Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the Maldives in July marked a shift in relations that began on a rocky note after President Mohamed Muizzu took office in September 2023, according to Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy, Associate Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme’s Neighbourhood Studies Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation.
Speaking to StratNewsGlobal, Shivamurthy said that Muizzu’s initial policies focused on reducing India’s presence, strengthening ties with China, and broadening partnerships, influenced by domestic politics and the “India Out” campaign. Over the past year, however, ties have been recalibrated, with both countries adopting a pragmatic, issue-based approach.
“No nation puts all its eggs in one basket. Despite closer ties with China, Muizzu is diversifying relations. Economic constraints also leave him little choice. Indian and Chinese debts are maturing, and he will have to balance both,” Shivamurthy said.
According to him, Modi’s visit allowed India to reaffirm its influence in the region, while for the Maldives, it provided an economic lifeline and space to manage financial challenges. The visit also opened avenues for deeper cooperation across sectors.
Maldivian politics remain divided, with the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) traditionally aligned with India, while Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (PNC) is seen as more conservative and open to external players, particularly China. Shivamurthy noted that New Delhi’s outreach to multiple parties during the visit signalled its intent to build a resilient, cross-party partnership.
China’s expanding naval and military presence in the Indian Ocean, through port projects, patrols and Belt and Road-linked infrastructure, continues to concern New Delhi. The Maldives, Shivamurthy said, is navigating this environment by balancing ties to secure sovereignty and economic stability.
“As competition in the Indo-Pacific intensifies, regional players still look to India for leadership,” he said. “For the Maldives, it is natural to diversify ties and safeguard sovereignty, but going forward, Male will need to remain sensitive to India’s red lines while using its balanced policy to secure its own interests.”
Research Associate at StratNewsGlobal, A keen observer of #China and Foreign Affairs. Writer, Weibo Trends, Analyst.
Twitter: @resham_sng
