Russia’s oil export earnings surged in March and India played a major role in absorbing the additional supply. Import data shows that Indian refiners bought an estimated 45–50 million barrels of Russian crude between late February and the end of March.
Daily intake rose to about 1.9 million barrels by the last week of March, up from roughly 1 million barrels per day in February. That pushed Russia’s share of India’s total crude imports to close to 30% during the period.
Refiners stepped up purchases as a precaution against possible disruption to Gulf supply routes, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. State-run firms and private players, including Indian Oil, BPCL, HPCL and Reliance Industries, were all active in the market.
The surge in demand coincided with a sharp rise in prices. Russian Urals crude delivered to India approached $100 per barrel in March, the highest level seen since 2022.
The increase also narrowed the discount Russia typically offers compared to global benchmarks. Even so, a gap remained between prices at Russian ports and those paid in India, reflecting shipping, insurance and intermediary costs tied to sanctions-related trade routes.
The jump in prices and volumes provided a timely lift to Russia’s finances after a slow start to the year. Energy revenues are a key pillar of the federal budget, particularly as military spending continues to rise.
The International Energy Agency, however, cautioned that Russia might find it difficult to increase production in the short run. Damage to ports and energy infrastructure, coupled with persistent logistical issues, could cap any further advancements.
For the time being, March represents a distinct shift, fuelled as much by geopolitical factors as by market realities, with India playing a key role in the recovery.
