Cuba’s worsening electricity shortages are increasingly being seen not as a temporary disruption, but as the outcome of entrenched structural vulnerabilities compounded by geopolitical pressure.
While recent United States actions affecting Venezuelan oil exports have intensified fuel shortages, analysts say the roots of the crisis lie in Cuba’s long-standing dependence on imported oil, aging infrastructure, and limited access to global finance.
Oil accounts for more than 80 per cent of Cuba’s electricity generation, with nearly half of that fuel imported. According to Dr Girisanker SB Nair of the Indian Council of World Affairs, this heavy reliance has left the island exposed to volatile prices, supply disruptions, and high transportation costs, problems magnified by decades of underinvestment and recurring fuel shortages. The result has been rolling blackouts, industrial slowdowns, and rising economic strain.
To manage the immediate crunch, the government of Cuba has imposed emergency measures under Decree-Law 110, including planned power cuts, suspension of non-essential public services, and reductions in energy subsidies. While these steps have helped balance short-term supply and demand, officials acknowledge they do not address the deeper need for infrastructure modernisation and energy diversification.
External assistance has provided only partial relief. Emergency oil shipments from Mexico and Russia have eased immediate shortages, but financial constraints have limited Havana’s ability to access larger credit lines. A €1.2 billion Russian facility intended for upgrading thermoelectric plants remains largely untapped due to Cuba’s inability to meet upfront financing requirements, underscoring its deteriorating fiscal position.
India has emerged as a consistent development partner despite the constraints imposed by U.S. sanctions. New Delhi has extended support through technology transfer, development assistance, and lines of credit aimed at boosting renewable energy capacity. India has also invited Cuba to participate in initiatives such as the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure and the Global Biofuel Alliance, signalling a broader push for South–South cooperation and long-term resilience.
Officials at India’s Ministry of External Affairs have said they are closely monitoring developments, reflecting New Delhi’s interest in Cuba’s stability and its wider engagement with the Global South.
Sanctions remain a central factor shaping the crisis. The long-running U.S. embargo has restricted Cuba’s access to international finance and deterred foreign investment in energy infrastructure. While renewable energy is widely viewed as a viable long-term solution, progress has been slow due to limited capital, climate risks, and regulatory hurdles created by sanctions.
Cuban officials and commentators frame the power crisis as both an economic challenge and a question of sovereignty. Havana has prioritised essential services under a multisectoral contingency plan and accelerated renewable projects, aiming to raise clean energy’s share of generation from 3 per cent to 10 per cent within a year.
As international pressure mounts, Cuba’s electricity crisis is increasingly viewed as a test case for how small, sanctioned economies navigate structural reform, external constraints, and shifting geopolitical alignments in a more multipolar world.
