The Myanmar army has suffered enormous reverses in recent months with rebel groups gaining ground. But the army still controls bulk of the country and it remains to be seen if it can reverse the tide and regain the initiative. One point is clear: junta chief Gen Ming Aung Hlaing miscalculated when he thought the Russians would bail him out after his 2021 coup, with weapons and money. The Ukraine war started and the Russians walked away leaving the general in the lurch.
In this interview on The Gist, Soe Myint, Editor of Mizzima News which operates in the rebel-held areas of Myanmar, says the junta’s successive battlefield defeats reflect how the ethnic Bamar community has also turned against it. The Bamars are the dominant community in the country and make up a substantial portion of the army.
The community, especially the young, saw hope in growing up in a democratic dispensation but that was belied by Gen Min Aung Hlaing’s coup. That and the corruption that permeates the military has turned the community against it. The junta has started forcible conscription in an effort to boost its numbers but it’s not clear how successful they will be.
The rebel groups have a common aim, to erase the junta from Myanmar. They are coordinating their operations on the battlefield and have been working on supply chains and communications. There is talk of surrounding the junta-held capital of Nay Pyt Thaw and perhaps starving its inhabitants into submission and surrender but for that adequate forces have to be marshalled.
The rebels also speak of democracy, of having a loose federation where they could have their say and also preserve their identity and customs. They would like a dialogue with India on some of these issues but for now, India is holding back although the National Unity Government has a representative office in Delhi.
