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In 2026 India Will Seek To Balance The Turbulence Of 2025
The New Year, diplomatic sources say, is expected to be a period of intense leader-level engagement for India with Europe, the Americas, and the Global South.
Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz is likely to kick off the diplomatic engagement when he lands in Delhi on January 12, the sources said, confirming that the visit will focus on defence (German submarines for India), expanding cooperation in green hydrogen, manufacturing and skilled workforce mobility.
Sources said Germany had recently announced new commitments amounting to “almost 1.3 billion euros, primarily in the form of concessional loans, across the key areas of climate and energy, sustainable urban development, green urban mobility, and sustainable management of natural resources”.
This was following the “successful conclusion” of high level official negotiations on development cooperation 2025 with India.
Later, on January 26, India’s Republic Day celebrations are expected to see European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa. Their visit, officials said, would point to the long-pending India–European Union Free Trade Agreement reaching a “decisive stage”.
Ahead of an expected India-Arab Summit in New Delhi later in the year, officials from 22 Arab countries are coming to India for the 4th India-Arab Senior Officials Meeting (IASOM). The meeting is scheduled to take place on Jan 31, 2026.
AI Diplomacy
Delhi will host the Artificial Intelligence Impact Summit from February 15-20th, which is expected to bring heads of government and senior leaders from 15 to 20 countries, positioning India as a convenor on global AI governance, ethical innovation, and inclusive technological growth.
Among those expected to attend are French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, alongside leaders from the Indo-Pacific and the Global South.
Diplomatic sources say the presence of multiple European leaders reflects growing alignment with India’s push for human-centric AI frameworks, as well as commercial interest in India’s rapidly expanding digital economy.
Beyond policy discussions, the summit is expected to yield bilateral meetings focused on AI cooperation, semiconductor supply chains, defence technologies, and talent mobility.
Focus on Americas, Global South
March is expected to see intensified outreach to Latin America, with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva having publicly stated his intention to visit India.
Talks are likely to focus on energy security, food supply chains, defence cooperation, and a substantive expansion of the India–MERCOSUR Preferential Trade Agreement, with more product lines expected to be included.
Uruguay’s top leadership is also expected in New Delhi with discussions likely to centre on cooperation in drones, satellite manufacturing, artificial intelligence and Antarctic scientific research.
Estonia’s President, Alar Karis, is expected to visit India in early 2026 following recent strong political engagements.
Canada, following the stabilisation of bilateral ties in 2025, is also expected to re-engage at the leadership level, with critical minerals, trade diversification, and nuclear energy cooperation on the agenda.
Trade Talks
Indian trade negotiators are aiming to convert the dense diplomatic calendar into economic outcomes. After concluding agreements with the UK, Oman and New Zealand in 2025, New Delhi is now prioritising progress with the European Union, Gulf Cooperation Council, Australia (upgrading ECTA to CECA), ASEAN, and the Eurasian Economic Union.
Officials say the early months of 2026 offer a narrow political window to advance these talks before domestic and international electoral cycles begin to complicate negotiations.
The urgency surrounding early 2026 diplomacy is rooted in the turbulence of 2025. Against this backdrop, Indian policymakers are approaching 2026 with tempered expectations. The emphasis, officials say, is on diversifying partnerships, reducing exposure to external shocks, and securing tangible outcomes rather than headline diplomacy alone.
France Plans Ban on Social Media for Under-15s and Mobile Phones in High Schools
France is preparing to ban children under the age of 15 from using social media platforms and to prohibit mobile phones in high schools from September 2026, local media reported on Wednesday. The proposals reflect growing public concern over the effects of social media and screen time on children’s mental health and behaviour.
According to Le Monde and France Info, President Emmanuel Macron’s government is expected to introduce draft legislation for legal and technical checks in early January. While Macron did not mention the initiative in his New Year’s Eve address, he pledged to “protect our children and teenagers from social media and screens.”
The presidential palace and the prime minister’s office declined to comment on the reports, but the move aligns with Macron’s repeated warnings that social media contributes to youth violence and social instability.
Extending Restrictions to High Schools
Mobile phones have been banned in France’s primary and middle schools since 2018. The new measure would extend this prohibition to high schools, where pupils aged 15 to 18 are currently allowed to use their phones outside class hours. Under the French education system, pupils aged 11 to 15 attend middle school.
France had already passed a law in 2023 requiring social media companies to obtain parental consent for users under 15 to create accounts. However, enforcement has faced obstacles due to difficulties verifying users’ ages and ensuring compliance across platforms.
If adopted, the new restrictions would mirror recent moves by Australia, which introduced a world-first national ban on social media access for children under 16 in December, covering platforms such as Facebook, Snapchat, TikTok and YouTube.
Macron’s Push for EU-Wide Regulation
President Macron has also called for broader regulation at the European Union level. In June, following a fatal stabbing at a school in eastern France, he urged the EU to establish a minimum age of 15 for accessing social media. The European Parliament echoed the call in November, urging member states to address the link between online exposure and rising adolescent mental health problems.
Despite such appeals, age restrictions remain a national prerogative within the EU, leading to varied rules across member states. Macron argues that consistent regulation would provide stronger protection and make enforcement easier across borders.
Political Context and Public Support
The legislative effort comes as Macron faces significant domestic challenges following the 2024 parliamentary elections, which resulted in a hung parliament and triggered one of France’s deepest political crises in decades. Nevertheless, the proposed social media restrictions could prove popular with voters.
A Harris Interactive survey conducted in 2024 showed that 73% of respondents supported banning social media access for children under 15. Analysts say the policy could help Macron regain some political footing by focusing on a widely shared concern about the digital welfare of young people.
As the debate unfolds, France joins a growing number of countries rethinking how to regulate minors’ access to social media balancing the benefits of connectivity with the urgent need to protect children’s mental health and safety.
with inputs from Reuters
Hong Kong: 21 Arrested For Corruption In Building Renovation Crackdown
Hong Kong has stepped up a crackdown on corruption linked to building renovation following a fire in late November that ripped through seven high-rise towers and killed more than 160 people.
John Lee, the city’s leader, last month set up an independent committee to investigate the fire and the construction industry, and determine whether there was any bid-rigging in the award of contracts.
The Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) said in a statement that it conducted enforcement operations last week against a triad-linked corruption syndicate associated with building renovation.
The 21 arrested included middlemen, project consultants, project contractors, and members of the owners’ corporation of the two housing estates, the agency added.
In one of the estates, the contractor involved was suspected of bribing the project consultant and some members of the owners’ corporation to obtain a project contract worth HK$33 million ($4.24 million).
In the other estate, the middlemen allegedly collected instruments of proxy, or authorisation tickets, from homeowners “by corrupt means” in an attempt to manipulate votes and win future renovation contracts. It did not elaborate.
“Building maintenance is closely related to the public and involves multiple stakeholders. The ICAC has always attached great importance to corruption in building maintenance,” the statement said.
The two estates targeted in last week’s operation were in the Kwun Tong district in eastern Kowloon and not related to Wang Fuk Court, the site of the fire that broke out on November 26.
The ICAC has arrested at least 11 people in a corruption probe into renovation work at Wang Fuk Court.
Residents reacted with anger to the inferno, which took nearly two days to extinguish. Authorities have said substandard building materials used in renovating the high-rise blocks fuelled the fire.
(with inputs from Reuters)
Kim Jong Un’s Daughter Ju Ae Appears at Mausoleum Amid Succession Speculation
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s daughter, Ju Ae, who is widely seen as a potential heir, made her first public visit to the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, state media photographs showed on Friday. The visit, conducted on January 1 alongside her parents, marked a significant new step in Ju Ae’s growing public prominence and further fuelled speculation about her role in North Korea’s dynastic succession.
State media images released by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) showed Ju Ae walking between Kim Jong Un and his wife, Ri Sol Ju, as they paid their respects to Kim’s grandfather and father founding leader Kim Il Sung and former leader Kim Jong Il. Senior officials also attended the ceremony at the Kumsusan mausoleum, where the bodies of both late leaders lie in state.
Growing Signs of Succession Preparation
Analysts say Ju Ae’s inclusion in the high-profile visit may signal her father’s calculated move to introduce her more formally to the North Korean elite and public ahead of the upcoming ruling Workers’ Party Congress. Cheong Seong-chang, vice president at the Sejong Institute, said the appearance was “a symbolic gesture” pointing to possible steps to formalise her future role at the meeting.
Over the past three years, Ju Ae has made increasingly visible appearances in official events from military parades to state banquets often positioned at her father’s side. South Korea’s intelligence agency and several North Korea watchers have interpreted these public outings as part of Kim’s long-term effort to legitimise her as his successor in a fourth-generation leadership line.
Building the Image of a “Stable Family”
Hong Min, a senior analyst at South Korea’s Korea Institute for National Unification, noted that Pyongyang has been using these family appearances to project stability. “By showing Kim’s wife and daughter together at key events, North Korea is portraying an image of a stable, confident leadership,” he said.
Ju Ae, believed to have been born in the early 2010s, also attended this year’s New Year celebrations and accompanied her father on a September trip to Beijing her first known overseas appearance. North Korea has not disclosed her age, but observers estimate she is about 13 years old.
Questions Remain Over Formal Succession
Despite growing attention, Seoul’s Unification Ministry cautioned against premature assumptions about Ju Ae’s status. A ministry spokesperson declined to comment directly, while another official said it was “too early to say she is a successor,” noting her age and lack of any official position.
Hong Min echoed that assessment, suggesting Kim’s other children could still play undisclosed roles. “It’s practically impossible to publicly designate Kim Ju Ae, who is believed to have just turned 13, as the successor when she’s not even old enough to join the Workers’ Party,” he said.
Kim’s visit to the Kumsusan mausoleum reinforced his family’s dynastic continuity a hallmark of North Korea’s political identity since its founding. Whether Ju Ae’s appearance was symbolic or substantive remains uncertain, but her steady rise in visibility suggests that succession planning may already be underway behind the scenes.
with inputs from Reuters
China Imposes Tax On Condoms, Contraceptives To Spur Birth Rate
China removed a three-decade-old tax exemption on contraceptive drugs and devices from January 1 in new steps to spur a flagging birth rate.
Condoms and contraceptive pills now incur a value-added tax of 13%, the standard rate for most consumer goods.
The move comes as Beijing struggles to boost birth rates in the world’s second-largest economy. China’s population fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, and experts have cautioned that the downturn will continue.
China has now exempted childcare subsidies from personal income tax and rolled out an annual childcare subsidy last year, following a series of “fertility-friendly” measures in 2024, such as urging colleges and universities to provide “love education” to portray marriage, love, fertility, and family in a positive light.
Top leaders again pledged last month at the annual Central Economic Work Conference to promote “positive marriage and childbearing attitudes” to stabilise birth rates.
One-Child Policy
China’s birth rates have been falling for decades as a result of the one-child policy China implemented from 1980 to 2015, and rapid urbanisation.
The high cost of childcare and education, as well as job uncertainty and a slowing economy, have also discouraged many young Chinese from getting married and starting a family.
The CNN reports that January 1 marks 10 years since China scrapped its notorious “one-child” policy, after the government realized that a falling birth rate threatened to derail the growth of the world’s second-largest economy.
But the landmark change – and a raft of other measures to encourage couples to have more kids – have failed to boost the population.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has evoked the need for “population security” and made the “development of a high-quality population” a national priority. Analysts expect more policies or incentives to support births and marriage in the year ahead.
But many in China say boosting birth rates means addressing core issues like high youth unemployment, the high cost of raising children, and what’s seen as an unfair burden of child-raising on women, reports CNN.
(with inputs from Reuters)
Violence Escalates In Peru As Miners Targeted
On New Year’s Eve, an attack on informal miners in Peru’s northern Pataz district left at least three people dead, according to local officials and a mining company. The incident marks the latest in a string of assaults targeting small-scale gold miners in the Andean country.
Mining firm Poderosa said its security personnel had approached the area after hearing gunshots, and found three people shot dead, adding they had likely entered illegally to extract materials.
The mining company said police had said no one was kidnapped or missing, contradicting earlier statements on TV by Pataz Mayor Aldo Marino, who told local TV that police had reported seven people missing.
Marino said reports from other people nearby suggested the death toll could be higher.
Local prosecutors said on social media they had found 11 shell casings at the scene and launched an investigation. Poderosa said police had arrested two people.
The police did not confirm the attack and government officials were not available to comment.
Gold Mining and Illegal Operations
Pataz has become Peru’s main gold-producing area, thanks mainly to small-scale artisan or informal mines, which operate under temporary government permits called REINFO.
Thousands of permits are however exploited by illegal miners who, according to police and industry sources, steal the output from other miners working together with criminal gangs.
Peru’s government in December extended the REINFO permits for one year, the fifth such extension in a decade. In July, it kicked over 50,000 small-scale miners off the scheme, more than half, keeping just over 30,000 for a formalization process.
Peru exported $15.5 billion worth of gold in 2024, a sharp jump from $11 billion registered the previous year. About 40% is of illegal origin, according to estimates from local industry and the country’s financial watchdog.
Police reported 13 miners killed in the same district in May last year as criminal gangs sought to grow their control in the area.
(With inputs from Reuters)
Drone Data Sparks Clash Over Alleged Attack On Putin
On Thursday, a senior Russian military chief handed to a U.S. military attaché with what he claimed was part of a Ukrainian drone containing data which proved that the Ukrainian military had targeted a Russian presidential residence earlier this week.
Moscow accused Kyiv on Monday of trying to strike a residence of President Vladimir Putin in Russia’s northern Novgorod region with 91 long-range attack drones. It said Russia would review its negotiating position in ongoing talks with the U.S. on ending the Ukraine war.
Ukraine and Western countries have disputed Russia’s account of the alleged attempted strike.
Evidence and Official Statements
A video posted on the Russian Defence Ministry’s Telegram channel showed Admiral Igor Kostyukov, head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of Russia’s Armed Forces, handing to the U.S. attaché what he described as the controlling mechanism of a drone found among downed fragments.
“The decryption of the content of the memory of the navigation controller of the drones carried out by specialists of Russia’s special services confirms without question that the target of the attack was the complex of buildings of the Russian president’s residence in Novgorod region,” Kostyukov said.
“We presume that this measure will do away with any questions and allow for the truth to be established.”
The Ministry had earlier posted a statement on Telegram saying its findings would be turned over to the United States.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that U.S. national security officials had found Ukraine did not target Putin or one of his residences in a drone strike. Reuters could not immediately verify the report.
U.S. and Ukrainian Response
U.S. President Donald Trump initially expressed sympathy for the Russian charge, telling reporters on Monday that Putin had informed him of the alleged incident and that he was “very angry” about it.
By Wednesday, Trump appeared more sceptical, sharing on social media a New York Post editorial accusing Russia of blocking peace in Ukraine.
Ukraine has denied carrying out such an attack and described the accusation as part of a Russian disinformation campaign meant to drive a wedge between Kyiv and Washington after a weekend meeting between Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
(With inputs from Reuters)
China, South Korea Seek Reset As Xi Hosts Lee
Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to welcome South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on a state visit beginning Sunday, underscoring Beijing’s bid to deepen ties with Seoul at a time of heightened tensions with Japan over Taiwan.
The visit marks the second meeting between Xi and Lee in just two months, an unusually short interval that signals China’s keen interest in reinforcing ties with Seoul and boosting economic collaboration and tourism, analysts say.
Xi’s invitation to Lee for a state visit from Sunday is a calculated move aimed at deepening bilateral relations especially before the South Korean leader visits Japan, analysts say.
The pivot follows the two countries’ strained relations under Lee’s predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol, due to his closer alignment with Washington and Tokyo, as well as criticism of China’s handling of Taiwan.
U.S. Alliance And North Korea
Still, China and South Korea face complex issues as China challenges U.S., South Korea’s major ally in the region, and as nuclear-armed North Korea remains unpredictable.
China is North Korea’s major ally and economic lifeline.
U.S. officials have signalled a plan to make those U.S. forces more flexible to respond to other threats, such as defending Taiwan and checking China’s growing military reach.
Lee’s agenda with Xi includes persuading China to facilitate dialogue with North Korea, experts said.
Tech, Supply Chains And K-Pop
Lee’s visit to Beijing is expected to address cooperation in areas including critical minerals, supply chain and green industries, his office said earlier.
The visit may also foster partnerships on artificial intelligence and advanced technologies, experts said.
China’s Huawei Technologies plans to roll out the Ascend 950 AI chips in South Korea next year, aiming to provide an alternative to Nvidia for Korean firms, Huawei’s South Korea CEO Balian Wang told a press conference last month.
Beijing’s ban on K-pop since the 2017 U.S. missile defense deployment looms, with SM Entertainment’s CEO joining Lee’s business delegation, local media report.
(With inputs from Reuters)
The New India Moment: Jobs, Growth And The Road To 2047
India enters 2026 at a pivotal moment. Abject poverty is no longer the defining challenge. Accordingly, India has new problems to solve: Improving livelihoods, productivity and quality of life for a rapidly aspirational population.
But unlike China’s rise in the early 2000s, India must grow in a fragmenting global order where supply chains are political, technology is balkanising, and globalisation is in retreat.
In Capital Calculus‘ special first episode of 2026, StratNewsGlobal.Tech spoke to Dr. Rajiv Kumar, former Vice-Chairman of NITI Aayog, to unpack:
- What defines the “New India”
- How development must evolve beyond poverty reduction
- The jobs and productivity challenge
- Social protection for a middle-income society
- India’s export strategy in a de-globalising world
- The role of states in the next wave of reforms
- India’s biggest constraints — and its biggest opportunities
- The priorities for the upcoming Union Budget.
In several ways, this conversation sets the stage for India’s economic trajectory in 2026 and beyond.
Russia Says 24 Killed in New Year’s Eve Drone Strike in Kherson Region
Russia accused Ukraine on Thursday of killing at least 24 people, including a child, in a drone strike that hit a hotel and café where civilians were celebrating New Year’s Eve in the Russian-controlled part of Ukraine’s southern Kherson region.
Moscow Labels Attack a ‘War Crime’
Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed governor of Kherson, said three Ukrainian drones struck a gathering site in the coastal village of Khorly, calling it a “deliberate strike” on civilians. He claimed many victims were burnt alive as fire engulfed the building.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said preliminary information indicated that 24 people, among them one child, were killed and around 50 others injured, including six minors. The ministry called the incident “a war crime,” asserting that the attack had been “planned in advance” and that drones had “deliberately targeted areas where civilians had gathered to celebrate New Year’s Eve.”
Reuters was unable to verify the Russian claims or photographs released by Saldo’s office showing the alleged aftermath. Images reviewed by Reuters showed a burnt building, apparent blood stains on the ground, and at least one body covered with a white sheet.
Blame and Condemnation
Ukraine’s military, which has repeatedly accused Russia of killing civilians in missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused Ukraine’s Western allies of bearing responsibility for the alleged strike. Senior Russian officials, including the speakers of both chambers of parliament, condemned Kyiv and described the incident as an act of terrorism.
“The attack was carried out with Western-supplied equipment and intelligence,” Zakharova said on Telegram, arguing that Ukraine’s backers shared blame for what she called “a barbaric crime.”
Conflict Background
Kherson is one of four regions along with Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia that Russia claimed to have annexed in 2022. Ukraine and most Western nations have rejected those claims as illegal, insisting the territories remain part of sovereign Ukrainian land.
The alleged strike comes amid a period of intensified drone warfare between the two countries. Both sides have targeted infrastructure and settlements far behind the front lines, often trading accusations over attacks that cause civilian casualties.
If confirmed, the incident in Khorly would be one of the deadliest civilian losses reported in Russian-controlled territory in recent months, further fuelling recriminations as the war approaches its third year.
with inputs from Reuters