China is going to emerge as the “biggest beneficiary” from the Iran war, warned Ausaf Sayeed, former diplomat who served as India’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia (2019 – 2022) and Yemen (2010 – 2013).
At a panel discussion in Delhi on India and West Asia in the context of the Iran war, Sayeed pointed out that China has played its cards carefully.
A Pentagon report has detailed that China, while describing the war as illegal, has remained in touch with the US; it has shored up Iran’s ordnance stockpile while also relaying satellite information on US moves in contested Gulf waters, and has strengthened ties with Gulf states hit by Iran, helping them defend their skies.
It underscores a major point, said Ambassador Sayeed, “This is an imposed war, an unnecessary war, like in the case of the Iraq War … The war was imposed on Iran at a time when talks were already going on between the United States and Iran through the mediation of Oman.”
He down played the issue of Pakistan mediating to end the war. Saudi Arabia and Iran remain in direct communication. It will be incorrect to assume that these two countries, which are neighbours in the Persian Gulf, are not on talking terms since the war began. As for India, it has never done mediation in any kind of conflict since independence in 1947.
“We don’t have a history of mediation, so the question of whether India had mediated or not does not arise as we do not have that aspect in our foreign policy. But I can say, there had been mid-course corrections in our foreign policy during the war,” he said. He pointed out that even China does not get involved in political mediation.
“India has to deal with Iran as a civilisational power” he argued.
India must build on the thousands of years of history it shares with Iran. It may not like the Islamic regime but Iran is the gateway to Central Asia. It’s oil and gas will help India diversify its energy dependences, thereby shoring up strategic autonomy. It will also enable India to balance competing interests in West Asia, such as the Gulf Arab states and of course Israel.
“India has a unique position in the entire region. But, we need to navigate carefully and be in a position to see how this is being driven rather than watching from a distance,” he said.
