The attempt at regime change in Iran by the United States and Israel, has several implications globally. The obvious ones are energy and logistic supply chain security. The less obvious ones are the ascendancy of Israel as the primary player in West Asia and the one after that is the US becoming a follower rather than a leader in the region.
Both these factors actually indicate the changing nature of the geopolitics. As long as Netanyahu is in office, the application of military force to resolve issues in the region will remain in force. Additionally, with the US playing second fiddle, none of the other powers including Saudi Arabia will directly interfere in this policy.
India’s position is very clear and it is standing by Israel indicating that strategic autonomy is out of the window. This will have implications, despite ensuring that energy is no longer handled by the government.
It is left to private enterprise to engage in the oil business, thus allowing them to dictate prices to their advantage, suggesting that with international oil prices on the rise, India could well see an spike in prices sooner than later.
The other point of note is that India has gone in a direction away from atmanirbhar by putting all military specific eggs in the Israeli basket including drones, missiles systems and avionics. This will only intensify dependencies.
The Iran conflict increases risk to Indians living in West Asia. While the MEA has over the years perfected the art of evacuating Indians in times of crises, any further intensification of conflict will impact all three critical elements, i.e., remittances, Indian nationals resident in the region and energy.
The other aspect will be supply chain risk which has been at risk for some time now. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, manufacturing will face disruptions. Pressure on the Suez Canal will also intensify.
Regime change in Iran is not a easy task. To believe that aerial bombing can produce regime change is to underestimate the power of the Iranian system. Well entrenched, this system will have to be broken from within, if anyone is to succeed.
Israel is more likely to succeed, but only if it can produce the second line of leadership to succeed the present dispensation. As of now, the objective seems to be to rid Iran of nuclear weapons and decapitate the leadership. A four-week window is insufficient to achieve regime change of any sort. Expect more conflict and violence across the region.
The US has nothing to lose, while Israel has everything to lose. If it does not achieve regime change, then it is the end of Netanyahu. That much is clear. It is therefore, necessary for Israel to get the US into action on Phase II of the plan to actuate the change in government. That is where the real challenge lies and it is for President Trump to do this without rocking the boat too much.
