The Pahalgam terror attack has sparked nationwide outrage and drawn sharp condemnation from world leaders. Voices calling for revenge are growing shriller. And the responses to Uri and Pulwama attacks having set precedents, how should India react to the Pakistani misadventure?
Discretion is the better part of valour, says Ramanathan Kumar, former Special Secretary of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW). He wouldn’t speculate what India’s response would be but suggests due diligence. The potential for escalation has to be thought through, carefully calibrated and managed, he told StratNews Global.
Reckless Action, Balanced Reaction
The Pakistani Army would be expecting a response. But an action as reckless as the Pahalgam terror attack should ideally not elicit a reckless response, Kumar adds.
He quoted “one of the ablest and wisest civil servants of India” on how to deal with Pakistan. The public servant had said it was in India’s long term interest to work towards enduring peace with Pakistan. Kumar agrees with the view. He argues that the best way to work towards that is from a position of strength. And India is now in that position of strength much more than it ever was. But even when you do that, it’s wise not to underestimate the potential for mischief that your adversary has.
Kumar underlines the importance of good intelligence, good anticipation, thinking things through and not rushing to judgment. “Complacency, even for the stronger actor, is not an option.”
Pak Back To Old Playbook
The Pahalgam terror attack has shattered an illusion that terrorist attacks planned by Pakistan are targeted at Indian security forces. It’s a nasty surprise for those who believed so. But by targeting civilians, as they did long ago, the Pakistani Army and the ISI are back to their old playbook, says Kumar.
Bid To Disrupt Normalcy In Kashmir
By revoking Article 370 of the Constitution, India ended the special status given to J&K in August 2019. The changes that followed paved the way for a semblance of normalcy there. Tourist footfalls have gone up and trade has flourished. The Pahalgam terror attack could clearly be an attempt to puncture that impression of normalcy. The Pakistani establishment has not been able to come up with any kind of coherent response to India’s firm stand. That talks and terror will not go together.
The Generals in Pakistan have long believed that they can use violence to force India to come to the negotiating table. It’s a longtime delusion, and Asim Munir is no different, says Kumar.
Munir is also battling several fronts in Pakistan itself. The security situation in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is a direct challenge to his authority. Although still behind bars, Imran Khan remains both popular and a formidable threat. And Munir is struggling to shrug off the image of being incompetent.
World Stands With India
Pakistan’s international credibility is at low ebb while the world recognises India as a responsible power. The international responses to Pahalgam terror attack have shown that India has a great deal of latitude to do whatever we think is most appropriate under the circumstances, feels Kumar.
So if the Pakistani General thinks going back to the old playbook will be advantageous, he will find out soon enough that he is sadly mistaken.
