“It appears that there is a shift to get the reins back to the Indo-Pacific and recalibrate the Quad as an instrument for doing things rather than making political and diplomatic statements about the free and open Indo-Pacific,” said Brig Arun Sahgal, Director of the Forum for Security Initiatives, a Delhi-based think tank.
He was on The Gist analysing the outcome of the meeting of Quad Foreign Ministers in Delhi on Tuesday. The reason for the shift, in his view, is the situation in West Asia and the dilemma the Americans find themselves.
They have realised, perhaps not for the first time, that they need help and therefore need to return to America’s strategic partnerships and alliances.
“I also feel there is a thinking in America that they have gone too far in agitating India on multiple issues and there is a need to pull back,” he said.
Does that mean India can look forward to hosting the Quad leaders summit later this year? Sahgal believes there will be a leaders summit but was uncertain about whether it would be hosted by India or some other, probably Australia.
The leaders summit would also depend on the mid-term elections which the US is due to hold in November. Before that, Trump must resolve the quagmire he is stuck in, with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Can the president come out with a credible strategic victory?
There’s Chinese pressure to respond to, can NATO revitalise? There are no answers currently, so it makes sense from the American viewpoint to do something which can be seen as stopgap, but buys time and in that sense, what has been done with the Quad serves that purpose.
“The US has re-energised the maritime surveillance and security initiatives of the Quad. The aim is to integrate the maritime surveillance capabilities of all four nations so that information and data are available to all, including smaller states in Southeast Asia, in the Pacific and even West Asia over a period of time.”
Tune in for more in this conversation with Brig Arun Sahgal of the Forum for Security Initiatives.
