The ouster of the Sheikh Hasina government has created a massive upheaval in Bangladesh. There has been political instability, rise in radicalism, atrocities against Hindus and much more. And all this is bad news for India. Add to it China and Pakistan fishing in troubled waters.
China’s Growing Influence In Bangladesh
China has been increasing its investments in Bangladesh, particularly in infrastructure, energy and telecommunications. Bangladesh has been an active partner in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Bangladesh’s total debt to China stands at around $17.5 billion. And it may well find itself in the Chinese debt trap, just like Sri Lanka did.
Beijing is reviving ties with members of the earlier BNP government. Ditto with political elements that are now influential under the caretaker regime. It has taken a cautious yet opportunistic and strategic approach. The idea is to leverage the political instability in Bangladesh.
Projecting Soft Power
China has been making concerted efforts to win over the hearts and minds of young Bangladeshis. It provides financial aid to support sectors like education, technology and infrastructure. Additionally, it offers travel assistance and scholarships for Bangladeshi students to study in China. It’s part of a broader strategy to influence developing countries like Bangladesh through soft power.
The Overseas Chinese Association in Bangladesh regularly organises human resource cooperation fairs in Dhaka. These aim at building long-term partnerships between Chinese companies and local universities. The events allow students and teachers from Bangladeshi universities to connect with Chinese enterprises.
The Defence Route
According to Swedish think tank SIPRI, China gave 72% of the weapons Bangladesh needed between 2019 and 2023. Moreover, Beijing played a key role in constructing “BNS Sheikh Hasina” naval base south of Chittagong. The base inaugurated in 2023 can accommodate six submarines and eight warships. Beijing also supplied two submarines (BNS Nabajatra and BNS Joyjatra) and a significant proportion of frigates and corvettes to the Bangladeshi navy. There’s buzz that China would provide training on how to operate the submarines and the new base.
Economic Dependence Of Bangladesh
China has been Bangladesh’s largest trading partner for over a decade now, with the volume crossing $25 billion. According to Chinese official media, there are 700 Chinese-funded companies in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh is heavily dependent on China to run its textile sector, which has put the former on the global map. Bangladesh exports around $45 billion of textiles every year; that’s 80% of its total exports. Over 70% of raw materials for manufacturing fibre clothing comes from China.
The Pakistan Factor
Pakistan was reportedly involved in Bangladesh’s internal politics which led to the collapse of the Awami League government. It is seemingly seeking stronger relations with Bangladesh through diplomatic initiatives and economic trade. Pakistan announced a new visa policy that includes Bangladesh among 126 nations whose citizens can travel to Pakistan on free visa. Muhammad Yunus and Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif met twice last year which indicates Pakistan’s motive quite evidently.
As per reports, the Pakistani envoy to Dhaka has regularly met leaders of BNP, Jamaat-E-Islami and other radical individuals and groups since the fall of the Hasina regime.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh has expressed keen interest in increasing imports of agro-products from Pakistan officially after the next government is formed.
Reports suggest Bangladesh is preparing for a joint naval exercise with the Pakistani Navy in the Bay of Bengal. In addition, Bangladesh will also participate in a multi-nation naval exercise to be held in Karachi in February 2025.
Way Forward For India
Prime Minister Modi has spoken with Muhammad Yunus and extended India’s support in restoration of peace. He has also called upon the latter to uphold the rights of minorities and ensure their safety. A five-member committee led by a senior Border Security Force (BSF) official has been set up to communicate with Bangladesh authorities to ensure the safety and security of Indian nationals, Hindus and other minority communities living there.
India should bolster security measures along the border and in areas with significant Bangladeshi expatriate population to address potential spillover effects.
It should ensure that Pakistan and China do not take advantage of the Bangladesh crisis to harm India. Using its geopolitical influence by involving the U.S., the UK and European nations to support Bangladesh’s economic stabilisation and counter extremist influences is another means.
India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy has confined its engagement with a narrow polity, constraining its options whenever there’s a change in government in a neighbouring country.
While remaining vigilant of the situation in Bangladesh, India should fulfil its economic and infrastructure commitments.
Since the Bangladeshi Army has played a defining role in the crisis and could remain a key factor, India must strengthen military-to-military ties.
It is important for India to wait and watch as far as economic ties with Bangladesh are concerned. One wrong move and China is waiting to seize the opportunity.
