On this edition of The Gist, Indrani Bagchi, CEO, Ananta Centre, breaks down everything the mainstream narrative is missing about the US-Iran conflict: why India took a week to condole the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, what the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz actually means for your LPG cylinder, your grocery bill, and your paint costs, and why India did the right thing by not jumping into any mediation attempt. This is not a war India is fighting. But as Indrani Bagchi tells StratNews Global, India may feel the impact of this for a while to come.
India’s Awkward Silence
When Iran’s Supreme Leader was assassinated on February 28, India took nearly a week to offer condolences. It’s a delay that did not go unnoticed. Indrani Bagchi says she wasn’t surprised, but was disappointed. “The Ayatollah may not have been India’s best friend but he was a religious leader. He was also the Head of State, and the kind of assassination that killed him should surely be unacceptable in international law,” she says. India’s hesitation reflected the impossible triangle it now inhabits: a civilisational relationship with Iran, a strategic partnership with Israel, and a security dependency on the United States.
The Supply Chain Chokepoint
India is not a party to this war. But it is absorbing its consequences faster than almost any other country. The immediate crisis is LPG. The lines at LPG stations are already visible. What most people don’t yet see is the wave behind it: fertiliser shortages, naphtha disruptions, paint and textile crises. These don’t arrive overnight. Bagchi warns that what India is feeling today is only the beginning. The real economic pain is still weeks and months away, rolling in commodity by commodity.
“Taking policy decisions that make it easier for Indian exporters, Indian importers, manufacturers – all of this, I think, is what is occupying the waking moment of the Indian government,” she says.
Trump’s War Without a Name
The US President has deliberately avoided calling this a war because a war requires Congressional sign-off. He has called it an “excursion,” a “military operation.” His stated objectives shift daily. He has threatened to bomb Iran “back to the stone ages,” then suggested he is close to achieving all military goals, then threatened two to three more weeks of strikes. “My sense is that’s not the way it’s going to be,” says Bagchi. “Because Iran has not ruled out its own retaliation, and it is retaliating against American allies in the Gulf. That’s like mutually assured destruction across the region.”
Why Pakistan Is Mediating, Not India
India has great relationships on multiple sides of this conflict, and yet Pakistan has inserted itself as the mediator between the US, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Bagchi explains why: Pakistan has represented Iran’s interests in Washington since 1981, brokered the US-Taliban talks, and maintains deep ties with both China and the Gulf. India, by contrast, operates on a firm principle that mediation requires being formally invited by both parties. That invitation has not come. Bagchi is unambiguous: India should not have pushed for it.
US-Gulf Ties: A Reset Is Coming
Gulf nations have found themselves caught in a war not of their making. They were aware this was a distinct possibility and by all accounts, Gulf nations had warned the US against a sustained attack on Iran. Gulf states feel they didn’t get the US security cover when they needed it and became a collateral damage in the conflict between the US-Israel and Iran. “So my sense is there will be a reassessment of the strategic relationships with their primary partner, the US. Having said that, Bagchi adds, “Iran has made itself the primary enemy or adversary in the region for a number of these Gulf countries.”
China: The War’s Quiet Winner
“Both China and Russia have done very well in this war.” Russia has been actively assisting Iran with targeting intelligence. Iran, a Belt and Road linchpin, with 90% of its oil flowing to China, is now more dependent on Beijing than ever. The one caveat: a global recession triggered by this war would hurt Chinese exports, and China is not entirely insulated. But relative to every other major power, it is the best positioned.
What Comes After
Bagchi sees a genuine opportunity in the rubble. Indian infrastructure and real estate companies are already being approached for reconstruction work in Israel. Similar opportunities will emerge across the Gulf. Meanwhile, Gulf states will quietly begin diversifying their security partnerships away from a US that left them exposed and India, she argues, has a real opening to deepen its strategic role in the region.
