Facebook Linkedin Twitter Youtube
Monday, April 21, 2025
Facebook Linkedin Twitter Youtube
Home Blog Page 562

Economic Recovery Post-Corona: What India Needs To Do

By
Surya Gangadharan;
-

NEW DELHI: Here’s a damper for those who believe a quick economic recovery is on the cards once the Coronavirus is done and dealt with. Economists say any recovery could well hinge on when the vaccine is made available and, as of now, that may take 12-18 months if not longer.

“It means the protectionist policies being implemented in so many countries will continue,” warns Rajat Kathuria, head of the Delhi-based economic policy think tank ICRIER. “When things go wrong, people become more inward-looking, less inclined to take risks. The fiscal stimulus we see in many countries is required to keep local businesses ticking over but it is the protectionist policies that need to be reviewed once the vaccine is ready.”

But few would care to bet on the world post the virus. What’s clear is that India’s GDP numbers are headed south. Currently, only GDP numbers for the December 2019 quarter are available showing 4.7 per cent growth, which reflected the previous quarter’s weak manufacturing, falling exports on the back of weak consumer demand and private investment. This was in the context of the global slowdown.

So is India in recession? Kathuria says that technically, a recession is defined as GDP decline over two successive quarters, so one will have to wait for the March 2020 quarter figures (which will be available in June), to establish a recession. But this is just semantics. The virus on top of the global slowdown indicates (as far as the Indian economy goes), the $3 trillion GDP falling to perhaps $2.75 trillion (where that leaves Narendra Modi’s $5 trillion economy is best left to imagination).

Celebrated economist Richard Baldwin put it in a nutshell when he pointed out that the Coronavirus “is as contagious economically as medically. It has hit the largest economies in the world; that means the world economy will have an enormous impact from this, in particular global trade will collapse rapidly, hopefully not for very long but rapidly.”

How can this situation be best managed? During the 2008 financial crisis, the G20 economies got together to formulate and implement a rescue plan. The current crisis is similar but the responses are not coordinated since the effort is to revive domestic economies. This ranges from fiscal stimulus to check bankruptcies to ensuring people have enough food in their bellies, and layoffs by industry are kept to the minimum. This has also required authorities to ensure medical equipment and treatment is easily available. Kathuria believes this is necessary but it must be followed by economic recovery and measures to ensure that recovery is sustainable. This calls for coordinated macroeconomic policies across the world, trade and investment flows must get back on track and current blocks on the export of sanitary and phytosanitary products need to be undone.

Here the role of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) is critical. It alone has the heft to free up global trade flows, ensure countries don’t get protectionist, for example, by refusing to allow the export of medical equipment or pharma products. There was even a problem with the export of APIs crucial to the pharma industry. But at this critical time, the WTO has been defanged, emasculated by the U.S. (in the same manner it is attacking the World Health Organisation). Its appellate body has been rendered ineffective with the U.S. refusing to nominate judges.

India may find the recovery process particularly difficult given the size of the country and the huge population, many living in densely packed clusters in urban areas. The infected numbers coming out of places like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are low and therefore the suspicion the worst is yet to come. Then again enforcing “social distancing” norms is tough and not easy to sustain for long.

Nevertheless, this is an opportunity to reboot given the many missteps by India in the areas of climate change, infrastructure including medical infrastructure and public health, education and so on. Economists say India has followed a “flawed growth model” where people don’t have savings, no education and no access to healthcare. Government needs to work on this post-Corona.

More important, the government needs to leverage the opportunities provided by the worldwide backlash against China, which is seen as responsible for the Coronavirus and misled the world. Businesses and industry are looking for alternative destinations to invest. Japan has set apart a fund of over $2 billion to help its industry in China move elsewhere. This is an opportunity for India.

Kathuria notes that India has missed two such windows in the past, the first when China’s economic rise began (which Bangladesh and Vietnam took advantage of) and again during the U.S.-China trade war. India cannot afford to miss this opportunity.

“We have phenomenal advantages: cheap labour, a huge domestic market, India is the only alternative to China where industry can scale up,” says Kathuria, “this is our opportunity to reboot, re-size and upscale.”

‘$8 Billion Vaccine Fund, A Signal World Won’t Let U.S. Stop Global Fight’

By
Amitabh P. Revi;
-
YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: Global health reformer, Professor Ilona Kickbusch discusses the goal of accelerating the development of a vaccine for the coronavirus with an $8 billion fund and the ethics of lockdowns, tracing and tracking those infected, in this conversation with StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P. Revi. With vast experience in the WHO, government and as an academic, also as a health and political science expert, she looks at the geo-political fallout of the U.S. pulling funding from the WHO, Australian proposals for stringent inspector regimes, accountability and the double standards of the global system. As a member of the independent Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, Professor Kickbusch commended it for being broad-based and inclusive, and therefore the appropriate forum for taking such public and international health issues forward.

She highlighted German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s role in becoming the public face of government action against the pandemic and winning the people’s trust (her approval ratings are above 80%). With the lives versus livelihood balance being different in every country, she said it was essential for governments to build public trust. She acknowledged that the pandemic may have sidelined other diseases like Polio, TB and Ebola, but she believes that the health infrastructure built up including trained community workers is an incredible public health resource.

Professor Ilona Kickbusch advises countries on global health strategies and trains health specialists and diplomats in global health diplomacy. She is a member of the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB), an independent monitoring and accountability body to ensure preparedness for global health crises. Professor Kickbusch has had a distinguished career in the WHO, government, and academia. She led the International Health Division at Yale University and has been part of the Health 2020, the European health policy framework and the independent Ebola interim assessment panel of the WHO. Professor Kickbusch has been awarded the Cross of the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany in recognition of her invaluable contributions to innovation in governance for global health and global health diplomacy. She has a deep India connection, having grown up in Chennai when her father was a diplomat.


Uproar Forces Nepalese PM Oli To Scrap Ordinances That Threatened Federal Polity

By
Parul Chandra;
-

NEW DELHI: ‘Undermining Loktantra’ (Undermining Democracy)–“Yet, it seems that the large mandate has been entirely misinterpreted by the man in charge of both the ruling party and the federal government, Prime Minister KP Oli. It is no secret that Oli has been critical of the move towards federalism from the start. It is also not news that Oli has, time and again, embraced authoritarian tendencies over more cooperative and democratic ones.”–Editorial in The Kathmandu Post, April 24.

April 24 is celebrated as Democracy Day in Nepal but there’s been little to celebrate. Rather Prime Minister K.P.Sharma Oli, despite failing health (he underwent a second kidney transplant last month) and related uncertainties, focused more on shoring up his diminishing political standing than anything else (coronavirus included).

On April 20 his cabinet approved two controversial ordinances, approved post-haste by President Bidhya Devi Bhandari (questions are being raised about her role). One ordinance sought changes in Nepal’s Political Party Act, making it legal if 40% of MPs or central committee members of any party wanted to break away and form a separate party. Until now, it had to be 80 members drawn from both the central committee and parliament.

The other ordinance sought changes in the functioning of the constitutional council, a body representing all pillars of government (from PM to speaker and chief justice). It proposed to replace the unanimous mode of decision making on key constitutional matters, to one by majority vote. Both ordinances were seen as attempts to undermine Nepal’s federal democratic polity.

The respected Kathmandu Post summed it up aptly: “It is no secret that Oli has been critical of the move towards federalism from the start. Many essential bills that would strengthen democracy have been waylaid, while many controversial ones have been encouraged. ”

Following a torrent of criticism, both ordinances were repealed. But analysts say democracy was hardly the issue. PM Oli was looking to ensure his position in the event his Nepal Communist Party (NCP) fell apart. Although it has a two-thirds majority in parliament, the NCP is actually a merger of Oli’s parent Nepal Communist Party (Unified Marxist Leninist), and the Maoists led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’.

Oli and Prachanda co-chair the party but it’s been an uneasy relationship with the former unwilling to yield power to the latter. Prachanda has been pressing Oli to adhere to the gentlemen’s agreement they had, wherein the co-chairs were to head the government for an equal time period. Oli, though has shown no inclination to yield

Prof. S.D.Muni of Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University said: “There is a lot of political flux in Nepal right now triggered by the pandemic. Oli’s problem is that he is facing serious internal problems within the NCP which itself is deeply divided. Prachanda who is very upset since Oli is showing no signs of sharing power, made his move during the pandemic, demanding a national government. Oli made a counter move by coming up with the ordinance on political parties.”

The counter move was a signal to two Madhesi parties comprising Nepalis of Indian origin, the Samajbadi Party and the Rastriya Janata Party, that he was ready to break with the ruling coalition and join hands with them to form a new government. Instead, the Madhesi parties announced their merger to form the united Janata Samajbadi Party. Their move was apparently orchestrated by India whose unhappiness with Oli’s pro-China tilt has been quite evident.

For now some kind of stalemate is evident. But Oli’s government has been faltering on social and economic delivery. Oli’s cronies are reported to be running the show given his ill health. Prof Muni believes Oli could survive if a national government was formed although his powers would be severely diluted. But Oli is not inclined to see a dilution in his power and status. So expect more manoeuvers and backstabbing as the politicians up their game.

A Bruised Post-Covid World: Can Indian Cuisine Lend A Healing Touch?

By
Anoothi Vishal;
-

NEW DELHI: In a world ravaged by Covid-19, one of the casualties seems to be the spread of India’s culinary cultures. With restaurants shut and unlikely to operate in quite the same way globally, the rise and rise of Indian cuisines internationally in the last few years has been stemmed for now. Once restaurants do open again in what used to be the dining capitals of the world, it is debatable how many consumers will seek out newer, unfamiliar cuisines even as the restaurant industry itself downsizes drastically.

“It is a very scary situation. The only way of survival will be to downsize. People will be scared to make investments in the F&B space globally now,” points out chef and restaurateur Ritu Dalmia, whose restaurants and catering business in Milan have been severely impacted. With an investment by industrialist Analjeet Singh in her business, Dalmia had been setting sights on growing a European restaurant empire—in cities like Milan, Madrid, Lisbon—and consequently help grow awareness about Indian culinary cultures, historically quite low in continental Europe.

In Milan, for instance, her restaurants Cittamani and Spica had been familiarising conservative Italian diners with dishes like kadhi, kachori and Bombay street food in a contemporary way instead of stereotypical tandoori naan and dal makhni. Dalmia hopes that “people’s sense of adventure will not change” in the post-Covid world “but eating out will be much lesser,” she apprehends.

In New York, where a spate of new wave Indian restaurants like Gupshup, Rahi, Bar Bar, Indian Accent et al were taking Indian cuisine forward and giving younger diners a chance to identify with a modern, self-confident Indian identity, restaurant collapse will obviously put this growing pop appeal on hold. While “Indian cuisine’s growing popularity will not be stemmed”, as restaurateur Jimmy Rizvi of Gupshup says, “it will certainly slow down, especially in a market like New York, where people are now scared of eating out, and where only the most competitive restaurants will survive.”

However, amidst all these fears, there seems to be a silver lining. In Kuala Lumpur, Nadodi, that had been pushing the boundaries of south Indian food with dishes like fish head curry espuma and zero-wastage rasam brewed in a coffee siphon; left-over peels used in a cocktail, is seeing surprisingly more takers for its recently started delivery service. Described by the Michelin Guide as a “flavourful disruptors of south Indian cuisine”, the restaurant used to serve degustation only menus but has now started delivering a more simplified menu, which is priced higher than the popular Banana Leaf restaurants in the country.

Kartik Kumar, brand director of Nadodi says he has been surprised at how many takers there are for their relatively more expensive Nadodi delivery menu. “Patrons of Nadodi seem to have liquidity for spending Ringitt 180-200 per order for takeaway. I feel, people will look out for the best” at the higher end of the spectrum, he adds, while restaurants that catered to the mass market and middle class customers will be more impacted as that segment will have lesser money to spare on eating out.

One reason, Kumar says, why more people at least in KL (with a big south Indian diaspora) seem to be patronising Indian food is because of the therapeutic value associated with spices, according to alternate healing systems such as Ayurveda.

While Chinese food seems to be looked upon with some suspicion by diners, in contrast, “people are ordering more Indian as they feel spices are therapeutic. Rasam is considered good for the immune system because of antioxidants and spice blend,” Kumar says.

In London, chef Sameer Taneja of Benares is also realising how spices and the perception of their Ayurvedic goodness may eventually aid Indian cuisines in the post-Covid world. “My former boss Pierre Koffmann (a celebrated French chef whose restaurant La Tante Claire in London won the coveted three Michelin stars) called me up the other day to ask about how to drink turmeric in his morning drink. I wouldn’t believe my mum, when she ran after me with a glass of doodh haldi 30 years ago, about its benefits… funny to think of it now,” says Taneja.

This global perception of super ingredients like turmeric and other therapeutic spices may grow wider in the time to come. London based TV chef and cookbook author Manju Malhi says, “UK supermarkets have been getting record sales. This is a time when people are using diverse ingredients because regular stuff is sold out. That is a good thing in the long run, as people may get a taste for Indian foods and ingredients like this.”

If that happens it will mean that Indian cuisines with their underpinnings in Ayurveda and complex spicing will finally be able to break free from the “curry” stereotype and find wider recognition as one of the great “fine” cuisines of the world—a position held by French for a very long time, in the post World War II years.

 

(The writer is a food critic, columnist and author. Views expressed in this article are personal.)

Seven Weeks After Polls, Guyana Awaits A Recount

By
Shubha Singh;
-

NEW DELHI: Oil and politics can make for a deadly cocktail as Guyana, a small country on the Atlantic coast of South America, has discovered. More than a month after elections were held, the country remains embroiled in a bitter dispute over the results, with the West threatening sanctions after the Georgetown district election office declared incumbent President David Granger the winner even though counting was still going on.

Public protests led to street violence which resulted in the death of one person. Western diplomats, election observers from the Commonwealth, CARICOM (Caribbean Community) and OAS (Organisation of American States) and other international observers questioned the credibility of the election. Guyana’s High Court intervened and gave directions for a recount of the disputed votes.

India has stressed the importance of a “credible, fair and transparent” electoral process while a statement from the UK foreign office warned that any government sworn in on the basis of non-credible results would face strong international condemnation as well as serious consequences. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned of economic sanctions if the election result was not fair. But the impasse continues.

It seems to have exacerbated tensions between the two largest communities, the Afro-Guyanese, who are descendants of African slaves and comprise 30 per cent of the population and the Indo-Guyanese of Indian origin who make up 40 per cent. Amerindians, Chinese, Portuguese and Europeans form the rest.

Polling was held on March 2, with the opposition People’s Progressive Party (of Indian origin) challenging Granger over mismanagement of the country’s recently discovered offshore oil fields estimated at 8 billion barrels. But a major controversy erupted over the production sharing agreements the government signed with US oil giant ExxonMobil. The opposition also questioned the composition of a sovereign debt fund constituted for depositing the oil revenues. The prospect of huge gains from crude oil sales added an edge to the election campaigns, increasing suspicions on both sides.

A delegation of top CARICOM leaders persuaded opposition leader and former two-term president Bharrat Jagdeo and caretaker President Granger to agree to a full recount supervised by CARICOM observers. But the agreement derailed when a ruling alliance member obtained a court injunction against the proposal. The injunction was dismissed by the Supreme Court which directed that all votes be counted again. The direction was upheld by a Court of Appeal. But the string of controversies did not end there.

The chief election officer proposed a 156-day-long procedure for counting the ballots. Threats were made that the CARICOM observers would be quarantined (under coronavirus rules). Another proposal for a televised 10-day counting process was put forward. But a full meeting of the election commission has yet to set the modalities for the recount. It is now seven weeks since the March poll but a final, acceptable election result is still not in sight.

(The writer is a senior journalist and author. Views expressed in this article are personal)

How Sikkim’s Merger With India Came About

By
Nitin A. Gokhale;
-
YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: It’s India’s least populous state but a strategic one that houses the Nathu La pass leading to Tibet. The kingdom wasn’t part of the hundreds of princely states in the sub-continent that merged with India in 1947 after Independence, thanks to the efforts of India’s first Home Minister Sardar Patel. But then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru wanted Sikkim out. It remained that way till 1972 when Nehru’s daughter Indira Gandhi, as Prime Minister, took note of the Sikkim king’s moves that were inimical to India’s security. He was told to relent but he did not. That’s when India launched a 27-month covert intelligence operation, without military intervention or creating a fuss that the world would have taken note of. In this edition of ‘Simply Nitin’, StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale narrates how Sikkim became the 22nd state of the Indian Union.


Stake In Jio: Facebook Makes A ‘Mark’, What’s Up For Data Privacy?

By
Ashwin Ahmad;
-

NEW DELHI:  Mark Zuckerberg had famously declared in 2019 that “the future is private.” But data privacy or the possible lack of it is the big question on everyone’s minds after Facebook inked a deal with Reliance Jio, the telecom unit of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) providing $5.7 billion (Rs 43,574 crore) for a 9.99 percent stake in the company.

 

Mark Zuckerbeg, CEO of Facebook, makes a video statement on the Facebook-Jio deal .

 

Will Facebook ‘Influence’ Reliance? 

Post the deal, Facebook said in a statement, “This investment underscores our commitment to India, and our excitement for the dramatic transformation that Jio has spurred in the country. In less than four years, Jio has brought more than 388 million people online, fuelling the creation of innovative new enterprises and connecting people in new ways. We are committed to connecting more people in India together with Jio.”

Watchers of the digital media space say this deal allows Facebook to be the largest minority shareholder in Reliance Jio, and thus be privy to key decisions involving India’s largest telecom company.

“A 9.99 percent stake is relatively small and we can rest assured that Jio and Reliance has control over its business. But at the same time Facebook’s stake as a minority shareholder means it has a board seat at Jio. It will thus have intimate knowledge of the decisions taken by them,” says Nikhil Pahwa, a digital rights activist and founder of the digital portal MediaNama.

Decisions and possible conflicts of interest regarding data privacy are certainly questions that will be asked of the social media giant, which will now be sitting upon an even bigger volume of data. Currently the social media giant has 328 million monthly users in India with 400 million WhatsApp users. According to latest figures, Reliance Jio has 388 million subscribers and a market share of 34 percent in the telecom sector.

 

Privacy Issues

The main issue is in the way Facebook’s company WhatsApp processes data. The messaging service’s end-to-end encryption has long been criticised by the Indian government and certainly the Competition Commission of India, which will be reviewing the deal and could demand details and safeguards.

Telecom expert and analyst Ravi Prasad believes that localising Indian data is one safeguard that must be put in. “The Data Protection Bill is pending before the parliamentary committee which makes it imperative that all data of Indians should be processed only on Indian servers. This is even more important since this venture is going to enter into e-commerce in a major way.”

 

Changing The E-commerce Game

E-commerce is going to be the game changer in the deal between the two juggernauts. RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani has made no secret of the fact that he has been looking to target Amazon and Flipkart in the online business space. Now through his digital platform JioMart working in tandem with WhatsApp, it seems the dice has been rolled.

RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani makes a video statement on the Jio-Facebook deal.

 

In a video statement announcing the venture Ambani said, “In the very near future, JioMart – Jio’s digital new commerce platform, and WhatsApp – will empower nearly 3 crore small Indian kirana shops to digitally transact with every customer in their neighbourhood. This means all of you can order and get faster delivery of day-to-day items, from nearby local shops.”

While Jio certainly has a strong base by which to target Amazon and Flipkart, the move comes as a win for Facebook too. The social media giant has been trying to promote WhatsApp payments but has been hampered by RBI guidelines since 2018. Now, it can finally enter into the space occupied by Google Pay and PayTM among others. On the e-retail side, while the competition is tough with adversaries Amazon and Flipkart (acquired by Walmart) having deep pockets and a head start in the India e-commerce market – some believe that in this Reliance Jio and Facebook could come out on top.

“JioMart, together with the huge subscriber base of Facebook and WhatsApp payments, is likely to be a big winner. Being a late entrant, they can study the flaws and mistakes of the incumbents Amazon and Walmart Flipkart,” says Prasad.

 

Local Resistance

It’s not all plain sailing though.  Trader groups such as the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) are opposed to all the big names entering this space.  For a long time now, CAIT has launched a campaign against online e-commerce incumbents Amazon and Flipkart and lobbied the government against them on issues of predatory pricing and deep discounting.

In a move that is likely to do further damage to Amazon, CAIT jumped into the digital e-commerce game by coming up with an e-commerce platform for local retailers and grocery stores on Friday. The announcement interestingly came a day after Amazon announced its new programme “Local Shops on Amazon” aimed at enabling local and small shops and retailers to sell their products online.

However, Amazon’s loss may not immediately translate into Jio’s and Facebook’s gain. Protests have begun against the deal with organisations like the Swadeshi Jagran Manch claiming the Facebook-Jio deal is a more “dangerous threat” then posed by Amazon and Flipkart. How that pans out remains to be seen.

 

The China Factor

The Facebook-Reliance partnership gains all the more currency because of the “China factor”. The Indian government’s recent change in FDI rules means that severe scrutiny will come on FDI investments from neighbouring countries. Though the policy does not mention China or any other country by name the fallout will mainly be borne by Beijing.

Beijing has already strongly protested the change in India’s stance regarding its foreign investment policy. The Spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in India Counselor Ji Rong, stated that China’s cumulative investment in India exceeded 8 billion US dollars, far more than the total investments of India’s other border-sharing countries.

“The additional barriers set by Indian side for investors from specific countries violate WTO’s principle of non-discrimination and go against the general trend of liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment,” the spokesperson said calling on India to reverse its decision.

The China factor is all the more important, given the interest that Chinese e-commerce giants have huge stakes in a number of influential players such as PayTM, Swiggy, Zomato, Bigbasket, OYO etc. The recent Chinese increase in the stake by the Bank of China in HDFC has given India even cause to be worried. These online players could become collateral damage in the bid to squeeze Chinese investment.

Pahwa believes that the move will hurt tech startups the most as they need a steady infusion of capital. The main options lie in Hong Kong, Singapore and Silicon Valley. But given the Indian government’s recent scrutiny of the neighbourhood, tech companies may have to look solely at Silicon Valley which may not yield results.

The global pandemic has hurt the US market and many US investors are adopting a wait and see approach with regard to investment. The result: with major Chinese players out of the game, other investors relatively reluctant, Indian startups could become more reliant on players like Facebook that have made no secret of their ambitious India plans. This may not be a good thing in the long term.

Bangladesh Mission To The Rescue

By
StratNews Global;
-

The Bangladesh High Commission in Delhi has been hard at work trying to evacuate its citizens stranded by the Indian decision to suspend all international and regional flights, followed by the lockdown. Many Bangladeshis were here for medical treatment and thanks to the high commission’s efforts, many have returned home.

A group of 164 Bangladshi nationals are being flown out from Chennai today. Most had come to Bengaluru’s Narayana Hospital for treatment when the lockdown happened. In the weeks since the lockdown, the high commission and its missions in  Kolkata, Mumbai, Guwahati and Agartala have evacuated 1,000 Bangladeshi nationals via air and land. Many are students. Leading the charge is the new high commissioner Muhammad Imran who hit the ground running. Kudos to him.

Two To Tango

By
StratNews Global;
-

In a hush-hush operation about which neither the Indian nor Bangladeshi authorities have confirmed or commented upon, yet another man involved in the killing of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and practically his entire family 45 years ago, is learnt to be in Bangladesh custody.

Risaldar Moslehuddin is alleged to have fired at Sheikh Mujib at his Dhanmondi residence in Dhaka on August 15, 1975, killing him. It appears Moslehuddin had been living in India, for how long and where is unclear. But he was handed over in the same manner India had earlier handed over Capt. Abdul Majed, another of those involved in the conspiracy to kill Mujib. Majed was hanged days later and the same fate probably awaits Moslehuddin.

How many of the other conspirators are in India is hard to tell given that neither Delhi nor Dhaka are telling much. But clearly, the intelligence agencies on both sides are working closely.

‘Erdogan Wants Armenian Genocide To Be Buried, Forgotten’

By
Surya Gangadharan;
-
YouTube Video

New Delhi: Over a century ago, Armenian Christians in eastern Turkey were subjected to genocide and mass expulsion by the Ottoman Sultan Abdul Hamid. It is considered to be among the earliest examples of “ethnic cleansing”, with over one million Armenians killed. It is seen as the forerunner of the ethnic cleansing practiced by the Bosnian Serbs during the Bosnian civil war of 1992-95. To date, Turkey refuses to acknowledge that such a massacre happened, says Armenia’s Ambassador to India Armen Martirosyan. On the anniversary of the genocide (Apr. 24, 1915), Ambassador Martirosyan told StratNews Global’s Surya Gangadharan that modern Turkey refuses to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia, insisting that the genocide did not happen. Turkey’s current President Erdogan has also stalled protocols signed in 2009 with Armenia that would have normalised relations. Armenia’s support for its fellow Christians in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in neighbouring Azerbaijan has added to the animus with Istanbul. Ambassador Martirosyan believes it is important that Turkey acknowledge the genocide to ensure future acts of this nature do not happen and more importantly, do not go unpunished. To us here in India, it brings to mind the 1971 genocide by Pakistan in former East Pakistan (later Bangladesh), which remains unacknowledged by Islamabad nearly 50 years on. The perpetrators of those crimes got away unpunished. The Armenian Genocide, therefore, holds crucial lessons for the world.

Watch the interview for more:


‘Strange, Virus Crisis Not Raised In UNSC, Was China Responsible?’

By
StratNews Global;
-
YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: The politics surrounding the effectiveness or otherwise of UN agencies like the World Health Organisation (WHO) in the current pandemic broadly reflects superpower rivalries, says Vijay Nambiar, an Indian Foreign Service officer who later served as aide to Ban Ki Moon, former UN secretary general. Nambiar was on StratNews Global’s Talking Point programme with Nitin Gokhale and Surya Gangadharan. He acknowledges that some of the criticism directed at WHO chief Tedor Ghebreyesus is justified but believes that the West would have gone easy on him if he had been appointed to that office with their support. Chinese backing was his undoing. That the UN Security Council has not been able to discuss a matter which has ravaged the world underscores its weakness, and exposes the hypocrisy of major powers. He says reform is necessary but would not hazard a guess on whether and how it could happen. In his view, what the world today is looking for is leadership, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s actions with respect to dealing with the pandemic in India and his outreach through the G20 and SAARC, suggest a new leadership is evolving.


Combatting Covid-19: The Sri Lankan Approach

By
Nitin A. Gokhale;
-

NEW DELHI: As Europe and America struggle to deal with the raging Chinese virus pandemic, success stories are emerging from smaller countries in Asia such as Vietnam and Sri Lanka that have managed to control the spread of the disease and have come up with measures to mitigate the likely after-effects too.

While you can listen to the Vietnamese ambassador to India elaborating on his country’s efforts , it is important to detail the Sri Lanka model that has so far proved to be effective in keeping the numbers down.

The success of the Sri Lankan model is also reflected in the figures. As of 10 am on 24 April, Sri Lanka had a cumulative figure of 367 cases. Currently, there are only 253 active cases, 107 people have so far recovered and the death toll is at 7.

So how did the emerald island do it? Sources in the Government of Sri Lanka said a three-pronged approach has helped it so far: anticipation, detection and action.

Taking a whole-of-government approach, the Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, a hands-on leader who approaches every problem in a mission mode, laid down the principle of “proactive intervention to prevent any outbreak of COVID-19 within Sri Lanka”.

One instance of the pro-active approach happened on Thursday when one sailor of the Sri Lankan navy was found positive in one of the bases. Immediately, all his close contacts were examined and put in isolation. Sixty other sailors who had proceeded on leave were traced and contacted in their respective homes and put under self-quarantine in less than 12 hours, effectively containing the spread.

Officials at the forefront of the anti-Covid-19 efforts in the island nation pointed out that the government acted well before the pandemic hit the region. It established the Action Committee for COVID-19 on January 26, a day before the detection of the first diagnosed patient in Sri Lanka, a Chinese national who came as a tourist. This patient was treated at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) and was discharged completely recovered on February 19. This incident prompted the Sri Lankan government to act proactively and strategise actions for a possible breakout of COVID-19 in the country.

The President, a former army officer and Sri Lanka’s wartime defence secretary, immediately mobilised the intelligence agencies, particularly the State Intelligence Service, to undertake research on the virus and to assess its possible impact in the region and across the country. The health sector was prepared for any medical emergency and the three defence forces were given the mandate to establish and handle quarantine centres. The army constructed a number of quarantine centres to accommodate possible cases. Police were given directives to be prepared for enforcement of law during any situation. The fruits of early preparedness were clearly manifested in bringing in, quarantining and releasing 33 students from China in February.

Keeping a close watch on the rapid spread of Covid-19 across the world, Sri Lanka promptly imposed travel restrictions on arrivals from mostly affected countries starting March 10 and imposed total travel restrictions into Sri Lanka by March 20. All arrivals into the country were directed to central quarantine centres.

As the spread of the virus accelerated, a plan of action focusing broadly on four Lines of Operation (LOO) was implemented. Officials involved in the planning and implementation, say each LOO in the model (see graphics) is unique but complementary.

 

Military/Police/Intelligence

This LOO is focused on preventing the virus from getting into Sri Lanka, containing it if already present within the country and preventing its further spread through various processes. It compressed the pandemic into a manageable scale for medical and health care LOO to handle. While State Intelligence focused on identifying the origin of the virus, the army concentrated on containment and police controlled mobility to avoid spreading.

Medical and Health Care

This vertical is focused on promoting health, preventing contamination, controlling COVID-19 and ensuring right treatment of patients. Employment of Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health, engagement of Public Health Inspectors and smooth and effective functioning of hospitals is the responsibility of this vertical.

Psychological

This line of operation is focused on cognitive domain of the community by providing right information about the COVID-19 situation in the country and in the world, about measures taken by the government to prevent and control the disease, encouraging people to abide by medical and healthcare instructions, adhere to law and order and also to consolidate the national narrative/engender solidarity. This vertical is entrusted with the job of taking every citizen of Sri Lanka along, irrespective of their ethnicity, two key officials told StratNews Global.

Economy

This vertical is responsible for the economic future, whilst looking after the immediate well being of the population in terms of ensuring uninterrupted food supplies and medicines besides running essential services and administrative functions in the country. Concurrently, it looks at the mid- and long-term economic strategies against possible future global economic recession.

Sri Lanka has also adopted a strategy based on Detection (D), Isolation (I) and Tracing (T). In other words, a DIT model. Each component in the model overlaps and complements each other.

  1. Detection: Detection is combined with big-data analysis, verification of records with various agencies like Immigration and Emigration, Registration of People, Voter Registration etc. Detection is employed to identify vulnerable communities, i.e. those who have come into Sri Lanka from contaminated countries/areas, those who might have been exposed to the virus etc.
  2. Isolation: Based on the results of detection, isolation is used to segregate different communities through a number of measures including self-quarantine, central-quarantine in quarantine centres, enforcing curfews to restrict the mobility of communities thereby preventing the spread, isolation of vulnerable areas and complete lockdowns if necessary.
  3. Tracing: Tracing is an important process and is employed to identify the root cause/origin of the case. Tracing is ground intelligence and big-data analysis heavy process. Information from telecom companies are of high value. Tracing would identify the family associates (FA), close associates (CA), distance associates (DA) of a patient, his/her movement details, contacts, places visited etc. Further tracing would be employed to identify whether those persons are already contaminated and/or vulnerable to contamination. Results of tracing would propose persons/communities for self-quarantine/central-quarantine etc.

In short, the DIT model is an intelligence-driven, proactive and aggressive process which works both backward and forward. As and when a new case is detected or reported, the model works backward to identify the origin of the virus and span of the spread. It employs different sources to include ground surveillance/verifications, use of record checks, analysis of boarder control data, details from telcos, hotel reservations and many other sources. With those details, the model works forward to isolate, self-quarantine and/or central-quarantine vulnerable communities (FA, CA, DA and any other contacts).

In case, anyone from vulnerable communities (FA, CA, DA) becomes positive, the DIT model applies equally for each case. This is a strenuous and continuous process but is effective.

The entire model works on the assumption that none of these verticals can produce desired results by working in isolation. Intelligence is required for precise situational awareness for other LOOs to act. Medical and Health Care needs to coordinate with Military/Police/Intelligence LOO to detect, isolate and trace. Similarly, psychological and economic LOOs require inputs from intelligence for their responses. Thus, coordination and cooperation between different LOOs and synchronization of ground and technical intelligence is pivotal in this effort. This synchronization is the masterpiece in Sri Lankan approach in combating COVID-19, officials pointed out.

The spread of COVID-19 pandemic is continuing and different countries have employed different ways and means to combat the virus. The Sri Lankan model is a proactive and aggressive process and available data suggests that this approach has so far proved to be effective.

Don’t Communalise Fight Against Covid-19, India Tells OIC

By
Parul Chandra;
-

NEW DELHI: India has hit out at the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) warning it “not to communalise the global fight against the Covid-19 pandemic”, after it issued a statement earlier this week expressing concern over rising Islamophobia in the country.

Sources said on Thursday, “ It is deeply regrettable that the OIC continues to make factually inaccurate and misleading statements…We have demonstrated our resolve to have a coordinated and collaborative approach to fight this pandemic at the global level.”

Sources also saw the tweets put out by a fake Twitter handle being run in the name of Omani princess Mona Al Said as “a deliberate attempt to disturb social harmony in that region and in India.” The tweets from the fake handle prompted the princess to put out a clarification, and a tweet thanking her then came from India’s ambassador to Oman, Munu Mahawar.

The envoy affirmed how important India’s ties with the Gulf nation are. “India values its friendly relations with Oman and will continue working closely with the government and people of Oman to further strengthen our special relationship.”

However, while New Delhi will take the OIC statement in its stride, given the past the two share, it clearly did not expect the backlash it’s had to face in some Gulf countries after some Indian nationals based in the region put out Islamophobic tweets. An old tweet of BJP MP Tejasvi Surya ( he wasn’t an MP then) insulting Arab women too created outrage in the Arab world.

New Delhi’s sharp response to the OIC’s Independent Permanent Human Rights Commission (IPHRC) came after it issued a statement on Sunday urging India “to take urgent steps to stop the growing tide of Islamophobia in India and protect the rights of the persecuted Muslim minority as per its obligations under international HR (human rights) law.”

The IPHRC also condemned the “unrelenting vicious Islamophobic campaign in India maligning Muslims for spread of Covid-19 as well as their negative profiling in media, subjecting them to discrimination & violence with impunity.”

While New Delhi is clearly unhappy with the 57-member OIC’s remarks, it came as no surprise from an organisation that regularly upbraids India on the condition of Muslims here despite the good bilateral relations it has with most of its members. The OIC has also been steadfast in backing Pakistan on Kashmir.

India and the OIC appeared to have moved a significant step forward in their relations last year when the then external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj became the first Indian leader in five decades to address the inaugural session of the 46th OIC meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers on March 1.

It’s noteworthy though that the invite to be the guest of honour came from the host, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a country with whom India’s ties have gathered considerable momentum since the prime minister’s visit in August 2015.

How The Chinese Virus Travelled the World Over

By
StratNews Global;
-

It all began in China. And as the South China Morning Post reported, the first novel Coronavirus case was detected in Hubei province on November 17, weeks before China announced that a new virus had emerged. Authorities attempted a cover-up that included a crackdown on doctors who tried to sound the alarm that a SARS-like virus had struck. After nearly a month and a half, on December 31, China informed the World Health Organisation of an outbreak of “pneumonia of unknown cause” detected in the city of Wuhan in Hubei Province. By then, it was too late. Here’s a lowdown on how the virus travelled far and wide.

Comprehensive Timeline: COVID-19 Pandemic

[cool-timeline layout=”one-side” animation=”none” date-format=”F j Y” icons=”NO” show-posts=”200″ designs=”design-7″ skin=”default” order=”DESC” story-content=”full”]

 

Peddling Hate During Pandemic, The Pakistani Way

By
StratNews Global;
-

NEW DELHI: As the Chinese Virus rampages through the globe, most countries are channeling all their resources and time to dealing with the pandemic. Countries like India and reaching out to other nations, shipping essential medicines, equipment, medical help and expertise. People across the globe are taking to the social media to express solidarity and empathise with those who are in pain and suffering. All this would seem quite humane and normal behavior. But then there is a bunch of losers that has taken to the social media with a vengeance to spread another virus—HATE.

The hotbed of this cyber misadventure is Pakistan. And unleashing the so-called offensive to manipulate public perception is the Inter Service Public Relations (ISPR), a branch of Pakistan’s spy agency ISI. Pakistan’s economy is in tatters and the nation is heavily reliant on external aid/loan. But that seems no deterrent to investing resources into creating webs of lies, fake news and propaganda to incite doubts in the minds of unassuming social media users. Trends like “Islamophobia”, “ShameOnModi” and a multitude of related hatemongering hashtags have been propagated and made viral by ISPR affiliates like “Defenders of Pakistan” (@LoverPakArmy).

Simple trend analysis has exposed their ways of functioning: a core group infiltrates ideologically leaning handles and pushes non-related pictures annotated with inciting text to raise tempers and boost social divides. The unique part is that these groups have large memberships and seem to have regions dedicated for more broadband engagements. Their activity becomes evident when identical posts are peddled by different accounts, but to the lay user even a speck of misinformation is enough to plant negativity. The Pakistani handles exploit this to injecting more poison.

These ISPR subsidiaries even exploit the ‘verified’ handles of important personalities in their country to push their nefarious agenda. Faced with orders from ISI, these celebrities hardly have an option but to toe the line and use their gullible followers to trend such hatred and fake news. Utilisation of every technical tool is also resorted to with ‘bots’ and paid promotions clandestinely applied to manipulate trends and buy prominence. These trends are then fed to software-driven fake news portals and pop-ups that push the vitriolic narratives to make them appear as ‘burning’ news. On many occasions, agencies have exposed such entities, but being digital in form, they are created and deleted at will and are nothing more than malicious software on the internet.

The mischief has targeted Arabic royalty as well. Recently, a Pakistani handle (@pak_fauj) changed its name to that of Omani princess Mona bint Fahad Al Said. The impersonator account was used to push offensive Islamophobic posts against India, with the intention of maligning ties between India and Oman.

Omani princess Mona bint Fahad Al Said tweeted, saying an earlier offensive tweet attributed to her was put out by an account impersonating her.

After Twitter users called out the dubious content, exposing the fake account, the Princess issued a clarification denying her involvement. “I thank you for your concern to verify the offensive post published through an account impersonating me, which you are sure that I have no connection with.” India’s ambassador to Oman Munu Mahawar tweeted, thanking the princess. “India values its friendly relations with Oman and will continue working closely with the Government and people of Oman to further strengthen our special relationship,” he said.

Vietnam’s COVID-19 Success Story, Despite Scarce Resources

By
Parul Chandra;
-
YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: While many countries with a far better health infrastructure have been struggling to contain the spread of COVID-19, Vietnam has charted a success story despite having far less resources at its command. It’s not had a single death since the coronavirus first came knocking at its doors in January and had recorded only 268 COVID-19 positive cases until April 22. The southeast nation’s ambassador to India, Pham Sanh Chau spoke to StratNews Global’s Deputy Editor Parul Chandra on how Vietnam managed to contain the virus despite sharing a 1,400 km long porous border with China where COVID-19 originated in the city of Wuhan. Asked if his country hoped to gain if manufacturing units moved out of China in the wake of the pandemic, the envoy said while Vietnam wants to play a bigger role in global supply chains, it didn’t want this to happen at the cost of others. With Vietnam also having to deal with Chinese muscle-flexing in the South China Sea in the midst of the pandemic, Ambassador Chau rejected Beijing’s moves to once again claim what he said is rightfully his country’s territory. Watch this interview for more:


India To Play Major Role In Shaping Post Covid-19 World Order: Australian Envoy

By
Parul Chandra;
-

NEW DELHI: Crystal ball gazing into a post-Covid-19 world, the Australian high commissioner-designate to India Barry O’Farrell has said that while he sees the US playing a far more cautious role in terms of exercising global leadership, he sees India as a major “natural power in the region”, playing an enormous role in shaping the post-COVID world.

Elaborating, O’Farrell said, “ It’s well placed to do this as one of the very few economies currently expected to emerge from this crisis not in recession.”

He made these observations while sharing his views on the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific as well as India-Australia relations at the National Defence College (NDC) via a teleconference here on Wednesday. O’Farrell said, “I see even faster shifts in the Indo-Pacific power balance, with an associated sharpening of strategic competition. And an even more factious multilateral system.”

While the US-driven Indo-Pacific construct is largely seen as being aimed at countering China, those allying with Washington on this (India included) have largely chosen to downplay this aspect. However, O’Farrell’s speech made it clear that Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific region remains a matter of concern. Without naming China he drew attention to the fact that, “Across the Indo-Pacific we are seeing increasing strategic competition driving exploitation of some of the more fragile developing states.”

He also referenced China’s increasing attempts at strategic dominance in the region noting, “ In the race to secure economic and strategic advantage through port access and military reach, great power rivalry is testing state sovereignty of our more vulnerable regional partners.”

Noting that southeast Asia is “core to our concept of the Indo-Pacific,” O’Farrell said, “ We expanded cooperation with southeast Asia on maritime issues, including on maritime law, maritime domain awareness and strengthening civil maritime organisations … all of which was designed to strengthen a rules-based maritime order.”

China is accused of violating this rules-based maritime order in the South China Sea, where it has claimed and occupied disputed islets, raised artificial islands and fortified them.

O’Farrell referred to China’s inroads into the Indian Ocean region. “We also have great ambition for the India-Australia relationship to strengthen the security and stability of the Indian Ocean region.”

The HC-designate made it clear that Australia “looks to it (India) as a strategic partner with complementary interests.” He undescored that New Delhi and Canberra’s strategic interests converge in the Indian Ocean Region, “ We both have significant Indian Ocean coastlines, strategic island territories, highly capable military reach and valuable trade routes across the Indian Ocean,” he said describing cooperation between the two countries in this regard as a “natural fit”.

He noted, “India represents a major power without some of the baggage that others can bring”, pointing to Delhi’s “traditionally non-aligned stance and its deep cultural and religious links to the region”.

He suggested that India and Australia could build on the trilateral maritime security workshop they had held with Indonesia last year to identify ways “to be the best custodians of the Indian Ocean.”

O’Farrell said his country supported India’s leadership of the IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association) as “it helps to shape it into a genuinely norm-building entity.”

Pandemic Hurts But Historic Drop In Crude Oil Prices Will Boost India’s Economy

By
Ashwin Ahmad;
-

NEW DELHI: Crazy does not even begin to describe the state of the global oil market. Just days after the ‘oil war’ between Saudi Arabia and Russia was resolved with a deal between Opec Plus nations agreeing to production cuts, alarm bells rang again as the US shale oil market crashed with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – one of the three international benchmarks by which oil prices are determined – showed that US oil prices had crashed to $-40 a barrel – a first in its history. What this meant was that US oil producers actually paid buyers $40 a barrel, to take the surplus oil off their hands.

The result: the US shale oil market went into freefall and there were worries about the ripple effect on the global oil market and other economies, specifically the Indian economy.

Energy analyst Narendra Taneja was quick to allay concerns. “We should look upon it as an episode that happened. This does not mean that it might not happen again but as of now, we should take it as a blip. We should look at Brent which is stable and trading at $20-25 a barrel. The Indian market is still based on Brent.”

Good News For India

Moving away from the blip, we need to see what low oil prices mean for the Indian economy. In the immediate term, India will enjoy a lower current account deficit (CAD) and lower inflation because of lower oil prices. This would mean that the country’s import bill reduces and the price of medical equipment and fertilizer, both key for the country’s economy, will become cheaper. Lower import costs also impact farmers who use diesel to run farm equipment.

Move To Cleaner Fuels

Given that low oil prices are here to stay, what could be the long-term outlook for the Indian economy? Analysts advise that due to the global pandemic oil prices at $25-30 per barrel is likely to be the new normal for now. There are some key takeaways in the medium to long term: First, the fall in oil prices is likely to lead to a fall in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as both are close substitutes for one another. This is important as LNG could then become a substitute for coal. India is a heavily coal-dependent coal market as of now and the carbon monoxide released by gas is less than half of coal.

The other fallout is that the crash in oil prices could free up revenue that India needs to ramp up renewable energy sources. An economic survey presented in Parliament in July last year, stated the country would need $330 billion to raise its renewable energy capacity to 500GW or 40 percent of total energy capacity by 2030.

Flip Side

While the overall fall in oil prices is good news for India’s economy there is a flip side. India earns considerable revenue from excise duty. An India Today report quoting Madan Sabnavis, chief economist of Care Ratings, estimated that governments get around Rs 5.5 lakh crore as revenue in the form of duties and taxes on fuel every year. Of this, the Centre gets around Rs 3 lakh crore, and the states, Rs 2.5 lakh crore.

Such a figure is hit if oil prices are low. The government could in normal times make this up by hiking excise duty, but since demand has dropped due to the pandemic this is unlikely to be the case now. As a result, key government projects are likely to be hit. The ideal price for India, says analysts, should be in the region of $40 a barrel, but that is unlikely to be there for some time.

Big Hit To Exports

The other big hit will be petroleum products. India is a major exporter of petroleum products and refined petrol is one of the country’s top three exports. So reasonably high oil prices are a win-win situation for all. Currently, with oil demand down both worldwide and in India, the government is expected to fall well short of the 2.4 trillion rupee target slated for 2020-2021.

This will hurt India as a major source of exports will dry up. This will hit major oil downstream companies. Already, IOC has filed a force majeure, which is an inability to fulfil a contract, on oil purchases from Saudi Arabia and UAE. This will be a big blow.

Geopolitical Factor

There is also a geopolitical component to all this. As Taneja points out, low oil prices are not good for the GCC countries and even Iran, something India needs to remain conscious of.

“There are eight million-plus people living in the GCC countries. The low oil prices will hurt them badly if they go on like this for another three or four months and there is a danger of economic and possibly political instability. This will hurt India because the GCC along with Iran is a major market for us.”

Normalcy On The Horizon?

Despite the despondency surrounding the lack of global demand for oil, most analysts feel that India is in a better place than most countries to take advantage, once the recovery should happen. Analysts say that India’s sound fundamentals in terms of food supply chains and better management of the COVID-19 crisis than most other nations, has ensured confidence. This confidence could be seen in a recent IMF report which projected India’s growth rate at 1.9 percent while global growth was likely to fall to -3 percent in 2020.

The other point to note is that while oil is the first to be hit in a global recession it is also the first to recover. “If there is even a slight recovery oil is the first beneficiary because without oil nothing moves. The coming month will be crucial for us, but I do see India bouncing back quicker than other countries,” says Taneja.

UAE Emphasises Tolerance, Last Thing We Want Is Indians Mouthing Radical Messages

By
Parul Chandra;
-
YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: When an Indian based in the UAE put out some Islamophobic tweets recently, it evoked outrage on Twitter in the Arab world. Princess Hend Al Qassimi, a member of the UAE royal family responded with a series of tweets, among them one which reminded the Indian that anyone who was “openly racist and discriminatory in the UAE will be fined and made to leave”. The Indian ambassador to the UAE Pavan Kapor later tweeted, “ India and UAE share the value of non-discrimination on any grounds.” There was further embarrassment for India in the Arab world after a 2015 tweet insulting Arab women by BJP MP Tejasvi Surya (he was not a parliamentarian then) resurfaced. So will such Islamophobic tweets and comments impact India’s close ties with countries in the Gulf region and particularly the UAE? StratNews Global Deputy Editor Parul Chandra put this and several other questions to retired diplomat Navdeep Suri who served as India’s ambassador to the UAE until September 2019. Conceding that the tweets were in exceptionally poor taste, the former envoy said the response to these in the Arab world indicated that the voices of fringe elements based in India and the Gulf were beginning to resonate there. At the same time, he said India’s ties with countries in the Gulf region are on a firm-footing and they understand what India stands for.


Taliban Seek Release of Suspect In German Embassy Bombing That Killed Over 150 People

By
Tolo News;
-

KABUL: One of the top 15 prisoners whose release is being demanded by the Taliban, Lailuddin, has been identified by a senior government official as part of a network responsible for major attacks in Kabul, including the German embassy bombing, the American University of Afghanistan (AUAF) attack, an attack on former MP Mir Wali and a bombing of the funeral ceremony. Lailuddin, son of Gulbuddin, is originally from Musahi district of Kabul province and was arrested in Kabul city, according to the source. Documents seen by TOLO News show that Lailuddin was trained in Quetta, Pakistan for two-and-a-half months before deploying to Logar and then Kabul.

In May 2017, a truck bomber near the German embassy in Kabul killed over 150 people and injured over 400, mostly civilians. In an earlier attack, claimed by the Taliban in August 2016, the American University in Kabul was stormed after a car bomb was exploded. At least 17 died.

Taliban release group they claim are government prisoners. April 12, 2020

The release of the Taliban prisoners is part of the US-Taliban deal signed in Doha late on February 29. The Afghan government has so far agreed to release 1,500 Taliban prisoners, instead of the 5,000 prisoners mentioned in the agreement. The prisoner release has posed a major obstacle to the already delayed peace process. National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib on Tuesday said five of the 15 prisoners that the Taliban insisted should be freed were involved in major “terrorist attacks,” and, based on the country’s laws, Mohib said, the government does not have the authority to release them. The five prisoners were identified after investigations by the Attorney General’s Office and the National Directorate of Security, Mohib added.

Afghan government releases who they say are Taliban prisoners. April 8. 2020 (Photo: National Security Council)

A former Taliban commander, Sayed Akbar Agha, said the Taliban believes that the government is “making excuses” by not agreeing to release the five prisoners. “The Taliban does not believe that the problem is only the release of the five individuals; they say that the government is making excuses,” he added. Sources close to the Taliban say that the increase in violence around the country is related to the delays in the prisoner release. “The delay in the prisoner release has intensified the conflicts and has delayed the intra-Afghan negotiations,” said Khalil Safi, former head of Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, an international crisis group.

The government has so far released 361 Taliban prisoners, but the Taliban has said they are “unidentified.” The Taliban has also released 60 prisoners, but the government says only 19 of them are members of the security forces, and the rest are civilians.

 

(By arrangement with Tolo News)

1...561562563...577Page 562 of 577
Facebook Linkedin Twitter Youtube
© StratNews Global