The next U.S. administration may make an effort to ease tensions with Moscow but Western sanctions are unlikely to be lifted any time soon, VTB told Reuters.
Kostin, one of Russia’s most influential bankers and a former diplomat who served in Australia and Britain, said he believed U.S. President-elect Donald Trump would make a genuine effort to end the conflict in Ukraine, which will be close to entering its fourth year when he takes office for a second time in January.
“Considering the statements Trump made during his election campaign, I believe that he will certainly try to make efforts to resolve the Ukrainian war. But will an agreement be reached?,” Kostin said from his office in one of the Moscow City business quarter’s towers, stressing that any peace settlement should be for the long-term.
Powerful Anti-Russian ‘Vector’ In US
Trump has pledged to end the conflict in Ukraine quickly, in part because he does not want the United States to pay to defend the country.
However, Kostin, who was placed under U.S. sanctions himself during Trump’s first term as President, said he did not believe sanctions against Moscow would be lifted quickly as there was a powerful anti-Russian “vector” in the U.S. establishment.
“A good example is the Jackson-Vanik amendment. It was enacted against the USSR, and it was only repealed in 2012,” Kostin said, referring to a Cold-War era law linking trade relations with the Soviet Union to the rights of religious minorities to emigrate.
A powerful insider who regularly meets with President Vladimir Putin, Kostin said that his own views on the conflict in Ukraine have changed since February 2022 and he now believed that Moscow “did not have much of a choice”.
Blocked Reserves Gone
Kostin, whose bank once had a substantial presence in Ukraine, said he believed that Russia’s reserves that were frozen in the West after the start of the conflict would not be returned.
Western countries blocked around $300 billion worth of sovereign Russian assets, with the G7 group and the European Union agreeing earlier this year to use the interest they generated to aid Ukraine’s defence. Russia has vowed legal action.
“In the West, they say, let’s pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine from the reserves. And they will draw up such a bill that even the reserves will not be enough,” Kostin predicted.
“Russia will never again keep its money in U.S. Treasuries. I’m sure of it. Anywhere, but not there.”
Speaking ahead of the start of VTB’s annual investment forum this week where most participants will come from China, the Middle East and India, Kostin said the “dozens” of countries willing to work with Moscow showed that Western sanctions were not working, also pointing to the BRICS group summit which was held in Russia in October.
(With inputs from Reuters)
