Kim Jong Un May Think Twice About War With The South

North Korea’s mercurial leader Kim Jong Un has again threatened war on unnamed enemies. Addressing the armed forces recently, he urged them to spare no effort at training and ensure they are ready for war.

The provocation for Kim’s remarks appears to stem from military exercises being conducted for the last week between the South Koreans and the US. These are land, naval and air drills and their size and sophistication may have deepened his sense of insecurity. While his armed forces remain formidable at over 1.3 million men, legacy equipment and limited exposure to new concepts of war fighting may account for Kim’s discomfort.

To be sure, Kim may have the edge in the initial stage of war and his army is configured for quick strikes across the 38th Parallel separating the north from the south. He will be able to bring to bear his short-range artillery in support of fast- moving special forces. And since it is widely believed that Kim will be the one to initiate war, he has another edge in terms of timing of the operation.

But South Korea is no minnow. Although its army is numerically inferior to what Pyongyang is fielding, it is considered highly capable, better armed and also has the US to fall back upon in case things go haywire. South Korea is also part of an alliance system with Japan and although Seoul and Japan have had less than rosy relations in the recent past, the result of a tumultuous history when Korea was a Japanese colony, there’s nothing like a shared enemy to bring these two together.

Kim Jong Un may also think twice about initiating war with the South. He is concerned about his regime’s survival and knows a war could upset everything. If his army is defeated on the battlefield, his regime is over and done with. He may end up seeking sanctuary in China or Russia, neither of whom he has any illusions about.