Former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan Sharat Sabharwal believes Pakistan is confronting one of its most difficult periods in recent history, but cautions against assuming the country is on the verge of disintegration. Instead, he argues that today’s turmoil is the latest manifestation of structural weaknesses that have troubled Pakistan since its creation.
Speaking to The Gist, Sabharwal said Pakistan’s economic troubles, ethnic tensions, religious extremism and governance failures have repeatedly produced periods of severe instability. While the current unrest stretches from Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, he noted that Pakistan has weathered comparable crises before, including the insurgencies of earlier decades, widespread terrorism in the late 2000s and, ultimately, the loss of East Pakistan in 1971.
On Balochistan, Sabharwal said declarations of independence should not be mistaken for evidence that Pakistan is about to lose control of the province. However, he stressed that the insurgency has evolved significantly. Unlike earlier tribal-led movements, today’s rebellion is increasingly driven by educated and politically conscious youth who have combined sophisticated military tactics with an effective information campaign.
According to Sabharwal, the deeper issue lies in decades of political marginalisation and economic exploitation. He pointed to the unequal distribution of benefits from Balochistan’s natural resources, including gas reserves, mining projects and Gwadar Port, arguing that local communities have seen little economic gain while outsiders have benefited disproportionately. Similar grievances, he said, exist in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, where constitutional ambiguity and centralised control have fuelled growing resentment.
“The basic grievances are not addressed,” Sabharwal observed, arguing that the Pakistani establishment has consistently relied on coercion rather than political accommodation. “All that the people face is strong-arm tactics by the Pakistan Army.”
He believes Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir remains firmly in control despite political criticism and internal pressures. However, Sabharwal warned that public resentment continues to simmer beneath the surface and could become more consequential if the army’s authority weakens in the future.
For India, Sabharwal’s advice is straightforward. Pakistan’s internal crises and its renewed engagement with the United States could encourage adventurism towards India, as has happened during previous periods of close US-Pakistan ties. While he stopped short of predicting any immediate escalation, he said India should remain alert against possible miscalculations.
