NEW DELHI: The coronavirus pandemic could not have come at a worse time for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Just when he appeared all set to extend his two-decade long iron-grip over the nation through a constitutional referendum, the coronavirus has forced him to postpone it.

Analysts say it is a late admission by the Kremlin that the virus has taken a serious turn in the country. The view is that Putin has been underplaying the spread of the coronavirus even as the numbers testing positive showed rapid increases last month. Some early steps to contain the virus were taken, notably the closure of the 4,000-km long land border with China in late January. But there’s a perception that more could have been done.

There have also been whispers about the Russian state covering-up reports about people falling ill with pneumonia like symptoms as early as January. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin had cast doubts on the number of those tested positive, hinting that the authorities may have been covering up the facts on the ground. Clearly, they were under-testing and therefore under-estimating the spread of the infection until it exploded in their face.

On Tuesday, Russia recorded its sharpest spike in the number of coronavirus positive cases with 1,154 persons found infected. That pushed up the total number of positive cases to 7,497, with 58 deaths so far. Ironically, Moscow where Putin has a larger than life presence is the epicentre of the pandemic. Add to that, Putin himself has had to self-isolate after shaking hands with a doctor who tested positive for the coronavirus. It’s a far cry from the images of the president riding a horse bare-chested or showing off his judo skills (he’s a black belt).

For the record, it’s not clear if Putin has tested positive. His office said he gets tested as and when the doctor says it is necessary. State television has even shown him working in the Kremlin and meeting key officials, which raised quite a few eyebrows as it conflicts with reports about his self-isolation. Is the president violating quarantine norms?

That aside, there are signs Putin is taking charge of the situation. He held a video conference with epidemiologists and virologists on Tuesday where he warned that “we have not seen the peak of the epidemic yet.” Moscow’s 12 million residents are under quarantine that will continue until May 1. Those found violating the quarantine will have to pay stiff fines. Other regions too are under stay-at-home orders. It’s not clear why he has not declared an emergency when the same was done during floods and wildfires. The president has preferred to phrase it differently, declaring it as “paid holiday”, so people can enjoy till the end of April.

Will the pandemic allow Russia to go ahead with its planned 75th-anniversary celebrations of Victory Day on May 9 at the Red Square? With world leaders invited including Narendra Modi, one will have to wait and see if the coronavirus plays spoilsport.

PUNE: The Cabinet Secretary has declared that the lockdown will not be extended after 21 days. The threat of the virus cannot be eliminated unless we find a vaccine/treatment or there is some beneficial act of God. Thus, we will continue to live under uncertainty for at least the next six months to fully grasp all the dimensions of the crisis. The following note is an attempt to develop an approach using insights from behavioural sciences.

Just as there were surprises while locking down there will be surprises while unlocking. It will be useful to unlock in a calibrated gradual manner. Some states could lift the lockdown a few days earlier. These experiences will be useful for other states.

Paradigm Shift From Allowing Essential Services To Managing Non-Essential Services

• Limitation of Defining “Essential”: The current lockdown has defined a few essential services while closing down everything else. It is necessary to understand the unintended consequences of this approach. For example, Wi-Fi connection in my house is down from March 20. I failed to mobilise my service provider. I bought another connection. The technicians who were employed by the installation contractor have run away. This example will illustrate that every essential activity is preceded by a complex value chain. All chains, including value chains, are as strong as the weakest link. The worst possibility is that even the essential services will crash due to the problems in the non-essential aspects of their value chain.
• Shift to a negative list: Instead, it may be useful to create a “negative list” of non-essential activities and lock them and their value chains down. Non-essential activities can be defined as those where people have to come together like ceremonies, festivals, protests, sports, entertainment, etc. To start with, non-essential activities could be banned for some more time till guidelines for their regulations are evolved by involvement of concerned stakeholders.
• Gradual opening up of the non-essential in a controlled way: As an example, in places like shopping centres or malls, token systems should be evolved where the customer can get a token, online or offline, for identified time to visit identified shops. This would mean some more people as security guards in the mall. Even, theatres could be allowed to make people sit on alternate seats.
• Holding property owners accountable for violation of negative list: Commercial activities requiring physical proximity like dine-in restaurants, bars, theme parks can continue to remain under lockdown for another three months. The owners of these premises, not just tenants should be made liable for violation.

Enlisting Active Involvement Of Community

• Augmenting police governance with community governance: Police force alone will be grossly inadequate in terms of sheer numbers to ensure adherence to these norms. Conceptually, in the current lockdown regime, the underlying assumption is that the state is the parent and citizens are children. Instead, it will be necessary to involve the citizens in different ways. For example, in cooperative housing societies the office bearers could be authorised to implement a model behaviour code laid down by the government.
• Tracking of offenders: Many countries are using apps to locate quarantined and self-quarantined people. It will be possible to make their movements transparent through the use of technology.
• Power of anonymous complaining: Currently the ban on public programmes after 10 pm works fairly well due to someone complaining anonymously through mobiles/apps. Members of the public can be incentivised to complain to police for violation of the negative list norms.
• Additional manpower for controlling inevitable crowds in public transport: Public transport needs to be restarted, both bus and trains. Some of the private operators may charge more and ensure that people sit away from one another. Some people may choose safe but costly transport. Passengers could be encouraged to use appropriate PPE-like masks. Bus conductors could be authorised to not let a passenger inside the bus if the scheduled capacity is full or passengers are not wearing masks. Similarly, all trains could have a conductor for every compartment and can follow similar regime. It is assumed that people who have left the cities may not return so soon, hence public transport could attract lesser and manageable crowds for three months.
• Governance in the factories and commercial establishments: Many companies are practising multi-machine operation for workers. Thus, physical density in many shop floors is not a problem. Trade unions can also protect the interests of the worker as they can be authorised to complain. Necessary PPEs could be added to safety requirements. Factory inspectors also will need to ensure well-being of contract labour in terms of personal safety and social distancing. Some kind of discipline will be necessary for small and medium sector. It is possible to create health wardens on the lines of traffic wardens who can be assigned different areas for surveillance and reporting.
• Innovative Punishment: Every society has its own share of fools and mischievous people who are prone to wrong behaviour. We need to create innovative punishments for them. For example, trucks were banned from moving on Tilak Road in Pune. Still some drivers were plying. Fine was not working. Residents took to the street, started halting the trucks and forced the drivers to go back in reverse gear. That punishment worked. Publicly naming and shaming people may work well in some segments of the society.
• Continuing public communication: The whole assumption is that the lockdown has created enough fear to practise Corona etiquettes. Post-lockdown, the communication needs to change to involve the community to share its legitimate role. The new governance arrangements can also be communicated.

Customised Solutions For Different Segments

Different segments of the society have different needs, different law-abiding propensity and different compulsions. It will be necessary to find nuanced, customised solutions by following participatory and inclusive processes of governance. For example, the urban poor need to feel that the potential risk of catching Corona is more painful than the grind of everyday living. In the short term, this pain can be reduced by subsidised/free food/ration. Efforts will be required to decongest the living spaces by providing temporary accommodation in public spaces. The government can initiate a NREGA equivalent scheme for creation of public health infrastructure and services in cities for the next six months.

Prompt Legal Action For Corona Violations

Appropriate laws can be passed to deal with offences arising out of Corona violations. The law could have fines or closure of establishments. Corona violation should not be treated as criminal violations. The current judicial system cannot handle additional complaints arising out of Corona violations. It will be necessary to designate quasi-judicial authorities. Currently, there are special executive magistrates who can be trained in deciding upon Corona violation related acts and punishments as quasi-judicial authorities.

Managing The Consequences On Individuals

• Temporary career shifts: For the next six months, some people like those working in hospitality industry/restaurants/brothels etc. will lose their livelihoods in a big way. On the other hand, the state will need people to create awareness, create and operate isolation facilities, enhance medical effectiveness by providing services to medical staff, create and operate helplines, help the elderly etc. For such jobs, the government can facilitate retraining of these groups. For example, the new requirements need service orientation and people like hospitality workers have it. As per HR principles, people need to be recruited based on attitude and aptitude, knowledge and skills can be imparted.
• Centres for grieving and counselling: There is a need to create centres for people to express their grievances, mourn their losses and receive counselling and suggestions. These could be run by NGOs and expert agencies in public-private partnership mode. They could also be authorised to help in de-bottlenecking the delivery of various relief services offered to various sections of the society including elderly, handicapped, patients etc.

(The author is an independent consultant in organisation design, strategic HR and institutional development with 37 years of experience. He works with the corporate sector, NGOs, donor agencies and the government. Views expressed in this article are personal.)

NEW DELHI: Global pandemics are truly democratic in nature. Witness British Prime Minister Boris Johnson being moved to the intensive care unit at St Thomas’s Hospital on Monday afternoon, diagnosed with the coronavirus. Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Dominic Raab is in charge until the PM returns.

Latest reports suggest that the condition of the British PM is “stable” and he is said to be in “good spirits”, but what is shocking is the speed at which he was taken ill. On March 27, Johnson had tweeted a video of himself where he confirmed that he had developed “mild symptoms” of the virus and had been given “medical advice” to work from home.  He was admitted to the hospital on Sunday with what were described as “persistent symptoms” but very quickly his condition worsened and he was taken to the ICU on Monday. Downing Street says he has been taken off the ventilator, though he still being given oxygen, and is on the road to recovery.

Global leaders were quick to express their support and concern for Johnson. In a news conference President Donald Trump stated that all “Americans were praying for his recovery.”

“He’s been really something very special – strong, resolute, doesn’t quit, doesn’t give up,” said Trump adding that he had asked two pharmaceutical firms developing potential COVID-19 therapies, to get in touch with the British government and offer their services.

French President Emmanuel Macron had tweeted his “support” to the British prime and wished him a “speedy recovery.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel sent her best wishes while Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte tweeted, “You have the whole Italian government’s support and my personal one.” In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted, “Hang in there, Prime Minister @BorisJohnson! Hope to see you out of hospital and in perfect health very soon.”

Even before the shock news of Johnson’s health, Britons are finally waking up to the seriousness of the Wuhan coronvirus with health experts warning that the worst effects of the pandemic are likely to be seen over the next two weeks. Queen Elizabeth, whose health had also caused media speculation given that she had recently met Johnson and Prince Charles, who also has coronavirus symptoms and is now in self-isolation, made a historic televised address to the nation on Sunday.

Aside from her annual Christmas addresses, this is only the fifth time that the 93-year-old sovereign has addressed the nation in her 68-year-long reign. The other instances have included the death of the Queen Mother, the death of Princess Diana, the first Gulf War in 1991 and the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee Message in 2012.

“We should take comfort that while we may have more still to endure, better days will return: we will be with our friends again; we will be with our families again; we will meet again,” she said.

Royal analysts and mediapersons saw the last sentence as particularly significant as ‘We will meet again’ was a popular song in the war years of the 1940s and it suggested that the Queen was calling for the same unity of spirit and courage from her people.

They will need lots of that spirit. According to figures released by the health ministry the death toll rose by 439 over the weekend bringing the total tally to 5,373.

The Department of Health also added that 208,837 people have so far been tested, of which 51,608 have been confirmed as positive for the virus. So far, the majority of cases and deaths have been in England. Wales showed an extra 27 deaths taking the overall number to 193, and two further deaths in Scotland where the total now stands at 222.

The death toll has shown up the failure of the British government to truly grasp the serious nature of the pandemic. Unlike Europe which shut down schools, bars, restaurants theatres and clubs while imposing strict fines on those who ventured outside, Britain adopted a controversial and now much derided “herd immunity” theory to tackle the crisis.

Thus, life continued as normal with all institutions staying open and it was only when a study carried out by immunologists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine was released in mid-March, was there an about-turn by the government.  The study suggested that if the numbers of people hospitalised in Italy would be repeated here, 30 per cent of hospitalised patients would require intensive care treatment, a number the NHS could not cope with.

Britain did wake up to the crisis but like the US — the new epicentre for the coronavirus — the UK continued in its lax approach initially, issuing advisories to its citizens, stating that only the elderly were at risk and needed to stay home. The government did issue a lockdown on March 23, asking people only to go out for food and medicines but it was too late by then.

The other problem was that people saw the lockdown as curbs on their freedom, with a large number of them visiting parks and other social areas and sunbathing during this period, even on Saturday. The death toll has since risen alarmingly over the weekend, and anger has come quick and fast against the prime minister and his government with the hashtag #ToryGenocide trending for a while on the internet.

Though the prime minister seems to be on the road to recovery, the nation remains in panic mode. A lot will fall on the shoulders of Dominic Raab, who has to make some big decisions with or without Boris.  There are reports that he and the government will extend the three-week lockdown, which is scheduled to end next week, but there are big concerns about its economic fallout with the hospitality industry bearing the brunt of it.

Around a million of the estimated 3.2 million workers in pubs, bars, restaurants and hotels are likely to lose their jobs and that figure could very well increase if the lockdown persists.  Other sectors especially the manufacturing sector, already hit by Brexit, could follow suit. Like Johnson, the British economy is in the ICU and there seems no immediate cure in sight.

KABUL:  The Ministry of Public Health has said a device built by the Herat robotics team to serve as a ventilator does not meet standards and could cause damage to Coronavirus patients if used.

“None of them (the robotics team members) has studied biomedical engineering and it has not been made under the supervision of specialists. As a doctor, I cannot use such a device for my patients,” said Wahidullah Mayar, a spokesman for the ministry.

“In order to start using it for patients, it needs to be tested by relevant specialists and approved by the World Health Organization… Otherwise, this device may cause irreversible damage to patients,” said Hamid Rahim, head of the emergency ward at Herat’s regional hospital.

However, members of the robotics team defended their device.

“We consulted with doctors. They suggested that it should be made automatic,” said Samia Farooqi, a team member.

“The components used in this device can last longer—it can operate non-stop and can save power for 10 hours,” said Florans Poya, another member of the robotics team.

Ventilators are lifesaving devices for Coronavirus patients in a critical condition and some countries are faced with acute shortage of these devices.

According to the ministry, Afghanistan’s hospitals have at least 300 ventilators—19 are in Herat, the province with the highest number of Coronavirus positive cases. The ministry says it will buy 50 more ventilators. The price of ventilators in the world market has surged, with each unit costing between $30,000 and $40,000.

Efforts by other teams are also under way to build standard ventilators, according to Abdul Hakim Tamanna, head of the Public Health Directorate of Herat. “I see this in a positive light. It will be good if its use is approved by specialists,” he said.

According to local officials, five other teams have started sharing their own homemade lifesaving breathing devices and will start building them after they get approval by health officials.

(By arrangement with Tolo News)

NEW DELHI: As India fights the Chinese virus, it’s getting crucial support from the country’s premier R&D agency— Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) in quickly developing some critical medical solutions. From Personal Protection Equipment (PPE) to multi-patient ventilators, DRDO has taken on the task of rolling out mass supply of critical medical items amid the clamour of inadequate supplies from medics.

The DRDO took a call in the first week of March 2020 to enhance efforts to create counter-measures to stop the spread of the viral disease in India. It started focusing on creating mass supply solutions for critical medical requirements using years of experience and available technology to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. As of result, the DRDO has quickly developed some frontline low-cost, high volume equipment desperately needed in the ‘War against Corona’.

Submarine Technology To Develop Bodysuits (PPE)

In a major milestone, the DRDO has developed a Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), popularly known as bodysuit, for frontline health workers and doctors. The suit is designed to prevent infection being transmitted to these personnel. The breakthrough was made at DRDO’s Gwalior laboratory for defence against CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear) agents.

Earlier, DRDO had developed this bodysuit for medical and paramedical staff to manage and evacuate the causalities in the event of radiological emergencies, which right now is converted as a full-body suit to stop contamination. The suit is washable and has passed the ASTM International standards. The suit is widely tested by DRDO and other agencies and has been found adequate for the task. Scientists have used an adhesive which has its application in submarines to produce the bodysuit. The adhesive is a critical component in the suit as it seals off external air. Now, the industry is gearing up for mass production of the suits. At present, the production capacity of 7000 suits per day exists and efforts are on to ramp it up to 15000 suits. Each suit costs Rs 7,000.

Multi-Patient Ventilators

Ventilators are in high demand to combat the pandemic and are in short supply. India currently has only 30,000-40,000 ventilators. To mitigate the overwhelming demand for critical care equipment, the DRDO is working overtime to develop ‘Multi-patient ventilators’—each one can support four to five patients—are expected to be rolled out in a week.

The Society for Biomedical Technology (SBMT) programme of DRDO has been modified to cater to the current situation. It has been created by using existing technologies like breath regulators, pressure/flow sensors, etc. Around 5,000 ventilators will be produced in the first month and 10,000 subsequently. The DRDO has identified local alternatives to the supply of critical components. According to a statement issued by the government, Secretary, Pharmaceuticals has identified nine companies for design transfer. Each ventilator unit will cost around Rs 4 lakh. The market cost of a single ventilator is around Rs 3-4 lakh which supports only one patient.

Portable Fumigation Unit: Personnel Sanitisation Enclosure (PSE)

The DRDO’s Vehicle Research Development Establishment (VRDE), Ahmednagar has developed a portable full-body disinfection chamber called Personal Sanitation Enclosure (PSE) to be used in hospitals, offices, malls and other establishments.

According to DRDO, PSE is a walk-through enclosure, equipped with sanitiser and soap dispenser. It is designed to disinfect one person at a time. The decontamination starts using a foot pedal at the entry. On entering the chamber, an electrically operated pump creates a disinfectant mist of hypo sodium chloride. The mist spray is calibrated to operate for 25 seconds and stops automatically thereafter, indicating completion of the operation. Approximately 650 personnel can pass through the chamber for disinfection before a refill is required. The system has a see-through glass panel as sidewalls for monitoring and is fitted with lights for use at night.

Full Face Mask (FFM)

Similarly, the Research Centre Imarat (RCI), Hyderabad and Terminal Ballistics Research Laboratory (TBRL), Chandigarh have developed a face protection mask for health care professionals handling COVID-19 patients. It is lightweight so can be comfortably worn for long durations.

Portable Backpack Area Sanitisation Equipment

In the continuing quest for developing indigenous solutions to combat the Coronavirus, DRDO has developed technologies for sanitising areas of different sizes. The Centre for Fire Explosive & Environment Safety (CFEES), Delhi developed portable sanitisation equipment for spraying decontamination solution consisting of one per cent Hypochlorite (HYPO) solution.

These are spin-offs from technologies developed for fire suppression applications. The application areas can include hospital reception, doctors’ chambers, office spaces dealing with the general public, corridors, pathways, metro and railway stations, bus stations, etc. The equipment is being provided to Delhi Police for immediate use. These can be made available to other agencies with the help of industry partners.

Hand Sanitizers

The DRDO has also developed in-house sanitizers for government establishments to ensure smooth working of offices without the fear of catching an infection. It had produced the item in sizeable quantities and distributed to major offices and establishments in the national capital by the third week of March. Approximately, 4,000 litres of hand sanitizers have been provided to Indian Armed forces, Armed Forces Medical Corps, Defence Security Corps, 1,500 litres to Ministry of Defence, 300 litres to Parliament and 500 litres to various security establishments and high offices.

N99 Masks

The DRDO has also designed a five-layer N99 mask using nanotechnology mesh for a cost of Rs 70. Presently, the production capacity is 10,000 N99 masks per day. Material for these is being sourced from Ahmedabad Textile Industry Research Association, which already has large government orders for N95 masks.

DRDO Chairman Dr Satheesh Reddy said the organisation had reinvented itself by developing and sharing technologies free of cost with the industry for mass production of these critical medical equipment required in the country to combat the Coronavirus outbreak.

NEW DELHI: Pakistan has been reeling under severe economic challenges for the past twelve months, barely avoiding a sovereign default with handouts from Saudi Arabia, UAE, China and the IMF. Keeping in mind that Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world, an economic collapse will have severe human implications but in terms of its impact on the global economy, maybe no more than a blip since Pakistan is an insignificant part of global supply chains.

Pakistan has now got hit by something worse, the novel Coronavirus. It sneaked in through the Chinese-funded China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), through pilgrims coming back from Iran and resident Pakistanis returning from foreign lands. The situation has become a calamity due to the inability of the military-backed administration to be able to respond to a non-military crisis situation. It has accentuated with the ulemas, who hold considerable sway in the government, insisting on continuing with communal prayers.

The upshot is that the already fragile economy is coming apart rapidly. Pakistan’s government debt to GDP ratio was expected to cross 74 per cent by 2020. With already 1.2 trillion Pakistani rupees (USD ~7 billion) of aid announced and with significant additional impact expected on the economy, the debt to GDP ratio will inch closer to the 80 per cent mark. This per se would not have been a worrisome factor as there are many other countries with much higher government debt to GDP ratio, but for the fact that Pakistan’s economy does not seem to have the wherewithal to repay such enormous debt.

Putting this in perspective, to tide over its economic woes, Pakistan received $14 billion in aid from Saudi and the UAE last year, almost half of that amount is being deployed as aid for propping up the economy. Unfortunately, given the high levels of corruption in Pakistan and a weak delivery system, very little of that money will reach the common man. This implies that the multiplier effect of that money will be negligible as the siphoned-out money will probably end up as unused savings, possibly in banks outside Pakistan.

Pakistan has also locked itself into high energy prices that is part of the deal it has with the Saudis and the UAE. So, Pakistan got its energy imports with deferred payments but at prices that were high. It will not be able to take advantage of the rock bottom energy prices that are prevailing in the post-Coronavirus market.

The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics has estimated the worst-case scenario will be a negative growth impact (of -4.64 per cent) with reduction of 20 per cent in imports and exports. Given that there will be a significant loss in remittances, which make up considerable part of Pakistan’s forex earnings, and that entire industries such as travel and tourism, manufacturing etc are reported to have been badly hit, it is likely that the actual impact on Pakistan will be far worse. In addition, its five major trading partners (accounting for more than 50 per cent of total trade), China, U.S., UK, Japan and Germany, have all been badly hit by the pandemic.

Worldwide, governments are pumping in money to shore up their economies ravaged by the virus. The money averages around 10 per cent of the economy. In Pakistan’s case, 10 per cent of the economy would imply over $30 billion to be pumped in. But this country’s total foreign exchange reserves in February 2020 was $14.5 billion, enough to pay for a little over three months of imports. From where can Pakistan get the money to resuscitate its economy?

Could China, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the IMF pitch in again? It doesn’t appear likely that these countries or institutions will be in a position to extend help. Saudi Arabia, for instance, is seeing the lowest oil prices in many years. China, considered to be Pakistan’s iron brother, has till date gifted a million N95 masks, some medical equipment and a grant of $4 million. Overall, China has never had a great track record of providing free aid to Pakistan. It has pumped in loans for the CPEC that has actually pushed Pakistan into a debt trap, contributing to its precarious economic situation.

The human toll in Pakistan will be even worse given that it has a large informal economy and this segment will be hit the worst. Also this segment will not get the visibility and the support that they would require, because of its weak linkage with the government machinery. Most job losses will happen in this segment, leading to collapse of demand for basic necessities. It is considered unlikely that the government will be able to provide sufficient support for the large number of families that desperately need such support. The unfolding human tragedy could lead to discontent and unrest that may well tear it apart.

Under the circumstances, it would be prudent for South Asia and the rest of the world, to prepare for a post-Covid Pakistan, one with an exhausted economy and deep civilian strife, one with the potential to export a large migratory population that will be in search of a new life.

(The writer is a noted author and expert in technology driven government transformation and President, Centre for Digital Economy Policy Research. Views expressed in this article are personal.)

NEW DELHI: Could governments use the coronavirus to muzzle democracy? This is not a trick question.  Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban has through the infamous ‘coronavirus bill’, armed himself with almost unlimited powers and extended the ‘state of emergency’ allowing him to rule by decree. People can be jailed for up to five years for spreading rumours about the government’s response to the coronavirus. Clearly, if more governments follow the Orban blueprint, autocracy via the COVID-19 route might well become the new normal.

Orban’s sweeping new powers are courtesy the legislative majority he enjoys in the Hungarian Parliament.  There was little or no opposition to his move, add to that the failure of the European Union to come down hard on Hungary.

Aside from a statement of concern by the European commission president Ursula von der Leyen and another banal statement by 13 EU member states urging that that “EU principles and values” be upheld, the bloc seems unable or unwilling to censure Orban. And so, it remains to the western media to label this once-upon-a-time dissenter — he started out as one when he began his political career in the 1990s — as a liberal-turned-fascist.

However, former ambassador PS Raghavan, an expert on eastern Europe and Russia, believes that such labels are misleading. “Orban was never a liberal dissenter nor is he a fascist. He is simply a pragmatic politician. He celebrated democracy at the start of his career because it was then fashionable to do so and is now doing the reverse because he feels it needs to be done to remain in power.”

“He is not alone in this. Other east European countries such as Poland too have authoritarian systems and look to control the media and judiciary. And no matter what the West thinks, these governments are wildly popular thanks to strong welfare systems and other state measures. Thanks to this such leaders usually retain popularity with strong majorities within their countries.”

Apart from popular authoritarian figures, there are other reasons why East Europe has been wary of democracy. As experts point out, East Europe’s transition to democracy has been relatively new. It was only in the 1990s, when a group of new leaders such as Lech Walesa of Poland, Viktor Orban himself from Hungary and some other leaders, introduced democracy to their nations. So, the idea of western liberal democracy (which many of us take for granted), is new to east Europe and it will take time before it is interwoven into the country’s social fabric. These leaders were also able to capitalise on fears about the collapse of the Soviet Union, fears which were not unfounded as it turned out.

Today, Orban stands tall with a two-thirds majority in Parliament, allowing him to do pretty much as he pleases. This can be seen in his foreign relations. Despite joining the EU in 2004, he is good friends with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, both of whom appreciate his standing up to Europe. The result is the EU’s continued friction with Hungary.

Bharti Sarkar, professor at the Centre for European Studies in JNU, believes that such friction will continue. “The jostling for power within the EU will continue. Hungary is already getting funds from the EU (it joined in 2004) and NATO, so he sees the value of Europe but only up to a point. Orban wants to safeguard his sovereignty so he will not allow for stronger EU unity.”

“Also, post the 2008 global recession, he has been increasingly looking eastwards. Thus, the outreach to Russia remains strong. He is also is taking advantage of the 16+1 summit (Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) and China) in a bid to reach out to Beijing.”

The increasingly authoritarian path that Orban and his other eastern European contemporaries are taking, shows the different direction in which Europe and the EU is being pulled. But since Brexit, EU member states are showing an increasing preference for charing their own foreign policies, France for example.  The EU’s failure to mount a united response to the coronavirus, has all but ensured that Orban’s “corona coup” will pass unchallenged and further questions will be asked about the bloc’s future. Or whether it even has one?

As the Chinese coronavirus continues its unrelenting march across the globe, StratNews Global cast its eyes around the region to see how other nations are coping. Our focus is on East Asia, and we examine the steps they have put in place to deal with a crisis of this magnitude, whether they are working and whether there are any lessons in store for India. In the second part of our series we now look at Indonesia and Malaysia.    

Indonesia: Poor Healthcare Facilities, Lack Of Transparency

On March 6, Indonesia will open a 360-bed hospital on the uninhabited island of Galang off Sumatra.  The hospital complete with isolation facilities and helipads will lead the battle against the coronavirus which has already killed 157 people, the highest tally in Southeast Asia.

Indonesia has 1,790 cases of coronavirus infection and a creaky medical infrastructure with only 12 hospital beds per 10,000 people.  Healthcare workers lack protective equipment with reports of some wearing raincoats.  Not surprisingly, 12 doctors are reported to have died so far.

President Joko Widodo has declared a national health emergency although this does not include a lockdown.  The view is that self-distancing and self-isolation or quarantine are of no value when people lack social security.  Media reports in Indonesia say the authorities have taken their cue from the mass movement of migrant labourers in India, and how this may have exacerbated the situation. The idea, therefore, is to strike a balance between preventive health and economic measures.

Health professionals say Indonesia has been slow to react to the coronavirus even though it has close ties to China.  More than 200 Indonesians evacuated from Wuhan were never tested for coronavirus, apparently because they showed no symptoms.  After two weeks of quarantine, they were released.  The health ministry is also accused of functioning in a non-transparent manner and senior leaders have been publicly quoted as telling the public, that the best answer to the coronavirus was to pray.

Malaysia: Glimmers Of Hope In Fight Against Pandemic

Two weeks after implementing the Movement Control Order or lockdown, Malaysia appears to be turning the corner in its battle against the coronavirus. Dr. Noor Hisham Abdullah, director-general in the health ministry, said the total tally of those infected was 2,908, well below the figure of 4000+ projected by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER).

Currently, new cases of infection are rising at the rate of 7.5% per day, again well short of the 12.5% estimate of the MIER.  But with 102 people in intensive care units in hospitals and 66 on ventilators, the authorities acknowledge the fight is far from over.  Confirmed deaths now number 45, with the two most recent being an 80-year-old woman and a 62-year-old man, both with a history of diabetes and high blood pressure.

Authorities said movement restrictions will continue for another two weeks ending April 14, and people have been advised to restrict going out of the home except to buy essential supplies.  Movement, incidentally, is limited to within a 10-km radius of their home, and anyone not able to provide a convincing explanation for travelling outside that area is liable for prosecution.