China’s influence in Bangladesh, boosted by the 2024 ouster of New Delhi-aligned leader Sheikh Hasina, is likely to deepen after this week’s election, although politicians and analysts say India is too large a neighbour to be sidelined completely.
Bangladesh votes on February 12 and the two frontrunner parties have historically had far cooler ties with India than Hasina did during her uninterrupted 15-year rule from 2009. Her Awami League party is now banned and she is in self-imposed exile in New Delhi.
Meanwhile, China has stepped up its investment and diplomatic outreach in Dhaka, most recently signing a defence deal to build a drone factory near Bangladesh’s border with India. Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen has held frequent meetings with Bangladeshi politicians and officials, discussing infrastructure projects worth billions.
“People in Bangladesh see India as complicit with Sheikh Hasina’s crimes,” said Humaiun Kobir, foreign affairs adviser to leading prime ministerial candidate Tarique Rahman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Rahman, however, struck a more conciliatory note, saying: “We’ll try to have friendship with all countries, but of course, protecting the interests of my people and my country.”
China has been Bangladesh’s largest trading partner for more than a decade, with annual bilateral trade hovering around $18 billion. Chinese companies have also invested heavily since Hasina’s exit.
“China is steadily building its influence both in the open and behind the scenes, benefiting from the crisis in India-Bangladesh relations,” said Constantino Xavier of the Centre for Social and Economic Progress.
Analysts say deeper China ties do not mean severing India relations. “Bangladesh needs both China and India… any party that comes to power will not be imprudent enough to ignore India,” said Dhaka University’s Lailufar Yasmin.
Bordered by India on three sides, Bangladesh relies on New Delhi for trade, transit and security cooperation, even as political tensions reshape regional alignments ahead of the vote.
(With inputs from Reuters)
