Has Trump’s two-week ceasefire given him leverage? Or does it serve Iran’s interests? The ceasefire means no more attacks, and Iran will be allowed to charge fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has already said it intends to use the money for reconstruction. There could be more as negotiations kick off on Friday.
As Col Rajeev Agarwal, Senior Research Consultant at the Chintan Research Foundation, told StratNews Global on The Gist, the real winner here is possibly Iran.
“Trump himself is saying that the ten-point program which Iran has presented is reasonable, and it can be discussed. So, what does that tell you? The ten-point program embedded all the things that Iran wanted, including monitoring of the Strait of Hormuz.”
After breathing hellfire and brimstone over the last few days, has the president done another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), Col Agarwal asked? That impression may gather strength if Trump ends up conceding to Iran during the peace talks. This ceasefire comes across as a Trump climbdown as Col Agarwal argues that most of the U.S. President’s ‘goals’ remain unattainable. ”
“Has Iran’s regime changed? It has not. Has the enriched uranium been taken out? It has not. Is Iran’s nuclear program as obliterated as it was on the 23rd of June last year or the 28th of February this year? Yes but the question is for how long. And let’s not forget, Iran continues to benefit from oil prices.
So while Iran rejoices in its victory and Trump fakes victory, the only unhappy player in the region would be Israel. Col Agarwal believes that Tel Aviv’s military objectives or political objectives have still not been achieved. And they have taken a lot of beating because the sum of tactical victories does not end up in a decisive strategic victory for them.
“That is where Israel is failing. They are getting small, disconnected, independent successes. But it didn’t add up. So they have to do something to devise a strategy where all these small threats end up giving them a bigger picture.”
Tune in for more in this conversation with Col Rajeev Agarwal of the Chintan Research Foundation.
