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No Good Cop, Bad Cop On China Debt Trap: Maldives Foreign Minister

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NEW DELHI: Maldives Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid reviews 14 months of President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s government and how relations with India have been restored across the board. In this interview with StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P Revi, Shahid answers questions on China’s debt, India’s $1.4 billion assistance, whether there are two voices within his party on Beijing’s debt ‘trap’, how China is dealing with his government and New Delhi’s security, defence and development assistance. The Foreign Minister reiterates ex-President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom (now jailed for corruption) and his policy of playing China and India landed the Maldives in a mess. Shahid also speaks about extremism and Maldivians joining the ‘Islamic State’ terrorist group in Syria and how fundamentalism is being dealt with domestically and internationally, fugitive Indian preacher Zakir Naik, new joint projects in Addu, Indian tourist numbers growing by 105 per centand the near completion of the Coastal Surveillance Radar System. India training athletes including cricketers and sports diplomacy are also discussed.


The Global South: How India’s Pitching An Alternate Development Model

NEW DELHI: Bad news early in the new year. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has set up a panel to probe the U.S. complaint against India levying customs duty on 28 American goods, ranging from almonds and chickpeas to iron and steel products, bolts and rivets.

The irony is inescapable. The same U.S. has blocked all moves to nominate judges to the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Mechanism. Three judges are required to give rulings, only one remains. It’s hard to see how the mechanism can give any ruling in the current situation.

Indian diplomats say the mess in the WTO mirrors a larger U.S.-created disruption in the international system, which includes the trade war with China, the struggle for technological dominance and Washington blowing hot and cold in the world’s strategic hotspots (read Afghanistan to the Persian Gulf).

The disruption in turn has accelerated the worldwide trend towards a more realistic approach to problems, said a senior Indian official, and this is more pronounced in Asia, because of China, than perhaps elsewhere. This presents its own issues for India, which is acknowledged to be on a “power trajectory of its own”.

Yet this power trajectory is being increasingly challenged by China, both in India’s South Asia backyard, in the Indian Ocean and in other parts of Asia and Africa. However, Indian diplomats believe this country, with far fewer resources than China, has been able to offer a cooperative and sustainable model of security and development that is winning a wider audience.

For one, India has been able to emerge as a net security provider or facilitator in the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific. Security not only in terms of being able to offer capacity building but also training and some equipment to select neighbours and friends including the small Persian Gulf sheikhdoms. More important, the Indian Navy’s ability to provide disaster relief from Sri Lanka to Indonesia and Mozambique has made it a welcome partner in these countries.

Second, India’s low-key, consultative approach to building infrastructure connectivity in this region and in Africa is seen as a credible alternative to China’s usual gargantuan projects. It has not missed anyone’s notice that the Jaffna Regional Airport in Sri Lanka is being upgraded to take international flights for a modest $4 million donated by India. Contrast this with the empty concourse of Mattala International Airport which cost more than $200 million in Chinese loans to build and hardly sees any traffic.

In Cambodia, India has concentrated on small projects that directly benefit communities. These projects could be bridges, village schools, clinics that don’t cost much to build but go a long way towards building perception among people. The projects are affordable, sustainable and do not burden the host country with heavy debts.

Third, India sees itself as a member and a voice of the Global South. Many projects are conceptualized with that in mind, such as the International Solar Alliance. Then there’s Prime Minister Modi’s ambitious plan for a global electricity grid that leverages solar power generated in one geography to feed electricity demands elsewhere. Consultations with the World Bank as technical partner have begun. The bank is expected to come up with a report in due course.

The plan springs from India supplying power to Nepal and Bangladesh. The latter is already pushing for power from large solar parks coming up in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Officials say it is only a question of transmission, so eventually power could also be supplied to Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.

Fourth, and perhaps the most crucial, is the technology position India adopts. Technology today is the force driving the world and the choices India makes will be closely watched. Some of the questions here are how India localizes technology and how it will be expanded and spread. What will India’s approach to artificial intelligence and robotics, also data protection be and will it be it shared by all?

Technology is the key to every sector, from climate change to connectivity. These are questions that India needs to think through if its power trajectory is to reflect its larger concerns about the South and its role as a member of the South.

Chinese Footprints In South Asia: Bid To Sway Nepal’s Domestic Politics

NEW DELHI: In September last year, barely three weeks before the bilateral visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Nepal, cadres of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) participated in a training programme conducted by members of the Communist Party of China (CPC). It wasn’t just any training programme but one focused on the rather ponderously titled ‘Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in a New Era.’

On the face of it, the programme in which a 50-member CPC team participated seemed rather innocuous with the tagline ‘Nepal-China Friendship Symposium’. But the actual intent of the programme—to ‘educate’ the Nepalese Communists on President Xi’s political doctrine which was unveiled during the CCP’s 19th Party Congress in 2017 and included in its Constitution—did not escape notice.

At the end of the two-day event, an MoU enabling the sharing of visits between members of the two parties and the sharing of Communist ideology among other things had been signed.

The NCP’s decision to take part in such a programme, which it described as an “ideological dialogue”, drew flak. Among those who slammed the NCP were leaders of the Nepali Congress with some saying that the Chinese system lacked what the Himalayan nation has—democracy, federalism, pluralism, etc.

But the Opposition’s criticism came with a delicious sense of irony. For it’s not just the Communists but other political parties in Nepal that have been playing footsie with the CCP in recent years. And this has not gone unnoticed by either the Indian government or strategic analysts, as they watch China’s expanding footprints not only in terms of building physical infrastructure in Nepal but in the intangible yet influential world of politics too.

As India’s former foreign secretary Shyam Saran said in his keynote address at a conference on ‘Chinese Public Diplomacy in South Asia and Central Asia’ in New Delhi last month: “In our own region of South Asia, I see that China is much more active than before in terms of intervening in domestic politics.”

Citing Nepal’s example, Saran said China’s “cultivation of individual politicians and its financing of various political parties… reaching out to the political elite, making it worth their while to support China’s objectives, this is something new…”

In recent years, land-locked and impoverished Nepal has been at the centre of an increasing tussle between India and China for influence. Nestled between the two Asian giants, the Himalayan nation which India once considered its backyard is being assiduously wooed by China. The political arena is where Beijing continues to make insidious inroads and this has not gone unnoticed in New Delhi.

As a senior Indian diplomat conceded: “There is increasing Chinese involvement in Nepal’s politics.” Yet, the diplomat also said that the commonly held belief that Nepalese Maoists have close links with the CCP is not well-founded. “They do have party to party links but the CCP did not support the Maoist insurgency in Nepal,” he remarked.

A report titled ‘Silk Road Diplomacy: Deconstructing Beijing’s toolkit to influence South and Central Asia’ released at the same conference, noted: “Beijing is still most comfortable and prolific in cultivating relationships with political elites; however, it is becoming more sophisticated in its efforts to win over the broader Nepali public.”

Beijing’s push for greater influence in Nepal by providing Kathmandu the big bucks for huge infrastructure projects and by way of economic assistance has had New Delhi scrambling to deliver on these fronts too. Nepal expert Prof S.D. Muni who taught at the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) for many years and is now an Executive Council member of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) said: “The Chinese are interested in wooing Nepal by putting in money. They’re buying Nepalese goodwill.”

In the same vein, Prof Muni observed: “The Chinese are involved in a big way in the domestic politics of Nepal.” Hinting at what led to the victory of the Left in Nepal’s 2017 elections, Prof Muni noted: “The unity of the UML and the Maoists was funded and encouraged by the Chinese.” Current Nepalese Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli who led the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) or UML and former Premier Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ who led the CPN-Maoist Center, now co-chair the NCP.

Political leaders from the Terai region, Nepali Congress, UML and Maoists are taken on trips to China, said Prof Muni, hinting that the Chinese inflate the budgetary provisions for a project (in Nepal) and the extra money is “used for political corruption and regime change”.

PM Oli himself is known for his proximity to the Chinese and has not hesitated in playing the China card against India. He’s possibly still bristling after the 2015 economic blockade, for which he had accused India, during his previous tenure as PM, when New Delhi put its weight behind the Madhesi stir. A trust deficit ensued and while ties are back on even keel now, China’s rapid push in Nepali politics continues unabated.

Here’s how things have been unfolding as per the ‘Silk Road Diplomacy’ report. “There were 114 recorded political visits between Chinese and Nepali leaders and 15 party-to-party visits, the most of any SCA (South and Central Asia countries studied for this report) country, in the 2000-2017 period. What is an even more pertinent indicator of the closer clinch between Beijing and Nepali parties, however is this observation based on interviews done for the report wherein it said that Beijing’s “approach has evolved from an initial focus on Leftist party leaders to a branching out to building relationships with parties across Nepal’s political spectrum”.

China has hosted almost all of the top leaders in Nepal’s Communist party hierarchy, says the report. But leaders from the Opposition Congress too have been Beijing’s guests. The outreach has also been extended to include provincial leaders who have been flown to Beijing as guests of the Chinese government.

The basic aim of this outreach to Nepal’s political parties, according to the senior Indian diplomat, is “to build influence and to see if they can make Nepal tilt more towards China than India.” To a question on whether Beijing has succeeded in its endeavour, he replied, “Not yet”. But that day may not be too far.

New Generation Of Tibetans As Determined As The Earlier Ones, Affirms Dalai Lama

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BODH GAYA: His Holiness Dalai Lama speaks frankly on the future of Tibet, possibility of his reincarnation and being the ‘longest staying’ guest of India. In conversation with our Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale.


Oman Gets New Monarch But Foreign Policy Status Quo May Continue

NEW DELHI: NEW DELHI: Going by the standards of Arab monarchies, the political transition in Oman upon the death of Sultan Qaboos bin Said was smooth as silk. His cousin Haitham bin Tariq al-Said was sworn in as the new sultan. Indian diplomats who have served in Oman and the region say they expect it will be business as usual with the new sultan at least in the near term.

Sultan Haitham is not an unknown quantity. He was part of the late sultan’s ruling cabal and involved or in the know of day to day decisions including those of foreign policy. He is expected to continue the strategic outreach to India visible in the berthing facilities for the Indian Navy at Duqm port in the northern Indian Ocean, an Indian signals intelligence facility, regular drills with the Indian navy and air force and training of Omani naval personnel in India.

India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar was on the phone with Oman’s Foreign Minister Yusuf Alawi shortly after the U.S. killed Iran’s Quds Force Commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Both countries agree on the need for restraint by all sides at this critical juncture and both have been able to reach out to Tehran with that message.

Oman is a major player in the region, sitting on the Straits of Hormuz with Iran directly across. Although a Sunni state, Oman has steered clear of the Sunni-Shia sectarian games being played out, preferring to be on good terms with both the Saudis and Iran. The new sultan may not, therefore, lack friends in the region who wish Oman well.

If China Chooses My Successor, Tibetans Won’t Accept: Dalai Lama

BODH GAYA: The next Dalai Lama if chosen by the Chinese will not be acceptable to the Tibetan community. This assertion has come from the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, whose advancing years have led to considerable speculation about his successor in recent years.

The Dalai Lama’s comments, though not made for the first time, will rile the Chinese authorities who have in the past made it clear that they would like to choose the 15th Dalai Lama. Further, Beijing has also accused the present Dalai Lama, now living in exile in India for over 60 years, of carrying out anti-China activities in the garb of religion.

But sharp attacks by Beijing have left the octogenarian unfazed. The Tibetan leader in a wide-ranging interview to this correspondent also referred to the Panchen Lama, considered the second most important leader in Tibetan Buddhism who has now been missing for a quarter of a century. And how he almost joined the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), so impressed was he with Marxism and chairman Mao when he met him in 1954 in Beijing.

Referring to how he had chosen a six-year-old boy as the Panchen Lama in a traditional way, the Dalai Lama said the Chinese have installed their own Panchen Lama, one in whom Tibetans have little faith.

Beijing’s keenness to choose the 14th Dalai Lama’s successor is seen as a Chinese strategem to exercise control over Tibetan Buddhism and thus greater control over Tibet, a region China occupied in 1950.

The Tibetan spiritual leader also didn’t mince words when it came to the Chinese occupation of Tibet. “Physically, the Chinese have occupied Tibet but at the mental level they can never control us… The Chinese control Tibet through weapons, we influence their minds. Our influence is stronger than their weapons,” said the Dalai Lama.

He also took a swipe at the lack of democracy in China while noting that he himself had relinquished his political role. He did so in 2011 when Dr Lobsang Sangay was sworn in as the head of the Tibetan government in exile. He noted that “modern times call for a democratically elected political leadership so I’ve already sort of retired and we’ve achieved, at least within our within our refugee community an elected political leadership.”

For good measure he laughingly added, “If the Chinese allow, but then the Chinese won’t allow… their own leader is not through free elections,” referring to the utter impossibility of a democratic election in either Tibet or China.

Continuing in the same vein, the Dalai Lama said, “As far as democratic practices are concerned, we a handful of Tibetans are more advanced as we have a freely elected political leadership. China has a totalitarian system.”

To a pointed question on whether his reincarnation will be decided by the Chinese or as per his own teachings, the Dalai Lama said, “I’m a Buddhist monk and I practise Buddhism. I never contended that I’m the Dalai Lama… I am 100 per cent sure that in my next life I will be able to be useful to the community. That’s my wish. I don’t care for the institution.”

As for the notion in certain quarters that the younger generation of Tibetans is not as committed to the Tibet cause, the Dalai Lama said this wasn’t the case. “Tibetan determination is very firm. The new generation’s determination is as strong as that of the previous generations,” he asserted.

While there have been no formal meetings between the Dalai Lama and the Chinese government in recent years, the Tibetan leader said that Chinese officials still meet him He further said that there is realisation within the top echelons of the Chinese government that their Tibet policy over the last nearly seven deacdes is “unrealistic”. He added, “They’ve tried to follow a more realistic approach towards Tibet.”

Noting that Tibetans developed direct contact with the Chinese government in 1979, the Dalai Lama revealed that Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru had advised him that the U.S. would not fight with China to liberate Tibet. He told the Dalai Lama, “Sooner or later, you will have to deal with the Chinese directly.” Describing his advice as being “very practical”, the Tibetan leader said that Pandit Nehru also felt that the decision to raise the Tibet issue at the UN was not very useful. “Then, in 1974, we decided not to raise the Tibetan issue at the UN. We tried to have direct contact with the Chinese government in case of a possibility. In 1974, we decided not to seek independence and adopt the middle way—meaningful autonomy.”

Amid reports of how the Chinese are systematically destroying Tibetan culture and language, the Dalai Lama said, “There are nearly two million Tibetans in the autonomous region. We should have the right to preserve our culture, including our language. The most important of all—Tibetan knowledge which originally came from Nalanda.”

In what appeared a swipe at the Chinese government’s repressive ways in Tibet, the Dalai Lama said, “They’re eager for my return. I tell them I’m willing to visit China and meet the Chinese Buddhists and scholars. But as for my return, I tell them it’s too early for me to decide. I love India’s freedom and have enjoyed it for over 60 years.”

Declaring that he was the “longest staying guest of the Indian government,” the Dalai Lama who fled to India in 1959 from Tibet when asked if he ever felt let down by the country said, “No, never.”

Transcript:

Q: Thank you very much for your time, His Holiness. It’s a privilege and an honour and always good to come and listen to you and your wisdom. You’ve spread compassion and oneness in the world for so long. Do you think the world needs more of it from people?

A: Certainly. You see, never ask what is your faith? What is your nationality? Children, as humans, brothers-sisters relate together. So that’s the beginning of our life. Then I think the problem is existing education. There is too much emphasis on differences—nationality, religious faith and, in this country, different castes. So that’s the source of problem. Actually, we are human beings, part of the human community of seven billion. One human community, we have to live side by side. Different faith, different nationality is secondary. Therefore, in education you should pay more attention to what is basic human value or India’s tradition—‘ahimsa’ (non-violence) and ‘karuna’ (compassion). When we talk about ‘karuna’, it’s not only (towards) human beings but also animals. Don’t harm and have a more compassionate attitude towards animals and also respect the environment, don’t destroy it. India’s over thousand 3000-year-old ‘ahimsa’ and ‘karuna’ that is (needed) at the individual level in order to be a happy human being; and at the global level, in order to have a happy humanity and a peaceful world, these things are very relevant. All the emphasis is on differences.

Q: But you have spread compassion for so long now, six decades, 61 years in India. And do you think this institution of Dalai Lama needs to be perpetuated, needs to continue in the coming decades also?

A: I think 1969, I expressed whether this institution of Dalai Lama should continue or not to Tibetan people and now I can say to Tibetan and Himalayan people and (people of) Mongolia, the institution at one period it developed and at one period it will go. (The institution of Dalai Lama) not important, important is knowledge. In our case, the knowledge of Buddhism in general and particularly Nalanda tradition, Sanskrit tradition, that is very scientific. I always tell people we can make distinction. In Nalanda tradition, there is a lot of explanation about human psychology, human mind and philosophy. Like quantum physics, very clear in Sanskrit tradition. And then logic. So, analyze everything, analyze, not just faith and easily accept, no. Buddha himself is telling us you should not accept my teaching out of faith or devotion but rather thorough investigation and experiment. So that is a very scientific. So, now the knowledge, Buddha Dharma, we can continue. So, that is important, the institution including Dalai Lama institution relates with individual, not important. I do not think very important about Buddha Dharma, no. In case 15th Dalai Lama comes, who is a very naughty person then there is no use. Now, I think last 13th Dalai Lama somehow quite naughty.

Q: But you yourself have a streak of happiness and you’re always smiling. That’s the thing that people are looking forward to but so when people say that there could be a reincarnation and how does reincarnation work? Do you think that the reincarnation should be with the Chinese people or do you think the reincarnation will happen automatically, according to your teachings?

A: Like the first Dalai Lama, when he became old, he occasionally expressed it. Then some of his disciples, great scholars, they expressed to him: you already have certain sort of clear indication you go to heaven, Sukhawadi. Then he answered, I have no desire to be born Sukhawadi, my desire is to be born in an area where there is more suffering so I can use something to serve the concerned people. That was his wish. In my own case, I’m a Buddhist monk, Buddhist practitioner. I have the name of the Dalai Lama but I consider I’m a simple Buddhist monk. And daily basis practice. So my sort of determination, my prayer, there was sort of prayer mentioned. So long as space remains, I will remain in order to serve. That is also determination, I practise that. So, therefore, I am 100 per cent sure that in my next life I can be useful to the community. That’s my wish. I don’t care about this institution. All those Nalanda masters, no one had an institution. So institution has some connection with political matter. Since 2001, I totally retired from political responsibility. And I also made clear, I decided that in future, in case there is a Dalai Lama, (they will have) no political power. We must have democratically elected political leadership. So I already sort of retired and we have already achieved at least among refugee community, we have elected political leadership. So, in the future if Chinese allow, Chinese don’t, their own leader also (hasn’t been chosen) not through free election. And I think as far as democratic practice is concerned, we are more advanced, we have a freely elected leader, political leadership. China has a totalitarian system. Therefore, I’m not much concerned about the institution of the Dalai Lama.

Q: But when the Chinese say that we will choose the next Dalai Lama, what is your reaction to that?

A: Panchen Lama. I recognized one boy through traditional way, investigation. And then Chinese officials recognised another Panchen Lama. But among Chinese, they usually describe him as a false Panchen Lama or fake, among Chinese themselves. And Tibetans do not have much of a faith (in him). So in case the Dalai Lama institution remains and the next (15th) Dalai Lama is decided by the Chinese, then Tibetans will not believe that.

Q: Exactly, they do not accept the Chinese choice. But coming to the Chinese dealings with you and the way they describe you sometimes they describe you as a separatist, a splittist. And you’ve been hearing this for a long time. But do you think there is any chance, first of all do you desire to ever go back to Potala Palace or to Lhasa?

A: Since 1979, we developed direct contact with the Chinese government. That also, Pandit Nehru advised me. America will not fight with China, with Chinese in order to liberate Tibet, he told me. Yes. Sooner or later you have to deal with China, Chinese directly. Very practical. So then, in early 50s, or no early 60s when we raised the Tibetan issue at the UN for a few years Pandit Nehru said that won’t be much useful. Then in 1974 we decided not to raise the Tibetan issue at the UN, we tried direct contact with the Chinese government in case there’s some possibility. So, in 1974 we decided not to seek separation, independence. We did not accept the existing political situation. Then, meaningful autonomy. And that also not only about 2 million Tibetans in the autonomous region, but those areas the Chinese constitution recognised as Tibetan areas. Now, all together the population was around six to seven million. In Chinese constitution is it provided that all these areas be considered Tibetan areas. So, autonomous region, autonomous district, autonomous procedure. So, we should have, since the constitution recognises, as a Tibetan group, the same right to preserve our own culture, our own language. And then most important is Tibetan knowledge that originally came from Nalanda. I think the marvellous knowledge of Nalanda like psychology, philosophy, quantum physics, all these academic subjects these days are made for distinction, religion and academics. There is a certain style of Buddhist practice. In the eighth century, the Tibetan emperor invited the top master of Nalanda to Tibet. Then the eighth century Chinese Emperor was determined, as far as Buddhism is concerned not through Chinese language but directly from Nalanda. So when Nalanda Master Santarakshita reached Tibet, he advised the Tibetan king, since you have your own script, instead of studying Sanskrit, Pali, you should translate it into Tibetan. So then the translation started. Eventually, 300 volumes. These are the sources of Buddhist knowledge. Buddhist population in China a few years ago, I think three years ago, one Chinese University in Peking survey said over 300 million. Since then, there has been a rapid increase year by year in Buddhist population. Today in China the Buddhist population I think is around 600 million. China is a Buddhist country; Buddhism was brought to China by one Chinese scholar. He came to India and joined Nalanda and studied and some historian say he even met the top student, scholar student of Nagarjuna, Naga Bodhi, his top sort of disciple, great scholar. So, Chinese monk Xuanzang, when he came to Nalanda, that top scholar was very old but still there. So, he met and he received some teaching. So, Tibetan Buddhism as I mentioned earlier 8th century Nalanda master introduced. The Chinese Buddhists also use Xuanzang who studied in Nalanda, so same source. Today many Chinese follow Tibetan Buddhism and whenever sort of opportunity comes, Chinese from Mainland China come to see them. So therefore, now regarding political matter, among the top leader in Chinese they have already developed some kind of awareness, in the past over 60-70 years their policies regarding Tibet were unrealistic. Now, they are thinking seriously, trying to follow a more realistic approach about Tibet. So therefore, now since last few years, as I mentioned earlier 1979, so since then how continuously for official or formal sort of delegation I went there and now individually some Chinese officials also come here, meet me. They are very much eager about my return. I always keep telling them I’m very much willing to visit China and meet those Chinese Buddhists, Buddhists and also some scholars but about my return it’s too early to decide. I love India’s freedom and have enjoyed it for over 60 years now. As a result, I keep meeting with different people. And today one of my old friends, a Chinese, told me to visit China. Very important, but the permanent residence must be India. That person used to express to me, the Dalai Lama’s big name you see created by Westerners, so I must go to Western countries.

Q: I believe you used to know Xi Jinping, his father in the 1950s How was it, I mean how did you know him?

A: When in 1954 I went to China, I developed very good relation, personally relation, with Mao Zedong and I really admire him as a revolutionary and Marxist, wonderful. On the last day, I was to leave the next day from Peking, Mao Zedong called me. The official farewell was already sort of done but all of a sudden I received one message from Mao Zedong’s office. Mao Zedong was waiting there to meet me and I went. I was in a meeting when all of a sudden, one messenger came and said Mao Zedong was waiting to see me. I went and he was waiting there; he gave me very useful advice: after return to Tibet how to develop relation with the public and listen to public’s views. Also he told me then that he wanted to keep me to keep contact with him directly. And then he mentioned to me: your mind is very scientific; religion is opium. And that shows sort of my intelligence that he felt I’m non believer. I deceived him. So he told me you are very scientific-minded; religion is poison. At that moment, I l was shocked and then in order to hide my face I looked down at my notebook and made notes in order to hide my expression. At that time, I was really very much impressed about Marxism. So I expressed I want to join Chinese Communist Party in 1954-55. The Chinese officials concerned said no hurry, no hurry. After I came to India, I met Jyoti Basu, Indian communist, on a few occasions. Marxism dedicated to socialism and equal distribution and the emphasis on right of working class people, so that’s right. Not only in India but everywhere there is a huge gap between the rich and the poor, that’s the source of suffering.

Q: So what would you advocate for India? You have lived here; you’ve taught here

A: Now, when we came to India, crossed the Indian border at Taiwan, we felt India was our spiritual home. We always look at India as a sacred land, ‘Arya bhoomi’. In a way, we are refugees in our sacred country where all our knowledge comes from. So we are very happy to be here. Then, I’m the longest guest of Indian government.

Q: They don’t mind. I’m sure that nobody minds in India that you are here. We really love you and we revere you when you’re here but you are not a guest.

A: Sometimes I express to Indian officials that if some day the government of India says I am no longer guest of the government, I have to think whether I should go. I now have four commitments. Number one commitment. I’m one of the 7 billion human beings. Human beings by nature, scientists say, are social animals. Basic human nature is to be more compassionate. And having a more compassionate mind makes physical condition better; constant anger and hatred is very bad for the immune system, the scientists say. So my number one commitment is to try to promote basic human values, compassion. Again, according to Indian tradition in a secular way mainly based on science. That’s my number one commitment. I think a number of my friends in different countries are now really showing some interest about basic human values. Then, my second commitment is religious harmony. Now I am fully convinced that religious harmony is possible. Look at India, all major religions live together with mutual respect, wonderful. The world needs that Indian tradition, religious harmony. When I saw a TV Shia and Sunni, unfortunately in Burma, Buddhist vs Islam, very sad. All religion carry the message of love. That tradition itself now causing division, very sad. So we need special effort to promote this harmony. India is example. So that’s my number two commitment. Number three commitment regarding Tibet. Now my main concern is Tibetan environment. High altitude, dry climate, some Indian friends say under such sort of conditions, the damage to environment and revival because of high altitude and dry climate take longer time. So, ecology in such condition is quite delicate, so we should pay more attention to preserve ecology and the environment. And then Tibetan knowledge, as I already mentioned, all Indian ancient Nalanda knowledge we kept. Now the whole world, I think the Nalanda knowledge is available only among Tibetan tradition. Burma, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia. And China, as I meant earlier, is Nalanda tradition, but communist country. And then Mongolia also difficult. So Tibet, actually see, we also lost our country. But a handful of Tibetan here, we kept the Nalanda tradition intact. We studied Nalanda tradition, psychology, and philosophy and so on at least for 20-30 years and we have still kept these traditions. That I feel is very important. Although we Tibetans carry these things, the subjects have great potential to bring peace among humanity in a secular way. Then my fourth commitment: I feel India is the only nation that can combine modern education and ancient Indian knowledge—how to sort of keep peace of mind through the practice of ahimsa and karuna. Over 3000 years, this country developed the practice of Samatha, practice of Vivasana, Sandhya philosophy, Sandhya tradition and then Jain-Buddhist tradition, on the basis of ahimsa and karuna. These are Indian traditions. Now, India should combine modern education and ancient Indian knowledge. Modern education brings material development; ancient Indian knowledge brings inner peace. So India has great potential to offer to the world how to get peace of mind. In order to do that, firstly within India should sort of start through education, not through prayer, not through ritual but through education, the combination of modern and ancient Indian knowledge. So, my fourth commitment is revival of ancient Indian knowledge through education.

Q: That’s a very big commitment and I think you will be able to lead that. But as somebody who’s respected the world over, how do you see the next generation of Tibetans taking forward the struggle for more autonomy?

A: Tibetan determination is very firm. Generations have passed since the 1950s but the new generation, their determination is as strong as the previous generation, very strong. So at the physical level Chinese occupied but Tibetan spirit at the mental level, they never controlled. So, the Tibetan spirit—combination of Buddhism, Buddha Dharma, Nalanda tradition—is very strong. Now, China, the invader, they themselves— more and more in number—follow Tibetan traditions. So, the Chinese controlled Tibet by weapon, we influence their mind. So in the long run, our influence is stronger than their weapon. That’s quite clear. Absolutely, 100 per cent. In the early 1970s, we decided not to seek separation but remain within People’s Republic of China. As Pandit Nehru’s advice, that’s a realistic approach. Not only that, I think it’s of immense help to Chinese Buddhists.

Q: So one final question. I know your time is very precious and I’m grateful for your time but India has been your home for 61 years now. What advice would you give to Indians and the Indian government?

A: India is the most populated democratic country, wonderful. And a prime minister mentioned at the UN, India is the land of Buddha. In education India should revive the ancient teachings. In the past, we reconsidered Indians as our guru, our teacher. We considered ourselves chela (disciple). I usually describe we are reliable chela because we kept all ancient Indian knowledge. So that’s sufficient to prove we are reliable chela. Traditionally, you are our guru but now you have modernized. You lost this knowledge. So now in reality, the traditional chela has now become guru, traditional guru has now become the new chela. So that’s my commitment, India must secularly revive ancient Indian knowledge, how to keep peace of mind.

Q: So do you ever feel let down by India, have you ever felt disappointed?

A: No, no, never. I think now, perhaps I think frankly speaking, Dalai Lama become more popular in the whole world. So India also needs that person.

Q: That’s true. Thank you very much. Thank you for your time and your blessings. Thank you.

‘Region Wants India To Play A More Proactive Role In Resolving US-Iran Conflict’

YouTube Video

NEW DELHI: Iran’s admission that it accidentally shot down the Ukranian airliner raises various domestic issues for Tehran. It will also occasion some cheer in Washington. But Dr Waiel Awwad, senior Syrian journalist and West Asia expert based in New Delhi, believes that Iran with its array of proxy forces retains a very strong hand in the region, and the last word is yet to be said on the killing of Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani. In a conversation with Surya Gangadharan, Editor of StratNews Global and Opinion Editor Ashwin Ahmad, Dr Awwad acknowledges the proactive roles played by Russia and China but wonders why India, with its huge stakes in the region, prefers to make only anodyne statements. India’s soft power, he believes, is widespread in the region, it has credibility, its motives will not be misunderstood and the time for action is now.


China Has Physically Occupied Tibet But It Can Never Control Our Mind: Dalai Lama

His Holiness Dalai Lama speaks frankly on the future of Tibet, the possibility of his reincarnation and being the ‘longest staying’ guest of India. In conversation with our Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale.

 

 

Transcript:

Q: Thank you very much for your time, His Holiness. It’s a privilege and an honour and always good to come and listen to you and your wisdom. You’ve spread compassion and oneness in the world for so long. Do you think the world needs more of it from people?

A: Certainly. You see, never ask what is your faith? What is your nationality? Children, as humans, brothers-sisters relate together. So that’s the beginning of our life. Then I think the problem is existing education. There is too much emphasis on differences—nationality, religious faith and, in this country, different castes. So that’s the source of problem. Actually, we are human beings, part of the human community of seven billion. One human community, we have to live side by side. Different faith, different nationality is secondary. Therefore, in education you should pay more attention to what is basic human value or India’s tradition—‘ahimsa’ (non-violence) and ‘karuna’ (compassion). When we talk about ‘karuna’, it’s not only (towards) human beings but also animals. Don’t harm and have a more compassionate attitude towards animals and also respect the environment, don’t destroy it. India’s over thousand 3000-year-old ‘ahimsa’ and ‘karuna’ that is (needed) at the individual level in order to be a happy human being; and at the global level, in order to have a happy humanity and a peaceful world, these things are very relevant. All the emphasis is on differences.

Q: But you have spread compassion for so long now, six decades, 61 years in India. And do you think this institution of Dalai Lama needs to be perpetuated, needs to continue in the coming decades also?

A: I think 1969, I expressed whether this institution of Dalai Lama should continue or not to Tibetan people and now I can say to Tibetan and Himalayan people and (people of) Mongolia, the institution at one period it developed and at one period it will go. (The institution of Dalai Lama) not important, important is knowledge. In our case, the knowledge of Buddhism in general and particularly Nalanda tradition, Sanskrit tradition, that is very scientific. I always tell people we can make distinction. In Nalanda tradition, there is a lot of explanation about human psychology, human mind and philosophy. Like quantum physics, very clear in Sanskrit tradition. And then logic. So, analyze everything, analyze, not just faith and easily accept, no. Buddha himself is telling us you should not accept my teaching out of faith or devotion but rather thorough investigation and experiment. So that is a very scientific. So, now the knowledge, Buddha Dharma, we can continue. So, that is important, the institution including Dalai Lama institution relates with individual, not important. I do not think very important about Buddha Dharma, no. In case 15th Dalai Lama comes, who is a very naughty person then there is no use. Now, I think last 13th Dalai Lama somehow quite naughty.

Q: But you yourself have a streak of happiness and you’re always smiling. That’s the thing that people are looking forward to but so when people say that there could be a reincarnation and how does reincarnation work? Do you think that the reincarnation should be with the Chinese people or do you think the reincarnation will happen automatically, according to your teachings?

A: Like the first Dalai Lama, when he became old, he occasionally expressed it. Then some of his disciples, great scholars, they expressed to him: you already have certain sort of clear indication you go to heaven, Sukhawadi. Then he answered, I have no desire to be born Sukhawadi, my desire is to be born in an area where there is more suffering so I can use something to serve the concerned people. That was his wish. In my own case, I’m a Buddhist monk, Buddhist practitioner. I have the name of the Dalai Lama but I consider I’m a simple Buddhist monk. And daily basis practice. So my sort of determination, my prayer, there was sort of prayer mentioned. So long as space remains, I will remain in order to serve. That is also determination, I practise that. So, therefore, I am 100 per cent sure that in my next life I can be useful to the community. That’s my wish. I don’t care about this institution. All those Nalanda masters, no one had an institution. So institution has some connection with political matter. Since 2001, I totally retired from political responsibility. And I also made clear, I decided that in future, in case there is a Dalai Lama, (they will have) no political power. We must have democratically elected political leadership. So I already sort of retired and we have already achieved at least among refugee community, we have elected political leadership. So, in the future if Chinese allow, Chinese don’t, their own leader also (hasn’t been chosen) not through free election. And I think as far as democratic practice is concerned, we are more advanced, we have a freely elected leader, political leadership. China has a totalitarian system. Therefore, I’m not much concerned about the institution of the Dalai Lama.

Q: But when the Chinese say that we will choose the next Dalai Lama, what is your reaction to that?

A: Panchen Lama. I recognized one boy through traditional way, investigation. And then Chinese officials recognised another Panchen Lama. But among Chinese, they usually describe him as a false Panchen Lama or fake, among Chinese themselves. And Tibetans do not have much of a faith (in him). So in case the Dalai Lama institution remains and the next (15th) Dalai Lama is decided by the Chinese, then Tibetans will not believe that.

Q: Exactly, they do not accept the Chinese choice. But coming to the Chinese dealings with you and the way they describe you sometimes they describe you as a separatist, a splittist. And you’ve been hearing this for a long time. But do you think there is any chance, first of all do you desire to ever go back to Potala Palace or to Lhasa?

A: Since 1979, we developed direct contact with the Chinese government. That also, Pandit Nehru advised me. America will not fight with China, with Chinese in order to liberate Tibet, he told me. Yes. Sooner or later you have to deal with China, Chinese directly. Very practical. So then, in early 50s, or no early 60s when we raised the Tibetan issue at the UN for a few years Pandit Nehru said that won’t be much useful. Then in 1974 we decided not to raise the Tibetan issue at the UN, we tried direct contact with the Chinese government in case there’s some possibility. So, in 1974 we decided not to seek separation, independence. We did not accept the existing political situation. Then, meaningful autonomy. And that also not only about 2 million Tibetans in the autonomous region, but those areas the Chinese constitution recognised as Tibetan areas. Now, all together the population was around six to seven million. In Chinese constitution is it provided that all these areas be considered Tibetan areas. So, autonomous region, autonomous district, autonomous procedure. So, we should have, since the constitution recognises, as a Tibetan group, the same right to preserve our own culture, our own language. And then most important is Tibetan knowledge that originally came from Nalanda. I think the marvellous knowledge of Nalanda like psychology, philosophy, quantum physics, all these academic subjects these days are made for distinction, religion and academics. There is a certain style of Buddhist practice. In the eighth century, the Tibetan emperor invited the top master of Nalanda to Tibet. Then the eighth century Chinese Emperor was determined, as far as Buddhism is concerned not through Chinese language but directly from Nalanda. So when Nalanda Master Santarakshita reached Tibet, he advised the Tibetan king, since you have your own script, instead of studying Sanskrit, Pali, you should translate it into Tibetan. So then the translation started. Eventually, 300 volumes. These are the sources of Buddhist knowledge. Buddhist population in China a few years ago, I think three years ago, one Chinese University in Peking survey said over 300 million. Since then, there has been a rapid increase year by year in Buddhist population. Today in China the Buddhist population I think is around 600 million. China is a Buddhist country; Buddhism was brought to China by one Chinese scholar. He came to India and joined Nalanda and studied and some historian say he even met the top student, scholar student of Nagarjuna, Naga Bodhi, his top sort of disciple, great scholar. So, Chinese monk Xuanzang, when he came to Nalanda, that top scholar was very old but still there. So, he met and he received some teaching. So, Tibetan Buddhism as I mentioned earlier 8th century Nalanda master introduced. The Chinese Buddhists also use Xuanzang who studied in Nalanda, so same source. Today many Chinese follow Tibetan Buddhism and whenever sort of opportunity comes, Chinese from Mainland China come to see them. So therefore, now regarding political matter, among the top leader in Chinese they have already developed some kind of awareness, in the past over 60-70 years their policies regarding Tibet were unrealistic. Now, they are thinking seriously, trying to follow a more realistic approach about Tibet. So therefore, now since last few years, as I mentioned earlier 1979, so since then how continuously for official or formal sort of delegation I went there and now individually some Chinese officials also come here, meet me. They are very much eager about my return. I always keep telling them I’m very much willing to visit China and meet those Chinese Buddhists, Buddhists and also some scholars but about my return it’s too early to decide. I love India’s freedom and have enjoyed it for over 60 years now. As a result, I keep meeting with different people. And today one of my old friends, a Chinese, told me to visit China. Very important, but the permanent residence must be India. That person used to express to me, the Dalai Lama’s big name you see created by Westerners, so I must go to Western countries.

Q: I believe you used to know Xi Jinping, his father in the 1950s How was it, I mean how did you know him?

A: When in 1954 I went to China, I developed very good relation, personally relation, with Mao Zedong and I really admire him as a revolutionary and Marxist, wonderful. On the last day, I was to leave the next day from Peking, Mao Zedong called me. The official farewell was already sort of done but all of a sudden I received one message from Mao Zedong’s office. Mao Zedong was waiting there to meet me and I went. I was in a meeting when all of a sudden, one messenger came and said Mao Zedong was waiting to see me. I went and he was waiting there; he gave me very useful advice: after return to Tibet how to develop relation with the public and listen to public’s views. Also he told me then that he wanted to keep me to keep contact with him directly. And then he mentioned to me: your mind is very scientific; religion is opium. And that shows sort of my intelligence that he felt I’m non believer. I deceived him. So he told me you are very scientific-minded; religion is poison. At that moment, I l was shocked and then in order to hide my face I looked down at my notebook and made notes in order to hide my expression. At that time, I was really very much impressed about Marxism. So I expressed I want to join Chinese Communist Party in 1954-55. The Chinese officials concerned said no hurry, no hurry. After I came to India, I met Jyoti Basu, Indian communist, on a few occasions. Marxism dedicated to socialism and equal distribution and the emphasis on right of working class people, so that’s right. Not only in India but everywhere there is a huge gap between the rich and the poor, that’s the source of suffering.

Q: So what would you advocate for India? You have lived here; you’ve taught here

A: Now, when we came to India, crossed the Indian border at Taiwan, we felt India was our spiritual home. We always look at India as a sacred land, ‘Arya bhoomi’. In a way, we are refugees in our sacred country where all our knowledge comes from. So we are very happy to be here. Then, I’m the longest guest of Indian government.

Q: They don’t mind. I’m sure that nobody minds in India that you are here. We really love you and we revere you when you’re here but you are not a guest.

A: Sometimes I express to Indian officials that if some day the government of India says I am no longer guest of the government, I have to think whether I should go. I now have four commitments. Number one commitment. I’m one of the 7 billion human beings. Human beings by nature, scientists say, are social animals. Basic human nature is to be more compassionate. And having a more compassionate mind makes physical condition better; constant anger and hatred is very bad for the immune system, the scientists say. So my number one commitment is to try to promote basic human values, compassion. Again, according to Indian tradition in a secular way mainly based on science. That’s my number one commitment. I think a number of my friends in different countries are now really showing some interest about basic human values. Then, my second commitment is religious harmony. Now I am fully convinced that religious harmony is possible. Look at India, all major religions live together with mutual respect, wonderful. The world needs that Indian tradition, religious harmony. When I saw a TV Shia and Sunni, unfortunately in Burma, Buddhist vs Islam, very sad. All religion carry the message of love. That tradition itself now causing division, very sad. So we need special effort to promote this harmony. India is example. So that’s my number two commitment. Number three commitment regarding Tibet. Now my main concern is Tibetan environment. High altitude, dry climate, some Indian friends say under such sort of conditions, the damage to environment and revival because of high altitude and dry climate take longer time. So, ecology in such condition is quite delicate, so we should pay more attention to preserve ecology and the environment. And then Tibetan knowledge, as I already mentioned, all Indian ancient Nalanda knowledge we kept. Now the whole world, I think the Nalanda knowledge is available only among Tibetan tradition. Burma, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia. And China, as I meant earlier, is Nalanda tradition, but communist country. And then Mongolia also difficult. So Tibet, actually see, we also lost our country. But a handful of Tibetan here, we kept the Nalanda tradition intact. We studied Nalanda tradition, psychology, and philosophy and so on at least for 20-30 years and we have still kept these traditions. That I feel is very important. Although we Tibetans carry these things, the subjects have great potential to bring peace among humanity in a secular way. Then my fourth commitment: I feel India is the only nation that can combine modern education and ancient Indian knowledge—how to sort of keep peace of mind through the practice of ahimsa and karuna. Over 3000 years, this country developed the practice of Samatha, practice of Vivasana, Sandhya philosophy, Sandhya tradition and then Jain-Buddhist tradition, on the basis of ahimsa and karuna. These are Indian traditions. Now, India should combine modern education and ancient Indian knowledge. Modern education brings material development; ancient Indian knowledge brings inner peace. So India has great potential to offer to the world how to get peace of mind. In order to do that, firstly within India should sort of start through education, not through prayer, not through ritual but through education, the combination of modern and ancient Indian knowledge. So, my fourth commitment is revival of ancient Indian knowledge through education.

Q: That’s a very big commitment and I think you will be able to lead that. But as somebody who’s respected the world over, how do you see the next generation of Tibetans taking forward the struggle for more autonomy?

A: Tibetan determination is very firm. Generations have passed since the 1950s but the new generation, their determination is as strong as the previous generation, very strong. So at the physical level Chinese occupied but Tibetan spirit at the mental level, they never controlled. So, the Tibetan spirit—combination of Buddhism, Buddha Dharma, Nalanda tradition—is very strong. Now, China, the invader, they themselves— more and more in number—follow Tibetan traditions. So, the Chinese controlled Tibet by weapon, we influence their mind. So in the long run, our influence is stronger than their weapon. That’s quite clear. Absolutely, 100 per cent. In the early 1970s, we decided not to seek separation but remain within People’s Republic of China. As Pandit Nehru’s advice, that’s a realistic approach. Not only that, I think it’s of immense help to Chinese Buddhists.

Q: So one final question. I know your time is very precious and I’m grateful for your time but India has been your home for 61 years now. What advice would you give to Indians and the Indian government?

A: India is the most populated democratic country, wonderful. And a prime minister mentioned at the UN, India is the land of Buddha. In education India should revive the ancient teachings. In the past, we reconsidered Indians as our guru, our teacher. We considered ourselves chela (disciple). I usually describe we are reliable chela because we kept all ancient Indian knowledge. So that’s sufficient to prove we are reliable chela. Traditionally, you are our guru but now you have modernized. You lost this knowledge. So now in reality, the traditional chela has now become guru, traditional guru has now become the new chela. So that’s my commitment, India must secularly revive ancient Indian knowledge, how to keep peace of mind.

Q: So do you ever feel let down by India, have you ever felt disappointed?

A: No, no, never. I think now, perhaps I think frankly speaking, Dalai Lama become more popular in the whole world. So India also needs that person.

Q: That’s true. Thank you very much. Thank you for your time and your blessings. Thank you.

 

 

 

 

Expect No Big Change In India-China Ties This Year. Here’s Why

NEW DELHI: The killing of Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani by the U.S. has opened an interesting question. How long would it take China to muscle that kind of hard power to carry out an operation of a similar kind? Some would say at least a decade, others even longer.

The point is that kind of impunity takes time to manifest itself and the U.S. has been at it for the last 50 years at least. It draws from Washington’s superpower status, its hi-tech military and gargantuan economy that facilitate its contempt for international law.

There can be little doubt that China is working assiduously towards that end, drawing together diverse elements of its national power with the single purpose of beating the U.S. at its own game. It would prefer not to take on the U.S. directly but will have no compunction in threatening and intimidating smaller countries or buying their top leaders to get its way.

War is something Beijing would avoid. War is not good for business, more so for an export-oriented economy like China’s. Any decision to go to war will therefore be carefully weighed, the consequences thought through including the certainty of victory (or the risk of defeat).

But one point is clear. China will use its power differential wherever it can, whenever it can. So for India-China relations, 2020 maybe no different from 2019 or 2018, which is what a section of the establishment in Delhi believes. There will be a lot of talk at various fora, pull-asides at multilateral events, even some tactical collaboration on climate change and the annual one-on-one optics between Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping will continue.

But it doesn’t change how the Mandarins see India. China will lose no opportunity to diplomatically attack and seek to undermine or isolate India. They see this country as economically weak and politically divided, yet it also has the potential to emerge a challenger to China in the years ahead.

Therefore, if they perceive a chink in the armour (perhaps Kashmir), they will try and exploit. They will try and use their economic clout to influence key domestic decisions such as on 5G and divert or put off discussion on India’s demand for greater access to the Chinese economy.

China watchers in Delhi say they expect no movement on settling the border dispute because India will not succumb to China exerting its power differential to secure a deal on its terms. Beijing has done this with each of its neighbours, including Russia.

At the regional level, China will continue to encourage and arm Pakistan as a rival to India and intensify their strategic inroads into this neighbourhood. Internationally, they will continue to block India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group and use the Belt & Road Initiative as a strategic tool to build economic influence and political power.

India has no pressure points it can apply against China—that is the frank admission in a section of the establishment in Delhi. India can pinprick, irritate and annoy but little beyond that.

Strictly speaking, India is not a priority for China (although the trade surplus is quite agreeable) but Delhi’s refusal to join the RCEP would have disappointed Beijing, maybe even confirmed hardline views of this country.

To repeat, India-China relations in 2020 may be little different from 2019. Hopefully, the two countries will not slide into another Doklam-like confrontation but given the opaque working of the Chinese leadership, there is no telling whether internal pulls and pressures in Beijing trigger something on the remote Himalayan frontiers with India.

PM’s Military Plainspeak

Prime Minister Narendra Modi surprised even the most cynical national security analyst by not just appointing a Chief of Defence Staff end of last year but going a step further by creating a Department of Military Affairs (DMA) under the Ministry of Defence to coordinate and integrate the three armed forces to improve their combat efficiency and optimise resources.
At a dinner he hosted for the military top brass on 31st December, the Prime Minister was blunt in his message to the uniformed leadership: Prepare the forces for future combat and reduce the obsession over ‘ceremonials, pomp and pageantry.’ According to multiple attendees at the dinner, the Prime Minister  exhorted the brass to make sure that the military reduces wastage, avoids duplication in acquisitions and makes the forces technologically dependent rather than be manpower-intensive, wherever possible. The time has come, he told four- and three stars, to fully transform the military now that it has got an opportunity to largely control its decision-making, keeping the civilian bureaucracy at bay. The ball, the Prime Minister apparently said, is in the military’s court now.

‘It’s Not Possible To Predict When The Bushfires Will End’

With a death toll of over 20 people and damage expected to exceed $4.4 billion according to Moody’s Analytics, Australia’s bushfires have not only been devastating but they are not likely to end anytime soon. Ashwin Ahmad, Opinion Editor of StratNews Global, speaks with Mosiqi Acharya, Senior Producer at SBS Radio in Australia to get a sense of when the bushfires can be contained, if not ended, what will be the political fallout for Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and what lessons can be drawn on from this tragic episode in the future.

 

U.S. Waiver For Chabahar: Will Gulf Tension Play Spoiler?

NEW DELHI: India is keeping its fingers crossed in the wake of heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, concerned it could impact its plans for the development of Chabahar port in Iran. The U.S. recently granted India a “narrow waiver” from sanctions for the port’s development. The waiver is significant as it’s been given in writing for the first time, an indication of the considerable diplomatic energy India expended in convincing the Trump administration.

“It is too early to say if the tensions will have any impact on the waiver,” said sources in South Block. The waiver also covers the 500-km railway line India is building from Chabahar to Zahedan on Iran’s border with Afghanistan. It is expected to persuade banks, businesses, contractors and hardware suppliers to bid for work in Chabahar.

But there is a caveat: the waiver does not apply to “secondary designated entities”, meaning the port’s development must not benefit Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Major General Qassem Soleimani who led IRGC’s foreign arm, the Quds Force, was killed in an U.S. airstrike last week. So India has to tread carefully and hope the Iranians keep the IRGC out of the port.

Tehran too sees the port as a transit hub for the northern Indian Ocean and Central Asia and is impatient for results. Iranian media have described it as the Golden Gate of Iranian

Armed with the waiver, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar could credibly assure the Iranians, at the meeting of the joint commission last December, that Chabahar’s development could now be expedited. The discussions also covered economic and trade issuesFor New Delhi too, Chabahar will provide access to land-locked Afghanistan by skirting Pakistan as well as access to resource rich Central Asia.

“We hope that with this waiver, port equipment manufacturers will have a level of comfort and be more ready to supply equipment,” sources told StratNews Global. The written waiver from the U.S. has now been shared with banks and equipment suppliers so that they shed their reluctance to do business with Chabahar, the sources added.

This correspondent learns that the Ministry of External Affairs has asked the Federation of Freight Forwarders’ Associations of India (FFFAI) to do a study on the challenges the freight industry could face while using the Iranian port. Sources acknowledged many obstacles including the absence of regular shipping lines to sanctions-hit Iran, steep costs, land transit issues between Afghanistan and Iran and so on. The study will come up with recommendations to tackle them.

India believes it’s made the best of a difficult situation. Nearly half a million tonnes of bulk cargo and over 4,000 containers have been handled at Chabahar since December 2018, sources said. Six consignments of dry and fresh fruits including grapes and other agricultural produce from Afghanistan have been shipped to India via Chabahar since February last year. But this is small change; the potential is far greater, a point which is understood in India and Tehran.

With Gulf On Knife Edge, India Waits For Zarif

NEW DELHI:  The Persian Gulf teetered closer to war with Iran firing ballistic missiles at two U.S. bases in Iraq—Irbil in the north and Al Assad in the west.  Iran’s state TV said 80 “American terrorists” were killed in the 15 missiles that were fired. But U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted “all is well” and that assessment of casualties and damage was on. The attacks were in retaliation for the killing of Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. airstrike last week. Oil prices shot up over 4 per cent.

Some comfort could be drawn from Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s tweet which said: “Iran took and concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter … we do not seek escalation or war but will defend ourselves against any aggression.”

India will get an opportunity to know Zarif’s mind when he is in Delhi next week for the annual Raisina Dialogue. Zarif, on his first overseas visit since the killing of Soleimani, is expected to use the conference and the platform it offers to share his country’s views on tensions with the U.S.  There were concerns that Zarif could be a no-show. Earlier, keynote speaker and Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison cried off owing to the bushfires ravaging his country.

Zarif’s presence in Delhi is expected to provide an opportunity for exchange of views with his Indian counterpart Dr S. Jaishankar.  As a close friend of Iran, India is hoping it will be able to counsel Tehran on the need to reduce tensions and avoid a war that could have a debilitating impact on West Asia and beyond. 

“We hope that the situation does not deteriorate. It is for this reason that the External Affairs Minister has been calling up leaders in the region. It is also good to exchange views on the region,” remarked an official. 

Dr Jaishankar spoke to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Zarif on Sunday, two days after Soleimani’s assassination. He tweeted that “developments have taken a very serious turn. India remains deeply concerned about the levels of tension.” In his conversation with Pompeo, Jaishankar said he “highlighted India’s stakes and concerns.”

The External Affairs Minister has also been working the phone lines to speak to other leaders in Iran’s neighbourhood. On Monday, he spoke to Jordanian foreign minister Ayman Safadi who in a tweet said: “We stressed need to de-escalate and reduce tension through dialogue. We emphasised importance of supporting Iraq stability and security.”

Dr Jaishankar has also spoken to the foreign ministers of Qatar, Oman and the UAE in days following Soleimani’s killing. Delhi is concerned about the well being of roughly seven million Indians who live in the Gulf region and send home an estimated $40 billion every year. Bulk of India’s energy comes from this region, not Iran as it is under U.S. sanctions, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE being the major suppliers.

Delhi also has concerns about developing Chabahar port in southern Iran. The U.S. recently gave India a “narrow waiver” for the first time in writing, allowing work in Chabahar to go forward. But getting work done is proving an uphill task given the reluctance of private businesses to flout U.S. sanctions.

India, France Move Towards An Alliance In The Indian Ocean But Will It Work?

The competition for strategic space in the Indian Ocean could see China deploying an aircraft carrier with its complement of other vessels, in the coming years. That’s the assessment of the Indian Navy based on a close study of the pattern of China’s naval profile since 2008, when it first entered the Indian Ocean in force.  Naval and maritime strategists believe that with the U.S.’s perceived retreat from the international arena, India will be increasingly called upon to shoulder the responsibility of countering or balancing China.

Reports last year suggest that Beijing has six to eight naval ships in the Indian Ocean – a figure that is more than likely to go up this year – along with submarines thereby ensuring a formidable footprint. It will enable Beijing to secure its sea lines of communication through which its energy supplies pass.  It will also enhance Beijing’s profile on the strategic east African coast where there are large reserves of gold, coal, natural gas and uranium.

Delhi is accordingly stepping up its game in Africa but needs partners and France is seen as a potential candidate. But Paris has its own views on the Indian Ocean. Alice Guitton, Director-General for International Relations and Strategy, says her country’s vision for the Indian Ocean is not China-centric but is driven by concern over the “hardening of the military environment” in the region.

“We are not the first country to put forward a strategy and vision for the Indian Ocean. Many other countries have done so namely Japan, the United States and India,” she says, “but with the growing number of state actors in the region, there has been a hardening of the military environment which can lead to risks of miscalculation and misunderstanding. France wants to ensure that a rules-based order prevails.”

Guitton was speaking at a recent seminar at the ORF in the Capital.

As Guitton points out, France does have a vested interest in maintaining a presence in the Indian Ocean. “Geographically speaking, France’s strategic vision is the widest and most inclusive among all nations in the world as they stretch from the east of Africa to the Pacific Islands to Chile and of course up to the north,” she says.

According to French government figures, France has 9 million square km of exclusive economic zones in the Indo-Pacific area; 1.5 million citizens in five overseas territories, 200,000 expatriates, military forces permanently on station, and other vital economic interests in the region.

The problem though as Guitton admits is that Paris has been unable to substantially ‘interest its European partners’ to devote ships to patrol the area and hence Paris has been forced to look elsewhere. In 2018, President Macron called for the “creation of a new strategic alliance between France, India and Australia” to respond to challenges in the region.

Elaborating on Macron’s remarks, Guitton says that France and India have an ideal strategic partnership that will enable it to focus on common areas of concern. “Our defence relations have grown stronger and we are engaging with each other in strategic dialogue at many levels. Prime Minister Modi has also recently appointed chief of defence staff which I believe will further boost our defence relations.”

The French outreach is welcome and both countries have agreed on joint naval patrols beginning this year, with a French commitment to also monitor China’s activities in the Mozambique Channel. But both countries have different strategic objectives: France is primarily looking to safeguard its territory and citizens in the Indian Ocean region, while New Delhi is seeking to check China’s strategic inroads into its ocean backyard.

183 Arrested For Australian Bushfire ‘Arson’

CANBERRA: Hundreds of Australians have been arrested for allegedly deliberately lighting Australian bushfires in only a matter of months.

Australia is currently enduring one of the worst bushfire crises in the nation’s history, with at least 25 people having been killed since September.

‘The Australian’ reported on Tuesday that 183 people have been arrested for lighting bushfires in New South Wales (NSW), Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.

In NSW alone, 183 people have been charged or cautioned for bushfire-related offences since November, with 24 arrested for deliberately starting bushfires. While in Victoria 43 were charged in 2019.

In Queensland, where the fires were worst in November, 101 people have been arrested for deliberately starting fires, almost 70 per cent of whom were juveniles.

According to James Ogloff, the director of the Forensic Behavioural Science at Swinburne University, approximately 50 per cent of Australia’s bushfires are started by arsonists.

“They’re interested in seeing fire, interested in setting fire and quite often the information around how fires burn and accelerate excites them,” he told News Corp.

University of Melbourne’s associate professor Janet Stanley said that arsonists, or “firebugs”, were typically young males aged either 12 to 24 or 60 and older.

“There is no one profile but generally they seem to have a background of disadvantage, a traumatic upbringing and often have endured neglect and abuse as a child,” she said.

Brendon Sokaluk, a former volunteer firefighter, was sentenced to 17 years and nine months in jail for starting a 2009 bushfire in Victoria that killed 10 people on Black Saturday, one of Australia’s worst bushfire events.

Raisina Rumble

The flagship Raisina Dialogue of the Observer Research Foundation has run into turbulence. The keynote speaker, Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison, had cancelled last month, citing the bushfires ravaging his country. Even as the organisers scrambled to find a substitute, another high level participant has cried off: Bhutan’s foreign minister Tandi Dorji has conveyed his regrets to South Block saying it would clash with the opening session of parliament in Thimphu.  Now the speculation is whether Iran’s foreign minister Javad Zarif will be a no-show.  With the event just a week away, the hosts are keeping their fingers crossed.

Can’t Keep Kicking The Can Down The Road: Jaishankar

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on India's positive experience of the previous Trump administration

NEW DELHI: “When I was in Jawaharlal Nehru University, there was no ‘tukde-tukde’ gang.” With that External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar dismissed questions about students and activists from the university being branded anti-national. As for the violence in the university on Monday night and the continuing protests over the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), Jaishankar used the launch of a book on China to send home a tough message: That this government was not backing off and would continue to take decisions on issues that it believes have been left to simmer for far too long.

“Look at the citizenship issue, it started 40-50 years ago. Rajiv Gandhi did an agreement in 1985. Article 370 was a temporary article. Ayodhya, show me where in the world you would have an unresolved problem for 150 years,” he said.

Society must have the mindset to resolve problems, he said, but India has preferred to “keep kicking the can down the road”, postponing a decision in the hope that the problem would go away. On the other hand, China’s leaders have built a nation and a narrative on problem solving. This is also the case with the U.S., Jaishankar noted.

On terrorism, he said “no country has been so battered by terrorism as we have. It is therefore vital that we not allow terrorism to be normalized. The perpetrators of terrorism will try and pass it off but we cannot be party to that,” he warned.

He said the 2009 India-Pakistan joint statement at the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh was unacceptable precisely because it raised the perpetrator of terrorism Pakistan to the same level as India, the victim. The joint statement included a reference to Balochistan, implying an Indian hand in anti-Pakistan activities there.

He said his government’s decision allowing Pakistani investigators into the Pathankot airbase in July 2018 was carefully thought through. “Even the Pakistanis accepted they were at fault. Nawaz Sharif did not deny it and there was even an FIR filed in Pakistan to bring the ‘unknown persons’ to justice. So the investigation which happened was to pressurise the Pakistanis so they didn’t have an excuse to say ‘well we made an offer, you didn’t accept it.”

Where India’s Chief Of Defence Staff Fits In

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NEW DELHI: After a long, long wait, India has finally got its first Chief Of Defence Staff (CDS). On January 1, former Army Chief General Bipin Rawat took charge of the post that has the rank of a Four Star General with the salary and perks admissible to that of a Service Chief. So what exactly does the post entail? In this chat, Nitin A. Gokhale, Editor-in-Chief of StratNewsGlobal, gives you the details.


The Wider National Problem Beyond Pinaka

CHENNAI:

The Comment

“Long range artillery aided with precision can be a suitable complement for air-power and lack of fighter sqns of the IAF. The precision and low cost should be enough for us to procure the same. The precision element included in long range rockets will also moderate the myth of rockets being area weapon with limited use due to higher collateral damage, especially in times when collateral damage is frowned upon. Pinaka is a better system than Smerch rockets in its ability to be upgraded and having latest technologies, more importantly, indigenously developed. Thus, the need of hour is to go in for long range precise rocket artillery which can swing across the bandwidth of gun artillery at one end and complementary to airpower at another thus reducing need of guns for contact battle and freeing up airpower for air superiority”. This response to my article ‘Pinaka in Conventional Non-Contact Deterrence’ is from an officer who commanded a Smerch Regiment when I was GOC of the Artillery Division. I think it is brilliant, precise and crisp in its conception. I will take it forward from there to widen the picture since there is a bigger problem which needs to be addressed.

Row Your Boats On Your Own

Despite Pakistan’s economic tatters and a Chinese economic slowdown their militaries are expanding and modernising, unabated. While our relationship with both our nuclear neighbours is increasingly adversarial, there is increasing collusion between them. The latest being that China is going to give 236 of the latest 155mm Howitzers to Pakistan. On the domestic front, societal events and upheavals are forcing our so-called ‘strategic’ friends and neighbours into a rethink mode to recalibrate their relationships with us. We need to be prepared to face international headwinds. Welcome to the world of realpolitik and increased threats. Be prepared to row your own boats.

Non-Contact Warfare And Long-Range Precision

The Chinese White Paper on defence lays tremendous focus on surveillance, firepower, extending ranges and standoff engagements. The U.S. has very clearly stated that Long Range Precision Fires is the highest priority and have funded programmes accordingly. They talk of Multi Domain Operations, Non-Contact Warfare and Standoff. So does our newly appointed CDS. In recent times, he has been speaking of Non-Contact Warfare in every possible forum. Beyond a point, Non-Contact Warfare involving violence must be executed by Artillery and Air Force only. That point is where Infantry and Tank ranges end.

Shrinking Military Budgets

Military budgets will stagnate or shrink in a slowing economy. There is no option but to modernise with tight budgets. We are also in an era of disruption and multi domain operations. War is changing without doubt and we must change accordingly. That means we need to spend more on new technologies. Budgets for that must also come from the already shrinking budgets! The finale is that if one thinks that less will be available for traditional hardware of conflict, he is bang on target. The noose is tightening. If you cannot think out of the box, be prepared to die within it.

The Himalayan Requirements

Turn to the Himalayas—our main and future battlefield as evident from the first thoughts of the COAS. The core capability we need is well-equipped Infantry to hold ground and devastating firepower to inflict damage on a sustained basis. Firepower means a strong Air Force and Artillery—short, medium and long-range firepower with annihilative capability despite taking a hit. To make firepower count, we need to force-multiply it with accurate surveillance and target acquisition capability. This implies that the arrowhead of our forces whose capabilities must be strengthened and sharpened revolves around Infantry, Artillery and Air Force. Any imbalance in their synergistic capacities will be at a national cost.

State of Infantry, Air Force And Artillery

Let us examine the Infantry, Air Force and Artillery. Our top-heavy Infantry leadership has failed to modernise its own arm—The Infantry. Expecting them to modernise the rest of the Army is far too much. That is a proven fact now. Infantry Generalship apart, our Infantrymen are the salt of the earth. They will fight to the last man, last round if the enemy and his firepower is kept off their backs. To do that we need a strong Air Force and Artillery which are complimentary to each other to deter the Chinese as also take them on if needed. The potency of IAF is plummeting with reducing number of squadrons even after considering future induction of Rafales and Sukhois and production of Tejas. Any new Request For Proposal (RFP) for any kind of fighters will have a time loop of 15-20 years. That is our record which cannot be shortened. Things will not improve overnight. In the meantime, China is busy upgrading airfields and its Air Force to out match us. Our air power edge is eroding. Our artillery is getting to be potent with a plethora of guns and missiles set to enter the fray. It has the potential to plug the loopholes which are palpably appearing due to the slow pace of Infantry modernization and the decreasing air power edge.

Pragmatic Options Vs Limited Thinking

Artillery is the low-cost option which can substitute air power to meet our national requirements in these hard economic times. Is artillery being positioned and developed accordingly? NO. We are caught in a situation where the IAF is unable to think beyond fighters and the Indian Army is not able to think beyond the infantry. Individual service capabilities based on narrow views have taken precedence over overarching national perspectives. The requirement of the defence establishment to work for a national perspective has clearly eluded us. The CDS must bridge this divide. Otherwise, we will pay a heavy price.

Force Division Vs Force Multiplication

Increasing range of engagement, having non-contact deterrence capability, substituting depleting air power with relatively low-cost artillery demands that we have adequate numbers. In 2008 we visualised a set of numbers for the Pinaka. When the national scenario demands more numbers, the Indian Army has reduced them! I have written about this ‘reverse gear’ phenomenon earlier. Further, efficacy of long-range artillery is linked with an inherent capability to seek, locate and destroy targets in depth. There is an essential link between sensors and shooters. Unless you have UAVs and long-range guns and rockets intimately linked and functioning as one, they cannot substitute air force. Without UAVs, long-range artillery, beyond visual range is like the blind ‘Dhritarashtra’ from The Mahabharat. Till now those links were the UAVs which were integral to the artillery. Recently, they were hived off. All the UAVs are to be handed over to the Army Aviation. The thinking and emphasis is that UAVs are for surveillance and the Army Aviation is better suited for it. From dual tasking, we have reduced the UAVs to a single-task situation in one stroke. Not only have we reduced the numbers but also have divided our capability. This is the prime example not of force multiplication but of force division.

Sensor to Shooter Links—Snapped Like A Twig

Once upon a time, the aerial sensor-shooter umbilical was the erstwhile air OP. They used to carry out observation duties. They were very effective and so were the guns. Their success is borne out in all operations. There was elan about the Air OP boys who carried out daredevil flying to destroy enemy. They were in sync with the guns. Many times, they were from or had affiliation with the regiments with which they were firing. These were both personal and professional. Ever since Army Aviation has come into being, this link has snapped like a twig. The Army Aviation with its grandiose imagination of being part of air mobile forces drifted away from artillery. In the process, artillery lost its cutting-edge over the hill capability of observation, liaison and communication to direct fire effectively through aviation. Today, these are peripheral tasks of Army Aviation and not practised. The Army Aviation is still full of glorious plans while effectively being air taxis. The Indian Army, by denying observation to its artillery is force dividing itself. It has done it once before with helicopters and is doing it again with UAVs. That is a pity to put it mildly.

Leadership and Generalship

Why is this happening? I ascribe it to poor leadership and decaying Generalship. I have already written that Generalship is sorely wanting in our context. An overdose and overemphasis of counter insurgency operations has propelled a crop of less than competent infantry officers to the top. Some of them have risen due to majoritarianism rather than cerebral and visionary ability. Largely, the Indian Army follows a caste system of promotion in which “the best might never reach the top, the worst have a fair chance of becoming top Generals. That happens often due to regimental affiliations, lanyarded views, old boy grids and bandwagonism. In my opinion this phenomenon has dropped deeper roots over the past decade”In turn, it has led to the marginalisation of the artillery and mechanised forces and ‘Infantrisation’ of Generals. The current system of ‘General Cadre’ is flawed and heavily biased. I have no problem with Infantry Generals at the top. The best of them are as good as any and I revere them. However, when the not-so-good are promoted to the top it is at the cost of marginalization of the best Artillery, Mech Forces and Sapper Officers. Further, if these lower merit Infantry Officers who have made the grade through other considerations are endowed with favorable astrology, date of birth and higher seniority on commissioning, they have become Army Commanders and Chiefs. The Indian Army leadership gets out of balance. Then, India must recognise that there is a problem. That is already showing up operationally in the way artillery is being viewed and handled. Look beyond to pay, perks and status erosion. Look at the break down in jointness and acrimonious inter-Service views which often surface. Look at the crawling pace of modernisation. Look at the politicisation of the Army leadership. Look at the Social Media and its views on Generals. Take peer and subordinate views. I will quote Bob Dylan as did the previous Air Chief: “the answer, my friend is blowing in the wind”.

A National Relook Is Mandated

If the Army leadership presides over force division either by default or design, how can synergy with IAF or IN develop to get a national doctrine or game plan going? In such conditions, no amount of budget allocation will suffice since a fool and his money are soon parted. In any case, too much of one thing is bad. The time has come to seriously take a relook at the promotion to higher ranks in the Army. Maybe, a pro-rata system is not a bad option. Choose the best from each arm and you will have a balanced composition of professional Generals. There will be many views on this issue and many hackles will be raised. That is fine. It’s time to call a spade a spade. When Infantry Generals aspire for a rifle with two barrels; which does not exist in the world, and want infantry to man and command strategic missile units instead of artillery which has developed and raised them from scratch, I think the nation needs to rethink very seriously on the Generalship ability of some of them. This is a national issue and not merely an internal issue of the Army, Air Force or Navy anymore. I also think that the time has now come to shed the counter-insurgency orientation of the Army. The boots-on-the-ground approach which has dominated our thinking needs a serious rethink. A subtle change is happening.

(Lt Gen. PR Shankar (retired) put Indian Artillery on a firm path of modernisation. He is presently a professor in Aerospace Department of IIT Madras. Views expressed in this article are personal.)

We Won’t Do Anything That Will Harm India’s Interests: Gotabaya

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COLOMBO: Seeking to allay India’s apprehensions ahead of his first scheduled trip abroad as Sri Lankan President—to New Delhi this week—Gotabaya Rajapaksa has a reassurance to offer. We will work with India as a friendly country and won’t do anything that will harm India’s interests, he told Nitin A. Gokhale, Editor-in-Chief of BharatShakti.in and StratNewsGlobal, in his first interview after taking over the top political job in the island nation. He favours Sri Lanka to be neutral as “we don’t want to get in between the power struggles of superpowers. But we want to work with all countries”. Asserting that Sri Lanka’s involvement with China during the presidency of his elder brother Mahinda Rajapaksa (who was President till 2015) was “purely commercial”, Gotabaya feels giving away the Hambantota port to China on a 99-year lease was a mistake by the previous government (when Maithripala Sirisena was President and Ranil Wickremesinghe was Prime Minister). The deal has to be renegotiated, he says. And what does the ex-serviceman have to say about allegations of him being ‘authoritarian’ and ‘racist’? It’s a wrong perception, he counters, created during the conflict period (the Eelam war IV). “I am a disciplined person but that doesn’t mean I am racist”.