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Blacklisting Unlikely, Pak Expected To Remain On FATF ‘Grey List’

By
StratNews Global;
-

NEW DELHI: As was expected in the run up to the plenary meeting of the global terror financing watchdog FATF (Financial Action Task Force), there are already indications that Pakistan will escape the noose—it will not be pushed into the ‘blacklist’.

A FATF sub-group that looked into the measures India’s neighbour has taken during the last four months (in terms of cracking down on terror funding and money laundering) has recommended that Pakistan remain on the ‘grey list’.

India will be disappointed but, if it’s any consolation, Pakistan’s continuance on the ‘grey list’ is seen as a way of keeping up the pressure on Islamabad to act against terrorists and terror outfits. However, the more substantive decision is expected when FATF meets again in October this year to assess Pakistan’s progress on the 27 listed parameters.

Helping Pakistan stay off the blacklist have been its close allies China, Malaysia and Turkey. Pak Prime Minister Imran Khan was recently in Malaysia while Turkish President Erdogan visited Pakistan last week.

Given the precarious condition of its economy, blacklisting by FATF would only push Pakistan into deeper financial mess, making it difficult to seek concessional loans and other funding. As an editorial in the Pak daily The Dawn observed: “In the worst-case scenario, if Pakistan was found to have failed in undertaking all the steps demanded by FATF, it would be put on the blacklist. This would translate into extremely grave consequences in every sense of the word.

Days ahead of the FATF plenary, a Pak anti-terrorism court had sentenced Lashkar terrorist and 26/11 mastermind Hafiz Saeed to two prison terms of five-and-half years that are to run concurrently. India, however, fears Saeed will be a free man in a few weeks or months once the dark clouds of FATF oversight are no longer looming large.

Two Afghan Governments ‘Announced’ On The Cusp Of U.S.-Taliban Deal

By
Amitabh P. Revi;
-

NEW DELHI: When it rains it pours. The drying up of clarity over electoral uncertainty for almost five months and suspenseful skepticism about stop-start talks with the Taliban for over 14 months has turned into a deluge of claims and counter-claims in Afghanistan. The official final results of the Presidential election give Ashraf Ghani a second term. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) handed him a narrow 0.64 per cent of the votes above the 50 per cent plus one vote needed to avoid a second round run-off after the September 28, 2019 polls. He is adjudged to have 923,592 of the valid turnout of just over 1.8 million (1,823,948)—only about 18 per cent of the registered voters.

IEC Chairperson Hawa Alam Nuristani (centre) announcing final presidential results on Tuesday. (Photo: @alamnuristani)

The National Unity Government (NUG) Chief Executive Dr Abdullah Abdullah has 39.52 per cent (720,841) while Gulbuddin Hekmatyar is a distant third with 3.85 per cent of the vote. The results show only minor changes from the IEC’s December 22, 2019 preliminary announcement. After protests by Abdullah and others about 300,000 disputed votes, the IEC decided to add 262 to Ghani’s total, 742 to Abdullah’s and invalidate 453. IEC chairperson Hawa Alam Nuristani called the day “historic” saying 31.5 per cent of the voters were women.

Abdullah Abdullah (centre) and team speaking after final results. (Photo: RTA)

While the IEC may have declared the winner, Dr Abdullah speaking to supporters at a gathering in Kabul declared the results illegal and invalid, describing the IEC decision a coup. He claimed his team has won because of the ‘clean’ votes that have not been counted. Abdullah went on to pledge an alternate, inclusive government from across the country. The Chief Executive has support from other key ethnic leaders but there could be another twist like in 2009 when the U.S. pressured him to opt out of a run-off with Hamid Karzai or 2014 when U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry brokered the NUG.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani speaking after final results were announced. (Photo: RTA)

President Ghani also spoke to his supporters appearing with First Lady Rula Ghani, first Vice-Presidential running mate and former spy chief Amrullah Saleh and second Vice-Presidential running mate Sarwar Danish. He dedicated the victory to the people: “We should have patience in both small and big matters,” and problems will be solved by “self-acceptance,” not by guns. Ghani said the government will move the peace process forward but the ultimate decision will be made by the people.

Still from Taliban training propaganda video released in January, 2020.

There has been much hope for that process but the Taliban Spokesperson raised doubts about a deal post a reduction of violence (RiV) for seven days that was expected to be signed post that week on February 29 in Doha. The statement says “Just as announcing Ashraf Ghani as President under the cover of fake elections is unlawful and has no legal basis, it is also in conflict with the contents of the ongoing peace process while keeping in mind the current sensitive circumstances.” 

President Ghani met U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Defence Secretary Esper and Special representative Zalmay Khalilzad in Munich on February 15, 2020. (Photo: Presidential palace)

The Taliban and Afghan forces have been continuing their attacks and offensives after the formalisation of the deal was made official by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defence Secretary Mark Esper at the Munich Conference. A formal announcement is expected over the next few days. The Taliban have also talked about a deal-signing at the end of this month with about two dozen international representatives, a prisoner swap of 1000s on both sides and intra-Afghan talks within 10 days of the signing. With the IEC announcement, President Ghani has to quickly reach a consensus on what is thought to be a 15-member delegation for those talks while his main rival raises questions of the President’s legality. The developments of announcing disputed Presidential election results in the same week as the expected U.S.-Taliban deal raises questions of political motivation. 

As China Battles Coronavirus, Its India Envoy Fights Perception

By
Surya Gangadharan;
-

NEW DELHI: “The (Coronavirus) epidemic is generally under control and the dawn is beginning to appear through our arduous efforts.”

With those words (and a trifle optimistically), Sun Weidong, China’s Ambassador to India, held the first briefing for the Indian media on the virus which has severely damaged his country’s international standing and disrupted global supply chains of which China is a crucial part.

“Virus is borderless and a common threat to everyone in this world,” he said while reading from a prepared text. He gave no timeline when China could declare itself virus-free given that the origins of the virus were still being investigated. “Not enough is known about the virus, our scientists are working on it but based on genomic research it is based in nature,” he said indirectly refuting rumours that the virus originated in a Wuhan bioweapons laboratory.

He called upon India and the international community to restore transport and trade links with China. It will be “beneficial to the development of both China and India as well as the global economy. It will help bilateral trade and economic cooperation get back on track. In this context, helping China is actually helping yourself.”

He admitted that in the short-term, the virus would hit China economically “but it’s easier to shake a mountain than China”. The economic downturn “will impact on the world but in the long term it will be mitigated. We are fighting the epidemic but also resuming production in state enterprises. The earlier we win this battle, the sooner supply chains will be restored.”

He said Beijing was informing and updating India on the status of the fight against the virus and pointed to the assistance provided in evacuating Indian citizens from Wuhan. He also appreciated the solidarity and support extended by India. “Recently PM Modi sent a letter of condolence to President Xi Jinping. The Indian side assures readiness to stand by China and provide the assistance that India can, to face this challenge,” Ambassador Sun said.

In his view, China was winning the battle. New confirmed cases of Coronavirus infection outside Hubei province have dropped for 14 consecutive days, from 890 in the first week of this month to 17 as of February 17. More than 12,000 cases have been declared infection free and discharged. The ambassador credited the strong leadership of President Xi Jinping and the Communist Party of China for driving the country forward to combat the epidemic.

British MP Cries Foul After Being Deported; India Says Her Visa Was Cancelled

By
Parul Chandra;
-

NEW DELHI: She came and was deported!
Debbie Abrahams, a Labour MP of British Parliament and a vocal critic of the Indian government’s Kashmir policies including the abrogation of Article 370, was booted out of the country shortly after her arrival at Delhi Airport. Immigration authorities put her on an Emirates flight to Dubai (from where she had flown to Delhi).

It turned out her Indian e-visa issued last October had been cancelled. Government sources told StratNews Global that she was “not in possession of a valid visa to visit India. Entry into the country was therefore denied.”

The British MP said she “tried to establish why the visa had been revoked and if I could get a ‘visa on arrival’ Later, she tweeted: “Why did the Indian government revoke my visa AFTER it was granted? Why didn’t they let me get a ‘visa on arrival’? Is it because I have been critical of the Indian government on Kashmir human rights issues?”

The Union home ministry said she was informed about her visa’s cancellation before her arrival in New Delhi. The MP, however, said she hadn’t received any information before February 13 after which she was travelling.

A British High Commission spokesperson said: “We are in contact with the Indian authorities to understand why Deborah Abrahams MP was denied entry to India.”

But the reason may not be hard to find. The Indian government’s move to send her back was to convey a message to her and the political party she represents, Labour. Their statements on Kashmir in recent months after its special status was revoked have left New Delhi fuming. Abrahams is also chair of the all-party parliamentary group on Kashmir and has been sharply critical of the Indian government’s decision to reduce J&K to a Union Territory. She is learnt to have written to India’s ‘High Commissioner Ruchi Ghanshyam, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres and UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab on the issue.

Her angry letters reflected Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s criticism of India’s Kashmir policy. Corbyn had tweeted: “The situation in Kashmir is deeply disturbing. Human rights abuses taking place are unacceptable. The rights of the Kashmiri people must be respected and UN resolutions implemented.”

This was followed by the party passing an emergency motion on Kashmir on September 25 last year, wherein it asked Corbyn to seek international observers for the region. The motion also sought the right of self-determination for the Kashmiri people.

The motion prompted a sharp response with New Delhi saying that “this is an attempt at pandering to vote-bank interests”, hinting at Labour’s need to pander to its British Pakistani constituency. New Delhi warned that “There is no question of engaging with the Labour Party or its representatives on this issue.”

Abraham’s deportation may resonate among Indians here but her complaint about the conduct of an Indian immigration official must be probed. She claimed that the official after disappearing with her passport for 10 minutes returned and was “very rude and aggressive shouting at me to ‘Come with me”.

There may be a need to sensitise immigration officials at airports and seaports on how to conduct themselves. Abraham has family in India and the incident would have left its mark on them too.

Red Tape Vs Maj. Gen Promotion

By
Team StratNews
-

Even as the Supreme Court has ordered the Indian Army to grant command function to women officers and also ensure permanent commission in all branches except in combat arms, some elements in the Ministry of Defence (MoD) are working overtime to deny a woman Major General of the Army Medical Corps (AMC) her rightful promotion to the rank of Lt. General due from March 1. Attempts are currently under way to promote the woman Major General’s junior before her ostensibly because he is set to retire at the end of February. The reasoning: the lady officer has age on her side and can therefore wait for her promotion until the next vacancy arises later this year whereas the male officer (approved for Lt Gen but not promoted like the lady officer since vacancies in the AMC are limited) has less than a fortnight to retire. At a time when the government is pushing for more woman empowerment, especially in uniform, this move by some civilian bureaucrats (AMC promotion process has not been transferred to the newly created Department of Military Affairs but still remains with the Department of Defence) is raising a lot of eyebrows in South Block.

Ministry Mess

By
Team StratNews
-

A senior minister has been reportedly sidelined for failing to sort out the mess in his ministry. Apparently, all files relating to this crucial sector are being sent to another ministry for perusal and senior officers are being briefed on a daily basis on where the issues are and what needs to be done to resolve them. The issues go back to the UPA years but remained unaddressed in the first five years of the Modi government. So it would seem the time for action has finally come.

Huawei 5G: The Chinese Trojan Horse India Shouldn’t Let In

By
Lt Gen PR Shankar (Retd);
-

TUMMIDI, ANDHRA PRADESH: The Achaeans battered their heads against the walls of Troy and were continuously repulsed for a decade. The breakthrough came when they used the Trojan Horse to breach the defences of Troy through subterfuge and then destroyed the city and slaughtered its people completely. That is an old fable. In my opinion Huawei’s 5G is the modern Trojan Horse being used by China to enter the life stream of India to subjugate and destroy it. That is the new story. We need to be aware of this. Why am I saying this? There are reports that Huawei has been cleared by a set of experts to enter the Indian fray. It is now all set to enter India since it will meet all criteria and will be L1 by hook or crook. If it happens it will signal the end of Indian independence as we know it. There are many aspects to this development which need to be deliberated upon. I will highlight a few of them.

Rules, Regulations And Legality

There are strict and clear rules and regulations laid down by the government that no Chinese software or hardware item can be part of any defence equipment. To quote an example, Intel chips are made in a foundry in China. Intel certifies that these chips are clean and devoid of any malware or embedded backdoor traps. However, this is not accepted and does not hold water when it comes to using Intel chips in sensitive systems and networks. Since they are made in China, we simply cannot use them in our networks. Period. If that is the case, how can Huawei 5G, which is totally Chinese, be used as our national backbone system? Some will say it will be for civilian purposes only. But can someone tell me how one differentiates between civilian and security communication when it comes to backbone systems? In case anyone has any doubt left, Huawei 5G will be the backbone system in the near future if allowed to get in. Communication is the lifeblood of any system. If Huawei’s 5G is allowed to step in, we will have Chinese lifeblood in all our communications. That is plainly illegal. Can anyone explain anything contrary to me? Why are the MOD and Ministry of Telecommunication speaking differently? Has the decision to allow Huawei a crack at the Indian communication cake passed muster through MoD or is it an ex-parte decision by a set of single sided experts?

International Reputation

If Huawei has an international reputation of being lily white, we could consider it. However, the reputation of Huawei is quite the opposite. It is synonymous with intellectual theft and espionage in the West. USA has banned it. Its finance chief has been arrested in Canada and is under extradition to USA. There are clear reports and indications that PLA has deep connections with Huawei and has links with Chinese military intelligence and espionage. There is a backlash in Europe against Huawei 5G and other Chinese technology. It is not trustworthy to say the least. If USA, Canada and Europe which have better monitoring systems have security concerns, how can an open society with porous systems like India wish that Huawei will not work or front for China? How does one explain these concerns away? How does one feel comfortable with a company operating pan-India reporting to PLA HQ or Beijing? This could be a precursor to events which might put us in a position similar to the Philippines whose power grid can be shut off by the Chinese at their will. These questions need to be answered beyond doubt. Can we run that risk?

Strategic Partnership At Stake

Then there are other concerns. India and USA have a strategic partnership. If our strategic partner has problems with Huawei for concerns relating to intellectual theft and military espionage, should we not step back to re-consider? After all, we have signed a binding agreement with our strategic partner which is also our major defence partner. It is called COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement). It allows each other to share high-end encrypted communication and satellite data. It will also mean sharing intelligence data of Chinese submarine operations. COMCASA is a legal framework for defence technology transfer. If we have Huawei for our backbone communications, which is banned by USA, how can this strategic partnership work? Far from strategic partnership, we might be looking at imminent U.S. sanctions. As a nation we should decide who our adversaries and friends are. Remember the hype of ‘Howdy Modi’ and the ‘jhappi pappi’ with Trump? Have we forgotten the closed-door meeting of the Security Council? To refresh memories, it was mooted by China at the behest of Pakistan but blocked by USA. All these were based on our action to abrogate Article 370, I believe. The wider ramifications have been obviously missed out.

National Consciousness Of Sovereignty

As a nation, it was our conscious decision not to participate in the BRI and CPEC. Why? It did not take our sovereignty concerns into consideration. If that be so, how can any set of Indians take this conscious decision to allow Huawei 5G with its questionable antecedents into India? If we hand over our backbone communications to Huawei, we are at risk of handing over our sovereignty to them. Let us not have any doubts about it. If this government or any government does so, it will be held for dereliction of duty amounting to treason as much as Nehru is held responsible for the Chinese debacle in 1962. I do not have to say anything more. I will leave the rest to history. They will run the risk of being branded as traitors. In any case the defeated always face the wrath of history. On that issue I have no doubt. Let me put another fact forward. If we do allow Huawei to enter India with its 5G, we might as well stop guarding our borders. Then, it makes no sense that the PM comes on air in a special broadcast to announce the successful ASAT test firing. Our nuclear posturing has no meaning. Our space prowess has no value. We might as well form a tripartite pact comprising India, China and Pakistan. We will then be called Chindia. I also hope that the new CDS and the Chiefs of Staff have been taken on board. If they have also agreed to let Huawei in, then I have no further comment to make except they will not be respected by their Forces. That’s my most charitable comment.

Societal Angle

Let us look at it from another angle. There is a view that we need 5G since it is the future of communications. Agreed. Why Huawei? It is the cheapest. But the price we might otherwise pay will be heavy. It ranges from loss of privacy to loss of independence. Further, will our purpose be served better if we have Chinese 5G or if we have better roads, health, sanitation and other social schemes which affect the life of a common Indian? I am writing this piece from a remote village in the heart of Andhra Pradesh. The lives of people here will not change if 5G comes in. It will change if villages are modernized. Remember, Gandhiji said that India lives in its villages. In fact, the average villager has more than enough communications. He lacks education, jobs, health, hygiene and sanitation, roads, energy, social security and many other things. Focus on 5G by the government will be at the cost of these necessities.

Experts’ View

I have an issue with some in the expert committee that has recommended Huawei 5G be allowed entry into India. I understand that there are intellectuals and thinking Indians of international repute in this committee who are convincing the government that Huawei is India’s best bet. However, I am a bit sceptical of such super nationalists who exhibit their nationalism via China. They need to be guarded against. I understand that some of them were spurned by USA also. Social media indicates a lobby is operating from USA. It is trying to convince India that Chinese 5G is good for India when it failed in USA! Strange. The whole thing seems to me like an animated film in which a U.S./NRI salesman is trying to sell Chinese poison to an Indian rat and convincing it that eating the Chinese poison will make it healthy, wealthy and strong. Some sales pitch!

Cyber War

The minimum take on Huawei 5G entering India is that our security and sovereignty will be compromised. The normal take will be that the Huawei Horse is being ‘Trojanned’ by China very deliberately into India. It is cyber war being unleashed in the slickest and most skillful manner. The designs and plans are ominous. I will leave to Indians to decide their fate. From a very personal perspective, which I am sure of, many Servicemen and uniformed people will agree with, is that any government or individual who allows Huawei 5G into India has national credentials of doubtful nature bordering on being anti-national. A final thought. The armed forces of India are deployed on borders to safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity of India and to protect the core values enshrined in our Constitution—liberty, equality, fraternity. They cannot be compromised through a commercial 5G contract at New Delhi.

 

 

(Lt Gen. PR Shankar (retd) put Indian Artillery on a firm path of modernisation. He is presently a professor at the Aerospace Department of IIT Madras. Views expressed in this article are personal.)

5G Trials: How Ready Is India?

By
Surya Gangadharan;
-

NEW DELHI: In about two weeks, India’s Department of Telecom (DoT) is expected to green-light the 5G trials by telecom operators involving world players Ericsson, Samsung, Huawei and others. The trials are being conducted at their cost, which is expected to work out to around Rs 60 crore each over the next year.

StratNews Global learns that the equipment has already been brought into the country and will be installed when the go-ahead is given. The trials will cover both urban and rural areas but those members of the public expecting to avail of 5G services during the period of trial will be disappointed, said an industry insider. “This is completely standalone network meant only to demonstrate speed and latency of the network,” he said. “The Department of Telecom and the security establishment are clear that this is a trial and therefore it cannot be used by the public.”

The operators have submitted their 5G trial applications and are awaiting approvals from the government and the industry says any new additional requirement from DoT could delay the trials.

The industry also believes the government must get its priorities right, in this case the spectrum auction slated for April-May. Given the government insistence on high spectrum reserve prices, there may be no bidders for 5G spectrum when the auction happens. Vodafone-Idea is not expected to bid, given its stressed financial condition. Bharti Airtel and Jio are expected to bid for 4G LTE spectrum—which they currently hold—due to expire in 2021. This is essential to ensure that their operations are not impacted. Jio may also bid for spectrum in 850 MHz which is critical for its 4G network and of which it does not have sufficient quantity.

So it would appear that the entire auction could collapse but, curiously, the government seems okay with the failure of the bid rather than cancelling the auction. The latter, StratNews Global was told, would involve a messy inquiry. On the other hand, an auction which involves no bids implies that the price of spectrum will fall, therefore making it more affordable for telecom operators going forward. Even in the recent past, reserve prices of spectrum were reduced after auctions failed.

It’s also important to note that running a 5G network is not going to be cheap. It will cost an operator upward of Rs1.5 lakh crore for the spectrum alone to set up a 5G network. Another Rs 6-7 lakh crore will have to be invested in the running of the network over its lifetime. Additional revenues that can be expected, amount to no more than Rs 1 lakh crore annually. So the financial viability of the network is in serious question.

Muddled government thinking has not helped matters. A case in point is the Indian Railways, which is seeking 5 MHz spectrum in 700 MHz to set up an ultra high-speed LTE based communications corridor along its network for ground-to-train and train-to- train communications. The Department of Telecom is expected to ask the railways to cough up Rs 35,000 crore for that much spectrum, money which the public carrier cannot be expected to have. State-run Bharat Sanchar Nigam then stepped in offering to share its spectrum with the railways. But given that the former is considered sick (and in the middle of extensive restructuring), the offer though well-meaning cannot be taken seriously.

These developments have underscored the larger mess in the telecom sector, of which the DoT’s recent directive to telecom operators to pay up their adjusted gross revenues (following a Supreme Court nudge), is only one part. The operators are hoping to spread the payments out over a number of years to soften the financial impact.

That aside, the industry believes that with 55 networks worldwide running on 5G, India cannot afford to play the laggard in this crucial sector. A positive move on 5G could give a big boost to Indian IT which otherwise would lose out on global opportunities.

Is the government waking up? Recall External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar saying recently that this government was working to resolve issues left unattended by successive governments in the past. One hears that the Union Home Ministry is now seized of the telecom mess and is receiving daily briefings on a range of matters including 5G. Hopefully there could be light the end of the tunnel.

We Can Make Any Missile Indian Armed Forces Need: DRDO Chief

By
Nitin A. Gokhale;
-
YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: India is self-sufficient in missile technology and can make any missile that its armed forces need, says Dr G. Satheesh Reddy, Chairman of Defence Research and Defence Organisation (DRDO). Speaking to Nitin A. Gokhale, Editor-in-Chief of StratNews Global, Dr Reddy said DRDO works in complete synergy with the armed forces to understand their requirements and can accordingly deliver within a short span of time. Calling the anti-satellite test, conducted by India in March last year, a deterrent, Dr Reddy said the mission—planned and executed in two years—was extremely complex and warranted clinical precision


FATF Meet: Pak Unlikely To Be Blacklisted But Holding Its Feet To Fire

By
StratNews Global;
-
YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: The conviction of UN-designated terrorist and 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks mastermind Hafiz Saeed by a Pak court has come almost on cue. The terror watchdog FATF (Financial Action Task Force) has a crucial plenary meeting where it will assessed if Pakistan has done enough to crack down on terror funding and money laundering and whether its plea to be removed from the ‘grey list’ should be considered. Saeed’s sentencing in two cases, in the light of the upcoming FATF meet, is therefore being perceived as a mere eyewash. Sushant Sareen who is a Senior Fellow with the New Delhi-based think-tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF) and a keen Pak-watcher believes that if FATF decisions were taken objectively and purely on the basis of criteria laid down by it, Pakistan would find itself in its blacklist. However, as he tells StratNews Global Editor Surya Gangadharan and Deputy Editor Parul Chandra in this interview, FATF’s decision-making also has a political element to it. So while India may want Pakistan blacklisted, Sareen says it’s better to keep the sword of blacklisting hanging over Pakistan’s head to ensure it keeps taking steps to comply with FATF’s requirements on checking terror activities on its soil. FATF’s hawk-eye will also mean that the channelling of money to terror outfits by Pakistan will also remain constrained, says Sareen. He also slams the Americans for their dealing with Pakistan on terror, noting that while they’re not naive, it’s difficult to see sense in what they do. Sareen’s also critical of US state department official Alice G.Wells, for her comments describing as a “way forward” the conviction of Saeed. “Why should she issue a certificate like this? It makes no sense,” said Sareen while referring to Pakistan’s duplicity when it comes to cracking down on terrorists and terror outfits operating from its soil. Watch the interview for more:


Who Are They? Profiles Of The Three Indian-Origin Ministers In Boris’s New Cabinet

By
Ashwin Ahmad;
-

NEW DELHI: “What the prime minister giveth, the prime minister taketh away…” These words from a Facebook post by former environment secretary Theresa Villiers, summed up the Conservative party’s abject acceptance of the cabinet purge by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

The Trump-style sacking and the induction of the new cabinet ministers, many of whom are perceived to be devoted to both Boris and Brexit, suggests the UK will give little when negotiations begin with the EU.

It also underscores Boris Johnson’s supremacy within the party, unlike previous prime ministers who had to tolerate powerful dissenting voices in the party and cabinet. A prime example was Johnson himself when he was foreign secretary in the government of Theresa May. He quit in protest against her Chequers plan for the EU in 2018 claiming it would reduce the UK to “the status of a colony.” Clearly the PM is doing everything he can to ensure the same does not happen to him.

But it hasn’t been all smooth sailing. The walkout by Sajid Javid as Chancellor has left Boris with a headache that he could have well done without, as the new chancellor Rishi Sunak, son-in-law of Infosys tycoon Narayana Murthy, has less than a month to prepare before the budget is presented on March 11.

Along with Sunak, there are other high-profile Indian origin names in the cabinet entrusted with major portfolios. United in their commitment to Brexit and their belief that Boris can ‘Get Brexit Done’ – his electoral campaign slogan before he becomes PM – here’s a look at these right-thinking men and women.

 

 

Priti Patel
Home Secretary

A die-hard conservative, Priti Patel is a dream candidate for any hard-right conservative prime minister. Born in the UK to Gujarati parents who emigrated there, her political rise was swift. Beginning as a corporate lobbyist, she was elected to the seat of Witham, Essex in 2010, but her political career really took off in 2016 when she campaigned for leaving the EU.

The fact that a British-Indian was voting to cut down on immigration won her laurels and she became International Development Secretary in the Theresa May government from 2016 to 2017 before the ‘Israeli scandal’ struck. She, however, bounced back to become the mainstay of the Boris Johnson cabinet as Home Secretary where she has championed controversial reforms.

An unabashed admirer of former prime minister Margaret Thatcher and Narendra Modi, analysts note that Priti Patel holds no desire to seek the middle ground when it comes to politics. Her work bears this out. From lobbying against EU regulations on behalf of alcohol and tobacco companies, to supporting the death penalty in an interview. Last year, she vowed to end freedom of movement between Britain and EU nationals (in a plan that bears her name), and has remained a champion of the hard right. With Patel as Home Secretary, Britain truly will become an island in all senses.

 

Rishi Sunak
Chancellor

A relatively unknown entity on the British political scene so far, Rishi Sunak is an embodiment of the elitist charge that critics are hurling at the new cabinet. Born in 1980 in Southampton in Hampshire, he has studied at the exclusive private school Winchester College and then going on to philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford University. He also studied for an MBA at Stanford University. Not surprisingly, he became a businessman, co-founding a large investment firm, before turning to politics.

Sunak campaigned for Leave in the EU referendum, has been an ardent supporter of Boris Johnson and has made a number of media appearances on his behalf. His loyalty has been rewarded and he was picked by Boris to be the Chief Secretary to the Treasury – the third most senior position in the UK treasury after the Chancellor and the First Lord of the Treasury.

Boris’s rising faith in him was shown when he was sent to represent him in a key electoral debate. His statement, “I wouldn’t support Boris if he was a racist,” sought to blunt critics who had attacked the prime minister of racism especially after his controversial “burka” remarks and it did succeed.

Politics aside, the market is betting big on Sunak with the pound having risen in anticipation of a big-spending stimulus. If this happens, this will be in stark contrast with the more fiscally conservative Sajid Javid who had insisted on the government balancing its budget and thus resisted any spending spree. The ball is now in Sunak’s court.

 

Alok Sharma
Business and Energy Secretary, President COP26

The sacking of Andrea Leadsom from the post has led to the elevation of Alok Sharma to the coveted post. A qualified chartered accountant, Sharma has worked in banking for over 16 years and prior to this was International Development Secretary since July 2019.

But while the removal of Leadsom was on the cards, she was one of two candidates who had challenged Boris for the leadership of the Conservative party, the surprise was that Sharma would be made the president of the COP26 event to be held in Glasgow. His elevation meant the surprise sacking of Claire Perry O’Neill, the former president of COP26.

The international event is expected to see 30,000 delegates from around the world, including business leaders and climate experts and detailed negotiations will need to be made before the conference in November. Some say such negotiations require more than the nine-month time period that Sharma has, to get ready for the summit.

Previous summits have tended to be led by the host government’s most prominent minister with a relevant portfolio, usually the environment minister. In this case, analysts say the fact that this job was handed over to Sharma after former prime minister David Cameron and former foreign secretary William Hague turned it down, suggests that it may not be high up on the government’s list of priorities. This will not help him in his new role.

Despite all the low-key expectations from the summit, especially after President Trump labeled climate change a “hoax” Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be keen to portray COP26 as a global success given that it is being hosted in the UK. Hence, the pressure will be on Sharma to ensure the island nation does not trip over itself on the world stage.

‘None Of The Three Inquiries I Faced Proved Me Guilty’

By
Nitin A. Gokhale;
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YouTube Video

COLOMBO: The United States has banned Sri Lanka’s Army Commander Shavendra Silva and his immediate family members from entering the country over what it calls ‘credible’ war crime charges—mainly gross violations of human rights, especially extrajudicial killings by the army during the final phase of the Eelam War in 2009. But in an interview in December last year to Nitin A. Gokhale, founder of BharatShakti.in, who now also heads StratNews Global, Gen. Silva questioned the motive of the allegations against him. I have faced three enquiries in Sri Lanka under the law but no court has declared me guilty, he said. Shouldn’t the basic principle of natural justice—presumed innocent till proven guilty—apply to me, the General asked. “And why was there no fuss when I was Sri Lanka’s envoy to the United Nations for four years and a half?”


US Bans Army Commander Shavendra Silva

By
TSM Web Desk;
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COLOMBO: The United States has banned Army Commander Shavendra Silva and his immediate family members from entering the country over ‘credible’ war crime charges.

The statement issued by US Secretary of State, Michael R. Pompeo, is reproduced below;

The Department of State has designated Lieutenant General Shavendra Silva, current Commander of the Sri Lanka Army and Acting Chief of Defense Staff, as required under Section 7031(c) of the Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, due to credible information of his involvement, through command responsibility, in gross violations of human rights, namely extrajudicial killings, by the 58th Division of the Sri Lanka Army during the final phase of Sri Lanka’s Civil War in 2009.

Section 7031(c) provides that, in cases where the Secretary of State has credible information that foreign officials have been involved in a gross violation of human rights or significant corruption, those individuals and their immediate family members are ineligible for entry into the United States. The law also requires the Secretary of State to publicly or privately designate such officials and their immediate family members. In addition to the public designation of Shavendra Silva, the Department is also designating his immediate family members.

The allegations of gross human rights violations against Shavendra Silva, documented by the United Nations and other organizations, are serious and credible. His designation underscores the importance we place on human rights in Sri Lanka and globally, our concern over impunity for human rights violations and abuses, as well as our support for promoting accountability for those who engage in such acts. We urge the Sri Lankan government to promote human rights, hold accountable individuals responsible for war crimes and human rights violations, advance security sector reform, and uphold its other commitments to pursue justice and reconciliation.

We deeply value our partnership with the Sri Lankan government and the long-standing democratic tradition we share with the Sri Lankan people. The United States remains committed to strengthening the bilateral relationship with Sri Lanka and helping reshape its security forces to tackle current and emerging threats. Security cooperation will continue to emphasize respect for human rights as a fundamental component of our training, assistance, and engagements.

The United States will continue to use all available tools and authorities, as appropriate, to address human rights violations and abuses around the world no matter when they occurred or who perpetrated them. Today’s actions underscore our commitment to support human rights, promote accountability for perpetrators, and encourage reconciliation in support of a peaceful, stable, and prosperous Sri Lanka.

(By arrangement with www.themorning.lk)

‘U.S.-Taliban Deal Is Back To Square One Like In September 2019’

By
Amitabh P. Revi;
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YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: The U.S. and the Taliban have agreed to a seven-day “reduction in violence”. The deal can potentially set the stage for a more lasting and long-sought peace deal. At NATO’s headquarters in Brussels,  U.S. Defence Secretary Mark Esper has said the arrangement, which he did not describe as a ceasefire, came after over a year of negotiations with the Taliban.  Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has also welcomed what he called “a pretty important breakthrough” in Afghan peace talks. The U.S.-Taliban deal is expected  to be signed in Doha on February 29, followed by intra-Afghan talks on March 10. The agreement is expected to also announce a phased, conditional U.S. troop withdrawal over 18 months.

India’s ex-Ambassador to Afghanistan Vivek Katju and StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P. Revi discuss what the contours of the deal seem to be, how President Donald Trump may reward Pakistan and what that means for India. Ambassador Katju also talks about the political dynamics in Kabul, the nomenclature of a  reduction in violence vs a ceasefire and what any backroom deal or secret annexes to the deal will mean to the peace process. The ex-envoy is also adamant that India should not send any boots on the ground to Afghanistan (as reported on StratNews Global) even under a UN flag. If and when the Taliban are in any joint Afghan governance authority, Ambassador Katju feels they will be for intense security cooperation with India.

Vivek Katju has also been Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs and Ambassador to Thailand and Myanmar (Burma).


Terrorist Hafiz Saeed’s Conviction: The Pakistani Farce Isn’t Tough To Fathom

By
Parul Chandra;
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NEW DELHI: There’s a sense of the farcical in Hafiz Saeed’s conviction by a Pakistani court. He was found guilty of arranging funds for terrorist organisations, not for actually running terrorist strikes against India including the Mumbai attacks in November 2008. The five and a half year sentence (two convictions to run concurrently) comes loaded with a helpful clause that grants him the benefit of a reduced jail term. So for all we know, Saeed will rejoin his merry men of the Lashkar-e-Toiba before long.

There’s an interesting money angle here too. He’s been fined Rs 30,000 (less than $200) by the court. Last year, in an unprecedented display of solicitude, the Pakistani government petitioned the UN Security Council (since Saeed is a UN-designated global terrorist) to allow him to withdraw Rs1,50,000 (about $970) from his bank account every month to meet the expenses of his family. Incidentally, Saeed reportedly continues to draw a pension of Rs 45,700 ($296) from his 25-year service as an assistant professor at the University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore. Extraordinarily good going for a globally designated terrorist!

So India remains sceptical, noting the timing of Saeed’s conviction: just days ahead of the meeting of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in Paris that will review Islamabad’s progress (if any) in curbing terrorism financing. Pakistan has been on the FATF Grey List since 2018.

But Washington appears gung ho. Alice Wells, a senior diplomat in the Bureau of Central and South Asian Affairs of the State Department, described Saeed’s conviction as “an important step forward—both toward holding LeT accountable for its crimes and for Pakistan in meeting its international commitments to combat terrorist financing”.

She even went the extra mile giving Pak Prime Minister Imran Khan a pat on the back, in a tweet: “And as @ImranKhanPTI has said, it is in the interest of #Pakistan’s future that it not allow non-state actors to operate from its soil. AGW.”

So can one expect a FATF verdict favourable to Pakistan next week? It’s possible and you have to read the tea leaves closely to understand why. An Afghanistan peace deal could be on cards with Washington seeking a partial cessation of violence by the Taliban as a sign of good faith. That demand may make little sense in the winter when Taliban operations generally reduce. But the point is Pakistan may have played a key role here in “persuading” senior Taliban leaders to go along. Incidentally, most if not all of them are in Pakistan with their families.

Ergo, Pakistan has to be rewarded and what better than a favourable FATF verdict. Ironically, about four months ago the FATF had in a report warned that Pakistan “faces significant ML (money laundering) and TF (terror financing) risks,” adding that “A number of terrorists groups, including UN-listed groups, operate in Pakistan all of which raise funds through a variety of means including direct support, public fundraising, abuse of NPOs (non-profit organisations) and through criminal activities. Funds are moved through formal and informal (mainly hawala/hundi) channels.”

A favourable verdict will give Pakistan a breather from international pressure and hopefully lessen the hard terms being set by global lending institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Unfortunately, it will not change the Pakistani government’s continued use of terrorist groups and the support it provides to thugs like Hafiz Saeed.

‘India-UK Ties Will Strengthen Post-Brexit’

By
Ashwin Ahmad;
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YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: Post-Brexit, India will find itself being wooed more assiduously by the UK and the European Union. As Ranjan Mathai, former foreign secretary and former high commissioner to the UK, points out in an interview with StratNews Global Opinion Editor Ashwin Ahmad, the formal exit of the UK from the EU on January 31 will see the UK turning more to global power centres, among which is India. Mathai believes that post-Brexit, the India-UK relationship will only get stronger with the UK likely to put greater focus on sharing defence technology then it has in the past. India must, however, continue to be watchful of the “Pakistani element” within the UK whose protests are likely to increase. Coming to Europe and the EU’s CAA resolution, Mathai says such anti-India resolutions are nothing new as pro-Pakistan lobbies have been pushing the European Parliament to take up resolutions on Kashmir, Punjab, Narmada dam etc. While he concedes that the CAA resolution is “bad optics” and India must work more actively to woo EU parliamentarians and the western media, many of whom have written many negative articles about it, he believes that PM Modi’s upcoming visit to Brussels will see both sides more willing to do business then has been the case in the past.


Philippines Officially Notifies U.S. To End Visiting Forces Agreement

By
Xinhua;
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MANILA: The Philippines has officially notified the United States about the termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) between Manila and Washington, Philippines’s top diplomat said on Tuesday.

“The Deputy Chief of Mission of the Embassy of the United States has received the notice of termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement. As a diplomatic courtesy there will be no further factual announcements following this self-explanatory development,” Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin tweeted.

Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo confirmed the Philippines’ move to end the military agreement that allows the U.S. forces to conduct large-scale joint military exercises with Philippine troops in the Philippines.

Panelo said Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte directed Executive Secretary Salvador Medialdea on Monday night to tell Locsin to send the notice of termination to the U.S. government.

Panelo told a news conference that the termination process will begin “180 days from the receipt of the notice of the termination”. “The effectivity of (the notice of termination) will be 180 days from the receipt of the U.S. government of such notice,” Panelo said.

“From what I read from the agreement there is no need for the (reply of the U.S. government). There’s no response needed,” Panelo said, adding Duterte can terminate the VFA himself.

“As the president said, it’s about time we rely on our own resources. We need to strengthen our own capability as a country relative to the defense of our land,” Panelo said.

Panelo said scrapping the VFA will have little impact on the country’s security situation, saying some countries have offered to train with the Philippines, like Britain.

Panelo said that Duterte wants to deal with countries that will treat the Philippines as equal. “We do not want a one-sided agreement,” he said.

Duterte decided to scrap VFA after the U.S. cancelled the U.S. visa of Senator Ronald Dela Rosa, Duterte’s longtime aide, over Dela Rosa’s role in the war on drugs when he was Philippine National Police chief.

Moreover, Duterte was offended by calls of some U.S. senators to free detained Senator Leila de Lima, who has been detained over drug-related charges since February 2017.

The Philippines and the U.S. signed in 1998 a VFA allowing joint Philippine-U.S. military operations. The Philippine senate ratified the agreement in 1999, seven years after the closure of the last U.S. base on Philippine territory.

In 2014, Manila and Washington signed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States.

The 10-year renewable defense pact allows for the increased presence of U.S. forces, ships, aircraft and equipment in the Philippines and greater access to Philippine military bases. Under the new defense accord, U.S. military personnel in the Philippines are to be deployed on a rotational basis.

Duterte had earlier said that he wants all security agreements between the U.S. and the Philippines reviewed or scrapped.

India’s ‘Operation Insaniyat’ For Rohingyas More To Placate Dhaka Than To Pressurise Nay Pyi Taw

By
StratNews Global;
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YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: As India walks the tight-rope between Dhaka and Nay Pyi Taw on the Rohingya crisis, it’s unlikely that Myanmar will take these displaced people back. Dr Avinash Paliwal who is a lecturer in Diplomacy and Public Policy at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), London and is currently focusing on India-Myanmar ties, told Deputy Editor Parul Chandra and Opinion Editor Ashwin Ahmad that it’s difficult for New Delhi to play a more pro-active role in the Rohingya issue given the strategic importance of its neighbour. With ties between Nay Pyi Taw and Beijing in a close clinch, Dr Paliwal says greater pressure on Myanmar will only push it into an even tighter strategic embrace with China. Besides, India’s limited expertise and resources also make it difficult to push Myanmar more on the Rohingya issue. It’s to be noted that China has backed Myanmar on the Rohingya issue on the global stage. With Chinese President Xi Jinping also visiting Myanmar last month, it’s evident that the country’s salience for Myanmar is growing. As Dr Paliwal notes, it’s a challenging task for any neighbour of Myanmar or even the big powers to match the capacity and capabilities of China. He also sees in the Chinese outreach to Myanmar a clear focus on the country’s military.  As for the elections coming up in Myanmar later this year, Paliwal says Aung San Sui Kyi’s relationship with her country’s army has deepened and while western governments may be critical of her, domestically her position remains strong. Watch this interview for more:


‘The Coronavirus Is A Terrible Tragedy But Will China Absorb The Right Lessons?’

By
Surya Gangadharan;
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YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: It’s anybody’s guess  what the death toll in the Coronavirus outbreak in China will eventually be. It’s even less clear if the final number the authorities come up with is the true figure.  But that’s the problem with Xi Jinping’s China. His security-driven approach to his countrymen may have impeded the flow of information, resulting to some degree, in the tragedy sweeping China. In Talking Point, leading China scholar Madhu Bhalla, and Jayadeva Ranade of the Centre for China Analysis & Strategy, offer nuanced viewpoints on the political and economic impact the Coronavirus could have.  Xi’s low public profile until a few days ago, suggests a need to not be in the eye of the storm. But there is a storm raging on China’s social media with many calling for reform, freedom and curbs on the power of the Communist Party. Bhalla doubts if this could result in a premature end to Xi’s career, but Ranade suspects his ambition for a third term (and beyond) could be the casualty.


‘Hope NSA-Level Trilateral Resumes Soon, Have Invited India & Lanka To Malé’

By
Amitabh P. Revi;
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YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: Maldives Defence Minister Mariya Ahmed Didi, in conversation with StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P. Revi, says she hopes the resumption of NSA-level trilateral talks will take place soon in Malé. She also was positive on the possibility of re-including Mauritius and the Seychelles as observers in the trilaterals.

The India-Maldives-Sri Lanka NSA-level meetings were put on ice post 2014 after ex-Maldivian President Yameen Abdulla Yameen’s anti-India policies steered that country towards China. Three maritime cooperation trilaterals were held in 2011( Malé), in Colombo (2013) and in Delhi (2014).

Mariya Didi also talks about how impressed she was with the Lucknow DefExpo. She expressed interest in putting to good use India’s drone technolgies in anti-terrorism, anti-drug and anti-piracy operations to police the waters around the Maldives. Mariya Didi said the Coastal Radar Surveillance System will be fully operational soon. She acknowledges India being very forthcoming to all requests in the past and says current requests are being treated very positively by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat. One of the requests is for another patrol vessel like the Kaamyaab (gifted by India) which she says is tailor-made for the Maldives. The Defence Minister thanked New Delhi for evacuating Maldivians from coronavirus-hit Wuhan in China. India will also be providing protection for personnel dealing with HAZMAT(hazardous materials). Mariya Didi looked back at the eighth anniversary of ex-President Mohamed Nasheed being ousted from power(February 7, 2012) and the protests that were dealt with violently.

Mariya Ahmed Didi is Maldives’ first woman Defence Minister, multiple-time MP, her party (MDP’s) first woman chairperson and the country’s first woman lawyer.


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