A 60-day Iran-US ceasefire has been announced, but Dr Seyed Emamian of Tehran University tells StratNews Global that Iran is approaching it with deep distrust, wary of Israeli sabotage, insistent that Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz remain non-negotiable, and bracing for an even tougher 60 days of talks on sanctions, frozen assets, and compensation ahead of the official signing in Geneva on June 19.
A Ceasefire Built on Deep Distrust
After months of speculation, a 60-day Iran-US ceasefire has finally been confirmed, but according to Dr Seyed Emamian, Assistant Professor at Tehran Polytechnic University and co-founder of Iran’s Governance and Policy think tank, nobody in Tehran is celebrating yet. Speaking to Ketki Angre on StratNews Global, Emamian called the announcement significant but fragile, shaped by ‘a very deep distrust’ of President Trump after what he described as repeated diplomatic betrayals during the war that began on February 28.
For Iran, the first win was structural: separating the ceasefire from the nuclear conversation. “There is no linkage between the war and nuclear concessions,” Dr. Emamian said. Iran insisted on ending hostilities first, and negotiating the harder issues in a second phase.
The Israel Factor: “Tail Wagging the Dog”
The obvious question is where is Israel in this deal? Dr. Emamian invoked the old idiom to describe US-Israel dynamics, arguing that the “Israeli lobby” has repeatedly “hijacked” Trump’s Iran policy, including sabotaging close-to-done deals with strikes, such as the attack on Beirut during the April ceasefire that saw “more than 200 attacks in ten minutes.”
He pointed to Trump’s reported phone call with the New York Times, where the president called Netanyahu “a difficult man” and was reportedly furious about a strike on his birthday, as evidence of a deeper rift, even as Trump separately claimed Netanyahu should be “thankful” to him.
Iran, Dr. Emamian said, doesn’t view Israel as a party to any deal at all: “Iran doesn’t deal with Israel… it doesn’t have any political recognition of it as an occupied political project.” For Tehran, Trump alone holds “ultimate responsibility” for restraining Netanyahu.
Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz
Two issues, Emamian said, are non-negotiable for Iran. First, the ceasefire must be inclusive of Lebanon, with a “very clear timeframe for withdrawal from the south.” Second, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, but not to the old status quo. Iran intends to retain “sovereign geopolitical leverage” over the strait, regulating both military and commercial passage, while still guaranteeing safe transit. “It’s not going to blockade free passage,” he clarified, “but it would be Iranian responsibility to make sure everyone… that the passage is always safe.”
Harder Negotiation Await Once Deal is Signed
The harder negotiations, nuclear enrichment rights, roughly $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and the lifting of primary and secondary sanctions, are still ahead. Emamian noted a possible bright spot: Trump has reportedly signalled recognition of Iran’s right to low-grade civilian enrichment. Compensation is also on the table, with figures around $300 billion floated for damages from the war, payable by the US, Gulf allies, and Western firms investing in Iran. Regardless of the term used for this compensation, Dr Emamian believes Iran will need to see some form of payment to move forward.
Cautious Optimism, Pakistan and Qatar’s Role
Emamian credited Pakistan and Qatar as decisive mediators in brokering the deal, alongside Gulf states whose economies – Dubai’s property market and Qatar’s LNG sector among them – were badly hit by the war. His closing message was ‘cautious optimism’. Iran has been burned by US negotiations twice before, and the real test begins after the signing in Geneva on June 19.
