The twin trade agreements that India has concluded with the European Union and the United States are best understood not as parallel commercial exercises, but as two very different instruments serving distinct strategic purposes, argues Vienna-based geopolitical strategist Velina Tchakarova.
Speaking on the significance of what she calls the “mother of all deals” between India and the European Union, Tchakarova notes that Brussels has long defined itself as a global power rooted in rules, standards and regulatory frameworks. For such an actor, deepening free trade through comprehensive agreements is not optional but central to its identity. Negotiations with India, she recalls, have stretched over years and were even suspended at one stage due to “unbridgeable differences.” The relaunch of talks in 2022 reflected a mutual reassessment: Europe recognised India’s growing economic and geopolitical weight, while New Delhi saw value in anchoring itself more firmly to the world’s largest common market.
Crucially, Tchakarova emphasises that the EU–India agreement is still subject to ratification across member states, but she expects few obstacles. Unlike Europe’s troubled Mercosur deal with Latin America, sensitive agricultural sectors have been excluded from the India pact, removing a major source of political resistance. The payoff, she argues, is substantial: near-total tariff removal, liberalisation of services, stronger investment protection and expanded technological, industrial and defence cooperation. For India, access to a 27-nation common market is not symbolic—it is a growth accelerator.
By contrast, the India–US trade arrangement is “much more geopolitical than economic,” according to Tchakarova. While the United States deal does include practical cooperation on semiconductors, defence supply chains, critical minerals and energy diversification, its primary function is signalling. Washington wants to demonstrate that India is being drawn closer into an American strategic orbit amid intensifying competition with China.
India, however, resists being placed into any single geopolitical box. Tchakarova underscores New Delhi’s long tradition of strategic autonomy, now amplified by scale. India is no longer just another non-aligned state; it is a system-shaping actor with multiple hedging options. That autonomy has come at a cost—seen in US tariff pressure linked to Russian oil purchases—but India has absorbed these frictions to preserve policy freedom.
The two trade deals therefore serve complementary but different purposes. The EU agreement embeds India deeper into global trade architecture and promises long-term economic integration. The US deal supports faster technological catch-up and sends a geopolitical message in the context of a new Cold War-style rivalry.
Taken together, Tchakarova suggests, they reflect a confident India using economic interdependence as a tool of strategic flexibility—expanding partnerships in all directions while keeping ultimate control firmly in its own hands. Watch the full interview to get a Western perspective from an astute geopolitical observer.
