Afghan Taliban Has Pakistan In Knots
The Pakistani security establishment has long touted its so-called close links with the Afghan Taliban. At times it has boasted of wielding influence over the latter. When the Afghan Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in 2021, the Pakistani military rejoiced.
Then ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed travelled to Kabul. Asked by journalists about what would now happen, he said with a smile: “don’t worry, everything will be okay”.
The Pakistanis felt they had gained strategic depth in Afghanistan and had ousted India from there. Some thought that the Pakistani military would call the shots since the Afghan Taliban was back.
Pakistan sees a natural ally in the Afghan Taliban. It has so often provided moral and material support to the Taliban fighters. And when the Taliban would earlier feel the heat of the U.S.-led forces, they would get sanctuary in Pakistan.
Things didn’t quite move according to Pakistani calculations. The Afghan Taliban have refused to be dictated by anyone. Worse, they’ve asserted themselves like never before. Afghan-Pakistan border skirmishes have increased, the Afghan Taliban have refused to heed the Durand Line just like in their earlier avatar. It’s a border that divides Pashtuns on both sides and is a highly emotive issue in Afghanistan.
After the Taliban took over, there has been a spate of terror attacks in Pakistan by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Most of these have targeted security officials in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The TTP has close ideological affinities with the Afghan Taliban.
Afghan Taliban A Source Of Inspiration For TTP
Pakistan’s duplicitous policies of running with the hare and hunting with the hound has come back to bite it in a long way, says Ramanathan Kumar, a former Indian Intelligence Officer.
Pakistan covertly brought the Afghan Taliban back to power, trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the U.S and the international community. It did succeed in having its supposed clients back in power, he added.
“The TTP clearly wants to do inside Pakistan what the Afghan Taliban have done in Afghanistan. They have, in fact, been emboldened by the success of the Taliban in Afghanistan. And they want to now recreate, a so-called Islamic caliphate or Sharia rule in Pakistan, which I think is not palatable to the Pakistani Army.”
The Pakistani establishment’s objective all along was to make sure that they eliminate all traces of Indian influence in Afghanistan. But instead of that, they have suicide terrorism in a big way in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and in Balochistan, says Kumar.
Afghan Taliban Returning The Favour
But did Pakistan not anticipate a situation where the TTP would get emboldened?
The Pakistanis were focused on the U.S. withdrawal and subsequently the Taliban coming to power, says Shalini Chawla, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies.
“The TTP was very entrenched with the Taliban in fighting foreign forces and also the Afghan forces. That’s one of the reasons why the Afghan Taliban do not want to put any pressure on TTP because they treat them as so-called guests under the Pashtun culture. And also they want to return that favour by not questioning them.”
The Pakistani strategic objectives included controlling Pashtun nationalism, having India out of Afghanistan and some kind of control on the Durand Line on their terms and conditions. None of those strategic objectives were achieved, adds Chawla.
An Assertive Afghan Taliban
The Pakistan military thought the Afghan Taliban will be under their complete control but that did not happen. After the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, the Imran Khan-led government in Islamabad started negotiating with the TTP. There was also release of the TTP prisoners at that time. That has also added to the intense posture that we see in the TTP, says Chawla.
