Iran and the United States are edging closer to military confrontation as prospects for a diplomatic resolution to their dispute over Tehran’s nuclear programme diminish, according to officials from both countries and diplomats in the Gulf and Europe.
Iran’s Gulf neighbours and its enemy Israel now consider a conflict to be more likely than a settlement, these sources say, with Washington building up one of its biggest military deployments in the region since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Israel’s government believes Tehran and Washington are at an impasse and is making preparations for possible joint military action with the United States, though no decision has been made yet on whether to carry out such an operation, said a source familiar with the planning.
It would be the second time the U.S. and Israel have attacked Iran in less than a year, following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against military and nuclear facilities last June.
Regional officials say oil-producing Gulf countries are preparing for a possible military confrontation that they fear could spin out of control and destabilise the Middle East.
Two Israeli officials told Reuters they believe the gaps between Washington and Tehran are unbridgeable and that the chances of a near‑term military escalation are high.
Some regional officials say Tehran is dangerously miscalculating by holding out for concessions, with U.S. President Donald Trump boxed in by his own military buildup – unable to scale it back without losing face if there is no firm commitment from Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions.
Talks Have Stalled
Two rounds of Iran-U.S. talks have stalled on core issues, from uranium enrichment to missiles and sanctions relief.
When Omani mediators delivered an envelope from the U.S. side containing missile‑related proposals, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi refused even to open it and returned it, a source familiar with the talks said.
After talks in Geneva on Tuesday, Araqchi said the sides had agreed on “guiding principles,” but the White House said there was still distance between them.
Iran is expected to submit a written proposal in the coming days, a U.S. official said, and Araqchi said on Friday he expected to have a draft counterproposal ready within days.
But Trump, who has sent aircraft carriers, warships and jets to the Middle East, warned Iran on Thursday it must make a deal over its nuclear program or “really bad things” will happen.
He appeared to set a deadline of 10 to 15 days, drawing a threat from Tehran to retaliate against U.S. bases in the region if attacked. The rising tensions have pushed up oil prices.
U.S. officials say Trump has yet to make up his mind about using military force although he acknowledged on Friday that he could order a limited strike to try to force Iran into a deal.
The possible timing of an attack is unclear. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 28 to discuss Iran. A senior U.S. official said it would be mid-March before all U.S. forces were in place.
(With inputs from Reuters)
