President Donald Trump had been warned that striking Iran could provoke retaliation against U.S. allies in the Gulf, despite his claim on Monday that Tehran’s response came as a surprise, according to a U.S. official and two sources familiar with intelligence assessments.
Pre-war intelligence assessments did not say that Iran’s response was “a guarantee, but it certainly was on the list of potential outcomes,” said one source, who like the other two requested anonymity to discuss the issue.
Trump Claims Surprise Over Iran Response
The president twice on Monday said that Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait were a surprise, the first time at a Kennedy Center board meeting in the White House.
Trump’s assertion followed other administration claims that have not been backed by U.S. intelligence reporting, such as that Iran would soon have a missile capable of hitting the U.S. homeland and that it would need two to four weeks to make a nuclear bomb and would then use it.
Those allegations and an imminent threat posed by Iran to the U.S. and its forces in the region have been among varying reasons that Trump and some top aides have given to justify his decision to join Israel in launching their air war against Iran on February 28.
Trump was also briefed ahead of the operation that Tehran would likely seek to close the economically vital Strait of Hormuz, according to two other sources familiar with the matter.
Over the past two weeks, Iranian drones and missiles have hit U.S. and allied bases in the Gulf, as well as civilian sites like hotels, airports, and energy facilities. Iran has also largely halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil flows—driving up energy prices.
Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers say briefings revealed no imminent threat justifying the U.S. and Israel launching the war.
Warnings Of A Regional War
The U.S. official said that Trump was briefed before the war that striking Iran could trigger a broader regional conflict that would include Iranian retaliation against Gulf capitals, especially if Tehran saw those countries condoning or actively supporting the U.S. attacks.
Trump repeated his claim later on Monday during a signing event in the Oval Office. He was asked if he was surprised that nobody had briefed him about the risk that Iran would strike back at the Gulf states.
“Nobody, nobody, no, no, no. The greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit,” replied Trump.
The second source familiar with the matter said that before the U.S.-Israeli attacks, the U.S. intelligence community assessed that Israel’s plan to launch strikes aimed at killing top Iranian leaders likely would result in retaliation against U.S. military and diplomatic outposts.
(With inputs from Reuters)
