Even President Anura Kumara Dissanayake was not expecting the 2/3 majority that the National People’s Power got in the just concluded snap Parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka, the first time a single party has done so under the Proportional Representation system in the country.
It is also probably the first time that a Marxist government has come to power in a country following totally free and fair elections.
“While there have been Marxist governments in states like Kerala and West Bengal in your country, on a national level, yes, this is a big deal,” says Nilanthan Niruthan, Director of the Centre for Law and Security Studies and a Visiting Instructor at the National Defence College in Sri Lanka.
“In fact, you had the president even mentioning in a speech a few days ago that a two thirds majority would be dangerous for a country, and that governments in the past have used it to push through unpopular reforms and things like that. And lo and behold, we find out today that they themselves have a two thirds majority,” he said. “Also, even by Sri Lankan standards, he is the first leader to get the vote of both the North and the South at the same time,” adds Niruthan, often described as one of the finest foreign and strategic affairs analysts not just in the subcontinent, but across Asia and the world.
“So after all these decades of the North and the South, the squabbling with wars and insurgencies and all that, it’s quite ironic that it’s a Marxist who’s managed to be the common banner that unites the two,” he noted.
However, “I think most people who follow Sri Lankan politics at the moment understand that this is not a vote for Marxist rule. And they understand that he’s not a textbook Marxist who’s come here to implement Marxist policies,” adds Niruthan.
“The vote for him (Dissanayake) is more a vote of both hope and a hope for the future. And anger for the past. So that’s certainly how it needs to be interpreted. And to be fair, most people who’ve been observing Sri Lankan politics over the last few months, I think they understand that. I think they quite clearly understand that simply painting him as a conventional Marxist, would be factually incorrect,” he says.
“In that sense, it’s very similar to what we would call a populist election. I suppose so many of the things that the people want in terms of, wiping the slate clean, wanting the state to not have an iron hold over how the day to day is of the common citizens goal in terms of dynastic politics and all that.”
In a wide ranging discussion on The Gist, which went beyond just the domestic implications of the elections, Niruthan stressed that the massive mandate also came with a lot of expectations.
The primary challenge that the new parliament faces is “clearly going to be economic in nature, because as we see with elections all over the world right now, economics is one of the major aspirations of any voter in any part of the world, because of the major challenges in the world economy at the moment,” he said.
“One of the major problems that we have is our inability to generate a lot of income as an economy, which means that when 2027 comes and we need to pay back those (IMF) loans, we’re going to be in trouble again,” he warned. “And that is where a sharp foreign policy comes in.”
However, “Sri Lanka has this non-alignment obsession. And if we continue to follow a hedging or a non-alignment strategy, I don’t think that will reap us any real economic benefits,” he said.
“I would be far more comfortable, even though it would be more challenging politically, with following a policy of alignment, but it’s not my job to determine which nation the country needs to be aligned to align with,” he said.
“And I think the history of Asia in the 20th and 21st century clearly shows that for small nations like us, having a alignment is what gives you benefits in the long run. So that’s where I hope the government will go. But unfortunately, there’s a huge uphill journey that any political party here will have to partake in if they want to align,” he felt.
The conversation then moved on to what the Trump Presidency meant for Sri Lanka and the region.
According to him, Sri lanka would face indirect effects of the change in the White House. “So if we were to just briefly look at the South Asian picture, at the moment, I would say we have Bangladesh, India and Pakistan and to a certain extent Afghanistan are directly impacted by Trump’s presidency because he has very direct positions regarding these countries.”
To understand more about Sri Lanka’s world view from an incisive and extremely erudite analyst known to speak his mind, watch the full interview.
