“The killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah is the second blow to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayotollah Khameinei since the elimination of Gen Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad Airport four years ago,” said a senior former diplomat with considerable experience of politics in the Gulf.
Solemani headed the powerful Revolutionary Guard, he pointed out, which is the sword arm of the Islamic Republic and its main power base. Nasrallah, on the other hand, was the man who ensured Hezbollah’s strategy and tactics were aligned with Iran’s broader aims in the region.
“Now Hezbollah will have to be rebuilt, brick by painful brick,” he said, “but Tehran is not answering the question every Shia out there is asking: ‘Why did Iran not respond to Hezbollah’s calls for help? It is well known that officers from the Revolutionary Guard are embedded with Hezbollah and many have died in Israeli strikes. All Iran offered was moral support.”
Iran’s credibility has been dealt other blows: a more recent one being the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in a Tehran suburb. Add to that, the mysterious deaths since 2007, of five Iranian scientists, blamed on Mossad.
Dr Khinvraj Jangid, Director of Israel Studies at Jindal Global University, believes Iran’s clerical leadership is on the backfoot, insecure after the success of repeated Israeli strikes, whether in Lebanon or Iran.
“They are caught in a trap, with dissent growing domestically, the economy under sanctions and doing badly, the war is becoming unaffordable but how do they U-turn now, what will they say to their supporters in Lebanon and Syria.”
At the same time Iran is not prepared to abandon its “extra-territorial gains” in Lebanon and Syria, the former in fact is its crown jewel. But Sunni Muslims and Christians in Lebanon have never been happy with Iran’s backing of Hezbollah, which has reduced the country to a war zone.
For that matter, even the Syrians are not fighting to retake the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel since 1967 and annexed in 1981.
With respect to the Gaza War, Iran had gambled that Israel would agree to a ceasefire, but that didn’t happen although Prime Minister Netanyahu was under fire at home over the hostages.
Disregarding other warnings, he expanded the war into Lebanon and in the eyes of many Israelis, stands vindicated after eliminating Nasrallah and seven other key Hezbollah commanders.
What could Netanyahu’s next move be?
“There’s speculation he could occupy south Lebanon,” says Dr Jangid, “in a repeat of its 18-year long occupation of that territory (1982-2000). That didn’t end too well with the Israelis pulling back in 1983 amid rising casualties from guerrilla attacks.”
“Can’t rule it out,” the former diplomat said, “but it will be expensive, or they may make small incursions just to make sure Hezbollah does not return in any strength to this area.”
For now Israel holds the cards with the US allowing the Jewish state to inflict appalling levels of violence on its enemies (recall Nasrallah was incubated in the bloody bombing of the US embassy in Beirut in 1983, carried out by Islamic Jihad backed by Hezbollah).
A desperate decimated Hezbollah could return to terrorism, striking at targets in the region and beyond. Iran could renew focus on its struggling nuclear programme with the aim of acquiring nuclear weapons. The possibilities and the risks are limitless.
