With nine days to go, the clock is ticking on the Bangladesh elections, seen as perhaps the most consequential in recent history. While there are broader concerns about the result producing a Jamaat victory, that could fundamentally alter the country’s trajectory, there is a more immediate concern: this is the referendum which will be held on the same day as the elections on Feb 12.
“The bigger concern for Bangladesh and also for India is the referendum, not so much the parliamentary election itself”, says Deep Halder, an author and an expert on Bangladesh.
“We are so focused on the electoral battle that we risk missing the constitutional equations that will rewrite the nation’s rule book for generations to come,” warned Zakir Kibria, writer and policy analyst, in an article in The Daily Star.
In a word, a majority “yes” vote in the referendum will reinstate a neutral caretaker government that will hold elections, establish a 100-seat upper house of parliament, two-term limits on the prime minister, judicial independence, and so on.
While those changes appear reasonable, Kibria’s point is that the messaging from the government is clear; it is demanding a “yes” vote for all the reforms.
“When the state campaigns for a specific result, the process risks becoming less about deliberative choice and more about the administration of a foretold conclusion,” Kibria warned.
Halder also wonders, “Why should an interim government agency lobby for a year, asking for a ‘yes’ vote, which is not the mandate?”
But questioning the legitimacy of the interim government is problematic. Smruti Pattanaik, who tracks Bangladesh closely at the Institute of Defence Studies & Analysis, argues that “The current regime’s existence is not part of the Bangladeshi constitution. But since the government took over, it has been seen as legitimate by the people of Bangladesh.”
In fact, she argues, the interim regime is modeling the reforms as if it were a kind of foolproof method of preventing autocracy in Bangladesh.
Haider points to something more concerning: ”Some of the reforms are necessary, but some things that are being talked about in the referendum mean that the president will have more power. The word on the street is that Yunus, the current Chief Interim Advisor of Bangladesh, is already lobbying for this role.”
Bangladesh is not new to referendums. There was one in 1977, another in 1985. But the sense is this regime has gone out on a limb on reforms, for reasons that could be suspect.
Haider believes that “Although there have been major changes to the Constitution before, nobody has exceeded that brief like this interim government has. That’s the contention, and there is this crying need for it to somehow stick on to power or keep themselves relevant even after an election.”
Bangladeshis must gamble on whether to vote yes or no, or just focus on electing a government that can decide on the reforms later. But the first challenge for the new government would be to study the referendum and the vote. If it fails to do so within 6-9 months, Pattanaik warns, the referendum will be deemed accepted!
