The United States Central Intelligence Agency assessed that hardline figures from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could take power if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed in recent US and Israeli strikes, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.

The assessments, prepared in the weeks leading up to the operation, examined possible outcomes following military action and whether such strikes could trigger regime change in Iran.

Officials said the reports did not reach a firm conclusion, but outlined multiple scenarios, including one in which IRGC-linked figures assume control.

The IRGC is an elite force tasked with protecting Iran’s clerical system and has significant political and military influence.

Analysts within the intelligence community viewed the group as a likely contender for power in the event of leadership disruption, reflecting its central role in Iran’s security structure.

US weighed regime change outcomes

The assessments came as President Donald Trump signalled interest in regime change in Iran, though without detailing who might lead the country.

In a video address, Trump described Iran’s leadership as a “terrorist regime” and called on citizens to take control, suggesting military action could create conditions for an uprising.

The strikes followed weeks of internal debate within the US government, alongside efforts to secure a nuclear agreement with Tehran.

Diplomacy and military plans overlapped

US officials had continued nuclear talks with Iran even as military planning progressed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed senior lawmakers that an operation was likely, although the decision remained subject to change.

Negotiations in Geneva ultimately failed to produce an agreement, and officials indicated that preparations for military action moved forward soon after.

The intelligence assessments highlight the uncertainty surrounding Iran’s political future and the risks associated with attempts to reshape its leadership through external intervention.

(with inputs from Reuters)