Could Friday be the Big Beautiful Day for Donald J Trump? The day when he walks into history with the Nobel Prize for delivering peace in Ukraine.
That’s a big if. At this point there’s a lot we don’t know. Are the big boys, Trump and Vladimir Putin, meeting because much of the heavy lifting has already been done by officials and diplomats on both sides?
If that is the case, it means they are expected to resolve the nitty-gritty of who or which side gets what. That could be difficult.
As Nandan Unnikrishnan of the Observer Research Foundation says, “It gets murky because this is not just about the US and Russia, this is about Ukraine which has to sign on a peace deal. Trump may try to bulldoze his way but it won’t be easy.”
Unnikrishnan believes that Putin has a weak hand, in that he wants to end the war but on his terms and knows he will have to give up something. So even while Russia will remain in Ukraine, Putin will not walk away entirely happy.
At the end of the day, Putin wants peace, and a deal that brings his country back into the comity of nations. It will be highly diminished Russia, one that is not America’s equal. Its footprint would be heavily circumscribed, whether in the southern Caucasus or the Middle East.
Putin also wants to be allowed back into the international Swift system, and an end to sanctions as the economy is under strain. So it’s in Putin’s interest to ensure Trump doesn’t lose patience and walk out.
“In the event there’s no deal but both sides agree to work on certain proposals based perhaps on something tangible Trump offers, then homework will have to be done,” says Unnikrishnan.
A former diplomat with long experience of Europe, says Trump will have to tell the Europeans that there will be no more arms supplies for Ukraine, and no question of NATO membership. This was a commitment made way back in 2008 by then president George Bush at the NATO Bucharest Summit. It kept getting rolled over and Ukraine still remains outside the security alliance.
Then there’s Ukrainian President Zelensky, who has already warned he will settle for nothing less than a complete withdrawal by the Russians. But withdrawal is not on Putin’s agenda, not after all that blood, sweat and treasure he has expended in the last three years.
So Zelensky may have to settle for a smaller Ukraine, which means giving up land to the Russians. That would spell the end of his hopes of continuing as president.
