As Prime Minister Modi readies for his departure to Kazan, in Russia later this month for the BRICS Summit, speculation about a possible one-on-one with China’s Xi Jinping. With that in context, how could the state of its economy and its geopolitics impact?
Stratnewsglobal tossed the ball to two young China scholars, Dr Sriparna Pathak of Jindal Global University and Saheb Singh Chadha, a research analyst at Carnegie India. Both were invited to The Gist show to give their views and here’s how it went.
Based on her close monitoring of the Chinese economy, Dr Pathak argued that domestic consumption in that country is yet to pick up.
“China shows all the signs of a developing economy,” Dr Pathak notes, “but it also has a lot of peculiarities and consumption is one of them. It hovers around 25% to 40%, not normal at all.”
It explains the flood of highly subsidised Chinese exports swamping markets all over the world, and the reaction it is provoking.
“Abroad, the world is not ready to take their goods. Only a few days ago, Biden slapped 100% duties on Chinese EVs I think, 25% on steel products and so on.”
Saheb Singh Chadha argues that ahead of the BRICS Summit in Kazan later this month, and for the first time in four years, “The Indian side is talking of stabilizing and rebuilding bilateral ties. Words they have not used in recent times.”
At the same time India is demanding disengagement, so there is no change in that stand. Also important to note that both sides are framing things in a more positive manner. Jaishankar talked of 75% disengagement having taken place.
The Chinese ambassador has also made a stream of positive comments, seeking reopening of trade ties with India, and allowing the entry of EVs from that country.
How much each side will give or not, will depend on the outcome if any Modi-Xi bilateral happens. At this point it’s all speculation. But Dr Pathak warned that if India backtracks and reopens the doors to Chinese products, Beijing will only see it as a weakness.
