South Korea’s defence minister Ahn Gyu-back is in the US, seeking “OPCON” or operational control of forces and platforms in the event of war with North Korea. Currently, the US has control given the 28,000 troops it has deployed in the south.
But there’s something more to Ahn’s visit, something Pyongyang is watching closely. He wants nuclear submarines, something already agreed upon with President Trump last October. But what form would this take? Wholesale transfer of a nuclear sub or tech sharing? Or just the sealed reactor? Then what happens to the spent fuel? All this is up for discussion.
Conventional wisdom has it that with 26 nuclear reactors and extensive infrastructure built up over the years, South Korea is only a “screw driver’s turn” from having a nuclear weapon. Many years ago it tried to develop one with French help but the US stopped that. Now the green signal from Trump.
The Seoul-based Asan Institute for Policy Studies’ recent poll found 80% public support for South Korea acquiring an indigenous nuclear weapons capability. Earlier it was 76.2%. But some capabilities are needed.
“Access to fissile material, delivery systems capable of carrying a nuclear warhead to its target, and the ability to miniaturise the warhead to fit it onto the delivery system”, explains Niranjan Oak, Research Analyst at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.
He describes South Korea as a ‘nuclear latent state’, meaning it possesses all the technological, industrial and scientific requirements needed to build nuclear weapons, but has so far chosen not to do so.
“Nuclear energy is a major option that it has,” said Dr. Vyjayanti Raghavan of Center of Korean Studies, JNU. “Experts within Korea say that if we want, we can produce nuclear weapons within six months.” Others estimate at least a year.
North Korea’s expanding nuclear arsenal, repeated missile tests and increasingly aggressive rhetoric have sharply intensified threat perceptions in South Korea. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding US foreign policy, particularly under President Donald Trump, has revived anxieties in Seoul about whether Washington would always come to its defence in a crisis.
But President Joe Biden lifted restrictions on South Korean missile development and the Washington Declaration of the Nuclear Consultative Group aimed at strengthening deterrence against North Korea. But if Seoul eventually chooses to pursue nuclear weapons openly, the regional fallout could be enormous.
As Niranjan Oak explains, “South Korea will have to come out of the NPT, invoking Article X of the Treaty, and will face considerable international pressure not to pursue nuclear weapons.” Hence, he added “South Korea needs to meticulously plan the phase between moving out of the NPT and acquiring nuclear weapons”.
Although US has historically backed South Korea militarily, but it has also constantly opposed nuclear proliferation among its allies. Hence, going nuclear will strain the relations between two countries.
Perhaps the biggest geopolitical consequence, however, would involve Japan. It is already moving away from its post-war pacifist stance, increasing defence spending, and easing restrictions on military export.
“If South Korea were to produce nuclear weapons, Japan definitely will not be left behind,” Dr. Raghavan said, pointing to Tokyo’s growing security concerns over both North Korea and China. This may lead to an arms race and China’s response is unclear.
However, the broader history of missile and nuclear proliferation networks in Asia including past allegations of North Korea and Pakistan deepens fear of regional instability for not only Seoul but also for New Delhi.
