European intelligence chiefs are increasingly sceptical that ongoing negotiations will bring a swift end to Russia’s war in Ukraine, despite optimism from U.S. President Donald Trump that a deal is within reach.
Officials from five European spy agencies told Reuters that Moscow appears in no hurry to conclude the conflict, instead using talks with Washington to advance broader strategic goals.
One senior official described the negotiations as “theatre”, highlighting a growing divide between European capitals and the White House over the trajectory of the war.
Russia’s Strategic Objectives Unchanged
According to European assessments, Russia’s core aims remain intact: weakening Ukraine’s leadership and ensuring the country becomes a neutral buffer to the West.
Intelligence officials said Moscow does not see urgency in reaching a settlement, noting that Russia’s economy, while under pressure, is not close to collapse.
President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said he is open to peace, but only on terms favourable to Russia a position that continues to complicate negotiations.
Stalemate Over Territory
Recent U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva failed to produce breakthroughs, particularly over territorial disputes. Russia is demanding that Ukraine withdraw from the remaining areas of the Donetsk region it does not control a condition Kyiv has firmly rejected.
European officials warned that even if Ukraine were to concede territory, it would likely not end the conflict. Instead, they believe such concessions could mark the beginning of further Russian demands.
Concerns Over Negotiation Approach
Some intelligence officials also raised concerns about the West’s handling of the negotiations, suggesting a lack of experience and strategic clarity.
The U.S. negotiating team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has faced quiet criticism from European officials who question their diplomatic expertise in dealing with Moscow.
The White House dismissed such concerns, maintaining that U.S. efforts have brought both sides closer to a potential agreement.
Economic Pressure and Long-Term Risks
While Russia has shown resilience, officials warned of mounting financial risks later in 2026, including restricted access to capital markets and high borrowing costs.
At the same time, Moscow is believed to be exploring parallel negotiations with Washington that could involve sanctions relief and major business deals, potentially worth trillions of dollars.
For now, European intelligence assessments suggest that the path to peace remains uncertain and that current negotiations may be more about positioning than resolution.
(with inputs from Reuters)
