The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has serious implications for India which has spent the last decade in firming up its energy security in the Gulf. Nearly 60% of India’s energy comes from this region. Now that policy and the entire supply line is in danger of collapse with Trump’s blockade.
It impacts the ceasefire which expires on April 22nd and although neither side has indicated whether the ceasefire is off, effectively it is if the US starts enforcing the blockade immediately.
If hostilities renew with full vigour as Trump has indicated, the first casualty will be energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran can also be expected to intensify its attacks on the energy infrastructure in the Gulf Arab states, hitting oil and gas supplies.
Add to that the nearly one crore Indians living and working in the Gulf. So far no mass exodus has taken place but that could change as the war intensifies.
India not only loses remittances worth billions of dollars, it will have to move heaven and earth to evacuate Indians from the Gulf.
This could be a repeat of what happened during the First Gulf War in Oct 1990 when, in the wake of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, India evacuated 1,70,000 of its nationals over 59 days. It’s a record that still stands.
The key point is India can no longer depend on the Gulf Arabs, who are helpless in the face of Iranian attacks on their oil and gas facilities. Nor can it turn to Iran, a major supplier at one point before US sanctions.
Russian supplies of oil may get prioritised for China and its not clear if oil producers in Africa can make good India’s requirements.
Of course there’s the US and while oil may be forthcoming, reading Trump’s post on Truth Social leaves an uncomfortable feeling that he hasn’t forgotten Narendra Modi’s rejection of his claim of mediating the cessation of hostilities during Operation Sindoor.
After the talks in Islamabad, Trump paid full tribute to “The kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.”
There are probably as many Americans as Indians who would laugh at Trump complimenting Gen Munir for humanity. But it does suggest Pakistan is back in Washington’s favour, at least for now, with unforseen consequences for Delhi going forward.
Some of this may have been anticipated by South Block given Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s visit to the US. But in the face of a president whose ego still feels the prick of India’s strategic autonomy, it’s not clear what Delhi can do.
Some in the US government may even derive secret enjoyment at India’s predicament. Telling the Americans they messed up may not be appropriate at this point when they know full well they have.
It’s also clear that being friends with everybody or being a “connector power” as some commentators have described India, will only go that far. India not for the first time, stands alone.
