War in Iran, stretched U.S. commitments in Asia, and escalating tensions over Taiwan are expected to dominate discussions at Shangri-La Dialogue, the region’s leading defence forum, taking place from May 29 to 31.
U.S. Focus and the Iran Conflict Spillover
While Vietnam’s President To Lam will deliver Friday night’s keynote, the spotlight will fall squarely on U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth when the Pentagon chief takes the floor against the backdrop of halting efforts to end the war in Iran.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he had told his representatives not to rush into any deal with Iran, as his administration played down hopes of an imminent breakthrough in the three-month-old conflict.
The U.S. blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz will remain in place until a formal agreement is reached, President Donald Trump said on Truth Social.
Iran has effectively shut the Strait since the war began on February 28, disrupting a key route that handles about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments.
Asian allies are expected to watch closely for signs that the Trump administration is overstretched by the Middle East conflict and tensions in Europe, raising concerns over U.S. focus and policy stability in the region.
Analysts say the Iran war is already driving up oil prices, fueling inflation, and straining supply chains across import-dependent Asian economies.
China’s Participants Unclear
A key unknown is whether China will send its defence minister after skipping last year’s dialogue, a decision that ceded the stage to Washington with Beijing later accusing Hegseth of “vilifying” China.
China’s defence ministry has not confirmed whether Defence Minister Dong Jun will attend and which other officials it might also send. The ministry did not respond to a Reuters’ request for comment.
Hegseth arrives after the summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump earlier this month in Beijing and amid simmering tensions over Taiwan.
China has ramped up pressure on Taiwan by increasing its military presence around the island, keeping Taipei on high alert for further Chinese moves following the summit.
“In the aftermath of the summit, I suspect he will tread carefully on China,” said Bonnie Glaser, head of the Indo-Pacific Program of the German Marshall Fund think-tank, adding that Hegseth might further push allies and partners to spend more on defence.
Analysts expect exchanges on how smaller states navigate the U.S.-China rivalry, as well as focus on maritime flashpoints in the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca, and defence spending.
Vietnam’s Lam is expected to underscore Hanoi’s neutrality as it deepens ties with both Washington and Beijing while defending its maritime claims against China.
Newly installed as both Communist Party chief and president, Lam is the most powerful Vietnamese leader in decades and is poised to play a more prominent diplomatic role.
(With inputs from Reuters)
