Chinese air force activity around Taiwan has dropped sharply in recent weeks, with no flights recorded over the past week, a sudden halt to what had been daily military manoeuvres that may indicate Beijing is recalibrating its pressure on Taipei.
China has dispatched 460 military planes – from fighter jets to drones – into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone so far this year, a 46.5% drop compared with a year ago, according to Taiwan government data compiled by research group Secure Taiwan Associate Corporation (STA).
In February, Taiwan detected 190 such Chinese aircraft, the lowest monthly tally since its defence ministry began publishing detailed daily figures in 2022 on what Taipei sees an ongoing pressure campaign by Beijing which has been honing its ability to attack the island, including with war games.
Possible Diplomatic Calculations
Chinese President Xi Jinping may be toning down visible pressure tactics to create a better atmosphere ahead of his anticipated meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the end of the month, two Taiwanese officials said.
Facing Trump, “Beijing might be trying to create a false impression: I am peaceful, I am moving toward peace, so you should stop selling weapons to Taiwan,” a senior Taiwan security official told Reuters, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
China, which considers the island its own territory, has not dispatched any military planes near Taiwan since February 27, marking an unprecedented six-day lull in such operations that coincided with the war in Iran, according to Tristan Tang, a researcher at STA.
Unlike this extended lull, past pauses were brief, usually tied to typhoons or Chinese holidays.
Military Purge and Strategic Pause
Another interpretation is China’s ongoing military corruption purge.
Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow at Taiwan’s top military think tank, the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, said the purge could be the “primary reason”, with Chinese forces undergoing changes to their command structure that are likely undermining overall readiness.
A Taiwan defence official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, suggested Beijing is using the lull to digest lessons from recent large drills.
However, China’s navy and coast guard remain active, according to Taiwan’s defence ministry, showing Beijing had only dialled down the more politically sensitive air activity.
(With inputs from Reuters)
