China on Thursday announced a new five-year plan to reduce carbon emissions by expanding renewable energy and limiting coal use, but some analysts said the targets were underwhelming.
Under the plan, China aims to reduce its carbon intensity, or carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product, by 17% from 2026 to 2030, not enough to meet its pledge under the Paris climate agreement of a 65% cut from 2005 to 2030, analysts said.
The new plan did not, as international observers hoped it would, set a goal for total emissions to head lower before 2030.
During the five-year plan that ended last year, China reduced its carbon intensity by just 12%, missing its previous target of 18%. That failure and its modest new decarbonisation goal are unlikely to inspire other countries to set their own ambitious emissions-reductions targets, analysts said.
Under its new program, Beijing outlined annual targets for reaching 30 million metric tons of coal replaced by renewable energy in five years but did not impose limits on coal consumption. The country is rapidly expanding its wind and solar power capacity.
Policy Shift
With the new plan, Beijing has shifted focus from controlling the energy intensity of its economy to carbon intensity.
The so-called “dual control” system will introduce industry, company and project-level carbon emissions controls, according to the five-year plan.
In 2026, China plans to cut its carbon intensity by around 3.8%, according to a report from China’s top state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). China has said it expects that its carbon emissions will peak before 2030.
China’s carbon emissions fell 0.3% last year thanks to reductions in the transport, power, cement and metals sectors, but it is not yet clear whether emissions will go up again before peaking.
Focus On Renewable Growth, Not Targets
While China has fallen short of some short-term climate targets, Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute in the U.S., said renewable energy technology will help China bend its emissions curve downward.
President Xi Jinping told the United Nations in September that his country would expand wind and solar power capacity, already the world leader, six fold from 2020 levels by 2035. Based on current trends, China is on pace to exceed that target.
In the next five years, China will introduce minimum quotas for renewable energy consumption, according to the NDRC, as well as measures to phase out outdated coal-fired equipment and facilities and reach a peak in coal consumption. Previously, China had set out to phase down its coal use.
(With inputs from Reuters)
