NEW DELHI: Iran says its current tensions vis a vis the U.S. won’t affect India. But it’s hard to see how India can remain untouched by the new headwinds blowing across the Persian Gulf. Tehran appears to be moving closer to abrogating the 2015 nuclear deal, vowing to disregard limits on nuclear fuel enrichment, the size of its nuclear stockpile and continue R&D.

Iraq has also upped the ante, with a parliamentary resolution calling for the expulsion of all 5,200 U.S. troops on its soil. The U.S. has responded saying it is putting the war against the Islamic State on hold in order to defend its bases. President Donald Trump has threatened sanctions on Iraq, warning that he will seek billions of dollars in compensation for the costs Washington has incurred in securing Iraq.

The new developments come on the heels of India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar having a long conversation with his Iranian counterpart Javad Zarif over the phone. Later, he tweeted: “India remains deeply concerned about the levels of tension. We agreed to remain in touch.”

There was little comfort he got from his chat with Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State. “The Trump administration won’t hesitate to act to keep American lives and those of our friends and allies safe.”

But there was some satisfaction on another front. India appears to have got the green light from Washington to continue pursuing its plans in the Iranian port of Chabahar. Since the project is touted as a humanitarian effort to help Afghanistan, the U.S. said it had no objections although one needs to wait and watch.

In the wake of the U.S. strike that killed the Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and the earlier attempt by pro-Iran militias in Bghdad to storm the U.S. embassy, oil prices shot up with diesel and petrol costing more at Indian fuel pumps. Since India is dependent to the extent of 84 per cent on imported oil, much of which comes from the Persian Gulf, any volatility there carries the risk of supply disruption.

But oil is not India’s only problem. Until recently, Indian rice export to Iran was a lucrative business. Then Donald Trump and sanctions intervened and the obstacles mushroomed. In the last week, things have got a lot worse with the All India Rice Exporters Association firing off a warning missive to its members: “In the current situation, it is not possible to export basmati rice to Iran. We have issued an advisory not to execute further shipments till the situation gets clearer.”

There could be some clarity when the Indo-Iranian joint working group on trade meets. The working group is expected to finalise a preferential trading agreement, a bilateral investment treaty and promote cooperation between the customs services of the two countries. But when this will happen is not known.

In the meantime, basmati rice exporters in India are facing the prospect of a steep fall in Iran’s annual import of 200,000 tonnes. Unpaid bills amount to around $12 million and some rice is also lying in ports where there is danger it could rot.

Rice is not India’s sole export to Iran. There are also cereals, tea, coffee, spices and organic chemicals that find a ready market. Exports of all have been hit.

The grapevine has it that India needs to be a bit “creative” if it wants to ensure its exports continue to do well. Routing shipments through third countries is an option. Payment in rupees is another option, which has been happening since Nov. 2019 for oil. The Iranian Bank Pasargad is expected to open a branch in Mumbai shortly after having got clearance from the Reserve Bank of India. Two more Iranian banks are keen on opening either a representative office in India or appointing a subsidiary.

Finally, there is a sense in the Indian government that the current tensions could settle. Iran, despite the fire and fury of its rhetoric, has been seriously weakened by U.S. sanctions and cannot afford a war. Its Iraq backyard is on fire, largely because of late Qassem Soleimani’s meddling which has underscored Persian-Arab sensitivities and differences. President Trump has all along indicated he has no interest in getting involved in another West Asian conflict. Hopefully, the storm in the Persian Gulf will settle.

NEW DELHI: The recent handover of 13 captured Indian ISIS fighters by the Afghan government has confirmed to Indian intelligence agencies that the global terrorist organisation is determined to not only to expand its footprint in India, but also to get more Indian fighters to do it.

Though India has been prepared for the ISIS threat for some time now – the Union Home Ministry had announced in March last year, the creation of special cell to study its activities in the country – the growing number of captured Indian ISIS operatives coming from the south of India, especially Kerala, has ensured that new counter-terrorism strategies need to be thought of to deal with this threat and fast.

Kabir Taneja, Associate Fellow at the ORF and co-author of the paper entitled The Islamic State in India’s Kerala: A Primer believes that the radicalisation of Keralites to the ISIS cause has been going on since 2012, even before the announcement of the Caliphate by ISIS in 2014.

Taneja says, “ISIS has employed local handlers in the state who have successfully created jihadi videos in the local language which has proved to be a very successful strategy. Second, unlike other states in India, Kerala has a strong familiarity with the Gulf with many Keralites working there. This has allowed them to travel more easily through GCC countries into ISIS-dominated areas. The third factor is that so far unlike Europe, where lone-wolf attacks are the norm, radicalised Kerala ISIS operatives have no interest in domestic attacks but in dying for the cause abroad.”

Unlike other terror groups, ISIS has been especially successful with its online propaganda. Slick videos in local languages are a far cry from Al Qaeda, which is more conservative with Arabic language videos. Taneja says a counter-terrorism policy needs to be framed with these factors in mind.

“ISIS has tried to set up organisations such as the Indian Mujahideen and others in India but by and large they have failed. At the same time, India needs to realise that current, conventional counter-terrorism strategies mainly those that have been employed in J&K, will not work in Kerala and a new counter-terrorism policy needs to be framed. This needs to focus on online radicalisation and strengthening community relations if we are to catch and de-radicalise the target group.”

Statistics show just why the government needs to act fast to clamp down on the growing threat of radicalisation in the state. The ORF study shows that out of the over 150 ISIS operatives or sympathisers being caught in the country, over 40 of them (more than 25%) are from Kerala. Mohammed Sinan Siyech, Research Analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) and co-author of the paper, says that historical factors also play a part in explaining why radicalised Muslims from Kerala are likely to feel more affinity towards the ISIS than other radicalised Muslims from the rest of the country.

Sivan believes that radicalised Mappila Muslims share beliefs that are in consonance with ISIS’s thinking. “Radicalised Mappila Muslims, who first came to Kerala between the 7th and 8th century, are more likely to believe in a ‘golden age’ of Islam which is what the ISIS propagates. Secondly, the battles between the Mappilas and the Portuguese which included Portuguese atrocities on the Mappilas in the 1400s has left a scar on the community. Thus, our contention is this group is likely to be more sympathetic to ISIS ideology whose call for a Caliphate is primarily a war against western Christianity.”

While such factors are helpful in understanding how  radicalisation takes place and putting in place counter-terrorism missions such as ‘Operation Pigeon’, which was launched by the government in 2016 in Kerala, some experts feel that more can be done. Adil Rasheed, a research fellow at IDSA, believes to effectively counter jihad, one needs to understand the ideologies and motivations of various Islamic jihadi groups and how they relate to India.

“The Indian Muslim has not joined Al Qaeda or ISIS as compared to other countries.  Part of the reason is that India has its own Islamic scholars and ideologies which are at odds with global jihadist groups. In north India, a large number of Muslims are Sunni Hanafis, who are at odds with the Salafist ideology of the ISIS. Hence, there is little incentive for them to come together,” says Rasheed.

“Such differences are crucial to know if one is to counter jihad and drive a wedge between various terror groups. I especially believe we may have missed a trick in doing just that in the case of Pakistan-backed jihadi groups. For instance, the LeT follows the Ahle Hadees Salafi form of Islam while the JeM are Deobandi Hanafis and these two forms of Islam are doctrinally opposed to one other. By keeping this in mind we can ensure counter-terrorism policies can be aggressive rather than defensive and reactionary.”

There is a path to the top of even the highest mountain, says a Dari proverb. In Afghanistan, though, the road to the top of that mountain is never over till it’s finally over. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) has declared the preliminary results of the September 29 Presidential vote. President Ashraf Ghani has got over the needed 50 per cent and one vote needed to retain power for a second term. But these are preliminary results and if he or his Chief Executive Dr Abdullah Abdullah doesn’t win at least that number when the final results are declared, the process is to have a run-off between the top two. When will the final results be announced? The Independent Election Complaints Commission (IECC) now steps in. All candidates have three days to register their objections. Chairperson Zuhra Shinwari says addressing all complaints will take between 37 and 39 working days after that. So, no final result before February 2020. And if no one crosses the needed magic mark, a run-off is needed, which because of winter, logistics and finances is impossible to hold before the snow melts in Spring 2020. There’s of course American arm-twisting that can happen like it did with the same two top contenders being forced to form a National Unity Government (NUG) in 2014. But both have refused to follow that path this time.

Hawa Alam Nuristani, the Chairperson of the IEC, announced the initial results nearly three months after the polls and more than two months after the commission’s October 19 timeline to declare them. The timeline also had November 23 as the probable date for any second round if needed. Now that timeline moves to Spring unless President Ghani or Dr Abdullah gets the required final numbers. The IEC says the President won 923,868 or 50.64 per cent of the valid vote followed by Dr Abdullah with 720,990 or 39.52 per cent of the vote. Turnout was the lowest since the Taliban were ousted in 2001, with just 1.82 million valid votes counted. Afghanistan’s total population is about 37 million, with 9.6 million of them registered voters. Nearly one million votes were excluded due to irregularities. So, in the end, a President could win with a single digit percentage of the total possible voters.

Abdullah Abdullah’s team immediately rejected the initial result announcement. “We would like to make it clear once again… that our team will not accept the result of this fraudulent vote unless our legitimate demands are addressed.” 

He has been questioning the validity of around 300,000 ballots and demands their rejection. The Chief Executive has also accused the IEC of trying to rig the election outcome in favour of the incumbent, a charge Chairperson Nuristani has repeatedly rejected. After all the previous fraud-marred and controversial elections, the IEC for the first time used biometric machines to weed out people from voting more than once. But, it had to still reject nearly one million of the initial 2.7 million votes polled.

The highest mountain seems still a way off till this result is decided and accepted. Protests have been taking place by both Dr Abdullah supporters and some of the other Presidential candidates’ parties. Whether that will further fracture the country along ethnic lines depends on how the leaders and their teams now react.

President Ghani won majorities in the ethnically dominant Pashtun South and East, while Dr Abdullah has majorities in central, western and northern areas dominated by other ethnic groups including Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras among others, according to a map released by the IEC.

Flanked by his running mates and supporters, President Ghani in a nationally televised address said they are “celebrating the country’s victory… a victory for the Republic and a clear rejection of those pushing alternative formulas”. “Our embrace is wide open, our patience like the Hindukush… We are moving towards trust and national unity,” he said.

That remains to be seen. The U.S. reacted cautiously. Ambassador John Bass tweeted: “It’s important for all Afghans to remember: these results are preliminary. Many steps remain before final election results are certified, to ensure the Afghan people have confidence in the results.”

Many steps also remain before an agreement with the Taliban is reached. U.S. talks officially resumed in December almost two months from the day President Donald Trump tweeted they were dead. The U.S. President resuscitated talks in his first visit in office to the country to Bagram Air Force Base on Thanksgiving when he also met President Ghani. The Taliban has repeatedly insisted America has to first reach a deal with them on withdrawal of foreign troops and counter-terrorism guarantees. Taliban statements say only after that intra-Afghan talks (with among others the Kabul government) can begin as well as negotiations for a larger ceasefire with Afghan forces. After a recent pause in talks, U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad berated the Taliban saying, “They must show they are willing and able to respond to the Afghan desire for peace.” Sources suggest the Taliban could announce a short-term ceasefire after a troop withdrawal and reduction of violence agreement is signed between them and the U.S. soon.

Ambassador Khalilzad also had meetings with Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa on December 13 and “Welcomed Pakistan’s help to facilitate a reduction of violence & ceasefire in Afghanistan so we can pivot to intra-Afghan negotiations.” More than 150,000 people are estimated to have been killed in the last 18 years of war. So, that again is a high mountain to climb though the search for a path to the top continues.