Bangladesh is going through a volatile, unpredictable yet consequential period of its history. Post- Sheikh Hasina’s ouster in 2024, the political terrain has fundamentally changed.
Rising Social Tensions & Violence
Large-scale protests and clashes in urban centres have occurred repeatedly, especially after killings of political activists and youth leaders. There are communal violence concerns, particularly against Hindus and other minorities, intensifying political grievances. Isolated violent incidents, including clashes in Gopalganj, and attacks on security installations signal law-and-order stress. The police are overstretched and the Army is currently viewed as a neutral stabiliser and reluctant enforcer. Add to it low-level Islamist militant regrouping.
Geopolitical Fallout
Fishing in troubled waters is the U.S. and its Western partners to ensure the future Bangladesh dispensation remains favourable to them or at worst neutral. There is talk of defence engagement between Pakistan and Bangladesh, including weapons deals. India is perceived as hostile. To exacerbate the situation, China and Pakistan see this as a golden opportunity to create security and geopolitical challenges for India. Domestic polarisation will not remain concentrated politically but will have significant societal and communal dimensions.
The extreme uncertainty and volatile mix of actors and pressures, produces several broad plausible scenarios over the next few months.
Scenario A: Orderly Polls, Limited Violence (Low-Medium Risk)
Conditions
• Poll date stays Feb-March with basic security apparatus deployed
• Parties agree to minimal electoral competition
• Interim government eases restrictions selectively
Probable Outcomes
• Turnout is modest, dominated by BNP and aligned networks. Jamaat is kept out of holding power
• International observers attend but in marginal numbers
• Some protest clusters occur but large-scale violence is avoided
• Army publicly reiterates neutrality and constitutional role
Impact
• Political pressure on minorities may persist. Short-term stability but long-term uncertainty likely
• India can initiate channels for engagement with the newly elected govt
Scenario B: Escalated Instability/Partial Breakdown (High Risk)
Conditions
• Significant sections of the security apparatus split in loyalty
• Armed radical formations expand operations
• External interference by transnational extremist networks increases
Probable Outcome
• Large urban violence, targeted communal conflict
• Government control weakens in certain regions, especially rural areas
• Forces like Jamaat-e-Islami might strengthen if mainstream parties fracture
Impact
• The Bangladesh Army would be forced to intervene, initially to bring the critical public order situation into the law and order domain. This could be exploited by BJI and other fringe groups proclaiming partisan behaviour, further aggravating an already volatile situation
• Mass displacement into India’s North East and border states
• Heightened security challenges along the international border
Scenario C: Disputed Election & Post-Poll Turmoil (Medium-High Risk)
Conditions
• Major political groups, especially the Awami League and NCP sympathisers, denounce the vote as illegitimate
• Boycotts and protest actions intensify around polling
• Allegations of manipulation dominate discourse
• Awami League supporters, student groups and civil society reject outcome
• Months of protests, hartals and urban unrest follow
• Security forces oscillate between repression and restraint
Why This Is Most Likely
• Bangladesh’s historical pattern (1996, 2014) indicates that this scenario is most likely to be played out
• Elections without broad consent of the majority of population
• Political culture favours street pressure over institutional flexibility and compromise
• Rising communal attacks and deaths add to grievances
• Strong opposition assertion against election mechanics points in this direction
Probable Outcomes
• Protest met with heavy security clampdown. Army, even if reluctant, would be forced to intervene over time
• Violence in Dhaka and secondary cities disrupts the electoral process
• Social media, disinformation campaigns fuel further polarisation
Impact
• Doubt over election legitimacy nationally and internationally; period of political instability
• While a civil war may not break out, it would result in chronic instability
• This could possibly be the most operationally taxing scenario for India
Scenario D: Election Delay/Emergency Political Arrangement
There is a distinct probability that elections are postponed due to security concerns, political deadlock or even judicial or constitutional intervention. The ‘caretaker government’ may also discreetly encourage this option. The army may acquiesce as long as there is no major civil disturbance. India will have to contend with long-term unpredictability and inability to deal with a recognised government, leading to diplomatic ambiguity and limbo, which is never a good idea with an immediate volatile (currently unfriendly) neighbour.
Why This Remains Possible
• Precedence exists (2007–08)
• Elites may prefer delay over de-legitimised polls
• Fear of uncontrollable violence
Multi-Dimensional Impact On India
Bangladesh’s trajectory directly affects India’s strategic, security, economic and social interests.
Security & Border Management
India shares a long, porous border (4096.7 km) with Bangladesh. Instability there can result in:
• Persistent border management stress
• Anti-India rhetoric by political actors and parties reaching a crescendo
• Infiltration of extremist groups and militants across the boundary; aided and abetted by inimical neighbours
• Increased smuggling, human trafficking and illegal crossings
• Pressure on India’s border states—particularly West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura—for managing internal fault lines, resources, policing and governance
Economic & Connectivity Verticals
Prior to the current turbulence, India-Bangladesh cooperation yielded expanded trade links, energy agreements and connectivity projects. However:
• Key connectivity projects are stalled or under review
• Trans-shipment and logistics services crucial to India’s Northeast are jeopardised
• Disruptions in bilateral commerce could hurt India’s border economies
How Should India Respond
India’s approach should be mature, multi-layered, calibrated and long-term rather than reactive or purely transactional.
Strengthening Border Security & Intelligence Cooperation
Irrespective of which political grouping assumes power in Dhaka, the following measures are a must:
• Enhance border infrastructure (fencing completion, tech-enabled surveillance, riverine monitoring), even in hinterland of border states
• Bolster BSF and state police coordination along the border
• Increase intelligence sharing to detect cross-border threats early
Nuanced Diplomatic & Political Engagement
India’s engagement should emphasise democracy, stability and rule of law, not only immediate geopolitical preferences. India should adopt a pragmatic diplomatic approach:
- Support credibly structured, inclusive elections in Bangladesh through multilateral engagement
- Maintain open channels with mainstream parties (BNP, moderate factions, civil society) and not just state actors
- Encourage institutional strengthening; judiciary, legislative independence, election credibility to reduce jingoism and rise of Islamic fundamentalism
Economic And Connectivity Linkages
Sustaining economic and historic linkages could be the most pivotal and crucial step. Economic interdependence will anchor stability and mutual growth.
- Push for revival of stalled connectivity projects and border trade facilitation
- Use economic incentives to promote socio-economic stability in Bangladesh’s border districts
- Collaborate on multi-domain initiatives in energy, digital and climate-resilience sectors
Regional Multilateral Forums
India should work through SAARC, BIMSTEC and other multi-national-lateral forums to foster better relations and collective security. This reduces bilateral burdens and brings in broader legitimacy. It can approach the UN and global powers to ensure protection of minorities. Also, it can take a clear firm stand on minorities which it is already doing.
Human Rights & Advocation of Communal Harmony
India should advocate minority protection in Bangladesh and work with the new government towards law enforcement capacity building to prevent communal violence. Concurrently, it should support civil society and media freedom while countering hate speech and misinformation across borders. And at the same time ensure that it is not perceived as interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs.
Conclusion
The lead-up to the elections will be pivotal. The trajectory of political volatility, social tensions, institutional legitimacy and relations with India will shape domestic stability in Bangladesh. External influence, especially by China and Pakistan, will also be a factor. These, in turn, will dictate the regional geopolitical balance and India’s security environment. The stakes are incredibly high. India’s strategy must combine realpolitik, proactive diplomacy, calibrated security preparedness and long-term engagement.
(The author is a former Director General (Military Operations) of India. Views expressed in this article are personal)
