In nine months the India’s treaty with Bangladesh on sharing Ganga waters will expire. There is no provision in the treaty for renewal, so a new treaty has to be negotiated. Recent articles in the Bangladesh media suggest a campaign is underway to shape the country’s position in the negotiations and that basically boils down to getting more water.
“Bangladesh should declare the 1996 Ganges Water Treaty obsolete before negotiations formally begin,” urged the Daily Star, “because the alternative is negotiating from a position of considerable weakness as India demands more water from rivers that climate change has already dried up.”
In an article in TheIndiaForum.com, Tawfique Haq, Director of the South Asian Institute of Policy & Governance in Dhaka, he alleged that “During the dry season, India is required by the rules of the treaty to provide Bangladesh with a specific amount of water every ten days. India frequently denies Bangladesh its fair share of water during the period between 11 March and 10 May, when both countries’ water demand is at peak.
“Additionally, by releasing more water than is required during its remaining water-sharing seasons, India can declare itself in compliance with the agreement virtually any year.”
He claimed that water specialists have reviewed the Ganga water sharing from 1997 to 2016 and discovered that Bangladesh did not receive its share during most of the crucial dry times, contrary to the treaty provisions.
India has its share of concerns too. Water specialist Uttam Sinha of the IDSA warned that “Water is being severely impacted by population increase and economic growth. Together they are extracting and polluting it faster than it can be replenished.
“The ever-expanding gap between demand (in terms of growing population and economy) and supply (in terms of availability) will potentially make water a contested issue. Since disputes over water are inevitable understanding the processes of resolution and framing new mechanisms and approaches becomes a necessity.”
Bangladesh seems to have decided that blackmail is the way foward and has floated a China idea that could cost as much as $1 billion.
Briefly, it is about “training” the river to control floods, provide for irrrigation, ensure embankments and to top it all, China has proposed that POWERCHINA should get the contract. Clearly China is many steps ahead in this game.
For India this is not just a negotiation, it is about ensuring states like West Bengal are on board when negotiations get difficult. West Bengal has in the past blocked water sharing negotiations with Bangladesh for fear of its impact on its own population.
But China’s machinations suggest the project will help it move closer to India’s sensitive Siliguri Corridor which links northeastern states with the rest of the mainland. That will add the element of distrust when the talks start.
It’s also important to note that these are the first negotiations India will have with the newly elected BNP government of Tarique Rahman. Will he use the talks to play the China card or some other card? Or will he see in the talks an opportunity to get the best deal for his country?
