A U.S. naval blockade of Iran would be a large-scale, prolonged military operation that risks provoking renewed retaliation from Tehran and placing significant pressure on an already fragile ceasefire, experts warn.
President Donald Trump, in a social media post after no deal emerged from peace talks this weekend in Islamabad, said the U.S. Navy “will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.”
The U.S. military’s Central Command later said the blockade will only apply to ships going to or from Iran, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. It will take effect on Monday at 10 a.m. in Washington (1400 GMT), CENTCOM said.
Trump also said U.S. forces would interdict vessels that have paid tolls to Iran, even if those ships are now in international waters. “No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The ultimate goal, Trump said, would be to pressure Iran to end its effective closure of the strait, a choke point for about 20% of the world’s oil, to all but the countries that secure safe passage from Tehran.
If Trump’s strategy succeeds, he would eliminate Iran’s greatest point of leverage in negotiations with the United States and clear the strait again for global trade, potentially lowering oil prices.
Iranian Retaliation
With enough warships, the U.S. Navy could set up a blockade that intimidates many commercial tankers from trying to power through with Iranian oil, experts say.
Retired Admiral Gary Roughead, a former chief of U.S. naval operations, cautioned that Iran could fire on ships in the Gulf or attack infrastructure of the Gulf states that host U.S. forces.
Iran’s threats to shipping have caused global oil prices to skyrocket about 50% since U.S. and Israel launched the war on February 28.
Trump said on Sunday that the price of oil and gasoline may remain high in U.S. through November’s U.S. midterm elections, which could see Trump’s Republicans lose control of the U.S. Congress if there is a public backlash. The war has already been unpopular.
(With inputs from Reuters)
