Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election victory on Sunday has solidified domestic support for her hawkish security policies, signalling a major expansion in Japan’s defence posture. Her Liberal Democratic Party captured 352 of 465 seats in the lower house, a commanding majority that leaves little opposition to her agenda.
Takaichi announced she would “work flat out to deliver” on a programme that includes building military capabilities sufficient to deter threats from China, particularly in areas near Taiwan. Analysts say her victory reflects Japanese public backing for a more assertive security stance.
Rising Tensions with China
Takaichi’s comments in November on responding militarily to a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan triggered a diplomatic backlash from Beijing. China warned Japan against “resurgence of militarism” and imposed economic measures, including travel boycotts and export restrictions on rare earths.
Kevin Maher, a former U.S. diplomat, said: “President Xi Jinping will understand her strong stance. Japan’s forward-leaning defence policy could influence regional calculations.” Taiwanese officials also praised Takaichi’s win as a show that Japan will not be intimidated by China’s threats.
Expanding Japan’s Security Strategy
Takaichi has already raised defence spending to 2% of GDP and plans further increases, including easing restrictions on arms exports and encouraging joint defence projects with allies. Her administration is preparing a new national security strategy, expected to be finalised by the end of the year, with potential spending growth to around 3% of GDP, according to sources.
Japan’s ambitions include bolstering munitions stockpiles, acquiring drones, and preparing for a prolonged conflict scenario, taking lessons from the Ukraine war. Analysts caution that her defence plans may be tempered by domestic spending commitments and tax cuts.
Constitutional Change in Sight
With her party holding more than two-thirds of the lower house, Takaichi could propose a constitutional amendment recognising the Self-Defence Forces as a formal military. Approval would require a two-thirds majority in the upper house and a public referendum. While not guaranteed, analysts say this election provides her the strongest opportunity yet to pursue such a long-debated goal.
Jeffrey Hornung of the RAND Corporation commented: “It’s not a slam dunk, but the lower house majority gives her the best chance any prime minister has had to advance Japan’s security and defence ambitions.”
with inputs from Reuters
