The more things change in Myanmar, the more they remain the same; Former junta leader Gen Min Aung Hlaing has shed his uniform to take over as the new president after an election widely seen as a sham. The new man in charge of the military is Hlaing’s former spymaster and head of military intelligence Gen Ye Win Oo.
As Khriezo Yhome, Myanmar scholar and Editor at the Asian Confluence think tank in Shillong, told Stratnewsglobal on The Gist, “Hlaing (the President) wants to have more power in terms of controlling the system and institutions. It is one of his personal ambitions.”
Hence, his presidency hasn’t resolved the fundamental conflict in Myanmar.
“The new leadership under Hlaing and Ye Win will continue to consolidate their hold over some of the urban areas, which they still have. Today, the military controls about 20 to 25% of the total territory. Once they consolidate, they will try to regain lost ground in the ethnic areas,” he said.
This election may have been intended to give him legitimacy but ASEAN will not give him that.
Nevertheless, Hlaing as president may move to free some prisoners, Yhome says, hinting that Suu Kyi may be released. But his real challenge will be the economy. His coup effectively sabotaged Myanmar’s economic stability and steady growth under Suu Kyi.
“Because of the political crisis there, there have been no new investments or aid from Japan and some of the ASEAN countries. Most friends of Myanmar and partners will take a while to decide whether to come back after the elections there, until the situation stabilises. And that’s difficult to imagine at the moment,” Yhome said.
As far as India is concerned, Myanmar is critical as the bridge to ASEAN.
“Unless India or China play a bigger role, the West is unlikely to change its position,” says Yhome. Currently, India aligns with ASEAN’s position, but Delhi could play a role in stabilising the country by working together with Japan and, of course, ASEAN. Ideally, a platform can be created for dialogue between the opposition forces and the regime. He believes India is best-suited for this role as a neighbour.
Watch the conversation with Khriezo Yhome only on StratNewsGlobal.
