to figure in any popularity contest anywhere in the world. And particularly in the Indian context, China is viewed in almost adversarial terms for a range of reasons, including its huge bilateral trade surplus, the cosy strategic nexus with Pakistan and so on.

Which is why when it became known that the People’s Bank of China (the equivalent of India’s Reserve Bank) had hiked its stake in HDFC to one per cent, there was consternation, disquiet, and unease. HDFC is among India’s best known and a heavyweight in the housing sector.

Some of the business papers quoted unnamed sources in the Finance Ministry as expressing reservations about the Chinese investment. But as economist Rajat Kathuria of the Delhi-based policy think tank ICRIER pointed out: “there’s nothing anybody can do about this because it is within the rules, is therefore legal and above board”.

In fact, Kathuria said the investment by the People’s Bank had begun in January this year. It came out only a few days ago when HDFC disclosed the investment to the stock exchange. People’s Bank currently holds 1.75 crore shares in HDFC, which amounts to nearly Rs 3000 crore. Its stake in the bank now goes up to one percent from 0.8 per cent (which it has held since March last year).

Kathuria says the People’s Bank is following a smart strategy. “It is buying low-priced assets all over the world and recall HDFC had lost around 25 to 30 per cent of its share value last year amounting to around Rs 30,000 crore. It nevertheless remains a prized asset for a number of reasons.”

The long term perspective from China is that the Indian market can only grow post-Coronavirus. The investment in HDFC is not so much a “flight to safety” (which is what investment in gold would be) but a “search for yield”. People’s Bank is looking at the opportunities on the horizon and since it is flush with funds, it has the flexibility to explore and invest. The Coronavirus may have made domestic investment and manufacturing in China difficult but it can buy financial assets overseas. HDFC fits in with that reasoning.

But it has also underscored widespread suspicions in India about China’s investment in e-commerce. Government sources said there were at least 21 Chinese firms involved in Indian e-commerce activity.

These included the Alibaba Group of entrepreneur Jack Ma with an investment of $146 mn in grocery supplier BigBasket. Its subsidiary Ant Financial has invested $200 mn in Zomato, the online food supplier. Tencent Holding has invested $100 mn in Dream 11, a “fancy sport platform”. There are others ranging from phone maker Xiaomi to less well known Shunwei Capital that have put money into Indian e-commerce.

The Chinese would have rather their hike in investment in HDFC not have drawn the attention it did. It makes it a target, vulnerable to criticism and one can therefore expect them to keep as low profile as possible. But Chinese investment, especially FDI, is not a bad thing. It brings money, technology and, most important, jobs.

In his insightful research into Chinese investment in India titled Following The Money: China Inc.’s Growing Stake In India-China Relations, journalist Ananth Krishnan argues that “for the first time, Chinese companies are seeking to establish a long term presence in India and their acquisitions in Indian companies give them an enduring stake in the Indian market.”

He notes that Chinese investment in India has crossed $26 bn and it includes a significant number of FDI projects. Among the earliest to set up a production facility in India was Sany, the Changsha-based construction company rated the world’s sixth largest. It set up a plant in Chakan in Maharashtra a decade ago, investing $86 mn (Rs 600 crore) and now has a 50 per cent market share in truck cranes. Its turnover has crossed $144 million (Rs.1000 crore). Liugong is another construction major from China (world’s 10th largest), which has invested $43 mn (Rs 300 crore) in a plant in Pithampur, Madhya Pradesh. The company is using India as a hub to export to this region and Africa.

China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation is building locomotive engines at a plant in Haryana and is supplying coaches to Nagpur and Kolkata metros. Another firm, the China Railway Construction Corporation is bidding to lay 3000 km of highways, a contract worth nearly $6 bn (about Rs 40,000 crore), which if successful, could be the single biggest contract awarded to a Chinese firm. The Xining Group has, in a joint venture with Indian partners, set up an iron-ore pelletisation plant in Karnataka in 2011 at a total cost of over $1 bn (over Rs 8,700 crore) and is now in the second phase where it is building a three million tonne steel plant. Ironically, it was once part of the People’s Liberation Army.

Chinese firms are getting into India’s highly competitive automobile market with plans to invest millions into building cars including SUVs and electric buses. These are being done through the joint venture route or on their own. TBEA has put up the first China-led industrial park in Gujarat.

Ananth Krishnan acknowledges lack of clarity on Chinese investment in India’s tech sector. This is because money is coming in through different routes, from Singapore and Hong Kong to Mauritius. Indian ministries often maintain incomplete records of money coming in through the “automatic route” and through the “government approved” route.

In many ways, China’s move resembles what the Japanese did in the 1990s. Japanese companies with cash in hand snapped up properties, factories, hotels and what have you all over the U.S. Japan had huge trade surpluses with the world including and especially the U.S. It occasioned resentment in the latter. Today the U.S.-China trade war mirrors Washington’s resentment of Japan of that period.

Post-Coronavirus, every country out there will be looking for investment to boost sagging economies, India included. They won’t have to look far: China is sitting on piles of cash and wants to invest. India can take it with all its advantages and disadvantages or look for some other formula.

SL Ranked 9th In Global Response To Infectious Diseases (GRID) Index

COLOMBO: Sri Lanka, and its President Gotabaya Rajapaksa have been ranked 9th in the Global Response to Infectious Diseases (GRID) index.

The GRID index is designed to rank how efficiently and effectively the leadership of the country and the preparedness of its health system were in tackling the COVID-19 pandemic.

The results are published in a paper titled GRIDTM Index: Tracking the Global Leadership Response in the COVID-19 Crisis by the Institute of Certified Management Accountants (Australia) (ICMA).

New Zealand and its leader Jacinta Arden have been ranked first in the GRID index. The U.S., led by President Donald Trump in its COVID-19 responses fares abysmally in the rankings.

Other countries that did well in the GRID Index were Singapore, Iceland, Finland, Norway, Canada, South Korea, Hong Kong, , the UAE, Japan and Taiwan.

 

(By arrangement with themorning.lk)

Trump Halts WHO Funding Over Coronavirus ‘Cover-Up’

NEW DELHI: On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump dropped a bombshell, cutting off $400 million in funding for the World Health Organisation (WHO), accusing it of mishandling the Coronavirus outbreak by overlooking China’s many missteps. But he hinted it may be only temporary.

“I am directing my administration to halt funding while a review is conducted to assess the World Health Organization’s role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the Coronavirus,” he told journalists during a White House press briefing, adding that the WHO had accepted China’s claims about the Coronavirus at “face value”. He described as “disastrous” its opposition to the U.S. imposing travel restrictions on people coming from China.

China, which contributes 10 per cent to the WHO (against 15 per cent by the U.S.), jumped to the agency’s defence, warning that the decision would undermine international cooperation at a time when it was most needed. China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Zhao Lijian said: “This U.S. decision will weaken the WHO’s capabilities and undermine international cooperation.” He underscored that “China will as always support the WHO in playing an important role in international public health and global anti-epidemic response” but did not indicate if his country would make up the deficit in the agency’s budget.

The Chinese support for the WHO comes at a time when the role of its director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has been under increasing criticism over the Coronavirus outbreak. Ghebreyesus, who was elected WHO chief with China’s backing, is widely perceived as doing Beijing’s bidding. He has been criticised for attempting to cover up the virulent outbreak in China and delaying its formal declaration as a pandemic.

Critics say Trump is trying to cover up his own mishandling of the Coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. He initially dismissed it and by the time he got his act together thousands had died with the death toll overtaking China’s. Others see echoes of Trump’s anti-UN posture: Recall in 2017 the U.S. withdrew from UNESCO after the agency admitted Palestine as a member. Then again, in 2018 he cut off funding for the UN Relief & Works Agency which oversees development in the Palestinian territories. It turned out he had nothing against the agency as such, his problem was the Palestinians whom he accused of not striking a peace deal with Israel!

COVID-19: ‘Airlines Need To First Survive Before Looking To Revive’

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NEW DELHI: India’s tourism and aviation sector was the first to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and will probably be the last to recover. In industry parlance it’s called a much larger head and tail. The crisis is seen as having a worse impact than 9/11 or the 2008-09 financial meltdown. According to KPMG, the World Travel and Tourism Council has estimated that the coronavirus will cost the tourism sector at least $ 22 billion and the travel sector will shrink by up to 25 per cent in 2020, resulting in the loss of a staggering 50 million jobs.

Sanjay Datta, the Asia President of travel related umbrella body SKAL International, breaks down the assessment of the International Air Transport Association, that the global revenue loss for the passenger business this year, could be between $63 billion and $ 114 Billion. In conversation with StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P. Revi, he also looks at the impact on the Indian tourism and hospitality industry, which is staring at potential job losses of around 38 million people, around 70 per cent of the total workforce. Mr Datta says he sees travel going down by 50-60% over the next 18 months.


Taliban Drafts ‘Charter’ for Future Govt: Document

KABUL: A draft of a Taliban charter consisting of a list of rules, presumably intended as a guide for the potential future governance of Afghanistan, was shown to TOLOnews by a government source. Titled “The charter of the Islamic emirate of Afghanistan,” the list of articles looks very similar to those of the former Taliban regime, which was in power in Kabul from 1996 to 2001.

The charter, which calls for the establishment of an Islamic emirate, has 149 articles which include a broad range of topics covering how laws will be passed to the mandate for a white flag.

The charter suggests that the Taliban’s plans for their “future government” are not very different from the policies of their former regime.

According to the document, final decisions in all affairs are made by the emir, and the Islamic emirate is not obliged to implement United Nations laws that are in contravention of Islamic values.

The charter says that free speech, human rights, and civil rights are to be implemented within the framework of Islamic teachings.

The charter clearly states that “an Islamic emirate” will be the system of governance, and says that proposed legislation will be enacted only after bills are agreed upon by the “leadership council,” the “ulema council” (religious leaders), as well as the emir or his deputy.

Throughout the charter, the authority of the ulema council, and its interpretation of Islamic sharia law, is firmly established.

For example, the Islamic emirate’s stance on “all political issues” is approved or rejected by the leadership council or by the ulema council, and all legislation is approved by the emir or his deputy after an agreement by the leadership council and the ulema council.

Jalaluddin Shinwari, a former Taliban member who served as the chief justice during the Taliban regime in Kabul, said the Taliban still wants an Islamic emirate. “So far this is their demand,” said Shinwari.

Significantly, the language of the charter suggests that executive leaders will not be decided through an election, as called for in the Afghan Constitution, but rather by way of the Ahl al-hall wal-aqd – “the people of losing and binding,” a term used in a political context in Islam that gives authority to a group qualified to appoint or remove a leader.

A new emir can also be selected by the choice of the outgoing emir.

The draft of the charter also states that the emir has the “full authority” to select or remove any member of the Islamic emirate and “no one has the right to violate his decision.”

Article 45 says the Islamic emirate has two councils in its structure: the leadership council and the ulema council – that will help in expediting and improving political activities and in solving problems.

Although the policies in the charter are dramatically different from those established by the current Afghan Constitution, some analysts say the selection of the future government is the choice of Afghans, and even an emirate can be established if it is the will of the nation.

“A republic or another type of government will be established if the nation wants it,” said Faiz Mohammad Zaland, a university lecturer.

Article 63 says the ulema council prepares all legislations, decrees and laws of the Islamic emirate within the framework of the Islamic sharia, which alarms many individuals and groups who worry about losing rights granted by the Afghan Constitution.

Human rights, women’s rights, freedom of speech, the Afghan media, and girls education are among the country’s achievements after 9/11, and activists and analysts say these gains should not be ignored in the peace process.

The deputy head of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, Mohammad Naeem Nazari, said the contents mentioned in the charter are “clearly contradicting” the values of democracy and human rights.

Education is also addressed: Article 106 of the charter says that Islamic and modern sciences are a must for all educational institutions – schools and madrassas–in the curriculum for a bachelor’s degree. Also, Islamic sciences should encompass 30 to 50% of the curriculum, the charter says.

The charter does not give details on the education of women and girls.

Also included is the article of al-amr bi-l-maʿrūf wa-n-nahy ʿani-l-munkar (Ordering the good and forbidding the evil), which refers to the department that applies harsh punishments to those convicted of crimes. But there is a line stating that this will be “reviewed” if it needs an amendment.

Human rights activists say that practicing such rules mentioned in the charter will take the country back to where it was at the end of the Taliban regime in 2001.

The head of the Kabul-based Afghanistan Human Rights Organization, Lal Gul Lal, said Afghans “should not start from the beginning once again.”

He said the country has “advanced through many phases” in democracy, freedom of speech and human rights.

The Taliban has not commented on the charter.

This comes as delegates of the Afghan government and Taliban members are expected to begin intra-Afghan negotiations in the near future.

‘300,000 Indian Crew On Cruise, Merchant Ships ‘At Sea’ During Pandemic’

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NEW DELHI: The 300,000 Indians who make up 10% of the world’s seafaring community, have been hit extremely hard by the coronavirus pandemic. Captain Sanjay Parashar, Chairman of the International Maritime Foundation says nearly 60,000 crew on 200 cruise ships lost their jobs virtually overnight. In conversation with StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P.Revi he pointed to the uncertainty facing 2.4 lakh Indian sailors on merchant vessels (even those on leave) as global lockdowns and grounded flights means they remain where they are. Two Indians are reported dead of the coronavirus, one in Miami in the US, and while the body of the other is currently on a ship travelling from the U.S. to Europe.

The pandemic has also hit India’s ports in terms of cargo being loaded and offloaded, which affects the livelihoods of 200,000 + stevedores and supporting unorganised workers. There was also the case of 150 out-of-contract stranded sailors in Iran, who have been abandoned by ship owners and agents and can’t be flown home because of travel restrictions. Having been involved in 95 similar cases and supervised the rescue of 600 sailors in the past, he says, “Captain Sushma Swaraj the Anchor is being missed dearly during the coronavirus outbreak.”

Captain Prasher joined the merchant navy in 1990 and is currently Chairman of International Maritime Federation (IMF), and Vice President of the Forum for Integrated National Security, a think tank which also looks at the security and human rights of seafarers.