Trump’s ‘Peace’ Plan: India Favours Israel-Palestine Talks, No Mediation

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Jan 29 2020, 22:39

NEW DELHI: Trump’s Israel-Palestine ‘peace’ plan has not found favour with many countries. India on Wednesday kept a fine line, urging direct negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel. External Affairs Ministry Spokesman Raveesh Kumar pointed out that “India has called for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian issue”.

The Palestinians who were not involved in the framing of the peace plan responded by saying it was a conspiracy. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said: “I say to Trump and Netanyahu—Jerusalem is not for sale, all our rights are not for sale and are not for bargain. And your deal, the conspiracy, will not pass.”

On the streets of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Palestinians described Trump’s plan as “a gift from a big thief to a small thief”, meaning Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is facing charges of corruption. Trump was slammed for not consulting the Palestinians.

Former Indian diplomat and West Asia expert Talmiz Ahmad told StratNews Global that the MEA statement not only supports the aspirations of the Palestinians for their own state but also makes it clear that there is no role for a third party (the U.S.) in the negotiations.

Ahmad also slammed the ‘peace plan’, saying that there was no sanctity to it as it was the work of two discredited leaders. Trump is facing impeachment proceedings and Netanyahu is charged with bribery and fraud and with both facing elections this year “their game plan is to divert the attention of the electorate from their misconduct”.

He found fault with the plan on several counts including gifting all of Jerusalem to Israel as capital; also giving away the Jordan Valley to Israel, which means that Palestine will no longer have direct geographic links to Jordan; also certain parts of the West Bank where Israel has already settled 4,00,000 people will become an integral part of that country.

Noting that by no stretch of the imagination can the plan be perceived to bring peace, Ahmad noted that Palestinians will also have to recognise Israel as a Jewish state and Hamas will need to be done away with by the Palestinians.

Trump’s motives for coming up with such a flawed plan are unclear; it may have been driven by the need to win the considerable Jewish vote in the November elections. Or, he may have wanted to showcase his ‘statesman’ credentials. He’s clearly failed as far as the latter is concerned, about the Jewish vote one has to wait and see.

‘Afghanistan Is Being Squeezed Out Of SAARC’

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Surya Gangadharan;

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Jan 29 2020, 17:11

YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: The suspension of the SAARC process owing to hurdles placed by Pakistan has had an unintended consequence. It cut off Afghanistan’s physical access to other SAARC members. The push for BIMSTEC and sub-regional cooperation has also accentuated Kabul’s sense of isolation within the South Asian fraternity, argues Nazir Kabiri of the Biruni Institute, a Kabul-based think tank. In a chat with StratNews Global’s Surya Gangadharan, Kabiri underscored his country’s frustration over the slow pace of work on the Chabahar Port in Iran, which is intended to relieve Afghanistan’s isolation. Options with Central Asian neighbours like Uzbekistan are also being explored. Naziri believes Afghanistan would be the ideal trade and transit bridge between Central and South Asia if only the politics were not so vitiated.

China-India-Bhutan: A Complex Triangle

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Nitin A. Gokhale;

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Jan 28 2020, 17:27

Nearly 30 months after the border standoff at Dolam (popularly known as Doklam) was resolved, China is far from giving up attempts to whittle down India’s influence over Bhutan, the third and most important angle of the triangular mess in the strategically important Himalayan frontier.

Throughout 2019, Beijing sought to increase the pressure on the Kingdom of Bhutan to arrive at a settlement over the still unresolved China-Bhutan border at the earliest. Feelers were sent and subtle hints dropped at every conceivable opportunity—be it at the UN or during trips by Chinese officials to Bhutan. Among the visitors was then Chinese envoy to India Luo Zhaohui since Beijing does not have an envoy in Thimphu as the two countries do not have formal diplomatic relations. So far, Thimphu has stood firm, helped considerably by India’s consistent and unambiguous support in looking after its security interests. The Indian Army continues to work in tandem with the Royal Bhutan Army in the Chumbi Valley—the scene of the 72-day faceoff in August 2017—while diplomats and senior security managers maintain close and frequent contacts with the decision-makers in the Kingdom.

Early this month, India’s newly appointed Army Chief Gen. MM Naravane, outgoing Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale and Samant Kumar Goyal, the head of India’s external intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), together made a quiet trip to Thimphu to confer with present king Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck and his father, the fourth king Jigme Singye Wangchuck, on matters that require immediate attention as India and Bhutan try to find a new idiom in their robust relationship. The border situation is always on top of the agenda when such discussions take place although of late a fresh irritant has crept into the relationship: the question of charging a fee—albeit a fraction charged to non-Indians—to Indian tourists visiting Bhutan has created a bit of resentment among tour operators and tourists.

On top of the list in the discussion on border was, of course, the vexed boundary question between China and Bhutan and the many ways in which it affects the security of India’s strategically located Chicken’s Neck corridor connecting the north-east with rest of the country. India, aware of the pressure on Bhutan, has stepped up its engagement on the issue at the highest level. In New Delhi’s assessment, sooner or later Thimphu will have to restart boundary talks with China and undertake some give and take. Having accepted the inevitability of such a possibility, India wants to ensure that its territorial integrity in the area is not threatened. New Delhi, therefore, ensures that all the relevant stakeholders in the national security set up are in constant touch with the Bhutanese leadership at the highest level.

The dynamics in the India-Bhutan relationship have particularly changed since the 2017 Dolam border crisis which starkly demonstrated the vulnerability of the tri-junction of India, China and Bhutan from the point of view of India’s security concerns.

That time, the Indian leadership handled the standoff deftly and forced China to back off from its attempt to extend a dirt track up to the Dolam plateau which looks down India’s Siliguri corridor. In 2017, India could swiftly intervene by stopping advancing Chinese construction team coming from the western side of the Dolam plateau because Indian Army posts located on the west of the plateau can closely watch Chinese movements and act swiftly. More than two years after that crisis, India has strengthened its already formidable presence on the border and has stepped up its coordinated patrols with the troops of the Royal Bhutan Army along both sides of the Dolam plateau.

However, India and Bhutan will have to make sure that any potential border settlement between Thimphu and Beijing in the future ensures that the Dolam plateau is not accessible to the Chinese troops either from the western side (attempted in 2017) or from the eastern side by skirting around the Ami Chu (river)—a track that is away from the prying Indian eyes, climbing the Jampheri ridge and reaching atop the Dolam plateau (see map)—making all Indian defences in the area infructuous since access to Dolam can give a virtual free run to any force wanting to roll down to the Siliguri corridor. Others disagree. Veteran military officers who have served in the area point out that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will have to deploy a large body of troops to break through strong Indian defences. Any advancing Chinese force will have no artillery cover or logistics support to sustain it beyond a couple of days.

Militarily, India can handle any crisis. What New Delhi needs to worry about is the increasing unease among the Bhutanese about being a pawn in the geostrategic game of chess between two big powers—India and China. More than 15 years of controlled democracy (despite an elected Parliament and a cabinet, the Monarchy still has total control over the Kingdom’s security and foreign policies) has given Bhutanese people freedom to question some of the traditional assumptions about the India-Bhutan relationship. Many Bhutanese wonder if the country should continue to depend upon India to guarantee its security or it should see the writing on the wall and settle the boundary question with China independently. The King, as pointed out, so far has absolute say in how Bhutan should deal with India and China but with democracy gradually taking roots in the country, the monarchy will have to take into consideration people’s opinion in the years to come. Keeping in view this possibility, New Delhi and Thimphu are constantly engaged in dialogue at the highest level. The recent trip by three important security managers was in keeping with this thought process, sources pointed out. What eventually happens will depend on many factors in the future but there is no doubt that away from public glare a fascinating geostrategic contest is taking place at India’s doorstep.

Humanitarian Crisis In Madagascar: Will India Extend Its Benign Outreach Across The Indian Ocean?

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StratNews Global;

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Jan 28 2020, 15:34

NEW DELHI: The cyclonic season in southwestern Indian Ocean has been unusually harsh for the island nation of Madagascar where a national emergency has been declared following flash floods and torrential rain. European Commission’s Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations reported on Monday (January 27) that over the past week, heavy rain, strong winds and flooding caused by a tropical storm have affected 116,675 people, with over 16,000 displaced and at least 32 dead in seven regions of northern Madagascar. The full scale of the disaster is still unfolding in one of the world’s better known biodiversity hotspots.

Madagascar, Indian Ocean’s largest island nation, often experiences heavy rain and tropical revolving storms in the cyclone season which could last up to six months. This year, the rain has been particularly severe, washing away roads in the country’s northwest and completely severing the road connectivity to many villages, including the town of Marovoay, with 20,000 inhabitants. The Malagasy government declared a State of Emergency on January 24 and activated the humanitarian response, led by the National Committee for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Boeny, Betsiboka, Sofia and Alaotra Mangoro regions are the worst-hit, according to the Government’s National Disaster and Risk Management Office. Pictures on social media showed President Andry Rajoelina leading the search and rescue efforts organised by the military and appealing for solidarity and national unity in face of the natural disaster. “We need international mobilisation for this major natural disaster”, he Tweeted, in response to a social media post of an international organisation Programme des Nations Unies pour le Developpment a Madagascar, highlighting the serious situation.

Madagascar President Andry Rajoelina leading the search and rescue efforts.

The Malagasy Ministry of Defence has pressed into service numerous military personnel and assets, including rescue boats and some light helicopters. As per reports, the Ministry in charge of Public Works has started repairing damaged roads, reopening the national highways 4 and 6. However, access remains a big challenge, particularly to Alaotra Mangoro Region and other areas isolated by flooding. The government’s resources to provide relief are scarce in this impoverished nation, which has recently acquired a modicum of political stability, after years of unstable governance. At present, a consensus government, led by President Andry Nirina Rajoelina and Prime Minister Christian Louis Ntsay has been in charge since 2018. Madagascar counts among the least developed nations and its institutions remain underdeveloped due to past political instability and corruption.

Madagascar has traditionally received support from the European Union and France, the former colonial power which ruled Madagascar till 1975. However, Madagascar is increasingly looking at other partners for support, including India and China. China has actively courted Madagascar over the past few years, increasing the presence of Chinese companies in mining, lumbering and fisheries businesses. In 2018, India’s President Ram Nath Kovind went on a state visit to Madagascar, which helped strengthen ties. He handed over a cheque for US $2 million to the Madagascar National Office for Management of Risk and Disaster Relief as India’s contribution towards disaster relief. India and Madagascar have also concluded an agreement on defence cooperation, which makes it easier for the two nations to coordinate during major disasters like the present one, when participation of militaries in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief becomes necessary.

If Madagascar seeks India’s assistance, New Delhi could possibly conceive many ways of helping. It could deploy a suitable heavy airlift aircraft of the air force, such as the C 130J, C 17 or the IL 76, with a plane load of relief material to be handed over to Malagasy authorities. It could also despatch Naval and coast guard ships to transport relief material to Madagascar, in a redux of the help rendered to Mozambique, after Cyclone IDAI in March last year. It could also consider flying out a cargo plane of Air India, with special equipment of National Disaster Response Force (NDRF). New Delhi can also explore the possibility of extending medical and veterinary support to prevent epidemics and spread of water-borne diseases. In rural Madagascar, Zebu cattle are the main source of sustenance for communities and mass cattle deaths due to drowning has created a need for addressing the veterinary distress. Clearly, as the worst goes behind, Madagascar will need a variety of assistance from basics such as medicines and clothes, replenishment of foodgrain stocks to reconstruction of schools and houses. India has an opportunity to walk the talk of being the ‘net security provider’ in the Indian Ocean Region by ensuring that its benign outreach extends to Madagascar in its time of need.

The regions affected by the storm that originated in the Mozambique Channel do not have any railway network and connectivity by air is poor. The ports of Mahajanga and Antisiranana offer lifelines of logistical connectivity to the inundated districts, from the sea. The Ivato International Airport near the capital, Antananarivo, offers air connections to many countries in eastern and southern Africa and the Western Indian Ocean.

Madagascar is part of the group called ‘Vanilla Islands’, which have in recent times assumed an important place in Delhi’s visualisation of the Indian Ocean as an inter-connected strategic space. Along with Mauritius, Seychelles, Comoros and Reunion, Madagascar forms the Francophone sub-region of the Indian Ocean, with historical and cultural ties to the Indian sub-continent dating to the colonial period. It helps that Madagascar and India share common membership of the Indian Ocean Regional Association (IORA) and Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS). Antananarivo’s desire to extend a hand of friendship is slowly being noticed in the evolving Indian discourse, which is yet to fully come to terms with expectations of its extended maritime neighbourhood. The humanitarian tragedy in north Madagascar demands that the hand extended across the Indian Ocean is grasped and clasped in a firm grip of reassurance by New Delhi.

China Reports 2,744 Confirmed Cases Of New Coronavirus Pneumonia, 80 Deaths

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Jan 27 2020, 14:15

BEIJING: Chinese health authorities have announced that 2,744 confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), including 461 in critical condition, had been reported in the country by the end of Sunday.

Figures from the National Health Commission showed 769 new confirmed cases, 3,806 new suspected cases and 24 deaths (24 in Hubei) were reported on Sunday.

By the end of Sunday, the pneumonia situation had resulted in 80 deaths, a total of 51 people had recovered and there were currently 5,794 suspected cases.

A total of 32,799 close contacts have been traced, the commission said, adding that among them, 583 were discharged from medical observation on Sunday, with 30,453 others remaining under medical observation.

The figures also showed that 17 confirmed cases had been reported in Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions and Taiwan, with eight in Hong Kong, five in Macao and four in Taiwan.

Overseas, confirmed cases were reported in Thailand (7), Japan (3), the Republic of Korea (3), the United States (3), Vietnam (2), Singapore (4), Malaysia (3), Nepal (1), France (3) and Australia (4).

China has announced the extension of the Spring Festival holiday for three days to Sunday (February 2), amid its efforts to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Universities, primary and secondary schools, and kindergartens across the country shall postpone the start of the semester, said a State Council General Office circular, adding that the specific time for the semester start will be unveiled by respective education authorities.

The measure is taken to help reduce mass gatherings, curb the spread of the novel coronavirus and to better safeguard the safety and health of the Chinese people, according to the circular.

Chinese Footprints In South Asia: Will Nepal Wilt?

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Jan 27 2020, 09:24

Chinese Footprints In South Asia: Will Nepal Wilt? — Prime Minister Oli and President Xi have shaken hands on a deal to implement BRI, now let's see what happens

“Anyone attempting to split China in any part of the country will end in crushed bodies and shattered bones… And any external forces backing such attempts dividing China will be deemed by the Chinese people as pipe-dreaming!”

Who were those remarks of China’s President Xi Jinping during a conversation with Nepal’s Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli in Kathmandu last October aimed at? At the U.S.? Perhaps India, unlikely since Delhi has neither the intention nor the capacity. Or were they meant to pressure Nepal to deliver on an extradition treaty allowing the deportation of Tibetans to China?

The Chinese have never clarified but President Xi’s remarks made it clear that no challenge to the One China policy would be tolerated. And the message to Nepal was that it must keep a tight rein on the 20,000-strong Tibetan community in the country.

One of the reasons for Nepal’s salience in Beijing’s geostrategic matrix is Tibet, which was independent until the Chinese annexed it in 1951. Nepal’s northern border is contiguous with Tibet and therefore the most convenient route for Tibetans seeking sanctuary further beyond in India. Beijing was keen to see the extradition treaty inked as it would’ve allowed the deportation of Tibetans involved in dissident activities in Nepal against China. It would’ve further bolstered Beijing’s campaign to quell the movement for an autonomous Tibet.

Yet, for all the sabre-rattling by President Xi, the first Chinese head of state to visit Nepal in 23 years, Beijing could not get Kathmandu to sign the extradition treaty. Nepal refused, citing its right as a sovereign nation.

Tibet is “the main issue for the Chinese,” according to Prof. Srikant Kondapalli of the Centre for East Asian Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. He noted that signing the extradition treaty “would have created a lot of unrest within Nepal.”

In his view, President Xi’s remarks were unprecedented since “no Chinese leader has made such an undiplomatic comment domestically or abroad”.

The remarks were taken note of by the Indian establishment, which drew some consolation from the fact that Kathmandu refused to sign the extradition pact. Beijing has been doing some effective muscle-flexing with Kathmandu on Tibetans living in Nepal, getting the local authorities to come down heavily on dissident Tibetan activity.

The extradition pact would have helped China. As a senior Indian diplomat explained: “ First, they (China) don’t want Tibetans to be crossing Nepal either to go to India or return to Tibet. Second, the treaty would have enabled Beijing to seek the repatriation of Tibetans crossing over into Nepal.”

He said that the Chinese are “very sensitive” about Tibetan activity within Tibet. “If something happens within Tibet, they seal the borders with Nepal,” he said citing the 2008 riots in Tibet.

While India may feel smug about Xi’s “big failure” in Nepal, it’s well aware that China is making steady inroads into a region once considered within India’s sphere of influence. “China understands the relationship Nepal has with India and it is making increasing inroads in that country,” remarked another Indian diplomat. Among the other reasons why Beijing is seeking to increase its footprints in Nepal is because “it sees the country with the increasing probability of gaining access to the Bay of Bengal,” he added.

Aside from being the first Chinese president to visit Nepal in 23 years, there were other dividends. The bilateral relationship was elevated to a “strategic partnership” (from “comprehensive”), the two sides inked 20 pacts and Xi promised $49 million in development aid over the next two years.

The China-Nepal tango is also visible in the eight joint commissions currently operational, the latest one being on energy. The impetus for this, say Nepal watchers, came after the 2015 economic blockade imposed by India that saw the Himalayan nation suffering from huge fuel shortages.

“The blockade alienated Nepal from India,” said Prof. SD Muni, a former Jawaharlal Nehru University lecturer who is now with the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). According to him, it’s the reason why Nepal “badly needed China to come in to do the balancing act”.

As for the numerous pacts signed during the Chinese President’s visit, Prof. Muni noted: “These are a political statement rather than an economic statement,” hinting that Kathmandu uses China as leverage against Delhi. China is seeking to deepen its influence in Nepal through the Confucius Institutes, 30 of which have come up during the last decade. These institutes are seen as a powerful tool of China’s soft power and are lavishly funded by Beijing ($100,000 annually).

While a suspicious India has chosen to remain out of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), land-locked Nepal, in its efforts to reduce dependence on India for connectivity, has joined BRI despite the fear of falling into a debt-trap. The two countries have agreed to cooperate in building roads, railways, ports and airports, within the “overarching framework of trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network”.

China is assessing the viability of a trans-Himalayan railway which could see link connecting Kathmandu with Xigaze in Tibet and thence onwards to Lhasa through an existing rail link. Beijing has also promised access to its seaports though New Delhi sees this as a “red herring”. “It’s just a gesture. It’s not viable financially. Why would goods from Nepal be transported 3,000 km to Chinese ports when they have access to Kolkata that’s just 800 km away,” asked an Indian diplomat.

While India has stepped up work on connectivity and infrastructure projects in Nepal, its resources are clearly no match for China’s. Criticism is also directed frequently at New Delhi for not delivering projects on time.

Even as China is the biggest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nepal, it is also hedging on spending. According to an Indian official, “China wants to invest in Nepal but when it goes to them with a project proposal, they’re asked to scale down the number of projects.”.

There’s another aspect to the China-funded projects and other initiatives in Nepal— many Chinese companies are on the Nepal government’s watch-list, said the official. For instance, the Nepal Rashtra Bank in May 2019 barred Chinese tourists—nearly 1,00,000 of them visit the Himalayan nation annually—from using Chinese digital wallets Alipay and WeChatPay, to make payments as these were being used in an “illegal manner”.

So is Nepal increasingly tilting towards China? “Not yet,” was the response of a diplomat who’s been keenly watching the trajectory of China-Nepal in recent years. “Basically, they’re seeking to build influence and see if they can make Nepal tilt more towards China.”

Prof. Muni summed it up: “The Chinese are far more interested in coming into Nepal than the Nepalese are in getting the Chinese into their own country, therefore the push from Beijing is far greater.” Either way, New Delhi knows it can no longer bank on the traditional “roti-beti ka rishta” to keep its ties with Kathmandu on an even keel.

New Foreign Secretary Set To Take Charge; Expect A Shake-Up

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StratNews Global;

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Jan 27 2020, 09:13

NEW DELHI: The external affairs ministry is all set to get a new captain of the ship with Harsh Vardhan Shringla taking over as foreign secretary on January 29, so expect some important announcements in the coming days regarding transfers and postings of diplomats. Many senior officers have been awaiting new assignments but had to wait for Shringla’s return to South Block so he could vet them.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, a former foreign secretary, will have a say in some key postings. For instance, India’s ambassador to the U.S., where Shringla was ambassador for about a year. Current high commissioner to Sri Lanka Taranjit Singh Sandhu is said to be the frontrunner for the Washington job.

Will the government go ahead with Sandhu or prefer a political appointee? Shringla and Jaishankar, also a former envoy to the U.S., will put their heads together on this. Whoever
wears the hat in Washington will have to hit the ground running as U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to visit India in late February. Besides, the new envoy will need to ensure a bipartisan
outreach in an election year in the U.S.

Another important slot, the one in Colombo when Sandhu moves out, is expected to be filled by Gopal Baglay, a joint secretary in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) since July 2017. With his departure, the PMO slot for a senior IFS officer will need to be filled.

Baglay was MEA spokesperson for a few months till he was picked for the PMO. He has some neighbourhood experience as well, having been deputy high commissioner in Pakistan. He will have his hands full as New Delhi is keen on ramping up ties with the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government to limit Beijing’s influence.

Then there’s Singapore, with incumbent Jawed Ashraf moving to France as ambassador. Considered one of the sharpest minds in the foreign service, it will probably be Ashraf’s final posting before retirement.

The high profile post of the MEA spokesperson will also be up for grabs in a few months, with incumbent Raveesh Kumar completing his tenure. He could be headed for Austria; the ambassador’s post there having fallen vacant after Renu Pall completed her tenure.

The spokesperson’s appointment is one where the minister invariably has a say. Not only is he/she the ministry’s face, holding forth on a wide variety of foreign policy issues but the
spokesperson is also present during important bilateral meetings of the PM and the EAM.

Renu Pall has been appointed additional secretary NEST (New, Emerging and Strategic Technologies), a freshly minted MEA division said to be Jaishankar’s brainchild. The division will be looking at new technologies like 5G and the worldwide technology trade.

With India-Pakistan relations in limbo, Ajay Bisaria who is high commissioner in Islamabad but has been in New Delhi ever since ties were downgraded, is headed for Ottawa as high commissioner to Canada.

Anupam Ray, presently consul general in Texas who played a key role in organising the ‘Howdy Modi’ event in Houston is also back in Delhi awaiting a posting.

Two crucial MEA divisions—Americas and PAI (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran)—are also expected to get new joint secretaries in the next few months with the officers heading them, Gourangalal Das and Dr Deepak Mittal, respectively, due for postings. Dr Mittal has been handling the challenging PAI division since February 2017.

The new foreign secretary will also have to decide on a name for the coveted posting of high commissioner to the UK, with current envoy Ruchi Ghanshyam set to retire in April. Yet another crucial slot that will be need to be filled is India’s Permanent Representative at the UN. Syed Akbaruddin who’s deftly handled the job since January 2016 also retires in April.

The ambassadorial post in Ankara will need to be filled as India’s envoy there until recently, Sanjay Bhattacharyya, is back in New Delhi and has taken over as the secretary, CPV and OIA (consular, passport and visa division and overseas Indian affairs). The envoy in Turkey will need to put in tremendous effort into getting New Delhi-Ankara ties back on track. Bilateral relations took a nose-dive after Turkish president Recep Erdogan backed Pakistan on Kashmir at the UN General Assembly session last year.

Another ambassadorial slot that will fall vacant soon is in Prague, with current envoy Narinder Chauhan headed for retirement. The Indian ambassador in Portugal, K. Nandini Singla will be completing her tenure soon, having been appointed to the post in March 2016.

First Street Fashion Show Held In Kabul

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Jan 26 2020, 10:57

KABUL: Afghan male and female youths modelled on Thursday in the first street fashion show in Kabul, and another show is planned for Herat province in the upcoming month to promote Afghan culture.

Previous fashion shows were held indoors, not with public access.

Ajmal Haqiqi, who headed up the show, said that they will hold similar shows in other provinces to promote Afghani culture.

“This is cultural work, and has a peace message and has an intimacy message,” said Haqiqi.

The youth wore various outfits and walked on a red carpet to represent different customs and traditions of every province of the county.

30 men, including five women, were models, and they also said that will hold similar shows in other provinces also.

“We have fear in our heart, but we want the government to allow us to do our work independently,” said Yalda Jamalzada, a female model.

Many people gathered to watch the show, and a child also participated as a model.

The security situation is not good, but the modellers said they have accept the threats in order to bring change.

(By arrangement with Tolo News)

‘India Yet To Realise It’s Dealing With A New Nepal’

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Jan 26 2020, 10:01

YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: India and Nepal may share strong historical, cultural and religious links but India needs to look beyond these if it wants to be in sync with a new Nepal. This advice comes from Nepal’s Sujeev Shakya who describes himself as a thought leader and speaker. Shakya is also an author, having written two books—‘Unleashing Nepal’ and more recently ‘Unleashing the Vajra’ which looks at his country’s journey between India and China. Shakya who is also the Chair of the Nepal Economic Forum, a non-profit engaged in economic policy and research, tells StratNews Global Deputy Editor Parul Chandra in this interview that India needs to reach out to young Nepalese who do not have the same connect with Nepal’s next door neighbour as the older generation. Shakya says he’d like to see more Nepalese and Indian youth engage with each other while noting rather bluntly: “The Nepal-India relationship has been hijacked by the retirees club”. Shakya who has been closely following the trajectory of New Delhi-Kathmandu ties also says that the 2015 economic blockade ‘imposed’ by India led to an entire generation of Nepalese being alienated from India. As for China’s increasing footprints in his country, Shakya says there is a perception among the Nepalese that the northern neighbour is always willing to help. Beijing’s soft power initiatives in Nepal too have helped win the Nepalese over, he notes.

A Proposal Of Himalayan Heights!

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StratNews Global;

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Jan 26 2020, 09:25

Blistering barnacles! Or, should we say ‘Thundering typhoons’! The offer made by Nepal to play mediator between India and Pakistan makes one remember Captain Haddock’s exclamations in the comic-book series Tintin. The offer of mediation on Kashmir and terrorism was made by Nepalese “sources” during a briefing on Saturday to a group of visiting Indian journalists in Kathmandu. While Nepal’s push for the revival of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is understandable, its offer of mediation has left most flummoxed. Why would New Delhi agree to Kathmandu being the interlocutor, asked an Indian diplomat especially when India has always maintained that Kashmir is a bilateral issue, Kathmandu’s homily to New Delhi during the briefing was to say that dialogue was the best way forward (India and Pakistan have not been on talking terms for a long time now). Is the mediation offer indicative of Kathmandu’s desperate efforts to see SAARCs revival so that it can get rid of its chairmanship, a role it has had for the last six years?

Brazil, India Deepen Strategic Partnership, Ink 15 Pacts On Eve Of Republic Day

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Jan 25 2020, 19:56

NEW DELHI: Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro kickstarted his India visit, his first visit as a head of state to the country, by signing 15 economic pacts with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

On the anvil for some time, these pacts – especially the much sought after Investment Cooperation and Facilitation Treaty (ICFT) which encourages investors in both countries by assuring non-discrimination in all investment matters – could boost two-way investment. The other key areas that the two countries will focus on is in Agriculture, Bio-Fuels, Animal Husbandry, Health and S&T. On trade, the two countries have agreed to set a target of $15 billion in bilateral trade for 2020. It currently stands at a little over $8 billion.

Earlier in the day, President Bolsonaro who is the Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day parade, was accorded a ceremonial welcome by Prime Minister Modi and President Ram Nath Kovind. Bolsonaro is accompanied by a high-level business delegation, which while gratifying for India could be more to do with the Brazilian leader’s need to tell his people he is pushing hard on the economic front.

Elected on the hopes that he would deliver on reforms, President Bolsonaro has so far been heavily criticised at home for rising unemployment and falling economic growth which saw the government cut its projections for 2020 from 2.6 per cent to 2.2 per cent. Thus, it was no wonder that after the pacts were signed the Brazilian president tweeted in Portuguese, “The world’s confidence in Brazil is back.”

Economic matters aside, there were other issues of concern that bound India and Brazil together on the world stage. As Prime Minister Modi stated in his welcome speech to the Brazilian president, the two countries perspectives on current global challenges remained similar.

“Our partnership, particularly in BRICS and IBSA, is an important aspect of India’s foreign policy. Today, we have decided that both countries will further strengthen their cooperation on multilateral issues. And we will continue to work together for necessary reforms in the Security Council, United Nations and other international organisations,” the prime minister said.

Brazil and India have had strong ties especially when former president Lula da Silva was in power. Under his presidency, India and Brazil elevated ties to a Strategic Partnership in 2006 and with President Bolsonaro at the helm it seems likely that the goodwill will continue with some experts believing that talks on an FTA to replace the present Preferential Trade Agreement (that India currently has with the MERCOSUR countries) may follow.

Oil is another area and with the turmoil gripping West Asia, Brazil, as a leading oil producer – it is currently believed to be in talks to join OPEC – may be another alternative for India to consider.

Former diplomat and Latin American expert Deepak Bhojwani summed up the relationship between the countries when he said, “The relationship is thriving, and I am sure President Bolsonaro wants to open up the economy further. Apart from India, he is going to the EU and East Asian countries to finalise trade and economic agreements. I see no negative signs coming from him.”

It’s also important to understand that Brazil is more heavily invested in the US, China and Europe. The outreach to India is a strategic move no doubt with the future in mind.

Indian Ocean: Why India Is Looking West

By

Nitin A. Gokhale;

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Jan 25 2020, 10:33

YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: From the eastern shores of Africa till the United States in the far east—this geographical expanse now comes under the ambit of Indo-Pacific, as India sees it. It’s not just the area that has undergone a sea change, according to the Indian construct. The focus too is seeing a shift. On ‘Simply Nitin’, our editor-in-chief decodes why India is looking west when it comes to the Indian Ocean.

From Myanmar To Pakistan, China’s Ambitious Gamble

By

Surya Gangadharan;

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Jan 25 2020, 10:08

NEW DELHI: Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Myanmar last week has left more questions than answers. StratNews Global learns that only two agreements were signed and these were about shoring up the existing agreement on Kyuakhphyu deep-sea port in Rakhine state and the feasibility study of a railway line from Yunnan to Mandalay (feasibility because of terrain and the risks involved in building a railway through insurgent infested forests). It’s not clear where that leaves media reports about China funding a special economic zone and a spanking new city opposite Yangon.

It begs another question: Why would the president of China come all the way for two agreements? It would appear that President Xi was boosting Aung San Suu Kyi’s morale. The Nobel Prize winner and State Counsellor has been on the back foot internationally for defending her army’s conduct in Rakhine state, refuting charges of genocide against the Rohingya in the international court.

This visit also confirms a view that the Chinese president sees Suu Kyi and the army as partners and allies they can do business with. Even if there were limited gains from this visit, it leaves the door open for potentially more business down the road in the form of the China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC).

CMEC is about all the projects mentioned above and perhaps more that are not yet known. The buzz is President Xi offered to open the purse strings for as many projects as Myanmar wanted (including obviously some of interest to Beijing) but the Myanmarese leadership preferred to go slow.

The sense in India is that with CMEC in the east and CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) on the west, Beijing is making no secret of its determination to reduce the risks posed to its energy supplies transiting the Malacca Straits chokehold. Opening up new routes to the Indian Ocean is the BRI, which is basically about building infrastructure to serve China’s strategic purposes and is, therefore, a handy instrument. BRI will also help build Beijing’s political influence in the countries where it is implemented, a point which India’s foreign policy brass is cognizant of. They also know India cannot compete with China’s deep pockets and must therefore play to its strengths, which means focusing on smaller projects that cost less, are viable and make a difference to people’s lives.

It is the military impact of what China is attempting which is interesting. A Chinese presence in Kyuakhphyu port in Rakhine state on the Bay of Bengal may at some point lead to Chinese military or naval personnel being stationed there. Don’t forget, China is the main supplier of military hardware and training for the sanctions-hit Myanmar military. India is trying hard to keep up, recently transferring an old Kilo-class submarine to the Myanmar Navy. But there’s only so much India can do given its own capacity constraints. Nevertheless, senior naval officers StratNews Global spoke to said they were not overly concerned about Chinese military presence in the Bay of Bengal. As one of them said, “We can bottle them up given that we have a string of naval establishments all along India’s east coast including Vizag, which is bang in the Bay of Bengal. Add to that the resources we can mobilise from our base in the Andaman Islands.”

The same would apply in the event the Chinese are able to persuade Thailand to approve the building of a canal through the Isthmus of Kra. Any such canal would open into the Andaman Sea, where again India can mobilise the resources of its Andaman Nicobar command. Nor does a Chinese naval presence in Hambantota, Sri Lanka, present any great dilemma for India. In case of hostilities, Chinese ships would be highly vulnerable, given their proximity to the Indian mainland.

The problem, Indian naval officers admit, is Gwadar in Pakistan. Unlike the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea is an open body of water making it difficult to monitor. Gwadar itself is strategically positioned in the northern Arabian Sea, near the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz. India does have a naval deployment in the strait to escort its oil tankers, and has naval facilities in Duqm Port in Oman, directly across from Gwadar. But the Indian Navy may have to contend with the Chinese and Pakistani navies operating jointly.

Indian Navy sources acknowledged capacity constraints. It currently deploys 140 ships with no less than 50 at the end of their service lives. The retirement of these ships is being put off and their operational deployment extended until their replacements arrive (incidentally 48 of these 50 ships are being built in India, two are being built in Russia). Maritime air surveillance using P8I aircraft is also being stepped up.

The Indian Navy is also tying up with other friendly navies with stakes in the Indian Ocean. France is an obvious partner, Indonesia another, so are Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Through joint, bilateral and multilateral exercises, coordinated patrols, disaster relief drills and so on, India is hoping to manage the gap in its deployment with friendly navies pitching in. By 2027 the navy’s deficiency is expected to be filled when it will be able to deploy 175 surface ships, 20 submarines and 500 aircraft (against 230 now).

Until then, India will have to keep up its guard on the CMEC front while ensuring that capacity constraints do not limit its operational capabilities off CPEC waters.

First Kalapani, Now Palm Oil

By

StratNews Global;

-

Jan 25 2020, 09:00

The festering territorial claim over Kalapani, a small enclave at the trijunction of India, Nepal and China which Kathmandu claims and India holds has become the latest irritant in bilateral ties. “If India can resolve the land boundary issue with Bangladesh, why not Nepal?” Nepalese Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali said during an interaction with journalists in Kathmandu on Friday. Nepal has been pushing for a meeting at the foreign secretary level with India but in vain.

Yet another issue that could blow up is India’s decision to restrict import of refined palm oil which was meant to target Malaysia but has affected Nepal as well. Nepal is not a producer but a processor of palm oil and Indian traders make use of the free trade between the two neighbours to import the commodity at much lower customs duties. Nepal has formally raised the issue with India’s commerce ministry. And the Himalayan nation still hasn’t forgotten the 2015 blockade it had blamed on India.

Can Nepal’s ‘Sagarmatha’ Dialogue Help Revive SAARC?

By

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Jan 24 2020, 21:07

NEW DELHI: Far fetched it may appear but given the frosty state of bilateral relations will Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Pakistani counterpart Imran Khan meet three months from now? Or will they choose to ignore each other even if they share the stage at the inaugural ‘Sagarmatha Sambaad’ (Mt Everest Dialogue) to be hosted by Nepal in April.

The tantalising possibility of a Modi-Khan meeting arose when Nepal’s Foreign Minister Pradeep Kumar Gyawali told journalists in Kathmandu on Friday that his country will invite leaders of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) for the ‘sambaad’ to be held from April 2 to 4. It will be a biennial event, a multi-stakeholder dialogue forum that will deliberate on the most prominent issues of global, regional and national significance. The theme of the inaugural dialogue is ‘Climate Change, Mountains and the Future of Humanity’.

But the announcement of the ‘sambaad’ was only a teaser. Gyawali said Nepal was keen on handing over the SAARC chairmanship to Pakistan, something it has been unable to do with the eight member sub-regional grouping moribund since late 2016. A SAARC summit scheduled to be held in Islamabad in November 2016 was cancelled following an India-led boycott after the terror strike on an army camp in Uri.

It’s the stalled SAARC process which appears to bother Nepal the most. Kathmandu has held the SAARC chair since hosting the summit in 2014. “Nepal is ready and in a hurry to hand over the chairmanship of SAARC,” Gyawali said. “We have been carrying this baggage for the last four years and we want to have a SAARC summit at the earliest.”

Earlier, Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has more than once said the sub-regional group needs to be revived and made effective.

Prof. Mahendra P. Lama, who is with the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, when asked about Nepal’s push for SAARC’s revival, told StratNews Global: “As per the SAARC mandate, no bilateral contentious issues are to be discussed. The issues between India and Pakistan are bilateral in nature.”

Prof Lama, who is also a member of the Eminent Persons Group (EPG) on India-Nepal relations, said that the onus of handing over the baton is with Nepal but it finds itself in a situation where a SAARC summit is nowhere on the horizon, so the chairmanship cannot be handed over.

Stating that Nepal’s position on SAARC is right, Prof Lama said the possibility of Indian and Pak PM’s meeting during the ‘sambaad’ cannot be discounted. Noting that New Delhi also plans to invite Khan for the heads of government summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in New Delhi later this year, Prof. Lama said: “It means that India is keeping its options open with regard to Pakistan.”

While India has a range of options bilaterally vis a vis Pakistan, SAARC is on the back burner because of Islamabad constantly raising bilateral issues. There is, therefore, little appetite in Delhi’s South Block to restore a platform that Pakistan will twist for its own purposes. Whether Nepal likes it or not, it will remain SAARC chairman for the foreseeable future.

Measles Outbreak Fear: India’s Shot In The Arm For The Maldives

By

Amitabh P. Revi;

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Jan 24 2020, 17:06

NEW DELHI: With the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak fuelling global fears and following a deadly outbreak of measles since October in Pacific countries and the Democratic Republic of Congo, India has quietly butspeedily acted on an emergency request from the Maldives. 30,000 doses of the Measles/Rubella vaccine were obtained from the Serum Institute, Pune and handed over to the Maldives within 72 hours of the request. The Maldivian government had also approached Denmark, which said it would take a month. Even the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) said it would take it four weeks to provide the vaccines.

Indian envoy Sunjay Sudhir (right) with Maldives’ Health Minister Abdullah Ameen.

In June 2017, The World Health Organisation (WHO) verified the Maldives as having eliminated measles. Though there has been no indigenous case of measles since 2009, the government suspects an outbreak after four positive cases were reported last week. Pacific countries like Samoa, which has a population of about 200,000, is recovering from a measles outbreak since October 2019, which killed 83 people, mostly babies.

Earlier this month, the WHO said over 6,000 people had been killed in the Democratic Republic of Congo which declared an epidemic in June last year. The US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) also published a Level 1 Travel Alert on January 3 saying: “Measles outbreaks are occurring around the world. Before you travel internationally, regardless of where you are going, make sure you are protected fully against measles”.

In November last year, the Maldivian Parliament passed a new child protection law, which among other things makes it illegal for parents to not vaccinate their children on religious or other grounds.

Measles vaccines sent by India to the Maldives.

Dr Ahmed Faisal, a child specialist at the Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital in the Malé has been warning of the danger of an outbreak since early January and urging people to get vaccinated. After India’s quick intervention, Maldives Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid tweeted “Thank the Government of India and Ambassador Sunjay Sudhir for the swift response to the Maldives’ request for measles vaccination by delivering it in under 72 hours.”

Maldivian Health Minister Abdullah Ameen acknowledges India’s donation of 30,000 measles vaccines.

India has been the first responder to emergencies in the Maldives for over three decades. In 2015, India airlifted water and sent a Reverse Osmosis plant and other supplies by ship in response to a water crisis in Malé. Immediate assistance was rushed after the 2004 tsunami. New Delhi also foiled an attempted coup in 1988 by sending paratroopers in response to a SOS from then President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.

Coronavirus Outbreak Not A Global Health Emergency Yet: WHO Chief

By

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Jan 24 2020, 13:09

GENEVA: The World Health Organization (WHO) on Thursday said it was too early to declare the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in China a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), while warning that the number of cases may rise as much about the virus remains unknown.

“I am not declaring a public health emergency of international concern today. As it was yesterday, the Emergency Committee was divided over whether the outbreak of novel coronavirus represents a PHEIC or not,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a press conference after a closed-door meeting of the committee.

“Make no mistake, though, this is an emergency in China. But it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one,” Tedros said, adding that WHO’s risk assessment is that the outbreak is a very high risk in China and a high risk regionally and globally.

Medical staff of Union Hospital affiliated to Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology attend a ceremony to form an “assault team” against the pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. (Photo: Xinhua/Cheng Min)

“I wish to reiterate that the fact I am not declaring a PHEIC today should not be taken as a sign that WHO does not think the situation is serious, or that we are not taking it seriously,” said the chief of the global public health watchdog.

The UN health agency extended its Emergency Committee discussions on whether to declare a PHEIC from Wednesday to Thursday. The PHEIC is defined as an extraordinary event that is determined to constitute a public health risk to other states through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response.

Tedros said that 584 cases had been reported to WHO, including 17 deaths. A total of 575 of those cases and all of the deaths have been reported in China, with others in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, the United States and Vietnam.

Tedros said China has taken measures it believes to be appropriate to contain the spread of coronavirus in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where the first and most cases were reported, and other cities, and WHO hopes that they will be both effective and short in their duration.

The WHO chief thanked the Chinese government for its cooperation and transparency. The Chinese government has been successful in isolating and sequencing the virus very quickly and it has shared the virus’s genetic sequence with the WHO and the international community.

For the moment, WHO does not recommend any broader restrictions on travel or trade. It recommends exit screening at airports as part of containment measures. All countries should have in place measures to detect cases, including at health facilities, Tedros said.

“It is too early to consider this event is a public health emergency of international concern,” said Didier Houssin, chair of the Emergency Committee and an adviser to France’s national health security agency.

According to Houssin, the WHO received from health authorities in China very precise information about the evolution of the epidemic. The WHO had learned that the public transport suspension in Wuhan and some neighboring cities was not directly related to a specific evolution of the epidemic.

Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program, told reporters that compared to past incidents, one of the important advantages right now in dealing with the novel coronavirus is that people know the virus and have diagnosed it.

Tedros told reporters that the virus causes milder symptoms for most people and a quarter of patients have developed severe disease. There is human-to-human transmission in China but for now it appears limited to family groups and health workers caring for infected patients, he said.

“The disadvantage is the unknowns, in not fully understanding the disease, the severity and the transmission,” said Ryan.

According to Tedros, the source of the coronavirus, how it spreads and its clinical features or severity are among the unknowns. “It is likely that we will see more cases in other parts of China and other countries,” he said.

A thermal detector at Hankou Railway Station in Wuhan, China. (Photo: Xinhua/Xiao Yijiu)

Ryan said the death toll may rise while noting the situation may develop in another way: more mild cases detected with the fatality rate down. “We need to focus on early diagnostics, early support of care, intensive care where need it.” Ryan said that the detailed information provided by China frankly has enabled the WHO to construct the epidemic curve and track on a daily basis. “We are very grateful for that,” he added. At this point, the outbreak is still evolving. “We are not at the position to say the epidemic’s peak,” said the expert.

The WHO Emergency Committee called for support for ongoing efforts to investigate the animal source of the outbreak and the extent of human-to-human transmission, the screening efforts in other provinces of China and the enhancement of surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections in these regions, saying containment and mitigation measures should also be reinforced.

In a statement issued after its meeting, the committee also expressed the hope that China will continue to share information and collaborate with WHO and partners to investigate the epidemiology and evolution of the coronavirus outbreak.

It said exit screening is needed at international airports and ports in the affected Chinese provinces and at domestic airports, railway stations and long-distance bus stations.

Meanwhile, the committee urged all countries to be prepared for containment, with measures including active surveillance, early detection, isolation and case management, contact tracing and prevention of the onward spread of the infection, and to share full data with WHO.

Countries should emphasise the reduction of human infection and prevent secondary transmission and international spread, said the statement.

Only The Second Time

By

StratNews Global;

-

Jan 24 2020, 12:16

So long, farewell to retiring Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale who heads off into the Pune sunset at the end of his diplomatic innings. Incidentally, he was Secretary, Economic Relations, in Delhi when picked for the top job, which is not the norm. Generally, foreign secretaries have moved into South Block from some foreign capital, as Harsh Shringla is doing. In recent memory, the only other diplomat who rose to foreign secretary while in Delhi was Kanwal Sibal, known as tough and no-nonsense, which is probably why he didn’t get the extension he deserved.

India Seeks Greater Maritime Cooperation With Sri Lanka In Indian Ocean Region

By

StratNews Global;

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Jan 24 2020, 10:42

NEW DELHI: In the latest move to ramp up its strategic imprint in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and to counter Beijing’s power play, New Delhi has reached out to Colombo for stepping up maritime cooperation. The outreach to the new Gotabaya Rajapaksa-led Sri Lankan government was done during the visit of India’s National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval to Colombo last weekend.

During the Doval-Gotabaya meeting, the two leaders are learnt to have agreed to step up maritime surveillance. The NSA also assured $50 million to Sri Lanka for purchase of security equipment.

In recent years, New Delhi has been seeking to counter the Chinese challenge posed by what is described as the ‘string of pearls’ construct to encircle India in the IOR by boosting its linkages with countries in the region. China is building roads, railways and other infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka and its control of Hambantota port has caused consternation in New Delhi.

Last month, India’s Navy chief Admiral Karambir Singh said there were six to seven Chinese warships in the IOR at any given time, while confirming that Indian warships had driven away a Chinese oceanographic research vessel indulging in suspicious activity near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Earlier this month, China held a joint naval exercise with Pakistan in the northern Arabian Sea where it deployed submarines as it regularly does in the IOR on the pretext of anti-piracy patrols.

The New Delhi-Beijing duel to outwit each other in the IOR has seen the pendulum swing from one end to the other. While in 2014, Sri Lanka permitted a Chinese submarine and warship to dock at the Colombo port to India’s great discomfiture, three years later Colombo refused the Chinese permission to dock a submarine at the same port.

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