Bangladesh’s capital is witnessing a rare surge of electoral optimism ahead of the February 12 national polls, with voters hopeful of casting ballots freely for the first time in nearly two decades, according to StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale, who recently returned from a visit to Dhaka.
Gokhale said he arrived two days after the official campaign period began and found a subdued but anticipatory atmosphere, shaped in part by legal limits on campaign spending that have curbed large rallies and visual displays. “People across age groups believe they will finally be able to vote in a free and fair election,” he said, noting anger over being denied that right in the previous three polls.
With the Awami League barred from contesting, Gokhale described the election as an unusually open contest, primarily between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami, which are no longer allied and are directly competing for dominance. Both parties, he said, privately acknowledge that a national unity government could become necessary if no party secures a majority, though such an outcome is widely viewed with suspicion because it could extend the influence of the interim administration.
Gokhale observed a visible resurgence of Jamaat-e-Islami, which he said has spent the past 18 months systematically expanding its organisational reach and rebranding its image. During his visit, he met a young Jamaat candidate who spoke of nation-building, women’s empowerment, poverty alleviation, and improved international relations. Jamaat leaders, Gokhale said, are emphasising that they are “Bangladeshi Jamaat,” distinct from Pakistan, and are presenting themselves as untested and corruption-free.
While Jamaat has no female candidates and openly states it would not have a woman chief, Gokhale said the party is actively deploying women cadres for door-to-door outreach, particularly among homemakers and female students. Business leaders he met expressed mixed feelings but prioritised stability, with one remarking that “business abhors uncertainty.”
India, Gokhale noted, is largely absent from street-level campaign narratives, though sections of the Bangladeshi elite blame New Delhi for placing excessive faith in the Awami League over the years. He argued that New Delhi may ultimately have little choice but to engage any legitimate government that emerges, including one in which Jamaat plays a significant role.
Externally, Gokhale said Western diplomats are highly visible and perceived by elites as influential, while China maintains a low public profile focused on commercial interests. Pakistan, he added, is again making inroads into Bangladesh’s security and business sectors, developments India will watch closely.
Despite uncertainties, Gokhale said enthusiasm among first-time voters—including migrant workers returning specifically to participate—suggests a genuine appetite for political change.
