By Myanmar’s standards, this is probably par for the course: the military junta has declared victory in the elections it is holding in the territories it controls. The last round of voting will happen only on Jan 25th, but clearly these details don’t worry the generals.
India’s former ambassador to Myanmar Gautam Mukhopadhaya, says the junta probably believes it will gain legitimacy in the eyes of the world by holding an election, even if it is seriously flawed.
“China and Russia are the two principal backers of the Myanmar regime right now. So I think they (junta) sensed rightly, I would say, a geopolitical opportunity to try and sell this election as a way of legitimising themselves. They can count on China and Russia – the two most important veto wielding powers at the UN Security Council – to legitimise this election,” he told Stratnews Global during an exclusive interaction.
The military had earlier planned to hold the elections in 2023. However, its position got substantially weakened by then as ethnic rebel groups seized government-held territory.
Mukhopadhaya says the junta is also expecting India’s support post the elections as that would mean recognition by a large democratic nation.
“They probably hope that a country like India will fall in line. If India falls in line it will be very significant because unlike China and Russia, India is a you know multi-party democracy and a federal democracy or at least a federal type democracy. So that would be a big way for them to legitimize themselves.”
The Myanmar military is fighting the elections through its civilian proxy – Union Solidarity and Development Party. Once in place, the junta hopes it will be able to procure more arms, more fuels, more investments which will enable it to launch a “stronger offensive” against the ethnic rebel groups.
India’s Concern
For India, which has backed the election and also urged that it be “free, fair and inclusive”, is hopeful the poll will see some stability return to a sensitive border state. It is also wary about China’s influence in Myanmar.
“The Kyaukphyu Port has been known, since colonial times, to be the single best natural harbor in the Bay of Bengal,” Mukhopadhaya said, “And the Chinese have a gas pipeline. The Chinese have an oil pipeline.”
He pointed out that the Chinese were also handed over a special economic zone (SEZ) in Kyaukphyu in 2015 during the military’s previous rule.
“While we join the noise on the presence of Chinese in South China Sea, and we have projected a great interest in the Quad and Indo-Pacific, the reality is that through these gas pipelines, through these oil pipelines, through the SEZ and the Kyaukphyu harbour, the Chinese are positioning themselves in the Bay of Bengal,” he warned.
By virtue of having these assets in the Bay of Bengal, China will be bound to “securitize” the region, he said.
For India the prospect is worrying. The Sittwe Port which India has been developing in that country has a “limited draft” compared to the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port being developed by China. And the Kaladan multi-modal project has been stalled by the civil war that has engulfed the country.
