U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public,” said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss U.S. intelligence findings.
The latest report was completed within the last few days, the source said.
With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, President Donald Trump has suggested he will end the biggest U.S. military operation since 2003 “soon.” But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched.
The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion of Iran’s clerical leadership despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the U.S. and Israeli strikes.
Israeli officials in closed discussions also have acknowledged there is no certainty the war will lead to the clerical government’s collapse, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.
The sources stressed that the situation on the ground is fluid and that the dynamics inside Iran could change.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
Shifting Objectives
Since launching their campaign, the United States and Israel have struck air defences, nuclear facilities and senior officials in Iran, killing several top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Despite the losses, U.S. intelligence assessments indicate the IRGC and interim leaders who took over after the death of Ali Khamenei still control the country. The Assembly of Experts has since named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader.
Intelligence Suggests Kurds Lack Firepower To Fight Iran
According to reports Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq consulted with the U.S. about how and whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country.
Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services there, allowing Iranians to rise up against the government.
Abdullah Mohtadi, the head of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview on Wednesday that the parties are highly organized inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive U.S. support.
Mohtadi said he has received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases and barracks out of fear of U.S. and Israeli strikes.
“We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.
But recent U.S. intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.
The intelligence indicates that the groups lack the firepower and numbers, they said.
The Iranian Kurdish groups have in recent days asked senior officials in Washington and U.S. lawmakers for the U.S. to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.
But Trump said on Saturday that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran.
(With inputs from Reuters)
